Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Hold" based on the analysis of its performance and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a retail value growth of 13% year-on-year for FY26Q1, with same-store sales increasing by 5%. The proportion of retail value from priced gold increased from 12% to 17% compared to the same period last year, with same-store growth of 73% [1][2]. - The recovery in sales growth in mainland China reached nearly 20%, with retail value growth of 14% in FY26Q1. Self-operated stores outperformed brand stores, with self-operated retail income growing by 31% and same-store growth of 19% [2][3]. - The company aims for a net increase of 72 stores globally in FY2026, with a target of 50 new stores in mainland China, primarily expected to be achieved in the second half of the fiscal year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are estimated at HKD 15,284 million, HKD 17,180 million, and HKD 18,740 million, representing year-on-year growth of 15%, 12%, and 9% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be HKD 1,505 million, HKD 1,731 million, and HKD 1,980 million, with growth rates of 37%, 15%, and 14% respectively [3][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 2.56, HKD 2.95, and HKD 3.37 for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Chow Tai Fook (1929.HK) is "Hold" based on the current performance and market conditions [1]. Core Insights - Chow Tai Fook's FY26Q1 retail value decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, with mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau retail values changing by -3.3% and +7.8% respectively [1]. - The same-store sales in mainland China fell by 3.3%, while Hong Kong and Macau saw an increase of 2.2% [1]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in same-store sales, particularly in the franchise segment, which performed better than direct stores [2]. - E-commerce sales showed significant growth, increasing by 27% and accounting for 7.6% of mainland China's retail value [2]. - The company closed 307 stores in FY26Q1, accelerating channel adjustments, with a total of 6,337 stores as of June 30, 2025 [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Chow Tai Fook are estimated at HKD 91.5 billion, 95.1 billion, and 99.8 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 2%, 4%, and 5% [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 8.06 billion, 8.61 billion, and 9.31 billion for FY26, FY27, and FY28, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 7%, and 8% [3][5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios based on the closing price on July 22, 2025, are projected to be 17, 16, and 15 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [3][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to rectify "involutionary" competition within the industry, which is expected to lead to an improved competitive landscape [2] - Strong demand for travel during the summer season has resulted in high passenger load factors, with a cumulative passenger throughput of 99.864 million from July 1 to July 22, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2] - The report indicates a strong certainty of supply contraction due to delays in aircraft deliveries caused by supply chain disruptions, with net growth rates for major airlines remaining below 3% [2] - The decline in oil prices is expected to enhance airline profitability, with aviation kerosene prices decreasing by 10.0% and 17.0% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024 [2] - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of seat revenue due to improving supply-demand dynamics, suggesting a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [2] Summary by Sections - **Industry Competition**: The Civil Aviation Administration of China is leading efforts to optimize route networks and reduce irrational competition, which is expected to improve the industry's structure [2] - **Passenger Demand**: The summer travel season has shown robust demand, with domestic flight load factors reaching 84.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - **Supply Constraints**: Major airlines are experiencing limited fleet growth, with net growth rates for several airlines being below 3%, and operational capacity is expected to remain tight [2] - **Oil Price Trends**: The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased significantly, contributing to potential profit increases for airlines [2] - **Profitability Outlook**: The report anticipates that improving seat revenue will lead to greater profitability for airlines, with a recommendation to focus on key players in the industry [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The special steel industry is undergoing a structural transformation, driven by the dual growth drivers of energy demand cycles and accelerated domestic substitution processes [3][4] - The high-end special steel sector is crucial for national strategic security and high-end manufacturing, with significant opportunities arising from the energy sector [3][5] - The domestic market still heavily relies on imports for high-end special steel products, with 2024 imports reaching 3.11 million tons valued at 5.9 billion USD, indicating a persistent dependency despite a gradual decline from historical highs [4][30][32] Group 2: Industry Trends - The special steel industry is entering a golden development period, supported by policy initiatives and a shift towards high-end production [5][10] - The energy sector is a key downstream market for special steel, with fixed asset investments in the energy industry reaching 60,376 billion CNY in 2024, a 24% year-on-year increase [6][43] - The demand for high-end special steel in the energy sector is expected to grow significantly, driven by the need for materials with superior strength and corrosion resistance [6][10] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies such as Jiuli Special Steel, CITIC Special Steel, Changbao Co., and Wujin Stainless Steel are highlighted as key players that can benefit from the new energy cycle and domestic substitution opportunities [10] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-end special steel products to meet the increasing demands of the energy sector, particularly in applications like nuclear power, high-pressure boiler pipes, and oil and gas extraction [7][8][9]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in coal production in China's central and eastern regions, with projections indicating a potential exit of approximately 700 million tons of production by 2035, particularly in Shanxi province, which is expected to see the most pronounced decrease [3][4] - The shift in China's coal production focus from the