证券研究报告 | A 股策略周报 | 中国策略 A 股策略周报 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 27 日 "未分胜负"变"利于多方"，防挖坑、不追高、逢低配 ——A 股市场运行周报第 73 期 核心观点 （1）蓝箭航天 IPO 辅导状态已变更为"辅导工作完成"、SpaceX 确认筹备 2026 年潜在 IPO 计划；（2）央行发布一次性个人信用修复政策，助力个人重塑信用； （3）央行货币政策委员会召开第四季度例会，会议提出"维护资本市场稳定"。 ❑ 下周行情展望 从盘面上看，市场从上周的"未分胜负"转向本周"利于多方"，主要归功于三项 驱动因素：一是中证 A500ETF 表现强劲，总份额在近一周、两周分别增加 398.9 亿份、672.3 亿份；二是商业航天相关持续火爆，驱动成长指数明显上涨；三是光 模块继续走强，对双创指数形成托举。虽然上述因素驱动市场格局转向多头，并 为明年上半年的向上奠定基础，但其持续性有待检验。展望后市，我们认为 A 股 中线看多、"系统性慢牛"继续走高的结论具有较高的置信度，而短期走势如何演 绎则需要我们"边走边看"，是否会像去年底、今年初一般在中线行情启动前挖出 "黄金坑"仍不得 ...

Core Insights - The equity market's year-end rally may have started, which, combined with the hot commodity market led by precious metals, could further impact the bond market's asset scarcity logic [1] - In a market environment with significant interest rate fluctuations, a buy-and-hold coupon strategy may offer a higher cost-performance ratio due to its relatively simple operational approach and neutral performance [1] Group 1: Equity Market Year-End Rally - From December 17 to 26, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an eight-day consecutive rise, indicating that the year-end rally may have begun [2] - Factors that contributed to the previous year-end rally in 2020, such as a liquidity-rich macro environment, increased preference for stable earnings, and a positive cycle of fund issuance and stock purchases, are also present in the current market [2][17] - Current favorable conditions for the equity market include a reinforced low-interest-rate environment, a clear leadership in technology stocks, and increased institutional pressure for passive holdings [20] Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The bond market has not performed outstandingly compared to other asset classes, with both absolute returns and risk-adjusted performance lacking [3][25] - The influx of funds into the bond market due to asset scarcity may face outflow pressure, negatively impacting bond market performance [3][25] Group 3: Buy-and-Hold Coupon Strategy - As of December 26, the average actual yield of pure bond funds was 1.44%, with 21.17% of funds exceeding a 2% yield [4][28] - A buy-and-hold strategy focusing on high-coupon credit bonds may provide better cost-performance, especially in a volatile interest rate environment [4][28] - For a 3-year AAA-rated bond, the actual yield could reach 1.65% when considering the benefits of duration shortening, ranking 43.50% among all bond funds [4][28]

工业利润增速放缓，新质生产力增速加快 ——2025 年 1-11 月工业企业盈利数据的背后 核心观点 2025 年 1-11 月工业企业利润增速有所放缓，工业品价格修复不足、内需放缓是主因。 结构上，新质生产力成为利润驱动主力，高技术制造业、装备制造业利润增速带动明 显，其中"人工智能+" 带动的电子工业专用设备、航空航天相关设备制造和智能消 费设备制造表现亮眼，此外，有色行业受市场需求带动保持两位数增长。另一方面， 我们再次提示，"反内卷"节奏和力度相较 2016 年供给侧改革有较大差异，在全国统 一大市场框架下，更侧重于供给的高质量优化而非简单的产能出清，侧重于使用市场 化、法制化手段引导"内卷"领域将价格回归成本线以上竞争，遏制降低质量以次充好 的恶性低价竞争，有助于促使工业利润增速回稳。 ❑ 工业利润增速放缓，内需、价格支撑偏弱 2025 年 1-11 月份，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长 0.1%（前值 1.9%），其中 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%。我们认为，10 月以来内需有所放缓、 工业品价格仍然偏低对工业利润增速支撑不足，从两年平均增速来看，11 月工业 利润累计同比增速两 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The overall bus export in November was 8,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%, while the cumulative export for the first eleven months was 93,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 26%. The export of new energy buses in November was 1,100 units, down 6% year-on-year, but the cumulative export for the first eleven months reached 15,000 units, up 58% year-on-year, indicating a high level of bus export activity and rapid growth in new energy segments [1][11] - The market for fuel buses is expected to remain strong, particularly in regions like the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa, with a projected year-on-year growth of 21% in fuel bus exports before October 2025. The new energy bus market is also expanding, especially in Europe, where the penetration rate is expected to rise significantly [4][30] - The report highlights that the new energy bus export market is expected to grow, with projections indicating that by 2025, the market share of Chinese new energy bus exports could reach over 26%, and by 2027, it could rise to 33%, corresponding to an export scale of 6,000 units [5][40] Industry Data Update - The export of large and medium buses in October was 4,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 14%. The export of light buses in October was 5,000 units, up 25% year-on-year, with a cumulative export of 43,000 units for the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 43% [1][20] - The domestic sales of large and medium buses in November reached 8,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, with cumulative sales