下调公积金贷款利率,拟推融资政策 2025 年国新办一揽子金融政策点评 2025 年 5 月 7 日 房地产行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 胡孝宇 网: huxiaoyu_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523070001 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025-5-6 房地产(申万 40% 20% 资料来源:中国银河证券研究院 行业点评·房地产行业 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 相关研究 1. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_持续巩固稳 定态势，有力有序推进城改 2. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_全面发力, 持续推动地产止跌回稳 3. 【银河地产】行业深度_房地产_内生和外生因素 支撑下的需求中枢 4. 【银河地产】行业点评_房地产行业_供需两侧齐 发力,推动地产止跌回稳 5. 【银河地产】行业点评_加快构建新模式,推进地 产新篇章_三中全会专题研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 o 事件: 2025年 5月7日,国新办举行新闻发布会,央行、金管局、证监会等 部门负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况, ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is not bearish in the short - term. In May 2025, with a high supply of bonds and a likely loose capital situation, and considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not expected to decline. The central bank's announcements of a 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10BP interest rate cut on May 7, 2025, are in line with market expectations, with the interest rate cut slightly exceeding expectations. The short - end of the bond market prices in the downward shift of policy interest rates, while the long - end prices in profit - taking and the stock - bond seesaw effect [2]. - The implementation of policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and the promotion of science and technology innovation bonds is expected to have a positive impact on the bond market and the real economy. Reserve requirement ratio cuts can provide long - term liquidity, stabilize bank net interest margins, and promote credit expansion. Interest rate cuts support employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The development of science and technology innovation bonds will help accelerate scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Monetary Policy - **Reserve Requirement Ratio Cut**: A 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut will provide 1 trillion yuan in liquidity. The reserve requirement ratio for auto finance will be reduced from 5% to 0%. This can release low - cost long - term funds, stabilize bank net interest margins, and guide banks to increase credit supply [2]. - **Interest Rate Cut**: The 7 - day OMO rate will be cut by 10BP to 1.4%, and it is expected to drive a 10BP decline in LPR. The central bank will also lower the re - lending rate and the provident fund lending rate, reflecting a "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [2]. - **Structural Monetary Policy Tools**: The interest rate of structural monetary policy tools will be cut by 0.25 percentage points, from 1.75% to 1.5%. The PSL rate for policy - based financial institutions will be cut from 2.25% to 2%. A 500 - billion - yuan service consumption and elderly care special re - lending facility will be established. The quota for science and technology innovation and technological transformation re - lending will be increased from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan, and the quota for agricultural and small - business re - lending will be increased by 300 billion yuan [2]. - **Reasons for Reserve Requirement Ratio and Interest Rate Cuts**: The central bank's goal of stabilizing the exchange rate has been achieved in the short - term. The US dollar - RMB exchange rate has returned to 7.2 since late April. Fundamental pressures may gradually emerge, with the impact of tariff policies on external demand and the economy likely to show in Q2, as indicated by the decline of the PMI in April. Tariffs have entered the substantive negotiation stage, and the central bank is taking preemptive policy actions to deal with potential market fluctuations [2]. Science and Technology Innovation Bond Risk - Sharing Tools - The central bank has promoted the development of science and technology innovation bonds. Financial institutions, science and technology enterprises, and private equity investment institutions are supported to issue such bonds. The relevant policies and preparations for the "science and technology board" of the bond market are basically completed. Nearly 500 market institutions plan to issue over 300 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds. This is an effective follow - up to the Politburo meeting in April and is expected to boost scientific and technological innovation and attract more funds into the bond market [2]. Outlook on the Bond Market - In May, with a high supply of bonds, the capital situation is likely to remain loose. Considering the impact of external demand on the macro - economy under tariff pressure, the bond market is not bearish in the short - term. After the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, the short - end bond yields usually decline by 1 - 4BP on the next trading day, and then may rise in 5 - 10 trading days. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and investors can consider trading on dips and pay attention to ultra - long - term bonds and short - duration assets [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, projecting a positive outlook for the upcoming years [31]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 4.4% in 2025, 9.2% in 2026, and 11.3% in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 1.1%, 7.3%, and 11.4% growth respectively [31]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.17, 2.33, and 2.59 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 10.1x, 9.4x, and 8.5x [31]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9,765 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.1%, and a net profit of 1,230 million yuan, with a growth of 10.2% [4][17]. - The company's revenue is expected to reach 10,198 million yuan in 2025, with a slight increase in net profit to 1,244 million yuan [32]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 24.2%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year [17]. Business Segmentation - The company's revenue from clean and healthy home appliances and gardening tools is projected to be 57 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 10.3% [5]. - Revenue from electric motors, precision parts for new energy vehicles, and other components is expected to reach 39 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 11.7% year-on-year [5]. - International sales are anticipated to generate 68 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 17.4% increase, while domestic sales are expected to decline slightly to 27 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7% [5]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for the company's revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 102 billion yuan, 111 billion yuan, and 124 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 12.4 billion yuan, 13.3 billion yuan, and 14.9 billion yuan [31]. - The average return on equity (ROE) is projected to be around 23.4% by 2027, indicating a stable performance [37].

