Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads. Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term, and only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrowing [2][5]. - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by about 4BP [2][11]. - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP [2][17]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual (two - type) bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads - Domestic commodity prices rise sharply due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and the A - share market hits a new high this year. The adjustment of interest - rate bonds intensifies, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 4BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds rising by 9BP [5]. - Some institutional liabilities are affected, leading to large - scale selling of credit bonds and a significant rise in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades rise by 10 - 11BP; the yields of 3Y AA and above - grade credit bonds rise by 10 - 11BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 7BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 11BP, and those of other grades rise by 6 - 8BP; the yields of 7Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 5 - 6BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 3BP; the yields of 10Y AA + and above - grade bonds rise by 10 - 12BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 8BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term. Only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrow. Rating spreads and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Spreads of all grades of urban investment bonds rise by about 4BP - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by 4BP. For AAA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Hainan rising by 5BP, and Tianjin and Liaoning rising by 2BP; for AA + - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Jilin rising by 5BP, Yunnan and Tianjin rising by 2BP, and Qinghai remaining flat; for AA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 2 - 5BP, with Gansu and Henan rising by 6BP, Hebei rising by 1BP, and Guizhou falling by 1BP [2][11]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP. The spreads of Longfor rise by 3BP, those of Midea Real Estate rise by 4BP, those of CIFI rise by 160BP, those of Gemdale rise by 1BP, and those of Vanke fall by 4BP. Spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades rise by 4BP respectively; spreads of chemical bonds of all grades rise by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry rise by 6BP, those of HBIS Group rise by 5BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry rise by 4BP [2][17]. 4. Spreads of 3 - to 5 - year two - type bonds rise significantly - This week, the yields of two - type bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Specifically, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades rise by 7 - 8BP, and spreads rise by 2 - 3BP; the yields of 1Y perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 9BP, and spreads rise by 5BP. The yields of 3Y two - type bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 4 - 6BP. The yield of 5Y AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rises by 14BP, the yields of other grades rise by 17BP, and spreads rise by 7BP; the yields of perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 3 - 5BP [2][27][29]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly - This week, the excess spreads of AAA - grade industrial perpetual bonds remain flat. The spreads of 3Y industrial bonds remain at 3.82BP, at the 1.69% quantile since 2015, and the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remain at 7.65BP, at the 4.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.12BP to 3.63BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.41BP to 9.80BP, at the 9.10% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank two - type spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - yield to maturity of same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by arithmetic mean method [38]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [38]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].

6 月光伏装机增速环比大幅降低，天然气进口量同比下降 5.5% 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 26 日 15666646523.tcy 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc. ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 公司点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 齐鲁银行(601665) | 投资评级 | 增持 | | --- | --- | | 上次评级 | 增持 | [Table_Author] 张晓辉 银行业分析师 执业编号：S1500523080008 邮 箱：zhangxiaohui@cindasc.com 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 齐鲁银行2024 年报&2025 一季报点评： 业绩表现持续不俗，Q1 开启扩表新篇 章 齐鲁银行 2024 业绩快报点评：年末收 官业绩亮眼，资产质量持续向好 齐鲁银行 2024 三季报点评：利润增速 再提升，资本边际更为充足 [Table_Title] 齐鲁银行 2025 半年度业绩快报点评：营收利 润稳步增长，资产质量持续优化 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 07 月 26 日 [Table_S 事件： ummar 7 月 25y] 日晚，齐鲁银行发布 2025 年半年度业绩快报：2025 上半 年，实现营业收入 67.82 亿元，同比增长 5.76%；实现归母净 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Dividend-Adjusted Basis Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model adjusts the futures basis by incorporating the expected dividend impact during the contract's life, ensuring a more accurate representation of the basis[20] - **Model Construction Process**: The formula for the adjusted basis is: $ Adjusted\ Basis = Actual\ Basis + Expected\ Dividend\ Points $ The annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized\ Basis = \frac{(Actual\ Basis + Expected\ Dividend\ Points)}{Index\ Price} \times \frac{360}{Days\ to\ Maturity} $ This