Core Insights - The report highlights the current positioning of the Bank of China’s multi-strategy industry allocation system, with a comprehensive allocation of 8.6% across various sectors, including Electronics (7.5%), Non-ferrous Metals (7.4%), and Banking (7.3) [1] - The report tracks the performance of various strategies, noting that the S2 sentiment tracking strategy achieved a weekly excess return of 3.3%, while the S1 industry profitability tracking strategy underperformed with an excess return of -0.1% [2][3] - The report identifies the top-performing sectors for the week as Machinery (5.4%), Non-ferrous Metals (4.4%), and National Defense Industry (4.2%), while the worst performers were Oil & Petrochemicals (-0.9%), Pharmaceuticals (-0.9%), and Comprehensive Finance (-0.6%) [3][10] Industry Performance Review - The average weekly return for the 30 CITIC first-level industries was 1.9%, with a one-month average return of 4.2% [10] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of weekly and monthly performance for each industry, indicating significant variations in returns across sectors [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The report employs a valuation warning system based on the PB ratio over the past six years, identifying industries with a PB ratio above the 95th percentile as overvalued [12][13] - Currently, the industries triggering high valuation warnings include Retail Trade, National Defense Industry, and Media, all exceeding the 95% threshold [13][14] Strategy Performance - The report outlines the performance of various strategies, with the S4 long-term reversal strategy showing a significant excess return of 6.4% year-to-date [3][15] - The S3 macro style rotation strategy has a current excess return of 4.3%, indicating strong performance in the context of macroeconomic indicators [3][24] Sector Rankings - The report ranks the current high-prospect sectors based on profitability expectations, with Non-ferrous Metals, Communication, and Agriculture leading the rankings [16][19] - The sentiment tracking strategy (S2) identifies Machinery, Computer, and Textile as the top sectors based on implied sentiment indicators [19][20] Macro Indicators - The report highlights the top six industries favored by current macroeconomic indicators, which include Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, National Defense Industry, and Non-bank Financials [24][25]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [12] Core Viewpoints - The AI computing power supply chain is accelerating, driven by advanced processes and policies supporting domestic production. The report anticipates a rapid increase in domestic AI applications and a robust ecosystem [1] - The report highlights that with the improvement in the yield of advanced processes, the supporting supply chain is expected to see accelerated growth, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic AI computing power as a foundational support for AI technology, with significant capital expenditure expected in the domestic AI sector [5] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Recommended companies to focus on include: - Computing Chips: Cambrian, Haiguang Information - Advanced Manufacturing: SMIC, Huahong Group, Yongxi Electronics - HBM: Huahai Chengke, Lianrui New Materials - PCB/CCL: Shenzhen Circuit, Founder Technology, Nanya Technology, Shengyi Technology - High-speed Backplane Modules: Huafeng Technology - Power Capacitors: Taijia Co., Oulu Tong, Jianghai Co. - Liquid Cooling: Feirongda, Shenling Environment, Shuguang Digital Innovation, Hongrid [3] Supporting Rating Points - The report notes that the yield of Huawei's Ascend 910C has reportedly reached 40%, indicating significant improvements in manufacturing processes and management, which is expected to lead to increased shipments of the 910C series products [5] - The report mentions the Chinese government's commitment to implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, which aims to promote the large-scale commercialization of AI applications across various sectors, leveraging China's complete industrial system and large market scale [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for Q Technology with a target price of HK$16.40, raised from HK$11.60 [5][6][7] Core Insights - Q Technology's strong performance in 1H25 is attributed to the upgrade trend in Android smartphones, particularly in Optical Image Stabilization (OIS) and periscope lenses, alongside market share gains in fingerprint modules [5][6] - The non-smartphone segment, including IoT and automotive modules, has emerged as a significant growth driver, contributing 23.9% to total revenue in 1H25 [6][7] - The report anticipates continued design wins with leading OEMs in various sectors due to Q Technology's long-term investments in components and modules [6][7] Summary by Sections Q Technology Performance - In 1H25, Q Technology achieved a net profit of RMB308 million, reflecting a 168% year-over-year increase, with a gross profit margin reaching a record high of 7.4% since 2H21 [5][7] Growth Drivers - The report highlights that the non-smartphone business has become a key growth engine, with expectations for further design wins in automotive, drones, XR, LiDAR, and robotics [6][7] Target Price Adjustment - The target price adjustment to HK$16.40 is based on a projected 22x earnings per share for 2026, indicating confidence in the company's growth trajectory [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in its cloud computing business and robust performance in communication and network equipment, leading to an optimistic outlook [3][8] - The revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 increased by 35.58% and 38.61% year-on-year, respectively, indicating strong operational performance [8] - The report anticipates significant growth in AI infrastructure investments, which will drive demand for high-end AI servers [8] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 813.99 billion, RMB 1,309.97 billion, and RMB 1,624.18 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 316.19 billion, RMB 574.03 billion, and RMB 658.98 billion for the same years [5][7] - The report indicates a PE ratio of 22.8, 12.6, and 11.