证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 5 月 25 日 利率择时信号维持看空 ——利率市场趋势定量跟踪 20250523 利率市场结构变化 - 10 年期国债到期收益率录得 1.72%，相对上周升高 4.15BP。当前 利率水平、期限和凸性结构读数分别为 1.58%、0.27%、-0.04%， 从均值回归视角看，目前处于水平结构点位较低、期限结构点位 较低、凸性结构点位较低的状态。 利率价量周期择时信号：看空 - 利率数据的多周期择时信号为：长周期无信号、中周期向上突破、 短周期向上突破。综合来看，当前合计下行突破 0 票、上行突破 2 票，由于 3 种周期下的同向突破总得票数达到 2/3，最终信号的综 合评分结果为看空。 公募债基行为跟踪：久期微降、分歧微降 利率价量多周期择时策略表现 - 自 2023 年底以来，策略的短期年化收益率为 7.5%，最大回撤为 1.61%，收益回撤比为 6.43，相对业绩基准的超额收益率为 2.35%。 过去的 18 年内，策略逐年绝对收益大于 0 的胜率为 100%，逐年超 额收益大于 0 的胜率为 100%。 - 公募基金最新久期（计入杠杆后）中位数读数为 3.09 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 销售市场热度延续低位震荡，竣工同比结束阶段性回升 房地产行业最新观点及 25 年 1-4 月数据深度解读 总量研究/房地产 4 月新开工面积基期调整同比增速为-22.1%（较上月减少 4.0pct），根据拿 地对新开工的领先关系，维持判断"新开工跌幅或在 25 年上半年呈逐步收窄 趋势"；中期角度，若总购房需求在净租金回报率与贷款利率差收窄之下逐 步企稳，新开工或在房企"以销定投"的持续策略下呈现紧平衡状态； 4 月房地产开发投资金额基期调整同比增速为-11.3%（较上月减少 1.3pct）， 投资同比同步于施工面积同比回落，过去一段时间销售市场热度回升带动下 的施工强度提升或相对有限，或反映去库存仍是房企的重要目标； ❑ 4 月到位资金基期调整同比增速为-5.3%（较上月减少 1.5pct），结构上，"国 内贷款"同比增速持续高于"新开工"或与"白名单"融资模式下部分房企 借新还旧以及调整融资渠道等有关；"自筹资金"同比增速趋势与"新开工" 基本一致；"销售类到位资金"同比同步于"销售金额"回落； 4 月末房地产行业资金链指数趋势回落（112 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.38 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.2%. Adjusted EBITDA and net profit were 1.16 billion yuan and 790 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 41.3% and 41.1% [1][7]. - Domestic travel demand remains robust, supported by improved commission rates and sustained leisure travel demand. The company's revenue is expected to continue its high growth trend, aided by the ongoing expansion of international business and cost optimization [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2023 at 11.9 billion yuan, 2024 at 17.3 billion yuan, 2025E at 19.3 billion yuan, 2026E at 21.9 billion yuan, and 2027E at 24.4 billion yuan, with growth rates of 81%, 46%, 11%, 13%, and 12% respectively [3][9]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is projected at 2.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 33% [3][9]. - The company’s current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio based on non-GAAP earnings is 19.5 for 2023, decreasing to 10.0 by 2027 [3][10]. Business Performance - In Q1 2025, the company’s revenue from accommodation bookings, transportation tickets, vacation services, and other businesses were 1.19 billion yuan, 2.00 billion yuan, 590 million yuan, and 600 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +23.3%, +15.2%, -11.8%, and +20.0% respectively [7]. - The company’s average monthly paying users increased by 9.2% year-on-year to 46.5 million, with annual paying users reaching 250 million, a 7.8% increase [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 68.8%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 18.0%, up 3.6 percentage points from the previous year [7]. - The company has effectively reduced costs and improved efficiency, leading to a notable enhancement in profitability [7].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 从 300 质量成长走强看 A 股核心资产崛起 ——A 股投资策略周报（0525） 5 月以来，A 股出现了不一样的变化，300 质量成长等质量类指数开始走强，以长 期内在回报为基础进行投资，买入高自由现金流收益率，高 SIRR 的股票的投资理 念逐渐被市场接受。随着经济稳定，龙头上市公司经营趋于稳定，现金流量净额开 始稳定增长，资本开支稳定下降，自由现金流收益率持续攀升，未来两年 A 股权重 指数有望迎来重估。当前小盘因子交易集中度达到极限，量化新规即将实施，监管 加大对操纵市场的处罚宣导，公募长期战胜基准也需要靠买入公司的内在价值的积 累，以上均有助于市场回归大盘、质量。当前弱美元趋势已成，人民币持续走强， 以 300 质量成长为代表的核心资产和质量因子有望再度崛起。 定期报告 相关报告 《首批浮动费率基金申报，4 月金 融数据有何影响——A 股投资策 略周报（0517）》 《〈推动公募基金高质量发展行 动方案〉对 A 股可能的影响——A 股投资策略周报（0510）》 《四月政治局会议的要点与对 A 股的影响——A 股投资策略周报 （042 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for Xiaomi Group [1][6] Core Views - The launch of the self-developed chip "Xuanjie O1" marks a significant milestone for Xiaomi, enhancing its high-end product strategy and ecosystem integration [5][6] - Xiaomi's various business segments, including smartphones, IoT, and internet services, are expected to experience sustained growth, driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion [5][6] - The upcoming release of the Xiaomi YU7 SUV is anticipated to strengthen the company's position in the automotive market, with advanced features and performance metrics [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 517.9 billion, 701.4 billion, and 895.6 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profits of 43.8 billion, 67.6 billion, and 89.3 billion CNY [7] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 27.7, 18.0, and 13.6 