adjustment accounts for the dividend points expected during the contract's life, which are subtracted from the index level but reflected in the futures price[20][21][27] 2. Model Name: Continuous Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy involves continuously holding futures contracts to hedge the spot index, adjusting positions as contracts approach expiration[46] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Hedging Setup**: - Spot: Hold the total return index of the underlying - Futures: Use 70% of the capital for the spot and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts - **Rebalancing Rule**: - Hold the current month/quarter futures contract until 2 days before expiration - Close the expiring contract and open a new position in the next month/quarter contract at the closing price - **Assumptions**: No transaction costs, no slippage, and equal capital allocation between spot and futures[47] 3. Model Name: Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This strategy selects futures contracts with the smallest annualized discount to minimize basis risk[48] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Hedging Setup**: - Spot: Hold the total return index of the underlying - Futures: Use 70% of the capital for the spot and the remaining 30% for shorting futures contracts - **Selection Rule**: - Calculate the annualized basis for all available futures contracts - Select the contract with the smallest discount for hedging - Hold the selected contract for 8 trading days or until 2 days before expiration, whichever comes first - **Assumptions**: No transaction costs, no slippage, and equal capital allocation between spot and futures[48] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Dividend-Adjusted Basis Model - **IC Futures**: Current basis discount at -7.79%, improved from a weekly low of -8.57%[21] - **IF Futures**: Current basis discount at -1.74%, improved from a weekly low of -2.33%[27] - **IH Futures**: Current basis premium at 0.52%, down from a weekly high of 0.94%[32] - **IM Futures**: Current basis discount at -10.13%, improved from a weekly low of -11.86%[39] 2. Continuous Hedging Strategy - **IC Futures**: - Annualized Return: -2.87% (current month), -2.11% (quarterly)[50] - Volatility: 3.85% (current month), 4.74% (quarterly)[50] - Maximum Drawdown: -8.65% (current month), -8.34% (quarterly)[50] - **IF Futures**: - Annualized Return: 0.52% (current month), 0.69% (quarterly)[55] - Volatility: 2.99% (current month), 3.34% (quarterly)[55] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.95% (current month), -4.03% (quarterly)[55] - **IH Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.08% (current month), 2.00% (quarterly)[59] - Volatility: 3.10% (current month), 3.52% (quarterly)[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.22% (current month), -3.76% (quarterly)[59] - **IM Futures**: - Annualized Return: -6.09% (current month), -4.50% (quarterly)[61] - Volatility: 4.73% (current month), 5.78% (quarterly)[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -14.01% (current month), -12.63% (quarterly)[61] 3. Minimum Discount Hedging Strategy - **IC Futures**: - Annualized Return: -1.09%[50] - Volatility: 4.64%[50] - Maximum Drawdown: -7.97%[50] - **IF Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.33%[55] - Volatility: 3.12%[55] - Maximum Drawdown: -4.06%[55] - **IH Futures**: - Annualized Return: 1.75%[59] - Volatility: 3.12%[59] - Maximum Drawdown: -3.91%[59] - **IM Futures**: - Annualized Return: -3.89%[61] - Volatility: 5.58%[61] - Maximum Drawdown: -11.11%[61] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Cinda-VIX - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the market's expectation of future volatility for the underlying asset, with a term structure to capture different time horizons[64] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Derived from the implied volatility of options on the underlying index - Adjusted to reflect the characteristics of the Chinese market[64] - **Current Values**: - 30-day VIX: 21.24 (SSE 50), 20.56 (CSI 300), 28.18 (CSI 500), 25.00 (CSI 1000)[64] 2. Factor Name: Cinda-SKEW - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing market sentiment on tail risks[74] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculated based on the implied volatility of out-of-the-money options - Higher values indicate greater concern for downside risks[74][75] - **Current Values**: - SKEW: 97.47 (SSE 50), 98.01 (CSI 300), 100.61 (CSI 500), 102.81 (CSI 1000)[75] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Cinda-VIX - **30-day VIX**: - SSE 50: 21.24[64] - CSI 300: 20.56[64] - CSI 500: 28.18[64] - CSI 1000: 25.00[64] 2. Cinda-SKEW - **SKEW**: - SSE 50: 97.47[75] - CSI 300: 98.01[75] - CSI 500: 100.61[75] - CSI 1000: 102.81[75]

