1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Jiao coal 2509 and Coke 2509 are mainly "oscillation", with a reference view of "range oscillation". Jiao coal and coke are expected to have a long - term upward trend in price after a short - term correction [1][5][8] 3. Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [5] - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending August 1st, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased and will gradually recover in August. From July 21st - 26th, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1000.5 vehicles, and on July 30th, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year. The daily average coke output this week was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The previous driving forces for the coal price increase have been realized, and the market's optimistic sentiment has cooled. After the correction, the coal price is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [5] Coke (J) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [8] - **Core Logic**: This week, coke supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. The profitability of downstream steel mills improved, and the decline in hot metal production was moderate. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30th, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. Coke is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and future market attention will gradually return to the actual supply of Jiao coal [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since early July 2025, the "anti-involution" policy led to a rapid rise in the domestic coal chemical industry, with methanol futures 2509 contract rising by 7.36% at most. After the policy expectation was digested, the coal chemical futures sector declined, and the methanol futures 2509 contract fell by 5.00% last week and continued to be weak this week. The 9 - 1 month spread widened, showing the weakness of the near - month contract [6]. - With the digestion of the macro - optimistic expectation, the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity futures market weakened, and the coal futures prices declined, dragging down the methanol futures prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure may lead to a downward shift in the price center. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Preface: "Anti - involution" Policy Driving Weakens, Coal Chemicals Fall Collectively - Since early July 2025, the "anti - involution" policy led to production cuts in over - capacity industries. The domestic coal chemical industry rose rapidly, with coking coal futures rising by 60% at most and coke futures rising by 32% at most. The methanol futures 2509 contract rose by 7.36% at most. After nearly a month of rise, the coal chemical futures sector declined as the policy expectation was digested [11]. 3.2 Chapter 1: Methanol Oscillates Downward, and the Month - spread Discount Widens - With the digestion of the "anti - involution" policy and the implementation of the Politburo meeting, the coal futures prices declined, and the cost support for methanol collapsed. Last week, the methanol futures 2509 contract declined from 2521 yuan/ton to 2393 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 5.00%. This week, it continued to be weak, reaching 2373 yuan/ton at one point. The 9 - 1 month spread widened to 97 yuan/ton, showing the weakness of the near - month contract [12]. 3.3 Chapter 2: Policy Bullish Expectation is Fulfilled, and Coal Adjusts - The Politburo meeting on July 30 provided long - term support for coal prices by strengthening the expectation of supply contraction. The monetary policy helped reduce the production cost of coking enterprises. Since coal is the main raw material for methanol and accounts for over 70% of the domestic methanol production process, the methanol price was also affected. After the bullish expectation was fulfilled, the coal futures declined, and the cost support for methanol collapsed [14][15]. 3.4 Chapter 3: The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Production Shrinks Significantly - In August, the production profit margin of domestic coal - to - methanol enterprises declined. As of August 1, the cost profit margin of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was about 23.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.24%; in Shandong, it was about 12.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.66%; in Inner Mongolia, it was about 16.28%, a week - on - week decrease of 13.97% [16]. 3.5 Chapter 4: The Domestic Methanol Supply Pressure Continues to Increase - In July 2025, although there were concentrated maintenance in domestic methanol production areas, the domestic methanol price did not improve significantly due to the high inventory of the middle and lower reaches. The average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92% as of August 1, 2025, slightly increasing week - on - week, slightly decreasing month - on - month, and significantly increasing year - on - year. The weekly methanol output was 193.02 million tons, slightly increasing week - on - week, significantly decreasing month - on - month, and significantly increasing year - on - year. Considering the new installations to be put into operation in the second half of the year, the supply pressure is expected to remain high [24]. 3.6 Chapter 5: More Overseas Methanol Ships Arrive at Ports, and the Import Pressure Increases - In the third quarter, the import expectation in August 2025 was significantly raised. It is estimated that the import supply will exceed 1.35 million tons, with about 750,000 tons from Iran and over 600,000 tons from non - Iranian sources. The overall overseas inventory is high, and the spot demand in Europe, India, and Southeast Asia is weak. Spot from non - Iranian Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Europe is being shipped to China. If there is no increase in MTO load and no good restocking demand in the inland before the peak season, the port inventory may accumulate rapidly [25]. 3.7 Chapter 6: Downstream Consumption is in the Off - season, and the Weak Demand Factor is Prominent - Since the third quarter, the traditional and olefin demand for domestic methanol has weakened. As of August 1, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 28.55%, slightly increasing week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.72%, slightly increasing week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 88.79%, slightly decreasing week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 54.84%, slightly decreasing week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, slightly decreasing week - on - week and month - on - month. The futures profit margin of methanol to olefin was - 87 yuan/ton, significantly increasing week - on - week and slightly increasing month - on - month [29]. 