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation outlook [5][7] Performance Metrics - The company achieved a gross margin of 6.60% in the first half of 2025, with a slight decrease compared to the previous year [8] - The report highlights a significant increase in server revenue, with AI server revenue growing over 60% year-on-year [8] - The company’s EBITDA is projected to grow from RMB 42.74 billion in 2025 to RMB 86.01 billion in 2027, reflecting strong operational efficiency [7][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company has achieved steady revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 15% in revenue and a recovery in gross margin [3][8] - The company has successfully secured multiple electronic bulk gas projects in Shenzhen and Nantong, enhancing its market position [3][8] - The launch of the Super-N 30K Pro ultra-pure nitrogen machine marks a significant step towards achieving self-sufficiency in core equipment for ultra-pure electronic bulk gases [3][8] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is approximately RMB 2,598 million, reflecting a growth rate of 23.5% [7] - The estimated EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.26, with corresponding P/E ratios of 39.3, 30.0, and 23.4 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][7] - The company’s total market capitalization is around RMB 13.4 billion [2][5] Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue for H1 2025 reached RMB 1.114 billion, with a gross margin of 26.4% [8] - The net profit for H1 2025 was RMB 118 million, showing a year-on-year decrease of 13% [8] - The EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be RMB 727 million, with a growth rate of 37.2% [7][9] Market Position - The company holds approximately 15% market share in the Chinese electronic bulk gas market, which is projected to reach RMB 9.7 billion in 2024 [8] - The company is actively participating in the semiconductor industry development plan, further solidifying its market presence [8]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Crude oil freight rates have significantly rebounded, while freight rates for the US routes continue to decline. The China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) rose to 1057.44 points, an increase of 20.1% from July 31 [2][14] - The launch of the "3+9+N" low-altitude air route network by Huangpu and the successful eVTOL flight from Shenzhen to a sea oil platform mark significant advancements in low-altitude logistics [2][16] - The collective increase in express delivery base prices in Guangdong, effective from August 4, aims to combat price wars in the logistics sector [2][23] Industry Dynamics 1. Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have rebounded significantly, with the Middle East route rates increasing by 24.52% compared to July 31 [13] - The US route freight rates continue to decline, with Shanghai port rates to the US West and East dropping by 9.8% and 10.7% respectively [15] - The introduction of the "3+9+N" low-altitude air route network aims to enhance logistics efficiency in the Guangdong region [16] - Guangdong's express delivery base price has been set at no less than 1.4 RMB per ticket, marking a significant policy shift in the logistics sector [23] 2. High-Frequency Data Tracking - In July 2025, domestic cargo flight operations increased by 7.61% year-on-year, while international cargo flights rose by 23.31% [33] - The express delivery business volume in June 2025 reached 16.87 billion items, a year-on-year increase of 15.78% [55] - The shipping market shows a mixed trend, with the SCFI index reporting a decline of 54.22% year-on-year [40] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, particularly in companies like CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, with recommendations for SF Express and Jitu Express [4] 4. Company Performance - The report highlights the performance of listed transportation companies, indicating a need for ongoing monitoring of their valuation levels [3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the potential growth of 隆华新材 in the polyether industry, with rapid increases in production and sales, and a promising outlook for its new materials business [6][7] - The report emphasizes the impact of CoWoP technology on the PCB industry, which is expected to drive demand for PCB equipment, benefiting 芯碁微装 as it expands into the drilling equipment sector [9][10] Group 1: 隆华新材 (Longhua New Material) - 隆华新材 is recognized as a high-quality player in the polyether industry, with a current production capacity of 970,000 tons per year and an additional 330,000 tons under construction, positioning it among the industry leaders [6][7] - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 22.65% in revenue and 12.93% in net profit from 2019 to 2024. In Q1 2025, it achieved revenue of 1.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.52%, and a net profit of 57.1247 million yuan, up 19.52% [6][7] - The polyether industry is nearing a turning point, with increasing concentration and improved competitive dynamics, which are expected to enhance the profitability of leading companies like 隆华新材 as new capacities are released [7] Group 2: 芯碁微装 (Chipbond Technology) - The CoWoP technology is driving the upgrade of PCB manufacturing to mSAP processes, which raises the requirements for PCB equipment. 芯碁微装 is positioned to benefit from this trend as demand for high-layer PCBs increases due to AI applications [9][10] - The global market for multilayer boards and HDI boards is projected to reach 2.421 billion and 12.518 billion USD in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.2% and 18.8%, respectively, indicating a robust demand for PCB equipment [10] - 芯碁微装 is actively entering the drilling equipment market, with the launch of its MCD75T series, which is expected to enhance its growth potential in this new segment [11]