Group 1 - The total share of actively managed equity funds decreased to 28,063 billion units in Q2 2025, a decrease of 1,080 billion units compared to Q1 2025 [2][7] - The median net redemption rate for existing actively managed equity funds decreased from 4.03% in Q1 2025 to 3.57% in Q2 2025, a change of 0.46 percentage points [2][11] - The number of high-position public funds increased in Q2 2025, with 48.04% of all sample equity funds holding over 90% in stocks, up 5.38 percentage points from Q1 2025 [2][21] Group 2 - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the financial and technology growth sectors, particularly in AI computing and banking [2][5] - The allocation to the communication sector saw the largest increase, moving into an overweight position and becoming one of the top five sectors [2][5] - The healthcare and military sectors also received significant increases in allocations, aligning with the performance of innovative drugs and military stocks in Q2 2025 [2][5] Group 3 - The allocation to mid-cap stocks (500 billion to 2 trillion) increased by 2.63 percentage points, while the allocation to stocks over 2 trillion decreased significantly [2][53] - The actively managed equity funds focused on increasing their holdings in the ChiNext board while reducing their positions in the main board and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2][35] - The concentration of holdings in industries and individual stocks decreased, with the top three industries' share rising to 38.12% in Q2 2025, while the top five and top ten industries' shares decreased [2][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electronic industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The electronic industry allocation ratio reached 18.3%, maintaining the top position in the market, with an overweight ratio of 7.0% [10][16] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with a positive outlook for the second half of the year [20] - The consumer electronics sector is benefiting from AI empowerment, with a focus on valuation recovery opportunities [29] - The components sector is seeing significant growth due to global AI infrastructure development [33] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - Institutional holdings in the semiconductor sector accounted for 9.94%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from the previous quarter [20] - The second quarter saw a gradual recovery in downstream demand and orders returning to normal levels [20] - Key companies with increased institutional holdings include Huahong Semiconductor, Zhaoyi Innovation, and OmniVision [20] Consumer Electronics Sector - Institutional holdings in the consumer electronics sector were 3.16%, down 0.87 percentage points [29] - Companies like Industrial Fulian, Lens Technology, and Huakin Technology saw increased institutional holdings [29] - AI applications in both cloud and edge computing are expected to drive sales growth in consumer electronics [29] Components Sector - The components sector's institutional holdings increased to 3.73%, up 1.44 percentage points [33] - Benefiting from the global AI infrastructure boom, companies like Shenghong Technology and Huitian Technology received significant institutional support [33] - The sector is expected to experience a "Davis Double" effect due to strong demand from cloud vendors and sovereign AI investments [33] Optical and Optoelectronic Sector - Institutional holdings in the optical and optoelectronic sector were 0.74%, a slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points [3] - Companies like BOE Technology and TCL Technology saw increased institutional support [3] Electronic Chemicals Sector - The electronic chemicals sector maintained an institutional holding ratio of 0.49% [3] - Companies such as Anji Technology and Dinglong Co. received increased institutional investments [3]

Group 1: Current Characteristics of Social Retail Growth - Social group consumption is slowly recovering, but resident consumption remains dominant, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2.5% for social group consumption in Q2 2025[5] - The gap in growth rates between resident and social group consumption has narrowed from 4.2 percentage points to 2.5 percentage points in the first half of the year[5] - Social retail growth is primarily driven by commodity consumption, with commodity retail growth rising from 4.6% to 5.1% in Q2 2025, while catering retail has declined[7] Group 2: Consumer Sentiment and Policy Impact - Consumer sentiment is recovering, supported by stable employment, with the urban unemployment rate decreasing from 5.2% to 5.0% in Q2 2025[11] - The "old-for-new" policy has driven sales exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, indicating a positive impact on consumer willingness across various categories[12] - The remaining central funds for the "old-for-new" policy in the second half of the year are estimated to generate 1.4 trillion yuan in sales, comparable to last year's 1.3 trillion yuan[18] Group 3: Outlook and Risks - The growth rate of social retail may slow in the second half of the year, but the decline is expected to be limited due to the resilience of resident consumption against stricter regulations on social group dining[17] - The central government's funding for the "old-for-new" policy is expected to be distributed evenly, with 1,620 billion yuan allocated in the first half and 1,380 billion yuan planned for the second half[17] - Risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence and potential delays in policy implementation[24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month-on-month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly affected by the large - scale net repayment of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs). The net financing scale of treasury bonds also declined significantly, while the custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - In June, factors such as the Sino - US economic and trade consultations reaching a framework of measures and the cease - fire between Israel and Iran boosted market risk appetite. However, supported by factors such as looser liquidity and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases, the bond market sentiment warmed up. The short - end interest rates dropped significantly, and the long - end interest rates also declined slightly. The bond - buying demand of trading desks increased