3.8 Chapter 7: The Supply - Demand Structure Weakens, and Port Inventory Accumulation Intensifies - In July, the inland methanol inventory decreased slightly, with the inventory at 324,700 tons as of July 31, 2025, a week - on - week decrease of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 75,600 tons. However, due to more overseas imports and weak domestic downstream demand, the port inventory accumulation pressure was obvious. As of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 63,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons [41]. 3.9 Chapter 8: Summary - With the digestion of the macro - optimistic expectation, the bullish sentiment in the domestic commodity futures market weakened, and the coal futures prices declined, dragging down the methanol futures prices. The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure may lead to a downward shift in the price center. The domestic methanol futures 2509 contract is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - The domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and stable trend after the full release of negative sentiment, with the futures price finding support at the 40 - and 60 - day moving averages [4]. - The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a volatile and weak trend under the dominance of bearish factors, dragged down by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures and the weak supply - demand fundamentals of methanol [4]. - The prices of domestic and foreign crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and weak trend under the dominance of bearish sentiment, as the supply pressure increases after OPEC+ oil - producing countries decide to significantly expand production in September [5]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of July 27, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 640,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons or 0.91%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 2.70% to 75,800 tons, while the general trade inventory increased by 1.42% to 564,600 tons. The storage rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 0.38 percentage points, and the pick - up rate increased by 0.63 percentage points; the storage rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.67 percentage points, and the pick - up rate increased by 0.14 percentage points [8]. - As of August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year sharp decline of 9.22 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a week - on - week slight decline of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year slight increase of 2.76 percentage points [8]. - In the terminal retail sector, in June 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 56.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.9 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry [8]. - From January to June 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 15.621 million and 15.653 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% and 11.4%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 6.968 million and 6.937 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%, and the new - car sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 44.3% of the total new - car sales [9]. Methanol - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 81.92%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.26%, a month - on - month slight decline of 3.28%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 11.46%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9302 million tons, a week - on - week slight increase of 31,300 tons, a month - on - month significant decline of 56,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 312,000 tons compared to 1.6182 million tons last year [10]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was 28.55%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.59%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.72%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.41%. The acetic acid operating rate was 88.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 4.16%. The MTBE operating rate was 54.84%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 2.32%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.72%, a week - on - week slight decline of 0.70 percentage points and a month - on - month slight decrease of 2.67 percentage points. As of August 1, 2025, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 87 yuan/ton, a week - on - week significant recovery of 249 yuan/ton and a month - on - month slight recovery of 21 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 650,300 tons, a week - on - week significant increase of 63,200 tons, a month - on - month significant increase of 150,600 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 158,000 tons. As of the week of July 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China was 324,700 tons, a week - on - week slight decrease of 15,200 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 16,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year decrease of 75,600 tons compared to 400,300 tons last year [11][13] Crude Oil - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 415, a week - on - week slight decrease of 7 and a year - on - year decrease of 67. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.314 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day [13]. - As of the week of July 25, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 7.698 million barrels and a year - on - year significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 690,000 barrels; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory was 402.7 million barrels, a week - on - week slight increase of 238,000 barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was maintained at 95.4%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a year - on - year significant increase of 5.3 percentage points [13]. - As of July 29, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 156,023 contracts, a week - on - week slight increase of 2,692 contracts and a significant decrease of 49,956 contracts or 24.25% compared to the June average of 205,979 contracts. As of July 29, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 249,973 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 22,728 contracts and a significant increase of 63,690 contracts or 34.19% compared to the June average of 186,283 contracts [14]. 