Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In July, the bond market oscillated weakly due to factors such as the central bank's protection of the capital market, short - term settlement of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the "anti - involution" driving the equity and commodity markets. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively [1][8]. - In August, from the fundamental perspective, focus on the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of Sino - US tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI in domestic and external demand, and the impact of the "anti - involution" policy on the improvement of the prosperity index. Also, observe the possible disturbances of the improvement of key data such as real estate on the fundamentals and expectations [2]. - In terms of supply, the single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds are expected to drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August may be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2]. - Regarding the capital market, there may be phased fluctuations due to the end of the month and the peak of inter - bank certificate of deposit (CD) maturities. After entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2]. - From the policy perspective, the Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3]. - In terms of institutional behavior, institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Bond Market Review: Interest Rates Oscillated Upward, and the Yield Curve Steepened Bearishly - In July, affected by multiple factors, the bond market oscillated weakly. The long - end yield increased more, with the 10Y and 1Y Treasury bond yields rising by 6BP and 4BP respectively. The term spread widened by 2BP to 32BP [1][8]. - The yield curve of Treasury bonds steepened bearishly in July, with the medium - and long - end yields generally rising more. The implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds generally increased [9]. - Overseas, US inflation continued to rise slightly, labor data improved, and the Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate unchanged in July. The market's expectation of a September interest rate cut decreased. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted further [10]. 2. This Month's Outlook and Strategy (1) This Month's Bond Market Outlook: The Capital Market is Likely to Return to Normal, and Supply will Reach a Peak in the Second Half of the Year - **Fundamentals**: For the July macro - data to be released, pay attention to the possible improvement of CPI and social financing structure, the resilience of exports after the extension of tariff exemptions, the marginal changes of PMI, and the impact of real estate data improvement on fundamentals and expectations [2][28]. - **Supply**: The single - month issuance peak of ultra - long special national bonds and the continued high - level use of new special bonds will drive the high supply of government bonds in August. The net supply of government bonds in August is expected to be around 1.4 trillion yuan, which may be the peak in the second half of the year [2][41]. - **Capital Market**: There may be phased fluctuations at the end of the month, but after entering August, with the decline of inter - bank CD scale and the central bank's protection, the capital market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The central bank may restart Treasury bond trading, and multiple tools will jointly support the reasonable and abundant liquidity [2][48]. - **Policy**: The Politburo meeting at the end of July was positive but with limited incremental information. The Sino - US tariff negotiation was settled at the end of July, with a 90 - day tariff exemption extension, and the attitude of the US needs to be continuously monitored [3][61]. - **Institutional Behavior**: Institutions still increased their holdings in July. In August, with interest rates likely to decline and fluctuate, focus on the support of large - scale banks for the short - end, the increase in the long - end holdings of rural commercial banks, the recovery of the fund's motivation to increase holdings by extending the duration, and the marginal change in the insurance company's willingness to allocate ultra - long - end bonds. The adjustment of government bond VAT may also affect institutional allocation logic [3][68]. (2) Bond Market Strategy: Focus on the Balance between Stocks and Bonds, the Bond Market will Oscillate Downward, and Pay Attention to Trading Opportunities - In August, the main points of concern are the return of the capital market to a loose state under the central bank's protection, the shift from the stock - bond seesaw to the balance between stocks and bonds, the peak supply of government bonds due to the acceleration of special bond issuance, and the short - term impact of the change in government bond VAT [74]. - In terms of interest rates, the bond market's capital market in August is likely to return to a stable state under the central bank's protection. The bond market is still in a favorable environment, but the implementation of broad - based monetary policies needs to be awaited. The subsequent market is likely to evolve from the stock - bond seesaw to a balanced state. Short - term bond interest rates may decline marginally. Strategies include maintaining an appropriate duration, focusing on band trading, paying attention to the trading value of old bonds and the allocation value of new bonds, taking profits when yields are low, and increasing allocations when the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rises above 1.75% [76]. 3. Important Economic Calendar for August - The table provides the expected release dates and market expectations of various economic indicators in July and August, including foreign exchange reserves, CPI, PPI, M2, social financing scale, etc. [78]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the net financing scale of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds in the primary market was negative, with the issuance mainly being unrated bonds. The total issuance scale increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year, mainly due to Shimao Group Holdings Co., Ltd. issuing new bonds for debt restructuring. Most of the main sectors had positive net financing, with real - estate US dollar bonds being the main force in issuance [1][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory (1) 7月中资美元债净融资规模为负，发行以无评级为主 - As of July 31, 2025, 85 new Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were issued in the primary market, mainly real - estate US dollar bonds, with a total issuance scale of $19.387 billion, a 55% month - on - month and 27% year - on - year increase. The average issuance coupon rate was 3.79%. 98 bonds matured, with a maturity scale of $20.017 billion. The net financing scale for the month was - $629 million. The significant increase in issuance scale was mainly due to Shimao Group issuing $11.734 billion in new bonds for debt restructuring [1][7]. - In terms of different ratings, 2 investment - grade bonds were newly issued, with a scale of $744 million; 13 matured, with a scale of $5.55 billion, and the net financing scale was - $4.806 billion. No high - yield bonds were newly issued, 5 matured, with a scale of $1.6 billion, and the net financing scale was - $1.6 billion. 83 unrated bonds were newly issued, with a scale of $18.643 billion; 80 matured, with a scale of $12.867 billion, and the net financing scale was $5.777 billion [2][12][14]. (2) 主要板块净融资规模多数为正，地产美元债为发行主力 - Real - estate US dollar bonds: As of July 31, 2025, 6 new bonds were issued, with a scale of $11.734 billion, an average issuance coupon rate of 2.17%. All were new bonds issued by Shimao Group for debt restructuring. 11 bonds matured, with a scale of $4.419 billion. The net financing scale for the month was $7.314 billion, and no material defaults occurred [3][18]. - Financial US dollar bonds: As of July 31, 2025, 55 new bonds were issued, with a scale of $3.789 billion, an average issuance coupon rate of 2.98%. 55 bonds matured, with a scale of $5.669 billion. The net financing scale for the month was - $1.88 billion, and no material defaults occurred [3][27]. - Urban investment US dollar bonds: As of July 31, 2025, 12 new bonds were issued, with a scale of $1.725 billion, an average issuance coupon rate of 5.74%. 12 bonds matured, with a scale of $1.198 billion. The net financing scale for the month was $527 million, and no material defaults occurred [3][34].