central to the western regions is evident, with the share of production from the central and eastern regions (including Northeast) decreasing by 26% since 2004 [3] - The report emphasizes the limited economically extractable coal reserves in China, with confirmed and credible reserves totaling 2,185.7 billion tons as of the end of 2023, suggesting a potential extraction period of only about 30 years at the current production rate [3][12] Section Summaries 1. Limited Economically Extractable Coal Reserves - China's coal resources are abundant, but the economically extractable reserves are relatively scarce, with a significant portion of reserves located in the western regions [12][13] - The distribution of coal reserves is uneven, with the western regions holding approximately 66% of the total reserves, while the central and eastern regions account for only 28% and 6%, respectively [22][25] - The development of coal reserves in the central and eastern regions faces increasing challenges due to various factors, including deeper mining depths and ecological constraints [33] 2. Declining Coal Production in Central and Eastern Regions - The lifecycle of coal mines typically exhibits a pattern of initial ramp-up, stable production, and a sharp decline in later stages, with the central region's production expected to decrease significantly [2][4] - New coal mines are predominantly being established in the western regions, indicating limited potential for resource development in the central and eastern areas [4][5] - The report notes that the production capacity in key mining areas is rapidly depleting, with challenges in capacity succession becoming more pronounced [4][5] 3. Assessment of Decline Trends and Impacts - The central region, particularly Shanxi, is projected to see an accelerated decline in coal production, with an estimated exit of around 700 million tons by 2035 [4][5] - The report identifies that the consumption rate of coal resources in core mining areas is high, leading to challenges in maintaining production capacity [4][5] - The market for coal mining rights is becoming increasingly competitive, with state-owned enterprises facing structural disadvantages in resource acquisition [4][5] 4. Investment Recommendations - In light of the declining coal production trends in the central and eastern regions, the report suggests focusing on companies with long service life and abundant coal resources in these areas, such as Xinjie Energy and Huaibei Mining [4] - Companies with resources in the Jinshan-Mongolia region or those prioritizing resource acquisition in western Xinjiang are also recommended, including China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal [4] - The report highlights the potential for asset injections from state-owned enterprises, suggesting that companies like Yanzhou Coal and China Shenhua may benefit from such developments [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][9]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Tielong Logistics, is positioned as a leader in the railway special container transportation sector and is expected to enter a new growth cycle [5][17]. - The railway freight industry in China is undergoing steady reform, with three major trends driving the development of railway container transportation: the shift of bulk commodities from road to rail, the transformation of transportation connections through multimodal transport, and the promotion of logistics outsourcing [6][34]. - The company is entering a new round of container production, with plans to purchase 34,900 railway special containers, which is expected to lead to sustained growth in container volume [7][59]. - The company operates multiple business segments, including railway freight and port logistics, which are expected to remain stable due to the expansion of cargo sources and improvements in operational efficiency [8][17]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tielong Logistics, established in 1993 and listed in 1998, is the first publicly listed railway special container transportation company in China, with its controlling shareholder being China Railway Group [5][18]. Business Trends - The company’s core business, railway special container operations, has seen a consistent increase in profit contribution, with a projected gross profit margin of 25.01% for 2024 [21][29]. - The railway freight and port logistics business is expected to maintain stability, supported by the operational improvements of the Dalian cold chain logistics base and the expansion of the Shaba Railway [8][23]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are expected to be CNY 585 million, CNY 690 million, and CNY 805 million, representing year-on-year growth rates of 53.2%, 17.9%, and 16.7% respectively [9][10]. - The average PE ratio over the past five years is approximately 19 times, indicating that the current valuation is relatively low [9][17]. Market Dynamics - The shift of bulk commodities from road to rail is expected to enhance the competitiveness of railway transportation, with the railway freight volume projected to reach 5.17 billion tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [36][54]. - The multimodal transport model is anticipated to optimize logistics efficiency, particularly for bulk commodities, which aligns with the company's operational strategy [39][41]. Conclusion - Tielong Logistics is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the railway freight industry, with a strong focus on expanding its container operations and maintaining stable performance across its various business segments [17][58].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market remains in a narrow - range oscillation. Factors such as "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures that may have short - term impacts on the bond market sentiment, but the overall situation of the bond market has not changed. It is recommended to maintain a portfolio of 3 - year policy financial bonds + 10 - year + 4 - 5 - year credit bonds [2][3][57] - The "anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are beneficial for improving resource allocation efficiency, but their short - term impact on investment demand may be limited. The long - term impact on the economy needs to be further observed [3][38][54] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The central bank maintains relative looseness within the established framework, and the unfreezing of collateral bonds has limited benefits - In June, the excess reserve ratio rose to 1.3%, lower than the expected 1.5%. The increase in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations was basically in line with high - frequency data, which might be the core factor for the lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio [6] - The central bank's short - term motivation to further relax the aggregate policy has weakened, but its concern about the bond investment risks of small and medium - sized banks has eased, and the constraint of long - term interest rates on liquidity loosening has decreased [13] - The actual capital situation was affected by the tax period. The central bank increased its net investment, and the capital tightened first and then loosened slightly. The short - term capital factor may not drive the interest rate to a new low [14][16] - The central bank's proposed cancellation of the freezing of collateral bonds for bond repurchases may indicate a consideration to restart bond purchases. The expectation of bond purchases may have a limited positive impact on the short - end, but it is unlikely to drive the interest rate to a new low in the short term [16][18] II. Domestic demand weakened significantly in June, but the improvement of financial data boosted macro - expectations - In June, the industrial added - value growth rate reached 6.8%, driven by the increase in export delivery value. However, the Q2 GDP growth rate dropped to 5.2% due to the negative growth of the construction industry [19] - From the demand side, except for the improvement of external demand driven by export rush, consumption and investment growth declined significantly in June. The pressure on external demand may further emerge after July, and consumption growth may face pressure without further policy support [25][29] - In June, fixed - asset investment growth rate turned negative, and real - estate sales declined. The sustainability of the rebound in real - estate new construction and completion needs to be observed [32] - In June, financial data was relatively strong. The increase in social financing scale and credit was mainly due to government bond financing and enterprise short - term loans, which may be affected by the strict payment terms of central and state - owned enterprises. This has boosted the expectation of economic improvement and affected the bond market sentiment [35][37][38] III. "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are part of the structural reform, and their short - term impact should not be overestimated - "Anti - involution" and "strict payment terms" are structural reform measures to improve resource allocation efficiency. Strict payment terms are beneficial for accelerating the cash recovery of upstream and mid - stream enterprises, but may not significantly boost investment demand in the short term [3][38][47] - The "anti - involution" mainly restricts local government behavior. The current over - capacity is mainly concentrated in the mid - and downstream sectors, and it is more difficult to clear the over - capacity through administrative orders. Without demand - side support, its impact on inflation may take longer to appear [50][51][54] - The implementation of "anti - involution" needs to be further observed, as the central bank's policy on credit has changed between 2024 and 2025 [56] IV. The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. Be patient and wait for the break of the oscillation pattern - The main contradiction in the bond market has not changed. The narrow interest - rate spread space makes it difficult for the slowdown of economic momentum to prompt the central bank to implement a new round of loosening policies. The long - term interest rate remains in a narrow - range oscillation [57] - If the incremental policies of the Politburo meeting in late July are limited, the A - share market may enter a correction, and the downward pressure on the fundamentals may further appear, which may drive a qualitative change in the bond market. It is recommended to switch from non - active bonds to active bonds and maintain the current bond portfolio [57][58]

把握业绩高增个股，长期关注"创新+复苏" [Table_Industry] 医药生物行业周报 [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 7 月 21 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 医药生物 医药生物 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 本期内容提要: 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_A 唐爱金 uthor 医药首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500523080002 邮 箱：tangaijin@cindasc.com 贺鑫 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120003 邮 箱：hexin@cindasc.com 曹佳琳 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080011 邮 箱：caojialin@cindasc.com 章钟涛 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524030003 邮 箱：zhangzhongtao@cindasc.com 赵丹 医药行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524120002 邮 箱：zhaodan@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CIND ...

顺丰业务量增速持续领先，关注后续行业"反内卷"实质进展 [Table_Industry] 物流 2025 年 7 月 20 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | [Table_StockAndRank] 物流 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 秦梦鸽 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110002 邮 箱：qinmengge@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 快递行业月度专题：顺丰业务量增速持续领 先，关注后续行业"反内卷"实质进展 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 20 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [事件：顺丰控股、圆通速递、韵达股份、申通快递 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong growth in business volume and revenue, with June revenue reaching 26.254 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.43%, and express logistics business volume at 1.46 billion tickets, up 31.77% year-on-year [2][3] - The company has successfully transformed into a comprehensive logistics leader, with new business segments achieving market-leading positions and contributing to revenue and profit improvements [6][7] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company reported a business volume increase of 31.20% year-on-year and revenue growth of 12.41% [3] - The company’s business volume has been accelerating since 2025, significantly outpacing industry growth rates [4] Revenue and Profitability - The total revenue for the company in 2025 is projected to be 315.54 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.9% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 11.91 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.1% [8] Financial Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve from 12.8% in 2023 to 14.0% in 2025 [8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to increase from 8.9% in 2023 to 12.1% in 2025 [8] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with net profits projected to reach 14.26 billion in 2026 and 16.85 billion in 2027, representing growth rates of 19.7% and 18.2% respectively [7][8] - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 29.33 in 2023 to 20.28 in 2025, indicating potential value appreciation [8]