of 54,000 units for the first eleven months [1][22] Company Data Update - Yutong Bus sold 35,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The company expects to achieve sales of 40,000 units in 2024, a growth of 27% [2][27] - King Long Automobile reported sales of 28,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 1%, with an expected sales target of 29,000 units in 2024, reflecting a growth of 28% [2][29] - Zhongtong Bus sold 11,000 large and medium buses in the first eleven months, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with an expected sales target of 10,000 units in 2024, reflecting a growth of 58% [3][29] Industry Space - The report identifies significant market opportunities for fuel buses in underdeveloped countries, while the new energy bus market is expected to see substantial growth in Europe, Latin America, and Asia, with projections indicating a total demand of 17,000 units by 2024 and 37,000 units by 2027 [4][40] - In Europe, the market for large and medium buses is projected to reach 47,000 units in 2024, with a new energy penetration rate of 16%, expected to rise to 25% by 2027, corresponding to sales of 19,000 new energy buses [4][34] - The report anticipates that by 2027, the export volume of Chinese new energy buses could reach 17,000 units, with a compound annual growth rate of 39% from 2024 [40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2025, with revenue of 4.795 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.17%. Profit before tax reached 1.114 billion yuan, up 56.75%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.881 billion yuan, reflecting a 54.06% increase. Cumulatively, for Q1-Q3 2025, these metrics showed year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 73.16%, and 67.51% respectively. The increase in sales volume and prices were identified as the main drivers of profit growth. Additionally, net cash flow from operating activities surged by 99.20% year-on-year, indicating improved profitability and cash flow quality [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.795 billion yuan, a 23.17% increase year-on-year. The profit before tax was 1.114 billion yuan, marking a 56.75% increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.881 billion yuan, up 54.06%. For the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative revenue, profit before tax, and net profit showed year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 73.16%, and 67.51% respectively [1] Shareholder Confidence - Major shareholders, including the controlling shareholder China National Building Material and shareholders holding over 5%, announced plans to increase their stakes in the company by investing between 675 million yuan and 1.35 billion yuan over the next 12 months. This move reflects their confidence in the company's long-term value and growth prospects [2] Financial Structure - The company successfully issued its tenth phase of technology innovation bonds in December 2025, raising 400 million yuan at a low interest rate of 1.70%. This issuance not only provides low-cost operational funding but also demonstrates the company's strong reputation and financing capabilities in the capital market [3] Industry Position - The company maintains its position as a global leader in production capacity, achieving "world firsts" in three categories: thermosetting roving, thermoplastic reinforcement, and electronic fabrics. Its scale advantage solidifies its industry standing and ensures a healthy operational foundation. The company is actively enhancing management efficiency through benchmarking against world-class standards and implementing a comprehensive compliance framework across its value chain [4] Investment Outlook - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.9 billion yuan, with a conservative estimate of a 15% growth rate for the full year. The gross profit margin improved to 32.4% compared to 23.7% in 2024. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 3.6 billion yuan, 4 billion yuan, and 4.5 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.89, 1.01, and 1.12 yuan. The combination of shareholder confidence and low-cost financing enhances the company's financial safety margin and shareholder return expectations. Given its solid industry position and cost control capabilities, the company is expected to have a promising long-term growth trajectory [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The overseas AIDC construction remains robust, while domestic demand is expected to rebound in 2026. In the second half of 2025, there is a clear divergence in AIDC construction between domestic and international markets. North America continues to experience high