significantly. Non - bank institutions significantly increased their bond - buying scale, and insurance institutions turned to increase bond holdings. Banks still had the ability to increase bond holdings despite the record - high net repayment of NCDs, indicating a relief of banks' liability pressure and an increase in market allocation capacity [3][11]. - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June. Although the increase was higher than the seasonal level, it was still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The significant increase in non - bank leverage ratio shows that the main risk in the market is whether institutional sentiment has turned overheated. However, since its absolute value is not high compared with the same period in previous years, the over - heating of sentiment may not have reached its peak [3][40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit declined significantly, and the bond custody increment in June shrank substantially - In June, the total bond custody scale increased by 129.68 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 86.65 billion yuan compared to May, mainly due to the large - scale net repayment of NCDs and the significant decline in the net financing scale of treasury bonds. The custody increments of policy - financial bonds, local government bonds, and credit bonds all increased slightly month - on - month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest - rate bonds, the custody increment of treasury bonds decreased by 20.85 billion yuan to 69.95 billion yuan; the custody increment of local government bonds increased by 12.91 billion yuan to 65.14 billion yuan; the custody increment of policy - financial bonds increased slightly by 5.12 billion yuan to 33.33 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the custody increment of medium - term notes increased by 17.27 billion yuan to 24.63 billion yuan, and the decline in the custody scale of short - term commercial paper narrowed by 1.49 billion yuan to 2.82 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and PPNs continued to decline. The custody volume of NCDs decreased by 71.99 billion yuan from an increase of 26.94 billion yuan last month, and the custody increment of commercial bank bonds decreased by 5.34 billion yuan to 20.84 billion yuan [6]. 2. In June, the willingness of allocation desks to increase holdings declined from a high level, while trading desks increased holdings of interest - rate bonds and reduced holdings of NCDs - **General Funds**: In June, the bond custody increment of general funds decreased by 20.77 billion yuan to 60.49 billion yuan. They turned to significantly reduce holdings of NCDs, with the reduction scale reaching a new high since December 2022, but increased holdings of treasury bonds and medium - term notes and turned to increase holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds but reduced allocation of NCDs [14]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume of securities companies increased by 10.23 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 12.61 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of various interest - rate bonds and medium - term notes but also increased the reduction of NCDs. Relative to the stock, they also increased allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but strengthened the reduction of NCDs [19]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4.68 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 120 million yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform but slightly reduced holdings of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they increased allocation of local government bonds and significantly weakened the reduction of financial bonds on the Clearstream platform [23]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume of overseas institutions decreased by 11.61 billion yuan in June, with the decline increasing from 9.63 billion yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, and the reduction scale of policy - financial bonds increased, but the reduction scale of commercial bank bonds decreased. Relative to the stock, they maintained a high - level reduction of bonds [27]. - **Other Institutions**: The bond custody volume of other institutions (including the central bank) increased by 13.77 billion yuan in June from a decrease of 19.27 billion yuan last month. They turned to increase holdings of treasury bonds and reduced the reduction scale of local government bonds, but turned to reduce holdings of NCDs and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform. The increase in bond custody volume was mainly affected by the change of the central bank's outright repo from a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan in May to a net injection of 20 billion yuan in June [31]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment of commercial banks decreased significantly by 127.48 billion yuan to 40.32 billion yuan in June. The increase in holdings of treasury bonds decreased significantly, which may be affected by the change of the outright repo. They also reduced the increase in holdings of local government bonds and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, turned to reduce holdings of policy - financial bonds and commercial bank bonds, but turned to increase holdings of medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds, commercial bank bonds, and financial bonds on the Clearstream platform, but increased allocation of NCDs [33]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 246 million yuan in June from an increase of 544 million yuan last month. They turned to reduce holdings of treasury bonds and NCDs and decreased the increase in holdings of policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced allocation of bonds, mainly various interest - rate bonds and NCDs [38]. 