新消费估值体系抬升，出口链关税缓和预期强化 [Table_Industry] 轻工制造 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 轻工制造 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 姜文镪 新消费行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524120004 邮 箱： jiangwenqiang@cindasc.com 骆峥 新消费行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525020001 邮 箱： luozheng1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 新消费估值体系抬升，出口链关税缓和预期强 化 行业研究 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 消费：布鲁可发布变形金刚等新品，卡游推出 EVA 卡牌，润本山姆渠 道增量显著。本周布鲁可发布变形金刚星辰版第 3 弹，创新 ...

证监会印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 —— 量化市场追踪周报（2025W18-19） [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 金工研究 [Table_ReportType] 金工定期报告 [Table_Author] 于明明 金融工程与金融产品 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521070001 联系电话：+86 18616021459 邮 箱：yumingming@cindasc.com 吴彦锦 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523090002 联系电话：+86 18616819227 邮 箱：wuyanjin@cindasc.com 周君睿 金融工程与金融产品 分析师 执业编号：S1500523110005 联系电话：+86 19821223545 邮 箱：zhoujunrui@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 量化市场追踪周报(2025W18-19)：证监会印发 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》 [Table_ReportDate] ...

AI 扩散规则或被取消，产业链相关公司有望修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [行业周报 Table_ReportType] | [Table_StockAndRank] 电子 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 莫文宇 电子行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522090001 邮 箱：mowenyu@cindasc.com 杨宇轩 电子行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525010001 邮箱：yangyuxuan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] AI 扩散规则或被取消，产业链相关公司有望 修复 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www ...

Market Outlook - The initial bull market's consolidation period is likely to extend due to the complexity of U.S. tariffs, shifting the short-term outlook from optimistic to high-level fluctuations[2] - The current market fluctuation is seen as an extension of the volatility since October 8, 2024, with potential for a policy and capital-driven breakthrough later this year[2] - The tariff impact from April has disrupted the profit expectations for A-shares, necessitating time for digestion, which may limit future upward movements[2] Economic Analysis - The economic conditions during the consolidation phase may be weaker than the lowest points of previous bear markets, but the market is unlikely to revert to a bear state[3] - Historical precedents indicate that prolonged consolidation periods can occur due to new economic pressures, similar to the 2013 liquidity crisis and the early 2020 pandemic[3] - The likelihood of a one-year consolidation period has increased, with a return to a bull market rhythm expected later this year[3] Scenario Projections - **Pessimistic Scenario (Low Probability)**: A sudden, larger shock than the April tariff impact could lead the market back to the lows seen in April[3] - **Neutral Scenario (High Probability)**: Gradual economic impacts from tariffs will lead to 1-2 quarters of narrow fluctuations before a return to a bull market driven by policy and capital inflows[3] - **Optimistic Scenario (Low Probability)**: Successful U.S.-China negotiations leading to significant tariff reductions could prevent further market downturns[3] Risk Factors - Key risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market, significant volatility in U.S. equities, and the potential failure of historical patterns to hold[3]

牛初震荡期可能延长 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | | --- | --- | | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 邮 | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [牛初震荡期 Table_Title] 可能延长 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 核心结论：鉴于美国对等关税的复杂性，我们短期的观点由乐观调整为 高位震荡。从战略上，我们认为这一次震荡是去年 10 月 8 日以来市场 震荡的延伸，震荡后有望在今年晚些时候迎来政策和资金驱动的新的突 破性上涨。战术上，我们认为震荡本质上是对关税冲击后遗症的消化， 4 月关税冲击虽然较难改变牛市大格局，但对居民资金赚钱效应和 A 股 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the weekly market review and the impact of the new regulations issued by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on May 7, 2025, aiming to promote high-quality development in the public fund industry[12][13][14] - The CSRC's new regulations emphasize long-term performance evaluation, floating management fee mechanisms, and strengthening the role of performance benchmarks to shift fund managers' focus from short-term speculation to long-term value investments[13][14] - The report highlights the weekly performance of major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3342 points (+1.92%), Shenzhen Component Index at 10126.83 points (+2.29%), and ChiNext Index at 2011.77 points (+3.27%) during the week of May 5-9, 2025[13][15][16] - The report discusses the allocation trends of active equity funds, showing a slight reduction in average positions to 86.84%, with ordinary stock funds at 89.65%, mixed equity funds at 87.25%, and allocation funds at 84.74%[22][23][24] - Active equity funds demonstrated defensive adjustments and structural shifts, with increased allocations to mid-cap balanced styles and decreased allocations to small-cap growth styles, which still dominate at 48.6%[29][30][31] - Sector-wise, active equity funds increased allocations to industries like computers (+0.71%), media (+0.44%), and automobiles (+0.42%), while reducing allocations to sectors like communication (-0.98%) and national defense (-0.56%)[33][34][35] - The report tracks ETF market trends, noting a net outflow of 83.48 billion yuan from broad-based ETFs, while industry-specific ETFs like TMT recorded net inflows of 25.55 billion yuan[42][43][68] - Newly established funds during the week include 15 domestic funds, with significant issuances like the "Build Trust SSE STAR Board Comprehensive Linkage A" fund, totaling 19.55 billion yuan[72][73][74]

证券研究报告 降息落地后资金利率中枢有望继续向政策利率靠拢 —— 流动性与机构行为周度跟踪 250511 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 歌声ue 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 3降息落地后资金利率中枢有望继续向政策利率靠拢 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 3 ➢ 4 月政府债净融资 7938 亿元，其中国债净融资 2658 亿，地方债净融资 5281 亿元。本周披露的 10Y 附息国债和中央金融机构注资特别国债规模低于预 期，而 63D 贴现国债发行规模略高于预期，我们预计 5 月国债净融资规模约 8600 亿元；同时维持 5 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [12][13] - The coal price is expected to remain weak in May due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but there is a bottom support for prices, and a gradual recovery is anticipated as the peak season approaches [3][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal supply shortages remains unchanged, with a balanced short-term supply and demand but a medium to long-term gap still present [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of May 10, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 635 CNY/ton, down 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] - The international thermal coal price for Newcastle (NEWC5500) is 69.8 USD/ton, down 0.5 USD/ton week-on-week [30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1380 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton week-on-week [32] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 96.4%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points week-on-week [47] - The daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 33.80 thousand tons/day, a rise of 12.17% week-on-week [12] - The daily coal consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 12.40 thousand tons/day, a decline of 6.67% week-on-week [12] Inventory Situation - As of May 9, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port has increased to 753 thousand tons, up 8.0% week-on-week [5] - The inventory of coking coal at production sites has risen to 390.43 thousand tons, an increase of 8.9% week-on-week [5] Company Performance - The coal sector has shown a 1.47% increase this week, underperforming the broader market [15] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are noted for stable operations and solid performance [13]

山东省出台首份 136 号省级承接文件，欧盟计划 2027 年终止进口俄能源 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 10 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [左前明 Table_Author] 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 化工行业： 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 唐婵玉 电力公用研究助理 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限 ...

铁水日产 续高 ，依旧看好优质普钢业绩改善 【】【】[Table_Industry] 钢铁 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 5 月 11 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [钢铁Table_StockAndRank] 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 高 升 能源、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 能源、钢铁行业研究助理 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 ➢ 投资建议：虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润 整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望 在房地产筑底企稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造 ...