Monetary Policy - The central bank implemented a comprehensive monetary policy with a total reduction of 50 basis points in reserve requirement ratios, expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity and save banks about 22 billion yuan in funding costs[1] - The policy interest rate was lowered by 10 basis points, with the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) expected to decrease by the same margin on the next pricing date[1] Structural Policies - Targeted reserve requirement reductions were made for auto finance and financial leasing companies, bringing their reserve ratios down to 0%, aimed at boosting auto consumption credit[1] - The interest rate on structural monetary policy tools, including the PSL, was reduced by 25 basis points, potentially saving banks around 15-20 billion yuan annually[1] Support for Innovation - The meeting announced an increase in the re-lending quota for technological innovation and technological transformation to 800 billion yuan, alongside the establishment of risk-sharing tools for technology innovation bonds[1] - The central bank's support for technology innovation now extends from indirect financing to direct financing, marking a significant policy shift[3] Economic Outlook - The report indicates a need for continued monetary easing due to an unbalanced economic recovery, with both CPI and PPI remaining in negative territory, and a focus on stabilizing social financing conditions[6] - The external environment, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs, is expected to enhance the likelihood of a more accommodative global policy stance, providing a favorable window for further monetary easing in China[6] Market Stability Measures - The policies aim to stabilize the stock and real estate markets, with specific measures to support capital market activity and ensure liquidity for real estate financing[7] - The government is expected to accelerate the issuance and utilization of fiscal tools, coinciding with a peak in government bond supply in the second quarter[8]

要闻 美国 4 月 ISM 服务业指数 51.6 每日晨报 2025年5月6日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网:zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 ● 宏观:黄金进入震荡期,等待美联储降息。黄金突破区间可能需等待美联储降 息或实物黄金需求爆发。未来需要进一步观察美国经济情况,是滞胀还是衰退, 如果出现滞胀并且美联储并未降息,那么黄金大概率呈现震荡向上。如果进入 衰退,黄金会跟随其他大宗商品回调,直至美联储启动降息。黄金的震荡区间 已经被系统性的提升到 3150 美元至 3550 美元,美联储降息后黄金有望上行 至 3700 美元以上。另外,实物黄金需求旺盛或使得下半年黄金再次上行。 宏观:美国滥施关税影响初步显现——2025年4月 PMI 分析。我们认为政府 ● 债的发行使用将加快,对科技、消费和外贸三个方向重点支持。映射到投资上, 短期经济结构性的特征依旧明显,新质生产力相关行业表现更好,政策支持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company shows resilience in its ready-to-drink cocktail business, with a projected recovery in growth for 2025. The whisky business has entered the product sales phase, which is expected to be a significant highlight for 2025 [6]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast based on the latest performance and increased expectations for whisky business profitability, projecting EPS of 0.77, 1.00, and 1.29 for 2025-2027 [6]. Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profitability - 2024 projected revenue is 30.48 billion, with a decline of 6.61% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected at 7.19 billion, down 11.15% year-on-year [2][6]. - For 2025 Q1, revenue is estimated at 740 million, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to be 180 million, an increase of 7.03% year-on-year [6]. Revenue Growth Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 23.00% for 2025, 23.45% for 2026, and 20.43% for 2027 [2][8]. - The ready-to-drink cocktail business is expected to recover in 2025, with an estimated revenue of around 650 million for Q1 [6]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 69.67% in 2024 to 73.08% by 2027 [2][8]. - The net profit margin is projected to increase from 23.59% in 2024 to 24.37% in 2027 [8]. Valuation Ratios - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 40.87 in 2024 to 20.16 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2][8]. - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 6.27 in 2024 to 4.05 in 2027 [2][8]. Business Segment Insights Ready-to-Drink Cocktails - The ready-to-drink cocktail segment generated 26.8 billion in revenue for 2024, showing a slight decline but with a stable development outlook due to consumer loyalty and ongoing product updates [6]. Whisky Business - The whisky segment has launched new products and is expected to contribute significantly to revenue in 2025, with a strong product pipeline and marketing strategy [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Sailun Tire (601058.SH) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated robust performance with a global expansion strategy, achieving record tire production and sales in 2024, with revenue of 31.802 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.063 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 22.42% and 31.42% respectively [3][4] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.411 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.039 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 15.29% and 0.47% respectively [3] - The company’s tire production and sales reached historical highs in 2024, with production and sales volumes of 74.8111 million and 72.1558 million tires, marking increases of 27.59% and 29.34% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price of tires decreased by 4.19% to 422.78 yuan per tire, while the gross profit margin remained stable at 27.58% [3] - The report highlights the ongoing global capacity expansion, with production bases established in various countries, including Vietnam and Cambodia, and new projects in Mexico and Indonesia expected to commence by 2025 [3][4] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025-2027 is 36.637 billion, 41.238 billion, and 45.063 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 4.237 billion, 5.209 