Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Standing at the end of December and looking forward to January, investors' judgments on the future bond market trend are relatively concentrated: they maintain a preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds and adopt a defensive approach overall. The intensity and rhythm of fiscal policy and the supply pressure of government bonds have become the core concerns of investors [1]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of December, there are five mainstream expectations for the January bond market: investors' expectations for the upper and lower limits of long - term Treasury yields are neutral, showing a range - bound state; "Short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the mainstream expectation for the overall bond market trend; in bond market operations, the mainstream views are to hold cash and wait or keep positions basically stable; fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance are the most concerned core issues, and monetary policy and the capital market remain key concerns; investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased [2]. Summary by Related Catalog 1. 1 - month Bond Market Outlook - **Survey Background**: A bond market questionnaire was released on December 26, 2025, and 123 valid questionnaires were received by 8:00 on December 29, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - **Long - term Treasury Yield Expectations** - **10 - year Treasury (250016)**: 50% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive) range, and 56% think the upper limit will fall in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. Current investors' expectations for the rise of the 10 - year Treasury interest rate have gradually increased compared with the November survey results [12][13]. - **30 - year Treasury (250006)**: 37% of investors think the lower limit of the yield will fall in the 2.15% - 2.20% (inclusive) range, and 44% think the upper limit will fall in the 2.25% - 2.30% range. Since December, the 30 - year Treasury yield has shown an overall oscillating trend, and investors expect it to oscillate downward in the next month [14]. - **Expectations for Monetary Policy** - **2026 Policy Adjustments**: 67% of investors think there will be one reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026, and 69% think there will be one interest rate cut [18]. - **Q1 2026 Policy**: 68% of investors think there will be a reserve requirement ratio cut in Q1 2026, but opinions on whether to cut interest rates vary, showing an overall expectation of "biased towards easing, but the path is undetermined" [20]. - **Market Buying Power after New Year**: 45% of investors think the bond market's major logic will remain unchanged after the New Year, and the buying power will remain weak. The overall expectation of the bond market's capital situation after the New Year is "cautious overall, with structural differences" [23]. - **January Bond Market Trends**: Investors do not have a strong consensus on a single direction for the January bond market. The expectation shows a pattern of "cautiously optimistic, structure - dominated", and "short - term strength and long - term weakness" is the most mainstream market expectation [25]. - **Current Bond Market Operations**: In December, most investors were neutral in actual operations. Holding cash and waiting to add positions after a callback and keeping positions basically stable were still the mainstream views. The proportion of those who could start adding positions decreased slightly, and the proportion of those who reduced duration to control risks increased [27]. - **January Bond Market Pricing Logic**: Fiscal stimulus and government bond issuance have become the most concerned core issues, with the proportion rising from 14% in the November survey to 27%. The focus of bond market investors has shifted to "fiscal policy" [28]. - **Preferred Bond Types in January**: Investors' preference for medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds has increased, and their preference for interbank certificates of deposit has also rebounded. The preference for ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds and secondary capital bonds has decreased, indicating that investors may pay more attention to liquidity protection and short - term certainty [32].

Core Insights - The report discusses the phenomenon of shrinking volume in the stock market, particularly focusing on the Shanghai Composite Index, and its implications for market trends. It highlights that a short-term increase in the index often occurs after a period of shrinking volume, but the likelihood of continued growth diminishes over a longer timeframe [1][12][13]. Group 1: Market Behavior After Volume Shrinkage - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a tendency to continue rising one week after a shrinking volume, with a probability of 43.5% for an increase of over 1% [12][13]. - In contrast, the likelihood of a decline increases over a month, with a 47.4% chance of a drop exceeding 1% [13]. - The report emphasizes that shrinking volume can indicate optimistic market sentiment, leading to fewer sell orders, which can support price increases in the short term [2][12]. Group 2: Conditions for Continued Market Upward Movement - External factors such as improved economic conditions, better-than-expected fundamentals, and expectations of loose monetary policy can support continued upward movement after a shrinking volume [3][18]. - A favorable micro liquidity environment and the influx of new capital, such as significant issuance of equity funds, can also sustain upward trends despite shrinking volume [20][28]. - Even in cases of weak economic fundamentals, unexpected macro policy actions can restore market confidence and allow for further upward movement [4][23]. Group 3: External Factors Leading to Market Adjustments - Increased pressure on economic fundamentals, tightening monetary policy, and significant fluctuations in global commodity markets can trigger market corrections following periods of shrinking volume [5][29]. - Unexpected external shocks, such as escalations in trade tensions, can also lead to market pullbacks after a period of rising prices on shrinking volume [5][37].