3. The bond market leverage ratio increased significantly in June but was still below the historical neutral level - Affected by the significant increase in the balance of repurchase agreements, the bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8% in June, with the increase higher than the seasonal level but still at a relatively low level in the past three years. The inter - bank average daily pledged repo trading volume increased to 7.77 trillion yuan, and the monthly average balance increased to 12.02 trillion yuan, reaching a new high this year [40]. - **Commercial Banks**: The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.4 percentage points to 103.6% in June, but was still significantly lower than the central level before April 2024 [40]. - **Non - bank Institutions**: The leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.8 percentage points to 118.1% in June, with the month - on - month increase being the highest since 2023, but the absolute value was still not high in the past three years. Among them, the leverage ratio of securities companies increased significantly by 9.7 percentage points to 217.1%, reaching a relatively high level in the past three years; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal person products increased by 1.5 percentage points to 114.8%, but was still lower than the central level from June 2022 to December 2024 [40]. - **General Funds**: The repurchase balances of various institutions in general funds generally increased. The repurchase balance of money market funds continued to increase significantly, while the increases in the repurchase balances of non - money products of fund companies and insurance companies were relatively small. The repurchase balance of other products reached a historical high, and the repurchase balance of wealth management products also increased but was still near a historical low [40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its performance and growth potential [1]. Core Views - The company has proposed a mid-term dividend plan for 2025, suggesting a cash dividend of 5.8 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [1]. - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 is projected to show significant growth, with a non-GAAP net profit expected to be between 455 million to 485 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.32% to 67.69% [1]. - The company is advancing its AI strategy, launching new products that enhance competitiveness and profitability, with a notable increase in sales volume and pricing [1]. - The company plans to increase prices of its digital energy products in the U.S. by 7% to 10% to offset high tariffs, indicating a proactive approach to cost management [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3,251 million yuan in 2023 to 7,932 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25.7% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 179.23 million yuan in 2023 to 1,374 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 28.4% [2]. - The company's EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.27 yuan in 2023 to 2.05 yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 124.2 to 16.2 [2][3].

Fund Market Overview - The total scale of public funds exceeded 33.67 trillion yuan as of Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 6.71% [6][11] - The growth structure indicates a clear preference for bond funds, money market funds, and passive index products, while actively managed equity funds continue to face net redemption pressure [6][11] - The number of newly established funds in Q2 2025 was 378, with a total fundraising scale of 286.12 billion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 29.2 billion yuan from Q1 [11][12] Fund Performance - The median return for various fund types was positive, with cross-border equity products performing particularly well; QDII mixed and QDII equity funds had median returns of 9.25% and 8.05%, respectively [2][6] - Active equity funds had a total scale of approximately 3.34 trillion yuan, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter but showing a continuous decline in share, reflecting cautious investor sentiment [2][15] Active Equity Fund Configuration - Active equity funds showed a clear trend of increasing positions, with the average stock position rising to 88.13%, indicating a rebound in risk appetite [2][6] - The allocation to Hong Kong stocks continued to rise, reaching 17.01%, while the concentration of holdings decreased for three consecutive quarters, indicating a weakening of the "hugging" effect [2][6] Heavyweight Stocks Analysis - As of the end of Q2 2025, the top five heavy holdings in active equity funds included Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, Midea Group, Zijin Mining, and Luxshare Precision [2][3] - The report highlighted a shift in holding structure towards technology growth, with significant increases in positions for stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng [3][26] Market Analysis and Outlook - Fund managers expressed structural optimism, noting that the macroeconomic environment is gradually improving, despite challenges such as weak domestic demand and external uncertainties [4][6] - The "barbell strategy" remains popular, focusing on high-dividend assets and technology growth sectors as key areas for excess returns [4][6]