billion, and 5.891 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 4.28%, 22.95%, and 13.10% respectively [4][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.29, 1.58, and 1.79 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 9.51, 7.73, and 6.84 [4][6] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to slightly decline to 25.28% in 2025, while the net profit margin is projected to be 11.56% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by robust growth in its two main business segments, with significant contributions from both waterproofing and coating businesses. The international business is also showing strong growth [6]. - The company reported a revenue of 6.246 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.09% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.45%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 842 million yuan, up 2.46% year-on-year and 67.82% quarter-on-quarter [6]. - The company is expanding its coating business, which saw a remarkable revenue increase of 111.44% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 908 million yuan [6]. - The report forecasts steady revenue growth for the company, with projected revenues of 29.51 billion yuan in 2025, 32.93 billion yuan in 2026, and 35.27 billion yuan in 2027 [2][8]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financial metrics include: - Revenue growth rates of 15.14% for 2024, 14.30% for 2025, 11.58% for 2026, and 7.10% for 2027 [2]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.48 billion yuan in 2025, 5.19 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.74 billion yuan in 2027 [2]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 2.65 yuan in 2025, 3.07 yuan in 2026, and 3.40 yuan in 2027 [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 13.15 in 2024 to 8.35 in 2027, indicating improving valuation [2][8]. Business Strategy - The company is implementing a "One Body, Two Wings" strategy, focusing on expanding its waterproofing and coating businesses while solidifying its leading position in the gypsum board market [6]. - A new industrial coating production base is planned in Anhui, which will enhance the company's market competitiveness in central and southwestern China [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The company has made significant progress in multiple new product layouts, including nuclear power hoses, data center liquid cooling hoses, and ultra-high pressure food sterilization equipment, which are expected to contribute to future growth [1][4]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 484 million yuan, with a slight decline of 0.32% year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be 107 million yuan, down 19.82% year-on-year. However, a strong recovery is anticipated in 2025, with net profits expected to grow by 16.30% to 125 million yuan [6][8]. - The company has achieved a gross margin of 43.26% in 2024, although it has decreased by 4.58 percentage points compared to the previous year. The increase in orders for high-value products, such as acid fracturing hose assemblies, has contributed to a recovery in performance in the first quarter of 2025 [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 48,383.81 million yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 10,721.42 million yuan. In the first quarter of 2025, revenue increased by 23.14% year-on-year to 12,426.35 million yuan, and net profit surged by 86.13% to 3,564.10 million yuan [4][6]. - The projected financial indicators for 2025-2027 include a net profit of 1.25 billion yuan in 2025, 1.44 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.67 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 16.30%, 15.70%, and 16.10% respectively [1][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy financial position with a projected total asset of 1,025.62 million yuan in 2025 and a total liability of 227.41 million yuan [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company Shengda Resources [1]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by rising metal prices and the completion of technical upgrades, which are expected to enhance production capacity [1]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.01 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.66%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million yuan, an increase of 163.56% [4]. - The company is expected to see significant increases in silver and gold production in 2025 due to the completion of upgrades at its Jinshan Mining and the commencement of production at the Caiyuanzi Copper Gold Mine [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.92%, and a net profit of 8.28 million yuan, compared to a loss of 8.78 million yuan in the same period last year [4]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan per 10 shares to all shareholders [4]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 3.02 billion yuan, 4.23 billion yuan, and 4.56 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 50.10%, 39.97%, and 7.73% [6]. Production and Market Outlook - The company anticipates a significant increase in metal production, with silver output expected to rise to 177 tons in 2025 and 236 tons in 2026, representing year-on-year growth of 28.3% and 33.1% respectively [5]. - Gold production is projected to increase dramatically, reaching 707 kg in 2025 and 1,358 kg in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 461.0% and 92.1% [5]. - The completion of technical upgrades at Jinshan Mining is expected to enhance the company's production capabilities significantly [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be 625 million yuan in 2025, 983 million yuan in 2026, and 1.10 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.91, 1.30, and 1.45 [6]. - The projected P/E ratios for the same years are 15.53, 10.80, and 9.67, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [6].