出口延续强韧性,进口增长超预期 -7 月进出口数据解读 2025 年 8 月 7 日 分析师 张迪 ☎：010-8092-7737 ☑: zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130524060001 目雷 8 月 7 日海关总署公布 7 月进出口数据: 7 月我国出口商品 3217.8 亿美元, 0 同比增速为 7.2%(前值 5.9%)，过去十年出口增速同期均值为 3.6%。进口 2235.4 亿美元,增速 4.1%(前值 1.1%),过去十年进口增速同期均值为 0.6%。 贸易顺差 982 亿美元（前值 1148 亿美元）。 7 月出口增速延续小幅回升，其一全球经济景气度仍具韧性，其二抢出口 0 和转口贸易仍有所支撑:一是全球制造业 PMI 仍具韧性。7月 IMF 发布最 新全球经济展望,预计 2025 年和 2026 年的全球经济增速将分别为 3.0%和 3.1%,较今年 4 月预测值分别上调 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。7 月全球制造业 PMI 为 49.7%(前值 50.4%),欧英越印墨等均有不同幅度上行,其中越南 PMI 上行 3.5 个百分点，墨西哥 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the core viewpoint that the financial system supporting the high-end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry is expected to mature by 2027, with a focus on enhancing the adaptability of financial services and ensuring the effective satisfaction of credit demand from manufacturing enterprises [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of various financial tools such as loans, bonds, equity, and insurance working in synergy to support the manufacturing sector [2][3] - It identifies six key highlights of the policy, including the emphasis on "new industrialization," the collaborative effort of financial tools, and the focus on long-term financing for manufacturing [2] Manufacturing and Industry Focus - The report suggests paying attention to key industries such as integrated circuits, industrial mother machines, industrial software, and advanced materials, which are expected to benefit from financial support for "supplementing and extending" investments [3] - It emphasizes the importance of hard technology and specialized small and medium enterprises, advocating for early-stage financing and long-term investment in sectors like new-generation information technology and high-end equipment [3] - The report also highlights the role of green finance in promoting low-carbon transitions in manufacturing, recommending investments in environmental protection and resource utilization [3] Digital Economy and Regional Development - The report discusses the need for financial institutions to optimize resource allocation to support industrial transfers to less developed regions, focusing on advanced manufacturing clusters and innovative industry clusters [4] - It highlights the importance of preventing "involution" in competition, particularly in emerging industries like photovoltaics and lithium batteries, to promote high-quality development [4] Public Utilities and Renewable Energy - The report notes a significant decline in new installations for wind and solar energy in June, with expectations for substantial growth in renewable energy installations in the coming years [18][19] - It mentions the commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to enhance the long-term growth potential of the hydropower industry [19] - The report indicates that the demand for green electricity is becoming clearer, with new policies enhancing the consumption responsibility for renewable energy [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the thermal power sector that have a large market coal exposure and are less affected by coal price fluctuations [22] - It suggests that the water and nuclear power sectors have significant investment value due to low interest rates [22] - The report encourages capturing opportunities in the renewable energy sector, supported by ongoing reforms and policies promoting green electricity consumption [22]

- The report contains no quantitative models or factors relevant to the task

The provided content does not contain any information related to quantitative models or factors, their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily include market data, stock performance, and general financial information, but no specific quantitative analysis or factor/model details are present.