levels of capital expenditure, with the four major cloud providers' capital spending reaching $257.4 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a 65% year-on-year increase. In contrast, domestic cloud providers are experiencing a temporary slowdown in capital expenditure growth due to restrictions on high-end computing card imports, which has delayed some AIDC project timelines. However, this impact is seen as a deferral of demand rather than a disappearance of demand. As overseas supply of computing cards improves and domestic alternatives continue to develop, a "pent-up rebound" in domestic AIDC construction is anticipated in 2026, indicating potential for demand release [1]. Summary by Sections AIDC Equipment - The report highlights the ongoing high demand for AIDC equipment in North America, driven by rapid growth in AI computing needs and delayed power grid construction, leading to increased orders for gas turbines for self-generation or distributed power supply [2]. Gas Turbines - The global gas turbine market is characterized by a significant supply-demand imbalance, with an expected increase of over 85 GW in global gas turbine orders in 2025, while existing effective capacity is around 50 GW. The market is dominated by GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which together hold an 88% market share. The backlog of orders extends to 2028, creating opportunities for Chinese companies to enter the overseas market [2][3]. Diesel Generators - Diesel generators are essential backup power sources in AIDC construction, with a long-term market dominated by Cummins, MTU, and Caterpillar, which together hold about 85% of the market share in China. Current capacity bottlenecks faced by overseas manufacturers present a window of opportunity for domestic manufacturers like Weichai to replace foreign brands and expand internationally [4]. Cooling Equipment - The report notes that the rapid increase in AI chip power consumption is pushing the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, as traditional air cooling approaches reach their physical limits. This trend is expected to drive demand for related cooling equipment [5]. Emerging Technologies - Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) are being explored as a solution to power shortages in North America, offering high modularity, short delivery cycles, and high efficiency. The report suggests that SOFC costs are approaching those of gas turbines, indicating a potential growth area [7]. Data Center Busbars - The traditional "rack and cable" approach in high-power density scenarios is being replaced by intelligent busbar solutions, which offer higher reliability and easier maintenance, marking a significant upgrade direction for data center power distribution systems [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several key areas: gas turbines, diesel generators, cooling equipment, and emerging technologies like SOFC and data center busbars, as these sectors are expected to benefit from structural opportunities driven by both domestic and international demand [8]. Key companies to watch include Yingliu, Ice Wheel Environment, Weichai Power, Haomai Technology, and Jerry [8].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 12 月 26 日 市场总览 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.47%，沪深 300 上涨 0.18%，科创 50 下跌 0.23%，中证 1000 上涨 0.97%，创业板指上 0.30%，恒生指数上涨 0.17%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是国防军工（+2.91%)、轻工制造（+1.59%)、机械设备（+1.51%)、汽车（+1.46%)、 非银金融（+1.08%)，表现最差的行业分别是综合（-1.12%)、有色金属（-0.77%)、商贸零售（-0.47%)、煤炭（-0.24%)、 通信（-0.18%)。 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 19245 亿元，南下资金净流出 11.75 亿港元。 【浙商大制造中观策略 邱世梁/王华君/周向昉】机械设备 年度行业策略报告：可控核聚变：招标提速，设备先行 ——20251224 【浙商大消费中观策略 钟烨晨】酒店餐饮 年度行业策略报告：2026 年餐饮行业风险排雷手册—— ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a new tiered performance compensation adjustment mechanism for public fund managers, linking their pay directly to fund performance over the past three years [8][10][11] - A profile of stock funds with higher outperformance rates is depicted, emphasizing the importance of appropriate performance benchmarks, lower stock concentration, larger fund sizes, and higher manager tenure stability [1][12] - The backtesting results show that the proportion of funds underperforming the benchmark is directly related to market conditions, with significant variations observed from 2022 to 2025 [12][24] Group 2 - Active funds have a higher underperformance rate compared to quantitative funds, indicating that quantitative strategies may provide better risk management through diversified holdings [18][19] - Non-market funds exhibit higher underperformance rates than market funds, particularly