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7] Product Launches - The Xiaomi 15S Pro features the Xuanjie O1 chip, with a starting price of 5499 CNY, and is positioned as a high-end smartphone [5][20] - The Xiaomi Pad 7 Ultra, also equipped with the Xuanjie O1 chip, is priced from 5699 CNY and represents Xiaomi's entry into the high-end tablet market [5][38] - The Xiaomi Watch S4, featuring the Xuanjie T1 chip, is priced at 1299 CNY and offers advanced connectivity and health monitoring features [5][52] Automotive Sector - The Xiaomi YU7 SUV is set to launch in July, featuring a luxurious design, advanced safety features, and a maximum range of 835 km [5][61][73] - The YU7 will be equipped with cutting-edge technology, including NVIDIA Thor chips and laser radar, enhancing its performance and safety [5][61][84] Research and Development - Xiaomi has invested approximately 102 billion CNY in R&D over the past five years, with plans to invest an additional 200 billion CNY from 2026 to 2030 [5][6]

量化基金周度跟踪（20250519-20250523） 本报告重点聚焦量化基金市场表现，总结近一周主要指数和量化基金业绩表现、 不同类型公募量化基金整体表现和业绩分布，以及本周收益表现较优的量化基 金，供投资者参考。 市场整体表现： 本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）A 股整体收跌，量化基金表现分化。 主要指数表现： 证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 5 月 24 日 A 股整体收跌，量化指增平均录得正超额 主要股指下跌，其中沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000 近一周收益率分别为 -0.18%、-1.10%、-1.29%。 各类基金表现： 本周量化基金收益表现分化，主动量化跌 0.28%；市场中性跌 0.12%。指 数增强型基金平均录得正超额，其中中证 500 指增和中证 1000 指增超额 收益较高，分别为 0.48%、0.34%。 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 江帆 研究助理 jiangfan ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in the advanced metal new materials sector, focusing on key demands and serving strategic emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy, electronic information, and high-end equipment, indicating significant growth potential [1][14]. - The company has shown continuous growth in net profit, with a 49.26% year-on-year increase in 2024, despite a 7.50% decline in revenue [7][26]. - The company is actively involved in technological innovation, participating in 13 national-level research projects and obtaining 8 new patents in 2024 [7][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in December 1998 and listed in May 2000, the company is a core platform for metal new materials under China Steel Research Group, focusing on R&D, production, and sales of advanced metal materials and products [14][15]. - The company serves over 50 countries and regions, with a strong reputation in the industry [15]. Business Segments - The company operates in four main business segments: high-end powder metallurgy materials, advanced functional materials, high-speed tool steel, and environmental engineering materials, serving various industries including aerospace, nuclear power, and high-end medical devices [15][19]. Tungsten and Molybdenum Industry - The company maintains a leading position in the tungsten and molybdenum sector, with a revenue of 2.022 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 22.98% year-on-year growth [36][38]. - The company is the largest deep-processing enterprise for tungsten and molybdenum in China, with a significant market share in various applications [37][38]. Rare Earth Magnetic Materials - The company has a production capacity of 12,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron and plans to expand to 20,000 tons, focusing on smart production and high-end market services [7][36]. - The recovery in consumer electronics and the growth of humanoid robots and new energy vehicles provide growth opportunities in the permanent magnet sector [7][36]. Amorphous and Nanocrystalline Materials - The company signed contracts worth 1.17 billion yuan in 2024, with a revenue of 974 million yuan and a net profit of 51.35 million yuan, showing significant growth in this segment [7][10]. - The company is actively developing the amorphous strip market and has invested in a new 10,000-ton amorphous strip project [7][10]. Nuclear Fusion Market - The nuclear fusion sector presents a broad market prospect, with the company developing a full range of tungsten products for international fusion projects, generating approximately 40 million yuan in revenue in 2024 [7][10]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 387 million, 444 million, and 499 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 34.3, 29.9, and 26.6 [8].

