Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (伊利股份) [3][5] Core Views - Yili Co., Ltd. emphasizes a strategy focused on quality leadership, horizontal expansion, and vertical upgrades, aiming for balanced growth and profitability while enhancing shareholder returns [2][4] - Despite short-term demand pressures, the company has stabilized its liquid milk market share, with other business segments performing well and continuous improvement in net profit margins [5] - The company plans to focus on the recovery of liquid milk, performance improvement under supply-demand balance, and new growth drivers from deep processing, health products, and overseas markets [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yili Co., Ltd. held an investor day on November 18, 2025, where management discussed the five-year development plan, highlighting the potential for increased per capita consumption of dairy products in China [2] Financial Performance - The company expects earnings per share (EPS) of 1.76 CNY and 1.94 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a valuation of 16.7X for 2025 [5] - The projected total revenue for 2025 is 116.53 billion CNY, with a slight increase of 0.6% year-on-year [6][14] Business Segments - Liquid Milk: The company is shifting from extensive growth to high-quality growth through product innovation and brand enhancement, aiming for positive growth ahead of the industry by 2026 [4][5] - Infant Formula: The "Golden Crown" brand has maintained over 15% compound growth in the past five years, with a target to achieve over 25% market share [4] - Deep Processing: The deep processing sector is rapidly developing, with significant market potential driven by consumption upgrades [4] International Expansion - Yili Co., Ltd. is committed to international growth, with targets for double-digit compound growth in markets like Indonesia and Thailand, and a 20% growth target in the Australian market [4] Shareholder Returns - The company has announced a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for the years 2025-2027, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 CNY per share for 2024 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.O) [2] Core Insights - Pinduoduo's Q3 2025 revenue reached 108.3 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9%, with advertising revenue at 53.35 billion yuan, up 8%, slightly below expectations. Non-GAAP net profit was 31.4 billion yuan, a 14.3% increase year-over-year, exceeding expectations. The company plans to continue significant investments in its ecosystem, which may impact short-term profits but is expected to drive sustainable high-quality growth in the long term [1][4] - The company is optimistic about the long-term growth potential of its domestic business and overseas markets, despite short-term fluctuations in profits due to increased ecosystem investments and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][4] Financial Data Summary - For 2023, the total revenue is projected at 247.639 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 90%. The net profit is expected to be 67.899 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase. The EPS (Non-GAAP) is projected at 6.79 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.9 [2][7] - The financial forecasts for 2024 to 2027 indicate continued growth, with total revenue expected to reach 557.912 billion yuan by 2027, and net profit projected at 162.547 billion yuan [2][5][7] Stock Performance - The stock has shown a 1-month absolute performance of 0.4%, a 6-month performance of 9.9%, and a 12-month performance of 10.0%. However, the relative performance over 12 months is down by 24.2% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company has shown signs of operational efficiency improvement, with Q3 revenue and profit beginning to recover after a challenging first half of the year [7] - The introduction of the "AI Private Network" strategy aims to transition traditional communication to intelligent collaboration, addressing the increasing demands for security, efficiency, and intelligence from commercial users [7] - Increased R&D investment is being made to tackle patent challenges and enhance the company's technological independence, with significant progress in proprietary communication technology standards [7] - Ongoing litigation may create uncertainty regarding profit levels, with potential financial implications from various legal cases [7] Financial Data and Valuation - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 56.53 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 0%. The operating profit is expected to be 2.03 billion, reflecting a decline of 43% [2][13] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -3.88 billion in 2023, indicating a significant year-on-year decrease of 195% [2][13] - The company’s PE ratio is projected to be -55.1 for 2023, improving to 62.0 by 2025 [2][14] - The total assets are estimated at 118.20 billion for 2023, with a debt ratio of 48.9% [12][14] Stock Performance - The current stock price is 11.75 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 21.4 billion [3] - The stock has shown a relative performance decline of 60% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [5] Shareholder Information - The major shareholder is Chen Qingzhou, holding a 39.2% stake in the company [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights a return of inflation trading, with consumer goods showing a positive trend in performance [1][8] - The overall industry size is significant, with a total market capitalization of 18,186 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,721.2 billion [1] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Analysis - Retail sales growth year-on-year is at 2.9%, with a slight recovery in October due to the holiday effect, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.16% [6] - The restaurant sector saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.8% in October, while jewelry sales surged by 