Market Overview - On December 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.04%, while the CSI 300 fell by 0.38%. The STAR 50 increased by 0.04%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.15%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.66%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.71% [4][5]. - The best-performing industries on December 29 were Oil & Petrochemicals (+1.48%), Defense & Military (+1.43%), Banking (+1.03%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry & Fishery (+0.71%), and Automotive (+0.41%). The worst-performing industries included Nonferrous Metals (-1.95%), Utilities (-1.24%), Electric Equipment (-1.13%), Building Materials (-1.11%), and Food & Beverage (-1.06%) [4][5]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on December 29 was 21,577 billion yuan, with net outflow of southbound funds amounting to 3.414 billion HKD [4][5]. Key Recommendations - The report focuses on the company Xingsen Technology (002436), highlighting its comprehensive PCB product system and meticulous process capabilities [6]. - The driving factors for the company include the upgrade of PCB processes driven by AI, leading to an expanding market space. Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 7,150.01 million yuan, 8,920.01 million yuan, and 11,250.01 million yuan, with growth rates of 22.91%, 24.76%, and 26.12% respectively. Net profits are expected to be 154.57 million yuan, 435.16 million yuan, and 830.26 million yuan, with growth rates of -181.52%, 90.79%, and 90.79% respectively [6][8]. - The catalysts for growth include the AI-driven upgrade of PCB processes [6]. Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to see innovation breakthroughs and favorable policy changes leading to a turning point in the sector's fundamentals. The report notes that the market lacks further catalysts for the pharmaceutical sector [7][9]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued innovation in drugs and medical devices, driven by improved payment and access policies for innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine [9]. - The beauty and personal care industry is characterized by intense competition and increasing differentiation. The report suggests that structural opportunities should be seized, particularly for emerging brands and products [10].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights Honghe Precision (300539) as a rising star in the drone industry, with a strategic business layout focusing on three key areas: smart home appliances, new energy vehicles, and drones/robots [4][5] - The company is recognized as a quality precision manufacturing enterprise, with stable growth in smart home appliances and high growth potential in new energy vehicles and drones [4] Group 2: Business Expansion - The drone business is expected to benefit from a global and full industry chain layout, allowing the company to quickly enter the low-altitude economy and mitigate geopolitical risks [4] - Key developments include a 30% stake in Ningbo Lion King to expand into unmanned aerial vehicles, increasing to a 53% controlling stake, and a 40% stake in a joint venture in Singapore for industrial-grade drones [4] - The company plans to invest 5 million yuan to increase its stake in Heqi Intelligent, which focuses on drone and core module product development and sales [4] Group 3: Robotics Business - The robotics segment shows high product and customer reusability, with potential extensions into the robotics field based on existing manufacturing capabilities [5] - The company has established a stable customer base with notable clients such as Xiaomi, Huawei, SAIC, Geely, and BYD, which may facilitate its expansion into robotics [5] Group 4: Financial Projections - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is approximately 64 million yuan, 102 million yuan, and 146 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 68%, 59%, and 43%, respectively, with a CAGR of 57% [5]

Core Insights - The recent market environment has seen a preemptive year-end rally driven by policy expectations and a recovery in market risk appetite, leading to a simultaneous increase in risk preference and volatility [1] - The convertible bond market is expected to benefit significantly from the volatility factor due to heightened market activity and repricing [1][3] Weekly Analysis of Convertible Bonds - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown strong performance with eight consecutive days of gains, positively impacting the convertible bond market, which has also strengthened [2] - The small-cap convertible bond index outperformed the large-cap index, with a weekly increase of 2.17% compared to 0.1% for the large-cap index [2] - Sectors such as materials, information technology, and industrials have performed well, while consumer staples and financials have lagged [2] Market Trends and Volatility Factors - The volatility style is a key dimension for measuring price fluctuations and market sentiment, with multiple supporting logics for its strength during the year-end rally [3] - The transition of investor focus from "debt protection" to "equity elasticity" is driving the revaluation of high-volatility securities [3] - The Gamma effect is becoming more pronounced as the prices of underlying stocks rise, enhancing the sensitivity of convertible bonds to volatility [3][18] Future Outlook for Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is entering a new environment characterized by high prices and potential overvaluation, suggesting a strategic shift towards increased exposure to volatility [4] - As of December 26, 2025, the cumulative return of the volatility style reached 104.22%, with an annualized return of 16.18% and a Sharpe ratio of 1.51, indicating strong performance relative to other styles [4][20] - Investment strategies should shift from a defensive to an offensive mindset, focusing on high historical volatility securities and increasing the weight of volatility factors in portfolios [4][20] Convertible Bond Market Tracking - The performance of various convertible bond indices has shown significant variation, with the high-price index increasing by 3.8% over the past week, while the low-price index only increased by 0.53% [22] - The market is currently characterized by structural opportunities, with notable differentiation among individual securities [19][22]