2. Spot Price Table - The spot price of Shanghai rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 14,365 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was +35 yuan/ton, a change of - 55 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of methanol was 2,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 2,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis was +20 yuan/ton, a change of +3 yuan/ton [16]. - The spot price of crude oil was 495.7 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the futures price of the main contract was 514.3 yuan/barrel, a decrease of 13.6 yuan/barrel from the previous day; the basis was - 18.6 yuan/barrel, a change of +12.9 yuan/barrel [16]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including basis, month - to - month spread, inventory, and net position changes, with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Research Institute [17][30][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For coke, this week's supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, with the fundamentals still under some pressure. However, the profitability rate of downstream steel mills improved month - on - month, and the molten iron output showed certain resilience. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. In the short term, coke futures may fluctuate widely, and future market focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending August 1, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 tons, flat week - on - week and 0.6 tons higher than last year. The supply from Mongolia increased rapidly. The fundamentals of coking coal did not improve significantly. After the previous upward drivers were realized, the coking coal futures corrected from high levels. In the long - term, after the capacity optimization and upgrade of the coal industry, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise [6][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Information - The land market in core Chinese cities showed a trend of "decreasing volume but improving quality" from January to July. The average premium rate of land transactions in first - and second - tier core cities exceeded 10%. The average transaction floor price of residential land in 300 cities increased by 34.3% year - on - year, and the land transfer revenue increased by more than 20% [8]. - On August 4, the price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market rose by 50 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - For coke, the current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port's FOB was 1,420 yuan/ton, up 7.58% week - on - week; at Qingdao Port's ex - warehouse, it was 1,400 yuan/ton, up 1.45% week - on - week [10]. - For coking coal, the current price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,150 yuan/ton, up 11.65% week - on - week; Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,490 yuan/ton, up 1.36% week - on - week; Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 10.00% week - on - week [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,615.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 30,451, and the open interest was 25,782 [13]. - The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,141.0 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2.33%. The trading volume was 1,908,758, and the open interest was 487,977 [13]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - There are charts showing the inventory of coke (including independent coking plants, steel mill coking plants, ports, and total inventory), the inventory of coking coal (including mine mouth, ports, steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants), domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washery production, and coking plant operation [14][20][26] 3.5 Future Outlook - Coke futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and the market will gradually focus on the actual supply of coking coal [5][33]. - After the correction of coking coal futures, the coal price center is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [6][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the gold price first declined and then rebounded. At the end of July, the US reached new tariff agreements with Japan and Europe, and a new round of China-US talks was held in Sweden. The uncertainty of tariffs decreased significantly, market risk appetite continued to rise, and the gold price continued to fall. However, the unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [3][10][23]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The weekly trend is presented through the linkage chart of the US dollar index and the futures closing price of COMEX gold [7][9]. 1.2 Indicator Price Changes | Indicator | August 1 | July 25 | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | 3,416.00 | 3,338.50 | 2.32% | | COMEX Silver | 37.11 | 38.33 | -3.18% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | 770.72 | 777.32 | -0.85% | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | 8,918.00 | 9,392.00 | -5.05% | | US Dollar Index | 98.69 | 97.67 | 1.05% | | US Dollar against Offshore RMB | 7.19 | 7.17 | 0.31% | | 10-Year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.90 | 1.96 | -0.06 | | S&P 500 | 6,238.01 | 6,388.64 | -2.36% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | 67.26 | 65.07 | 3.37% | | COMEX Gold-Silver Ratio | 92.06 | 87.11 | 5.69% | | SHFE Gold-Silver Ratio | 86.42 | 82.76 | 4.42% | | SPDR Gold ETF | 953.08 | 957.09 | -4.01 | | iShare Gold ETF | 450.04 | 449.60 | 0.44% | [8] 2. Unexpectedly Poor Non-Farm Payrolls, Gold Price Rebounds - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. The unexpectedly poor US non-farm payrolls data on Friday night caused the gold price to rebound sharply. In July, the newly added non-farm payrolls were only 73,000 (expected 110,000), the lowest since October 2024. In addition, historical data was also significantly revised downward. The data for May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and that for June was revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. The total revision for the two months was 258,000, the worst three-month average since the pandemic (with an average of only 35,000 per month). The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (previous value 4.1%), rising for the third consecutive month. The labor participation rate dropped to 62.2%, a three-year low, reflecting the shrinkage of the labor supply due to the tightening of immigration policies. On Friday, the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield declined significantly due to the non-farm payrolls data. The US stock market showed a high-level decline trend, and market panic increased significantly [10][12][14]. 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long position of non-commercial traders on COMEX has been continuously rising. According to the data on July 29, compared with the previous week, the long position changed by -30,708 contracts, the short position changed by -1,266 contracts, and the net long position changed by -29,442 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to the price trend of precious metals than the gold ETF, but its update frequency is low and its timeliness is poor. Last week, the bullish sentiment in the domestic market cooled down, silver prices continued to fall from high levels, and the gold-silver ratio began to rebound. Since late July, the holdings of precious metal ETFs have shown a slight decline [18][20][22]. 