Key Insights - The A-share market saw a significant increase in new account openings, reaching 1.96 million in July, a year-on-year growth of 71% [1] - The report highlights three main lines of economic work for the second half of the year, focusing on expanding domestic and foreign demand, developing new productivity, and promoting high-quality reforms [1][7] - The AI industry is expected to accelerate its development, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 15%, potentially contributing about 10% to China's GDP over the next decade [1][21][22] Economic Performance - In the first half of 2024, China's economy grew by 5.3%, with significant contributions from major provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu, which together accounted for 20.7% of the national GDP [2][3] - Most provinces are on track to meet their annual growth targets, with 20 provinces exceeding their goals in the first half of the year [3][4] - Fixed asset investment growth was below annual targets in nearly 70% of provinces, indicating a need for increased efforts in the second half [4][5] Consumer and Export Trends - Consumer retail sales growth exceeded annual targets in 14 out of 22 provinces, driven by government initiatives to boost consumption [5][6] - Eastern provinces faced export pressures, while central and western regions showed strong export growth, particularly in green energy products [6][7] AI Industry Development - The AI industry is entering a phase of scale enhancement, with a complete chain from chips to applications established in China [21][22] - Key application areas for AI include industrial and consumer sectors, with significant growth expected in AI consumer hardware [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of open scenarios and robust industrial foundations for AI development [21][22] Xiaomi Group's Automotive Business - Xiaomi's SU7 electric vehicle launched successfully, achieving 156,000 sales in the first half of 2025, capturing a 24.8% market share in the domestic B+ segment [16][18] - The company aims to sell 400,000 vehicles in 2025, establishing itself as a leader in the high-end electric vehicle market [18][19] - Xiaomi's strategy includes leveraging its ecosystem and technological advantages to enhance its competitive position in the automotive sector [17][18]

4 中国银河证券 CGS 宏观动态报告 上半年分省经济数据的七大看点 2025年8月4日 分析师 章俊 首席经济学家 ☎: 010-8092-8096 zhangjun_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码:S0130523070003 张迪 ☎: 010-8092-7737 zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130524060001 路自愿 差距呈拉大趋势。上半年广东对江苏 GDP 总量的领先优势创 2018 年以来同 期新低,GDP 第一大省受到挑战的可能性进一步加大。 ☎: 136-7105-7587 网: luziyuan_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码: S0130525070001 作会议将全方位扩大内需、大力提振消费作为九大重点工作任务之首,其中 大力提振消费是重中之重。大力提振消费也成为 2025年各地政府工作报告 中重点提及的工作。在此背景下,有数据可比的 22个省份中,14个省份上 半年社零增速超全年预期目标,占比超 63.6%。但同时,经济发达的北京、 天津、上海社零同比增速居全国末位。社零规模本 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Development - China's AI industry is currently in the "scale-up" phase, with a market size expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2030, contributing approximately 10% to GDP over the next decade[2][46] - The AI+ industry is projected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 15%[2][46] - By the end of 2024, the AI industry in China is expected to surpass 700 billion yuan, maintaining a growth rate of over 20% annually[11] Group 2: Industrial and Consumer Integration - China's industrial base provides rich scenarios for AI applications, with the country expected to account for 45% of global industrial output by 2030[28][33] - The AI consumer hardware market is projected to exceed 1.17 trillion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 10%, significantly outpacing the overall consumption growth rate of 3.4%[39] - AI applications are expected to expand from traditional industrial and consumer sectors to deeper integration across various industries[46][50] Group 3: Key Growth Areas - The digital native sector, represented by large internet companies, is poised for rapid growth due to its established data infrastructure and user base[51] - High-penetration industries such as finance, healthcare, and transportation are expected to see accelerated AI adoption, with 88% of financial institutions in the U.S. already deploying AI[51] - Industrial AI tools and platforms are anticipated to evolve, requiring deep integration of algorithms with industry knowledge to achieve comprehensive autonomy[52] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation, volatility in financial markets, and uncertainties in AI technology iterations[2][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting its configuration value amidst positive macroeconomic policies and ongoing support for consumption and technology [5][37]. Core Insights - The banking sector has shown resilience, with the PB ratio at 0.73 times and a dividend yield of 4.09%, indicating strong potential for investment [5][28]. - The resumption of VAT on newly issued government bonds is expected to impact banks' income and asset allocation, leading to a decrease in actual comprehensive yields for various bonds [11][10]. - The implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans is anticipated to benefit retail banking operations, stimulating credit demand [16][5]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The July Politburo meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [7][8]. - The meeting also highlighted the importance of expanding domestic demand and supporting new productive forces, which could benefit retail and technology finance sectors [9][8]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a decline of 0.84% compared to a 1.75% drop in the CSI 300 index [5][17]. - Among listed banks, Agricultural Bank (+2.43%) and Industrial and Commercial Bank (+1.74%) showed notable gains [18][5]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - As of August 1, 2025, the banking sector's PB ratio stands at 0.73, reflecting a 43.98% discount compared to the overall A-share market [28][5]. - The report lists several banks with strong performance potential, including Industrial and Commercial Bank (601398), Agricultural Bank (601288), and Postal Savings Bank (601658) [37][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that low-valued joint-stock banks and quality regional banks are gaining attention from active funds, with a focus on the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [37][5]. - The overall positive accumulation of fundamental factors in the banking sector indicates a potential turning point in performance [37][5].