37.6% [6][7] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October, indicating a gradual recovery in service consumption [7] Food and Beverage Sector - October inflation data exceeded expectations, with both CPI and PPI showing improvements, suggesting a potential recovery in profitability for the food and beverage sector [8] - Companies like Haidilao and Anjuke are expected to perform well due to improved demand and operational strategies [9][10] Textile and Apparel Sector - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing stable overseas demand, with major brands like NIKE showing signs of recovery [12] - Recommendations include focusing on leading manufacturers with optimized order structures and production efficiency [12] Tobacco Sector - The report recommends companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, highlighting their stable growth and market positioning [16] Home Appliances Sector - The report suggests focusing on leading white goods manufacturers like Midea Group, which has shown stable operational performance [17] Retail and E-commerce - The report notes a significant increase in e-commerce sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with a total sales growth of 14.2% [24] - Companies like JD.com are expected to maintain robust growth, with a projected non-GAAP net profit of 318 billion for 2025 [25] Pharmaceutical Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry, recommending companies like Innovent Biologics and 3SBio for their strong project pipelines [27] Agriculture Sector - The report indicates a rapid reduction in sow production capacity, suggesting a potential increase in pig prices in 2026 [28]

银行研思录 26 资本和风险分类新规过渡期结束压力测算 总量研究/银行 2023 年 2 月发布的《商业银行金融资产风险分类办法》正式将非信贷资产也纳 入五级分类的计量范围，随后 2023 年 11 月 1 日发布的《商业银行资本管理办 法》，对银行信贷及非信贷资产拨备计提，以及超额拨备/拨备缺口的资本计量 提出了明确的要求，上述规定的过渡期将于 2025 年 12 月 31 日结束。 本期研思录复盘《风险分类新规》和《资本新规》的风险计量和拨备计提相关 监管规定，并基于此对 56 家 A、H 股上市银行的拨备计提达标压力进行测算， 供投资者参考。 证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 11 月 18 日 2、《银行股息率排名与中期分红进 度梳理—银行研思录 25》2025-11-14 3、《M1 增速开启下行—2025 年 10 月金融数据点评》2025-11-13 王先爽 S1090524100006 wangxianshuang@cmschina.com. cn 文雪阳 S1090524110001 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that insurance funds continue to flow into the stock market, while uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has increased [2][4][55] - As of the end of Q3, the total balance of insurance funds reached 37.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-to-date growth of 12.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [4][8] - The proportion of equity assets held by insurance funds has risen to a historical high of 14.85%, with total equity assets amounting to 5.56 trillion yuan [4][10] Group 2 - In terms of liquidity, the report notes that the net inflow of funds in the secondary market has narrowed, with a decrease in financing balance and net selling of financing funds amounting to 8.2 billion yuan [4][25] - The report highlights that the net inflow of ETFs was 123.1 billion yuan, while the issuance of new equity public funds decreased [4][25] - The report identifies a preference for sectors such as power equipment, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, which saw significant net inflows from various funds [44][45] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, which have led to a downward adjustment of interest rate cut expectations for the year [55][56] - It emphasizes that the market's risk appetite is influenced by the lack of key economic data due to the government shutdown, creating a need for clearer signals to reduce uncertainty [2][55] - The report also notes that the VIX index has risen, indicating a decline in market risk appetite [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company is the world's second-largest producer of lithium hexafluorophosphate, with a strong integrated layout and leading technology in crystalline hexafluoride. The demand for lithium batteries is expected to continue growing, leading to a significant rebound in hexafluoride supply and demand, with prices increasing over 170% from the bottom. This business is projected to contribute significantly to profits next year [1][7]. - The cylindrical battery business is starting to gain traction, with the company expected to become a key player in this field, contributing positively to profitability [1][27]. - The company has a comprehensive advantage in the hexafluoride sector, with a complete industrial chain from raw materials to lithium batteries, which enhances cost advantages [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Comprehensive Advantages in Hexafluoride - The company has established a complete industrial chain for hexafluoride production, significantly reducing raw material costs [10]. - It is the first domestic company to achieve breakthroughs in high-purity crystalline hexafluorophosphate technology, simplifying operations and improving raw material utilization [10][7]. 2. Reversal in Hexafluoride Supply and Demand - The hexafluoride market is experiencing a reversal in supply and demand, with prices rising sharply due to increased demand from the lithium battery sector. The average price has surged from 50,000 yuan/ton to over 150,000 yuan/ton [13][14]. - The company has a diverse customer base, with less than 30% of revenue coming from its top five customers, allowing it to be more sensitive to price increases [14][13]. 