弹性基金销售回落 长江证券研究所金融工程研究小组 2025-08-01 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师及联系人 分析师 覃川桃 SAC执业证书编号：S0490513030001 SFC执业证书编号：BUT353 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 01 资金流向 02 行业配置情况 03 A股热点板块和港股持仓分析 04 总结 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 资金流向 2025Q2主动权益基金加权份额相对于2025Q1继续减少3.21% ⚫ 其中普通股票型减少4.53%，偏股混合型减少2.50%，灵活配置型减少4.18%，平衡混合型减少4.51% 图1：主动权益基金规模走势（单位：亿元） 图2：主动权益基金加权份额走势（单位：亿份） 资料来源：Wind，长江证券研究所 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 ⚫ 加权份额相对于2022Q1峰值回落了24.65% ⚫ 主动权益基金总规模回落至3.43万亿元，相对于2025Q1减少401亿 %% %% %% ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The bank's revenue growth for the first half of the year is 7.5% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 16.0%, driven by improved asset quality and a decrease in the tax rate [2][6] - The loan balance increased by 8.1% compared to the beginning of the year, with a focus on corporate lending while controlling risks [2][12] - The non-performing loan ratio improved to 1.12%, down 2 basis points from the beginning of the year, with a provision coverage ratio of 253%, up 11 percentage points [2][6] - The significant shareholding increase by the state-owned shareholder, Guoxin Group, signals confidence in the bank's long-term development [2][12] - The bank's performance has consistently exceeded expectations since 2024, indicating a robust fundamental outlook that supports a revaluation of its value [2][12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to maintain a double-digit growth in net interest income, attributed to rapid credit expansion and stabilization of net interest margins [12] - The bank's net profit growth is expected to remain high, benefiting from improved asset quality and a lower effective tax rate [12] Loan and Deposit Growth - Loans grew by 8.1% from the beginning of the year, with a quarterly growth rate of 2.6%, focusing on corporate clients [12] - Deposits increased by 7.9% compared to the beginning of the year, with a quarterly growth of 3.9% [12] Asset Quality - The bank's asset quality indicators are improving, with a declining non-performing loan ratio and increasing provision coverage, reaching the best levels since its listing [12] - The expected non-performing loan generation rate for 2024 is projected to be 0.52%, indicating stability in asset quality [12] Strategic Developments - Guoxin Group's planned significant share increase is seen as a strong signal of confidence in the bank's long-term strategy [12] - The bank's governance structure is market-oriented, and the increased stake by Guoxin Group may enhance support from local government resources [12] Investment Outlook - The bank is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with a maintained dividend policy and a projected increase in dividend yield for 2025 [12] - Current valuations indicate significant upside potential, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.67x for A-shares and 0.52x for H-shares, alongside a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.9x for A-shares and 4.6x for H-shares [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - On July 28, the Shanghai Municipal Economic and Information Commission issued measures to further expand the application of artificial intelligence (AI), including a 600 million yuan subsidy for computing power and a 300 million yuan subsidy for model applications [6][12] - The policy aims to lower the cost of using intelligent computing power and accelerate the development and application of large models, with a maximum 30% rent subsidy for computing power rental [6][12] - The focus on high-quality data is emphasized, with a 100 million yuan corpus subsidy to enhance public service platforms for data procurement [12] Summary by Sections Policy Support - Shanghai's AI application support policy is a significant local initiative following similar policies in Shenzhen, Hangzhou, and Suzhou, which is expected to bolster the development of the domestic AI application industry [12] Subsidy Details - The measures include issuing 600 million yuan in computing power vouchers and providing up to 10% construction support for self-deployed intelligent computing facilities [6][12] - A maximum of 500,000 yuan subsidy is available for third-party large model API deployment or private deployment [12] Data Value Enhancement - The issuance of 100 million yuan in corpus vouchers aims to support the procurement of high-quality data, which is crucial for improving model performance [12] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities arising from the policy support for the AI industry, including domestic large model manufacturers, AI-related entities, and the domestic computing power supply chain [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - Meta's Q2 2025 financial report exceeded market expectations with revenue of $47.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22%, and net profit of $18.34 billion, up 36% year-on-year [2][4] - Capital expenditures for Q2 2025 reached $17.01 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 101% [2][4] - The report highlights a robust AI application landscape, indicating a closed loop of investment, model development, application, and monetization is accelerating [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Meta achieved Q2 2025 revenue of $47.52 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of $44.83 billion [2][4] - Net profit for the same period was $18.34 billion, exceeding the expected $15.17 billion [2][4] - Capital expenditures were reported at $17.01 billion, marking a 101% increase year-on-year [2][4] Business Segments - The application family segment generated $47.1 billion in revenue, a 22% increase year-on-year, with advertising revenue at $46.6 billion, up 21% [10] - The Reality Labs segment reported revenue of $370 million, a 5% increase, driven by sales of AI glasses [10] Future Guidance - Projected Q3 2025 revenue is expected to be between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% to 24% [10] - Total expenditures for 2025 are anticipated to be between $114 billion and $118 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20% to 24% [10] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are forecasted to be between $66 billion and $72 billion, slightly above previous estimates [10] AI Ecosystem Development - Meta is expanding its AI-driven advertising models across new platforms, enhancing performance metrics with a 5% increase in Instagram and a 3% increase in Facebook ad conversion rates [10] - The company is actively recruiting top AI talent and has established the Meta Super Intelligence Labs to accelerate AI model and product development [10] - The report emphasizes the high demand for AI applications and the potential for significant investment opportunities in AI agents and cloud service providers [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Microsoft reported FY2025Q4 earnings with revenue of $76.