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of December 27 is 4.9%, slightly up from the revised 4.8% of the previous week, indicating marginal economic growth improvement[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index remains stable at 8.1%, while the service sector index has slightly decreased to 2.9%[7] - The construction sector shows a slight improvement in physical workload, with rebar apparent demand at 202.8 million tons, down from 208.6 million tons the previous week[7] Demand and Consumption - External demand remains the strongest variable, while consumer demand continues to show low-level fluctuations, with a consumer high-frequency index of 2.3%[18] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities decreased to 254.7 million square meters, a 1% week-on-week decline and a 41% year-on-year decline[46] - The container throughput for exports decreased to 620,100 TEUs, down from 658,900 TEUs the previous week, although the year-to-date growth is 5.45%[55] Price Trends - Consumer prices are generally stable, with agricultural product wholesale prices showing a slight decrease of 0.17% week-on-week[64] - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.51 yuan per kilogram, down 0.4% week-on-week, while the average price of six monitored fruits increased by 1.6%[71]

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：普钢布局期，盈利率修复或带动板块 上行 行业评级：看好 2025 年 12 月 28 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年12月28日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 964 | 1 . | 9% | 18 . | 3% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 657 | 1 . | 9% | 18 . | 4% | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 678 | 3 . | 2% | 27 . | 4% | | 板块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 ...

- The report discusses the performance of BARRA style factors, highlighting that fundamental factors showed increased differentiation, with growth being preferred over value. Profitability-related factors entered a retracement phase, while trading-related factors like high turnover and short-term momentum provided significant excess returns. Additionally, mid-cap style factors outperformed, with both size and non-linear size factors showing positive excess returns[24][25] - The report identifies that high turnover stocks achieved an excess return of 0.9%, short-term momentum stocks provided 0.7%, and non-linear size factors contributed 0.7% in excess returns. Meanwhile, profitability-related factors like earnings quality and investment quality showed negative returns of -0.1% and -0.3%, respectively[25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [9] Core Views - The company is moving towards becoming a global leader in the engineering machinery sector, with the largest stock incentive plan in A-share history being granted for the first time. The controlling shareholder has increased its stake, and the benefits of mixed ownership reform are becoming evident. The quality of assets is improving, and future growth is expected to come from overseas and mining machinery businesses [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Overview - XCMG Machinery is recognized as a leading player in China's engineering machinery sector, ranking fourth globally with a market share of 5.4% as of 2025, and maintaining its position as the largest in China. The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 10.4% in 2024, with a continuous improvement in profitability, as evidenced by an increase in net profit margin from 4.6% in 2022 to 7.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. Market Expectations - The market is concerned about insufficient demand from the downstream real estate sector and the adequacy of infrastructure funding, which has led to sustained pressure on operating rates and new machine sales [2]. Growth Drivers - The engineering machinery cycle is on an upward trend, driven by domestic demand from agriculture, municipal projects, and mining machinery breakthroughs. The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Fortescue River Group to provide 150-200 electric mining trucks, marking a significant step in green mining equipment exports. The company has also deepened cooperation with major overseas mining clients [4][5]. Stock Incentive Plan - The company has launched the largest stock incentive plan in A-share history, with the first grant date set for December 25, 2025. A total of 4.2 million shares, representing 3.6% of the current share capital, will be granted to 4,545 employees, accounting for 16% of the total workforce [4][17]. Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, XCMG Group, plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between RMB 80 million and RMB 160 million within six months starting December 26, 2025. The first purchase involved 1.7795 million shares at an average price of RMB 11.22 per share [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at RMB 104 billion, RMB 121.6 billion, and RMB 142.6 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 17%, and 17%. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 6.8 billion, RMB 8.8 billion, and RMB 11 billion, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 30%, and 25% [14][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - IRS reflects the market's expectation of the future capital cost center, but past experience has proven that the expectation reflected by IRS is not always correct [1][2][10] - Recently, the appreciation of the RMB is the main reason for the increasing expectation of capital easing and the continuous decline of IRS. The leveraged carry trade strategy is still effective, but in the medium - term, it is still maintained that "this round of RMB appreciation is beneficial to the inter - bank liquidity, but the magnitude should not be overestimated" [1][3][13] Summary by Directory 1 IRS's Expectation of the Capital Market: Neither Completely Believe Nor Completely Disbelieve - IRS reflects the market's expectation of the future capital cost center. Taking FR007IRS1 - year as an example, it uses a fixed cost to avoid the uncertainty of FR007 fluctuations in the next year, and this fixed cost is the expected value of the average FR007 in the next year [2][10] - Past experience shows that the capital expectation reflected by IRS is not always correct. For example, after the Politburo meeting in December 2024 and the Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024, the market's expectation of the central bank's monetary policy easing in 2025 rapidly increased, and FR007S1Y deviated significantly downward from FR007. But after July 2025, FR007S1Y began to be slightly higher than FR007 for a long time [2][11] 2 Narrow - Sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (12/22 - 12/26), the central bank's pledged reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 348 billion yuan. As of December 26, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 622.7 billion yuan, indicating a relatively loose capital situation [14] - Medium - term liquidity: In December, the due amount of outright reverse repurchases was 1.4 trillion yuan, and the MLF due was 300 billion yuan. The central bank continued to make net investments in MLF and outright reverse repurchases, with a total net investment of 30 billion yuan [15] - Long - term liquidity: Since the net investment amount of medium - term liquidity tools in December was at a relatively low level since August 2025, there are higher expectations for the amount of treasury bond trading in December [16] 2.2 Institutions' Financing and Lending Situations - Fund supply: On December 26, the net lending of large - scale banks was about 3.9 trillion yuan (flow concept), a decrease of about 258 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 4.9 trillion yuan, an increase of about 136.2 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending balance of money market funds was 800 billion yuan, a decrease of about 74 billion yuan compared with December 19. The net lending of joint - stock banks was 416.7 billion yuan, a decrease of about 180.1 billion yuan compared with December 19 [19] - Fund demand: On December 26, the balance of repurchase - to - be - bought bonds in the inter - bank market was about 13 trillion yuan, an increase of 166.2 billion yuan compared with December 19. The leverage ratios of the whole market and non - legal person products increased [26] 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation - Capital volume and price: In the past week, the inter - bank pledged repo market had a large volume and stable prices. The median daily trading volume of the inter - bank pledged repo was about 8.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 56.7 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 19. The median of R001 was 1.36%, unchanged from last week. Due to the impact of new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, the financing friction in the exchange increased [29] - Capital sentiment index: The overall capital situation was loose, and the financing difficulty was low. The sentiment index was around 50 most of the time [32] 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps - The median of the 1 - year FR007IRS this week was 1.49%, a decrease of 4.2bp compared with last week, and the interest rate was in the bottom 3% since 2020 [39] 3 Government Bonds 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 366.7 billion yuan, with the net payment of treasury bonds being 374.1 billion yuan and the net repayment of local government bonds being 7.4 billion yuan. In the next week, only 26 billion yuan of local government bonds will be issued on December 29 [40] 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of December 26, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 98.6%, an increase of 2.7% in the past week, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 was about 90.2 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds has been completed [42] 4 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit 4.1 Absolute Yield - On December 26, SHIBOR overnight, 7 - day, 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year quotes were 1.26%, 1.45%, 1.58%, 1.6%, 1.63%, 1.64%, and 1.65% respectively. The maturity yields of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks in the ChinaBond were 1.62%, 1.6%, 1.62%, 1.64%, and 1.64% respectively. Except for the 6 - month term, which increased by 1bp compared with December 19, the quotes of other terms remained unchanged [46] 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situations - In the past week (December 22 - 26), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 560.29 billion yuan, an increase of 435.5 billion yuan compared with December 15 - 19. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year were 17%, 17%, 23%, 10%, and 33% respectively [49] 4.3 Relative Valuation - On December 26, the spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit maturity yield and R007 was 11bp, in the 28% quantile since 2020; the spread between the 10 - year treasury bond maturity yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 20bp, in the 51% quantile since 2020 [52]