in fluctuating market conditions, suggesting that concentrated strategies may lead to missed opportunities [24][25] - Funds with more diversified holdings (over 200 stocks) show lower underperformance rates, reinforcing the idea that diversification can mitigate risks associated with individual stock volatility [35][36] Group 3 - Fund size is inversely correlated with underperformance rates, with larger funds generally exhibiting lower rates of underperformance compared to smaller funds [38][39] - Changing performance benchmarks can significantly reduce the rate of significant underperformance, highlighting the importance of selecting optimal benchmarks in the context of new regulations [24][38] - The report notes that funds with a high concentration in a single industry but benchmarked against broad indices tend to underperform, emphasizing the need for appropriate benchmark selection [32][34]

Group 1 - The core view of the report emphasizes that the restaurant industry is stabilizing, with a differentiation in the tea beverage sector [7][10] - The investment strategy for 2026 is based on the belief that the restaurant sector will see a recovery, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and a favorable comparison to 2019 levels [10] - Key assumptions include a moderate recovery in CPI and stable single-store operations, while the main concern is that CPI recovery may fall short of expectations [10][11] Group 2 - The macro risk identified is that CPI recovery may not meet expectations, which could exert downward pressure on customer spending in the restaurant sector [11][12] - The operational risk involves single-store performance not meeting expectations, which could impact brand confidence and overall annual performance [13][14] - The report highlights specific stocks such as Haidilao and Yum China, noting that they could face risks related to CPI recovery [17][25] Group 3 - The report identifies Haidilao as a leading Chinese restaurant chain, which may face pressure on customer spending if CPI does not recover as anticipated [17][18] - Yum China, which includes KFC and Pizza Hut, is also highlighted for similar risks related to CPI recovery affecting customer spending [25][26] - Other notable companies like Mixue and Gu Ming are mentioned, with risks tied to single-store performance impacting their expansion and overall performance [33][40]

Market Overview - On December 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.29%, the STAR 50 climbed by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.54%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.77%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17% [4] - The best-performing sectors on December 24 were defense and military industry (+2.88%), electronics (+2.12%), building materials (+1.72%), light industry manufacturing (+1.69%), and machinery equipment (+1.49%). The worst-performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.85%), coal (-0.7%), food and beverage (-0.36%), banking (-0.3%), and media (+0.01%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on December 24 was 1,897.242 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.175 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank sector is expected to see a rebound in 2026, offering both high probability and favorable odds [5] - Market expectations for the non-bank sector are low due to the high base in 2025 [5] - Factors driving this outlook include a long-term "slow bull" market in equities and optimization of the liability side [5] Industry Rotation Strategy - The top five industry indices from the 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Table yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% as of December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with positive excess returns in 11 out of 12 months [6][7] - In a bull market, focusing on industry fundamentals is deemed more important than trading comparisons, with a strategy of identifying and holding onto sectors with strong economic logic being favored over rotation trading [6][7] - Key sectors to watch in 2026 include cyclical and technology sectors, closely aligned with top-level policy themes such as technological self-reliance, domestic demand, and anti-involution [6][7] Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive lightweight trend presents significant opportunities for substituting steel with plastics, as modified plastics are lighter and stronger, making them ideal materials for automotive lightweighting [8] - The increase in the usage of modified plastics serves as a catalyst for this trend [8] - Risks include rising raw material costs and the potential for new material substitution [8]