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of $73.9 billion. Net profit reached $27.2 billion, up 24% year-on-year, also surpassing the expected $25.3 billion [2][4] - For the full fiscal year 2025, Microsoft achieved revenue of $281.7 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, exceeding the consensus estimate of $279 billion. Net profit was $101.8 billion, up 16% year-on-year, also above the expected $100.2 billion [2][4] - The AI Foundry platform and Copilot application series are accelerating penetration in downstream markets, confirming strong demand for AI solutions. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities related to AI Agents throughout the year [2][4] Summary by Sections Business Performance - In FY2025Q4, Microsoft's cloud revenue was $46.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27%. The commercial bookings exceeded $100 billion for the first time, up 37% year-on-year [9] - The productivity and business processes segment generated $33.1 billion in revenue, up 16% year-on-year. The intelligent cloud segment reported $29.9 billion, a 26% increase, with Azure and other cloud services growing by 39% [9] - Capital expenditures for FY2025Q4 were $24.2 billion, a 27% increase year-on-year, with over half allocated to long-term assets [9] Future Outlook - Microsoft expects to maintain double-digit revenue and operating profit growth in FY2026, driven by strong demand for cloud and AI products and a substantial contract backlog [9] - For the next quarter, the company anticipates year-on-year growth rates of 14%-15% for productivity and business processes, and 25%-26% for intelligent cloud [9] AI Integration - The Azure AI Foundry has seen rapid adoption, with 14,000 customers, covering 80% of Fortune 500 companies. The Foundry API processed over 500 trillion tokens in FY2025, a year-on-year increase of over 700% [9] - The Copilot application family has over 100 million monthly active users, with significant demand in programming and healthcare sectors [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [10] Core Views - The company has been deeply engaged in the injection molding machine industry for over 50 years, leveraging a "technology + globalization" dual-driven strategy to maintain its leading position in the industry [2][6] - The company is experiencing significant growth in domestic and overseas markets, with a notable increase in export demand for injection molding machines due to the acceleration of overseas factory setups by downstream manufacturers [6][7] - The company plans to continue enhancing its technological research and global layout to strengthen its competitiveness in both domestic and international markets [6][8] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a comprehensive product solution system with electric injection (Changfei series) and servo hydraulic (MA, JU series) solutions, serving various sectors including automotive and medical [6][17] - Injection molding machines are the primary source of revenue, consistently accounting for over 95% of total revenue from 2018 to 2024, with the MA series contributing over 59% of revenue during this period [6][19] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 16.128 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.41%, and a net profit of 3.08 billion yuan, up 23.63% year-on-year [6][19] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue from 2018 to 2024 is 6.83%, while the CAGR for net profit is 8.23% [22][20] - The company has maintained a stable gross margin between 31% and 35% from 2018 to 2024, with a slight increase in net margin from 17.66% to 19.10% [28][30] Market Dynamics - The global injection molding equipment market is expected to reach 16.69 billion USD in 2024, with a projected CAGR of 4.7% until 2030 [50] - China is currently the largest consumer market for injection molding equipment, accounting for 52% of the global market share in 2023 [52] International Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a "50-50 strategy" to balance domestic and international sales, with overseas sales accounting for 37.3% of total revenue in 2024 [6][31] - The company has established production capacities in India and Mexico, with new facilities expected to be operational in Serbia and Japan by 2025 [8][19] Competitive Position - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with significant family control, and a management team with deep industry experience [33][37] - The company is recognized for its strong financial metrics compared to peers, with a leading position in the high-performance injection molding machine sector [8][19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, achieving operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.984 billion yuan, up 14.22% year-on-year, which aligns with expectations [2][6]. - The company has approved a proposal to invest approximately 26.6 billion yuan in the construction of the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support the company's long-term growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 36.587 billion yuan, a 5.02% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.984 billion yuan, reflecting