(%) 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 022-1 2021 美国:核心CPE用此 图表 2. CPI 与核心 CPI 环比 (%) 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 (05) (1.0) 024-02 021-1 022-0: 0214 0224 021- 吴国:CPI:李调:环比 吴国:桂心CP还李调:环比 资料来源: Wind, 中银证券 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

强于大市 电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 7 日 电力设备与新能源行业 7月 第 1 周周报 多家新势力 6 月交付量创新高 光伏方面,硅料库存开始提升,价格预计短期磨底,产能出清价格信号已明 确,具体出清时间点仍未明确。主产业链产能出清仍在进行时,建议优先配 置行业格局较优、成本优势较为明显的行业细分环节。风电方面,海风项目 建设有序推进,国外海风有望逐步放量,带动出海需求,建议优先配置受益 于海风、海外逻辑的塔筒桩基与海缆环节,以及存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产 化与新技术环节。新能源车方面,多家新势力 6 月交付量创历史新高,随着 新能源汽车消费进入旺季,产品力进一步加强,全年销量有望保持高景气。 电池环节盈利确定性较高,中游材料多数环节价格企稳,随着落后产能逐步 出清,各环节盈利有望回归合理。新技术方面固态电池产业化加速,有望在 25 年迎来放量,在相关领域有布局的材料和设备企业有望受益。建议优先布 局格局较优的电芯环节,海外客户放量以及一体化布局较优的部分中游材料 环节。电力设备领域,国内持续推动电力体制改革,《国家能源局关于做好 新能源消纳工作 保障新能源高质量发展的通知 ...

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2024 年 7 月 7 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20240705 下周(20240704-20240711):银行(16.7%)、电力及公用事业(8.3%)、 石油石化(8.3%)、煤炭(8.3%)、有色金属(8.3%)、汽车(8.3%)、 家 电( 8.3% ) 、农林牧 渔( 8.3% ) 、房地 产( 8.3% )、 交通运输 (8.3%)、电子(8.3%) 业绩回顾:中信一级行业平均周收益率 -0.7%,近 1 月平均收益率4.3%。本周(20240627-20240704,下文同)收益率表现最好的三个行 业是石油石化(3.2%)、电力及公用事业(2.9%)、银行(2.7%)。收 益率表现最差的三个行业是计算机(-4.4%)、医药(-3.6%)、电力设 备及新能源(-3.0%)。 模型表现:截至 2024/7/04,行业轮动策略获得累计收益-6.34%,中信一 级行业等权基准收益-9.96%,对应累计超额收益 3.62%。Wind 普通股票 型基金指数基准收益-7.19%,对应累计超额收益 0.85%。其中:行业盈 利景气度追踪策略较中信行业等权超 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the real estate industry, suggesting a focus on companies with solid fundamentals and liquidity [1]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of improvement, with new home transaction areas increasing by 61.6% month-on-month, although year-on-year declines remain significant at 20.6% [1][11]. - The report highlights the impact of recent policy changes in major cities, including reduced down payment ratios and lower mortgage interest rates, which are expected to stimulate demand [1][11]. - The overall sentiment in the market is still cautious, with a need for sustained policy support to restore confidence and expectations among consumers [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1) New Home Market Tracking - In the week of June 22 to June 28, 2024, new home transaction volumes in 40 cities reached 42,000 units, a 61.5% increase from the previous week, but a 20.3% decrease year-on-year [12][38]. - The new home inventory in 12 cities was recorded at 1.561 million units, with a slight decrease of 0.4% month-on-month and a 2.5% decrease year-on-year [24][34]. 2) Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The second-hand home market saw transactions of 22,000 units in 18 cities, reflecting a 0.8% increase month-on-month and a 15.4% increase year-on-year [38][41]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes was 195.9 million square meters, up 2.4% month-on-month but down 6.6% year-on-year [38][41]. 3) Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions across 100 cities was 10.65 million square meters, a 2.2% increase month-on-month but a significant 68.8% decrease year-on-year [44][45]. - The total land transaction value was 21.09 billion yuan, down 27.0% month-on-month and 70.8% year-on-year [44][45]. 4) Policy Review - Recent policies aimed at easing credit conditions have been implemented in major cities, with expectations for further measures to support the market [1][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the effective implementation of these policies to ensure a stable recovery in the real estate sector [1][11]. 5) Company Performance - The report suggests focusing on companies with no liquidity risks and solid sales fundamentals, such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, and Poly Developments [1][11]. - Companies expected to show significant improvement in performance include Vanke and Longfor Group, which are positioned to benefit from the market recovery [1][11].

Timing Analysis - The "National Team" funding intensity changes are negatively correlated with the CSI 800 index movements, indicating that the "National Team" tends to enter the market at low points and exit at high points[2] - Significant inflows from the "National Team" were observed in 2015-2016, 2018-2019, and 2023-2024, with inflows exceeding two standard deviations, corroborated by announcements[2] Factor Construction - Three factors were constructed to assess "National Team" stock selection: Factor 1 measures changes in holding market value, Factor 2 assesses potential price space, and Factor 3 evaluates current holding market value[154] - Factor 1 showed superior excess returns when using market value changes compared to share ratio changes, suggesting a preference for the former in strategy implementation[15] Performance Metrics - The strategy achieved an annualized excess return of 9.9% relative to the CSI 300 index, 10.8% relative to the CSI 500 index, and 10.4% relative to the CSI 800 index[62][63] - The model demonstrated stable excess returns across most years, with notable performance in 2015 (38.6% excess return for CSI 800) and 2023 (16.6% for CSI 800)[43] Sensitivity Testing - Sensitivity tests indicated that not normalizing for industry and market capitalization resulted in higher annualized excess returns, particularly for the CSI 300 (9.9% vs. 7.2% when normalized)[46] - The analysis confirmed that the "National Team" has a preference for specific industries and large-cap stocks, which should be retained in the factor construction[139]