3. Growth in Cylindrical Battery Business - The company has been developing its battery business for over a decade, focusing on cylindrical batteries, which are now seeing significant demand in various sectors [27]. - The company aims to achieve a shipment volume of over 10 GWh in 2025, with expectations to reach 20-30 GWh in subsequent years [27][28]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of approximately 10.26 billion yuan in 2025, with a significant increase projected for 2026 and 2027 [33][32]. - The gross profit margin for the hexafluoride business is expected to improve significantly, with projections of 28% in 2025 and 41% in 2026 [32][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Tencent Music [2][5] Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of 8.46 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, with adjusted net profit increasing by 32.6% to 2.41 billion RMB [1][5] - Online music revenue continues to grow steadily, with a 27.2% year-on-year increase to 6.97 billion RMB, driven by subscription and advertising services [5][6] - The company is actively expanding into the fan economy and concert business, enhancing its competitive advantages through collaborations and content diversification [5][6] Financial Performance - Revenue and profit growth are supported by effective cost control, with gross margin improving from 42.6% in Q3 2024 to 43.5% in Q3 2025 [5][6] - The online music subscription revenue reached 4.5 billion RMB, up 17.2% year-on-year, driven by an increase in ARPPU from 10.8 RMB to 11.9 RMB [5][6] - The company expects revenues to reach 32.66 billion RMB, 36.98 billion RMB, and 41.30 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with adjusted net profits projected at 9.60 billion RMB, 10.85 billion RMB, and 12.18 billion RMB [6][8] Market Position and Strategy - Tencent Music holds a strong position in content copyright, with a focus on enhancing user willingness to pay and optimizing membership benefits [5][6] - The company is expanding its concert business, having successfully hosted multiple performances in various cities, attracting over 150,000 attendees [5][6] - The introduction of interactive fan communities and exclusive artist-related benefits is expected to drive further growth in subscription rates and user engagement [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strongly recommended" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Vipshop, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [17][20][21]. Core Insights - The overall e-commerce sales during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival reached 1,695 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [5][24]. - JD.com achieved record sales during the 11.11 event, with a 40% increase in the number of orders and nearly 60% growth in order volume [2][26]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the local life services sector, particularly Meituan, which maintains long-term competitive advantages despite competitive pressures [17]. Summary by Sections E-commerce Sector - The report emphasizes the low valuations of leading e-commerce companies, recommending Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD.com, and Vipshop as key investment opportunities [17][20]. - Alibaba's e-commerce monetization rate is steadily improving, with significant growth potential in its cloud and AI businesses [17]. - Pinduoduo is expected to see sustainable growth driven by its support plan for merchants and improving global market prospects [20]. Local Life Services - Meituan's long-term investment value remains intact despite short-term competitive disruptions, with a focus on high-value users and operational efficiency [17]. Travel and Tourism - The travel sector is projected to maintain high growth, with recommendations for companies in the OTA and scenic spots, as well as transportation and hotel sectors driven by business travel demand [17]. - The report notes that the restaurant and tourism index rose by 4.81%, outperforming major indices [5][6]. Retail Sector - The report suggests focusing on quality retail trends, with companies like Yonghui adapting to consumer trust and product quality [17]. - The retail sector is experiencing significant growth, with notable increases in various product categories during the Double Eleven sales [5][24].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has a strong foundation in the linear drive industry, with products spanning smart home, office, medical, and automotive sectors. It has maintained vertical integration in manufacturing and has begun global expansion [1][7]. - The company has made early investments in the robotics sector, focusing on key components such as motors and reducers, and is expected to achieve breakthroughs in this area [1][7]. - The financial statements indicate solid performance, with a healthy cash position and potential for new business development, despite recent profit margin declines due to external factors [7][21]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 1,234 million RMB in 2023 to 1,774 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15% [2]. - Operating profit is expected to fluctuate, with a peak of 131 million RMB in 2023, followed by a decline to 61 million RMB in 2025, before recovering to 143 million RMB in 2027 [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from 108 million RMB in 2023 to 49 million RMB in 2025, with a recovery to 117 million RMB by 2027 [2]. Business Overview - The company has established itself as a leading player in the domestic linear drive industry, with a comprehensive manufacturing system that includes mold development, core component production, and complete assembly [7][32]. - The company has successfully expanded from home applications to automotive components, particularly in electric tailgate systems, which are now part of the supply chains for several major automotive manufacturers [37]. Market Position - The global linear actuator market was valued at approximately 2.32 billion USD in 2020, with expectations to reach around 3.2 billion USD by 2024, indicating a robust growth trajectory [18]. - The company holds an estimated market share of 6% in the linear actuator market, with competitors like Jiechang Drive holding a larger share of approximately 15.7% [18]. Future Prospects - The company is well-positioned to leverage its existing capabilities in linear drive systems to penetrate the robotics market, with ongoing development of specialized components for robotic applications [41]. - The establishment of a new manufacturing base in Vietnam and ongoing projects in the U.S. are expected to enhance the company's global footprint and operational efficiency [33].