4. Conclusion - The gold price first declined and then rebounded last week. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data rebounded more than expected, and the non-farm payrolls data was disappointing, which increased the market's expectation of a US economic recession and was beneficial to the gold price. In addition, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also beneficial to the gold price. It is expected that the gold price will run strongly, and attention can be paid to the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Benefiting from the optimistic expectations and cost support brought by the strength of coke, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was relatively weak, industrial contradictions were likely to accumulate, and there was no positive news from the ore end, so the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [4][64]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Expected Dominance of the Black Market and the Rise of Ferrosilicon Manganese - In July, both the equity and commodity markets rose, benefiting from the positive expectations of the "anti - involution" policy. Industrial products in China increased collectively, and the black metals were also outstanding, with all futures prices rising significantly. The "anti - involution" was the trigger, and there were industrial and macro - level bases for this upward trend. In the off - season, the industrial contradictions in the black industry accumulated less, some varieties fell near the marginal cost, and the "anti - involution" triggered market expectations of supply - side reform, which jointly ignited the market's bullish sentiment, leading to the bottom - up rebound of black metals [8]. - Ferrosilicon manganese also rose. As of July 30, the main futures price of ferrosilicon manganese closed at 6,116 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.40% from the end of last month, and the highest price during the period reached 6,414 yuan/ton, a new high since mid - March. The strong futures price drove up the spot price, but the increase was relatively lower, and the basis weakened. The prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Tianjin increased by 4.50%, 8.89%, and 8.04% respectively. The tender price of mainstream steel mills also increased, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices was still strong. The regional price difference changed significantly during this rise, with the increases in Ningxia and Tianjin being significantly larger than that in Inner Mongolia due to the increase in speculative demand [10]. - In addition to the strong expectations, the increase in cost also promoted the rise of the ferrosilicon manganese price. During the rise of the black market, coking coal and coke performed strongly, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. The average production costs in the northern and southern regions increased by 201.7 yuan and 301.8 yuan respectively compared with the end of last month [11]. - The industry held an "anti - involution" meeting and reached a preliminary consensus on production reduction. Enterprises actively expanded manganese ore reserves to ensure cost stability after production reduction. Overall, the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose from a low level in both futures and spot markets [15]. 3.2 Weak Real - World Pattern and Limited Upward Driving Force - The strong expectations were not fully realized, and the optimistic sentiment was revised. The Politburo meeting on July 30 adjusted the relevant statements, and the market's expectations for the anti - involution policy were repeated. The meeting did not directly mention real estate, weakening the market's expectations of policy relaxation in the real estate sector. The recently announced PMI data was lower than expected, with the value in July being 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [16]. - Affected by this, the market sentiment of ferrosilicon manganese weakened, and the operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. Currently, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese was decreasing. The inventory in all major links decreased, especially the exchange warehouse receipts. The inventory of steel mills continued to be at a low level, and the inventory of production enterprises decreased from a high level. As of the week of August 1, the total in - plant inventory of ferrosilicon manganese production enterprises was 164,000 tons, which had decreased for four consecutive weeks. The inventory of steel mills also decreased, and the exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 52,700 tons compared with the end of June. However, once the demand weakened, the supply - demand contradiction might intensify, and the inventory was likely to accumulate again [19]. - Since mid - May, ferrosilicon manganese enterprises have actively resumed production, and the output has increased significantly. In July, the output was 819,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. High - frequency data showed that the production of enterprises was stable, and the supply remained relatively high. As of the week of August 1, the operating rate of 187 independent ferrosilicon manganese enterprises was 42.18%, and the daily average output was 27,260 tons. The production in the main producing areas increased, and the output in Yunnan also increased significantly due to the seasonal factor of the wet season. Other regions' production was relatively stable [24][27]. - After the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose, the business situation of enterprises improved significantly, and the supply was expected to remain at a high level. As of July 30, the production costs in the northern and southern regions increased, but the spot price increased more, and the spot profit improved significantly. Ferrosilicon manganese still had an over - supply situation, and there were many new production capacities. In 2024, the total planned production capacity was 7.774 million tons, and in 2025, the planned production capacity was more than 3.5 million tons [34][36]. - Different from the supply situation, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese remained weakly stable. In the traditional off - season of the steel market, the demand for building materials was weak, and the output of rebar decreased, which affected the demand for ferrosilicon manganese. As of the week of August 1, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon manganese was 123,700 tons, a decrease of 1.72% from the end of June. The positive factor was that the tender volume and price of mainstream steel mills increased in July. Although steel mills were profitable and actively producing, the demand for ferrosilicon manganese was unlikely to increase significantly, and attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions [37][38]. - In conclusion, due to the high - level rigid demand and the release of speculative demand, the inventory of ferrosilicon manganese decreased, but its supply - demand pattern was weak. With the improvement of profitability and the unchanged over - supply situation, the supply continued to increase while the demand remained weakly stable. If the market returned to the industrial logic, the price of ferrosilicon manganese was likely to be under pressure [46]. 