Macro Environment - The industrial capacity utilization rate in Q1 2024 was recorded at 73.6%, a decline of 2.3 percentage points from the end of 2023[7] - In 2023, 24 industries saw an average capacity utilization increase of 5.53%, while 12 industries experienced a decline averaging 2.52%[7] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address capacity issues in certain industries, particularly in the photovoltaic sector[7] Trade and Investment Trends - Since 2018, the average tariff on Chinese imports to the U.S. rose from 3.1% to 19.3%, peaking at 21.0%[39] - In 2022, China's outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) flow was $163.12 billion, ranking second globally, with a stock of $2.75 trillion[31] - The manufacturing sector's OFDI is concentrated in North America, Southeast Asia, and South America, with significant investments in equipment manufacturing[31] Industry Shifts - The top three sectors for greenfield investment in 2023 were electronic components, automotive OEM, and renewable energy, with investments of $17.615 billion, $6.078 billion, and $4.287 billion respectively[46] - The transition from labor-intensive to technology-intensive industries is evident in the changing landscape of greenfield investments[46] - The global supply chain is undergoing a fifth round of industrial transfer, with manufacturing increasingly moving to Southeast Asia and India due to rising labor costs in China[11] Strategic Considerations - Companies are considering capacity relocation to avoid high tariffs and benefit from local export tax incentives in host countries[39] - The trend of "nearshoring" and "friendshoring" is gaining traction, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the need for resilient supply chains[50] - The historical context of industrial transfer indicates a shift in China's role from a recipient to a provider of industrial capacity, particularly in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative[53]

金融工程 | 证券研究报告 — 周报 2024 年 6 月 30 日 中银量化多策略行业轮动 周报 – 20240628 下周(20240627-20240704):消费者服务(15.4%)、机械(7.7%)、电力 及公用事业(7.7%)、电力设备及新能源(7.7%)、国防军工(7.7%)、 家电(7.7%)、商贸零售(7.7%)、农林牧渔(7.7%)、医药(7.7%)、 银行(7.7%)、通信(7.7%)、计算机(7.7%) 业绩回顾:中信一级行业平均周收益率 -2.3%,近 1 月平均收益率6.7%。本周(20240620-20240627,下文同)收益率表现最好的三个行 业是银行(1.7%)、建材(-0.1%)、传媒(-0.4%)。收益率表现最差 的三个行业是煤炭(-4.0%)、电子(-3.8%)、有色金属(-3.7%)。 模型表现:截至 2024/6/27,行业轮动策略获得累计收益-5.56%,中信一 级行业等权基准收益-9.35%,对应累计超额收益 3.80%。Wind 普通股票 型基金指数基准收益-6.04%,对应累计超额收益 0.48%。其中:行业盈 利景气度追踪策略较中信行业等权超额收益为 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][4] - The market price is HKD 19.08, with a sector rating of "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The self-developed idle game "Let's Go Muffin" has performed well, maintaining a top ten position on the iOS sales chart since its launch in Hong Kong, Macau, and mainland China, and is expected to significantly contribute to the company's 2024 earnings [3][4] - The stable issuance of domestic game licenses and the anticipated release of major titles during the summer are expected to drive revenue growth for the TapTap platform [4] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upward for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with projected net profits of RMB 538 million, RMB 690 million, and RMB 827 million respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15.18, 11.82, and 9.87 [4][5] Summary by Sections Stock Performance - The company's stock has shown a 12-month absolute performance of -10.0% and a relative performance of -4.0% compared to the Hang Seng Index [1] Financial Metrics - The total market capitalization is approximately HKD 9,170.59 million, with 480.64 million shares outstanding [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 75.96 million [2] Game Performance - "Let's Go Muffin" has been a standout product, achieving a peak ranking of fourth on the iOS sales chart and maintaining strong sales since its launch [4] - The company has a solid pipeline with four games in reserve, two of which have already received licenses [4] Market Trends - The report highlights a trend of increasing bargaining power for quality content providers in the gaming industry, which is expected to benefit the company and its platform, TapTap [4] - The anticipated influx of major mobile games during the summer is expected to enhance user engagement and advertising revenue on TapTap [4]

通信 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 6 月 25 日 强于大市 通信行业周报(0624-0630) 通信行业相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源:万得,中银证券 注:收盘价截止到 2024 年 6 月 21 日 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 通信 证券分析师:庄宇 yu.zhuang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300520060004 证券分析师:吕然 (8610)66229185 ran.lv@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号:S1300521050001 联系人:袁妲 da.yuan@bocichina.com 一般证券业务证书编号:S1300122070006 鸿蒙开启万物互联 华为开发者大会带来全新的 HarmonyOS NEXT、盘古大模型 5.0、昇腾 AI 云服务、GaussDB 数据库等最新科技创新成果,分享鸿蒙生态开放的新能力, 持续为消费者和开发者带来创新体验。 第 25 周主题: 6 月 21-23 日,华为开发者大会(HDC 2024)盛大开幕。大会宣布,Top5000 应用全部启动鸿蒙原生开发。 ...