证券研究报告 | 债券点评报告 2025 年 05 月 24 日 债市情绪走弱——债市晴雨表 【债市情绪】上周债市情绪指数为 113.3，较前值回落 0.9；债市情绪扩散指数 42.4%，较前值回落 10.5 个百分点。 【机构久期】上周五基金久期为 2.17 年，较前一周五持平；农商行久期为 2.84 年，较前一周五回升 0.02 年；保险久期为 6.74 年，较前一周五回落 0.03 年。 【杠杆率】上周质押式回购余额为 10.6 万亿元，较前值回落 0.4 万亿元；大行 净融出余额为 3.1 万亿元，较前值回落 0.7 万亿元；债市杠杆率为 103.4%，较 前值回落 0.1 个百分点。 【二级成交】上周从换手率来看，30Y 国债换手率为 1.9%，较前值回落 0.8 个 百分点。10Y 国债换手率为 1.0%，较前值持平；10Y 国开债换手率为 29.3%， 较前值回落 2.6 个百分点；超长期信用债换手率为 0.47%，较前值回升 0.07 个 百分点。 【配置力量】债市配置力量来看，上周债基新发行份额为 63 亿元，较前值回落 129 亿元；风险偏好来看，股市风险溢价为 1.36%，较前值回落 0 ...

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 05 月 24 日 港股创新药 ETF 领涨，资金大幅流入债券 ETF ETF 基金周度跟踪（0519-0523） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）主投 A 股的 ETF 涨跌不一。其中，医药生物 ETF 涨幅较大，规模以上基金平均上涨 1.76%；TMT ETF 跌幅最深，规模 以上基金平均下跌 2.06%。此外，本周商品 ETF 涨幅最大，规模以上基金 平均上涨 3.04%。 基金研究（公募） 一、ETF 市场整体表现 市场表现方面，本周（5 月 19 日-5 月 23 日）主投 A 股的 ETF 涨跌不一。其中， 医药生物 ETF 涨幅较大，规模以上基金平均上涨 1.76%；TMT ETF 跌幅最深， 规模以上基金平均下跌 2.06%。此外，本周商品 ETF 涨幅最大，规模以上基金 平均上涨 3.04%。 图 1：ETF 基金-市场表现 ❑ 资金流动： 资 ...

本周低波风格强劲，招商量化中证 1000 指增近一周超额 1.03% ——因子周报 20250523 金融工程 1. 主要市场指数与风格表现回顾 本周主要宽基指数均下跌。沪深 300 下跌 0.18%，中证 800 下跌 0.41%， 深证成指下跌 0.46%，上证指数下跌 0.57%，创业板指下跌 0.88%，中证 500 下跌 1.10%，中证 1000 下跌 1.29%，中证 2000 下跌 1.52%，北证 50 下跌 3.68%。 从行业来看，综合、医药、汽车、有色金属、家电等行业表现居前；通信、 机械、电子、计算机、综合金融等行业表现居后。 从风格因子来看，最近一周 Beta 因子、波动性因子、流动性因子的表现尤 为突出，因子多空收益分别为-3.60%、-2.66%和-2.38%。 2. 选股因子表现跟踪 沪深 300 股票池中，本周盈余质量、单季度营业收入同比增速、单季度 CFEV 因子表现较好。中证 500 股票池中，本周 60 日成交量变异系数、20 日成交量 变异系数、20 日换手率波动因子表现较好。中证 800 股票池中，本周盈余质量、 股息率、240 日偏度因子表现较好。中证 1000 ...