a 14.22% growth compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The performance was supported by favorable water inflow conditions, with the Wudongde reservoir's inflow increasing by 9.01% and the Three Gorges reservoir's inflow rising by 8.39% year-on-year [12]. Project Development - The board approved the investment in the Gezhouba shipping expansion project, which aims to enhance navigation capacity and support the company's high-quality development [12]. - The project involves the construction of new locks and the expansion of navigation channels, with a total construction period of 91 months [12]. Dividend and Valuation - The company maintains a long-term commitment to a minimum dividend payout ratio of 70%, positioning itself as a strong dividend stock [12]. - The expected dividend yield compared to the ten-year government bond yield has reached the 98.60th percentile for 2023, indicating a favorable investment value [12]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 are projected at 1.38 yuan, 1.45 yuan, and 1.46 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 20.24, 19.22, and 19.06 [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the refrigerant industry [13]. Core Insights - The refrigerant industry is experiencing a price increase under quota control since 2024, with significant price rises observed for various refrigerants. The sustainability and potential for further price increases are areas of market concern, which the report aims to explore [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the price increase is not driven by traditional supply-demand mismatches but rather reflects a new operational model in the industry. The supply side is characterized by high concentration and limited capacity for new entrants, particularly in China, which holds a dominant position in production and market share [8][40]. Summary by Sections Price Sustainability - The sustainability of price increases is linked to the current position of products within their cycles. The report suggests that refrigerants have moved beyond traditional cyclical logic, indicating a potential for long-term price increases [8][36]. - The supply side is constrained, with a high concentration of market players and limited ability to increase supply globally. This is further supported by the fact that the domestic market has significant production power [8][40]. Price Potential - The report discusses the potential for price increases, noting that the historical price elasticity of refrigerants allows for significant price tolerance. For instance, R32's price has risen from 1.70 million yuan/ton to 5.40 million yuan/ton, reflecting a 217.6% increase [23]. - The report argues that the long-term production costs of alternative refrigerants (like R1234yf) do not set a ceiling for the prices of existing refrigerants, suggesting that the price of third-generation refrigerants could continue to rise [9][69]. Long-term Investment Value - The report concludes that the refrigerant industry holds substantial long-term investment value, with companies increasingly approaching traditional chemical product valuation peaks. The ongoing price increases and the unique market dynamics suggest that related companies may be undervalued [10][11]. - Specific companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Dongyue Group, Yonghe Co., and Haohua Technology are recommended for continued investment due to their strong market positions and growth potential [11].

Investment Rating - The semiconductor industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [13] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery driven by AI demand and a gradual easing of geopolitical tensions, leading to a more optimistic outlook for the domestic semiconductor sector [4][7][22] - The overall demand for semiconductor products remains resilient, with AI-enabled growth expected to drive a new wave of demand in the second half of 2025 [8][39] - Supply-side dynamics are improving, with domestic wafer fabs benefiting from increased demand and a high utilization rate, while international supply chains are adjusting due to geopolitical factors [9][54] Demand Summary - Terminal product sales showed a steady upward trend in early 2025, with notable growth in small-sized laptops and tablets driven by domestic subsidies and AI trends [8][39] - The global smartphone shipment reached 295 million units in Q2 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.00% [40] - The automotive sector, particularly in smart driving, saw significant growth, with sales of new energy vehicles increasing by 26.72% year-on-year in June 2025 [41] Supply Summary - Domestic wafer fabs are benefiting from a recovery in demand and maintaining high utilization rates, with China's integrated circuit production reaching 45.1 billion units in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [54] - The supply chain is experiencing regional shifts, with Japan's production indices showing declines, while Taiwan's wafer sales prices are adjusting due to increased orders shifting to mainland China [57] Inventory Summary - The global semiconductor industry continues to experience a destocking trend, with inventory levels in Japan and Taiwan decreasing, indicating a healthier inventory situation [10] - The expectation of a new growth cycle driven by AI-related demand and macroeconomic recovery supports the view of potential price and volume increases in the semiconductor sector [10]

行业研究丨深度报告丨海运 [Table_Title] 潮起潮落，浪涌千帆 ——干散货海运行业研究框架 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 干散货海运行业是源于全球贸易往来，使用干散货船在全球范围内进行国际干散货整船运输的 海运板块，从货运量看占海运行业半壁江山，其货种主要可分为大宗和小宗散货，货量比为 6:4， 商业模式为市场撮合签订租船合同。从格局和产业链看，行业服务于全球工业原材料加工， CR10 仅 15.5%，为完全竞争市场，运价由供需差决定，展现出"强周期，雨打萍"的特征。 本篇作为干散货海运行业第一篇系列文，依次解答 1）是什么，低集中度的顺周期行业；2）怎 么算，以 2017 年为例具体测算；3）如何看，投资维度上梳理跟踪指标、估值方法和全球标的。 [Table_Summary2] 【是什么】干散货海运：需求外生供给刚性，低集中度的顺周期行业 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 韩轶超 魏爱晓 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQK468 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 36 ...