Inflation Overview - July CPI year-on-year growth slightly exceeded consensus expectations, while PPI year-on-year growth fell below expectations[1] - July CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, remaining flat year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8%[2] - Service prices rose by 0.5% year-on-year, while consumer goods prices fell by 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - Year-on-year growth in July was driven by other goods and services (8.0%), clothing (1.7%), and healthcare (0.5%), while food and tobacco prices fell by 0.8%[2] - Food prices contributed to a 0.29 percentage point decline in CPI year-on-year, with gold and platinum jewelry prices adding 0.22 percentage points to CPI growth[2] - Service prices accounted for approximately 0.26 percentage points of the month-on-month CPI increase, representing over 60% of the total CPI rise[6] PPI Insights - July PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline in production materials contributing significantly[15] - The month-on-month decline in PPI was the first narrowing since March, influenced by seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties[16] - The overall PPI decline was impacted by eight industries, which collectively contributed approximately 0.24 percentage points to the PPI decrease[16] Future Outlook - The second half of the year is expected to see a narrowing of the PPI year-on-year decline due to improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries[20] - Seasonal and policy factors may cause fluctuations in various price segments, particularly in food and durable goods[7] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[30]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 24,859, down 0.9% for the day but up 23.9% year-to-date (YTD) [1] - The HSCEI closed at 8,895, down 1.0% for the day and up 22.0% YTD [1] - The MSCI China index decreased by 0.8% to 80, with a YTD increase of 23.0% [1] Commodity Prices - Brent Crude oil price was $66 per barrel, down 0.4% for the day and down 8.3% YTD [2] - Gold prices reached $3,395 per ounce, down 0.1% for the day but up 29.3% YTD [2] - Copper prices increased by 0.8% to $9,762 per ton, with a YTD rise of 11.3% [2] Economic Indicators - The US CPI for urban consumers showed a month-over-month increase of 0.2% and a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [3] - The PPI for final demand increased by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year [3] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index was reported at 98.6, slightly below the consensus of 98.9 [3] Corporate Insights - SMIC reported a 16% year-over-year revenue increase in Q2 2025, with a gross profit margin (GPM) of 20.4% [10] - However, SMIC's Q3 2025 revenue guidance was conservative, projecting a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, below the consensus of 7% [11] - The target price for SMIC has been raised to HK$56.70 based on a price-to-book ratio of 2.8x [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a previous rating of "Not Rated" [1]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a high-quality player in the polyether industry, with rapid growth in production and sales. The report anticipates a promising future for the company's new materials business and the continued expansion of its polyether product advantages [4][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shandong Longhua New Materials Co., Ltd., specializes in the production of high-performance, environmentally friendly polyethers. It has established a multi-layered product system, including soft foam polyethers, end-amino polyethers, and polyamide resins [16][18]. Financial Performance - From 2019 to 2024, the company's revenue grew from 2.026 billion RMB to 5.624 billion RMB, with a CAGR of 22.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 93 million RMB to 171 million RMB, with a CAGR of 12.93% [24]. In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.509 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.52% [24]. Industry Outlook - The polyether industry is expected to recover, with leading companies likely to benefit from improved market conditions. The report notes that the domestic competition landscape is optimizing, and the global competitiveness of the polyether industry is increasing [40][54]. Product Development - The company has a total polyether production capacity of 970,000 tons/year, with an additional 330,000 tons/year project under construction. The report highlights the company's core product, POP, which has a significant contribution to revenue and profitability [60][28]. Growth Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 188 million RMB, 314 million RMB, and 514 million RMB, respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 28.6, 17.1, and 10.5 times [6][8]. Market Position - The company is positioned among the top players in the polyether industry, with a market share that is expected to increase as the industry consolidates. The report indicates that the CR5 of the polyether industry rose from 38.5% in 2022 to 48% in 2024 [54][54]. Future Prospects - The company is actively expanding its product matrix, particularly in the nylon 66 value chain, with a long-term production target of 1.08 million tons/year. The first phase of the nylon 66 project is already in trial production [23][24]. Valuation - The report provides a valuation based on projected earnings and market conditions, indicating a favorable outlook for the company's stock performance in the coming years [6][8].