3.3 Changing Supply - Demand Pattern of Manganese Ore and Difficult - to - Sustain Cost Support - During the rise of the black market in July, coking coal and coke were the strongest, providing cost support for ferrosilicon manganese. However, the subsequent upward space was limited. The main factors determining the cost of ferrosilicon manganese were the ore end and electricity price. Recently, the price of manganese ore was mostly stable, and the electricity price did not change much, so the increase in the cost of ferrosilicon manganese was limited [47]. - The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was changing, gradually shifting from a tight supply situation at the beginning of the year to an over - supply situation, as reflected by the continuous increase in port inventory. As of the week of July 25, the total port inventory of manganese ore was 449,500 tons, an increase of 271,000 tons from the end of June. The increase in inventory was mainly due to the increase in supply, with the latest shipment volume reaching 1.1124 million tons, a new high for the single - week shipment volume this year. The increase in supply came from the recovery of the production capacity of South22 in Australia and the high - level shipment from South Africa [51]. - Different from the continuous increase in supply, the demand for manganese ore remained weakly stable. Although the price of ferrosilicon manganese rose and the business situation of production enterprises improved, the raw material procurement was mainly on - demand, and the port clearance volume changed little. As of the week of July 25, the port clearance volume of manganese ore was 516,400 tons, a decrease of 69,600 tons from the end of last month [60]. - In summary, the strength of coke provided support for ferrosilicon manganese, but the main factors determining its cost were the ore end and electricity price. Currently, the electricity price was stable, while the supply of manganese ore was increasing and the demand was weak. The price of manganese ore was likely to be under pressure, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue [63]. 3.4 Conclusion - Benefiting from the positive policy expectations of "anti - involution", the black metals rose collectively since July, and the price of ferrosilicon manganese also increased. However, the strong expectations were not fully realized, and the market operation logic was likely to switch to the industrial side. The supply - demand pattern of ferrosilicon manganese was weak, with increasing supply and weakly stable demand. The supply - demand pattern of manganese ore was also changing, and the cost - driven increase was difficult to continue. Under the dominance of the industrial logic, the trend of ferrosilicon manganese was expected to fluctuate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the anti - involution policy in the industry [64].

从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜呈现减仓反弹态势，空头了结意愿较强。宏观层面，上 周五美国非农就业爆冷，市场风险偏好下降，本周一国内市场氛围 较好，有色呈现反弹态势。产业层面，本周一电解铜小幅累库。技 术层面，主力期价位于 7 月低位，有一定技术支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝早盘小幅下挫后，日内呈现震荡上行态势，持仓量变化 不大。宏观层面，周一国内市场情绪较为稳定，且铝国内定价较强， 上周五对非农就业爆冷反应不大。产业层面，本周一 Myste ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Copper: With the domestic bullish sentiment cooling and the US dollar index rebounding, copper prices are under pressure. The US tariff policy excluding refined copper and the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data have mixed impacts. Continued attention is needed on whether overseas markets trade on recession. In China, it's the off - season for the industry, and inventory reduction at low levels has slowed. Short - term Shanghai copper is at the July low, and technical support at this level should be monitored [2][56] - Aluminum: The domestic bullish sentiment has cooled, and aluminum prices have declined. The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has a relatively small impact on aluminum prices. Attention should be paid to whether overseas markets conduct recession trading. At the industrial level, it's the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has dropped, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been rising. In the short term, with macro cooling and industrial inventory accumulation, aluminum prices are weak, and attention should be paid to the July low - level technical support [3][56] Summary Based on the Table of Contents 1. Macro Factors - Overseas: The non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly poor, leading to a significant decline in risk appetite [7] - Domestic: After the Politburo meeting, there was a strong willingness among bulls to close their positions [7] 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity - Price Trends - With the cooling of domestic bullish sentiment and the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices have been under pressure. The US tariff policy and non - farm payrolls data have had mixed impacts on copper prices [2][56] 2.2 Copper Ore Processing Fees Maintained at a Low Level - Since January, copper ore processing fees have been continuously decreasing, reflecting both a tight copper ore supply and over - capacity in smelting. The domestic copper ore port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year, indicating an expected tight supply at the domestic mine end and that the low TC is mainly due to over - capacity in smelting [22] 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Reduction Slowed - In the domestic off - season, the reduction of electrolytic copper inventory at low levels has slowed [2][27][56] 2.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided other than the figure of copper downstream monthly capacity utilization 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity - Price Trends - The domestic bullish sentiment cooled, and aluminum prices declined. The impact of the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on aluminum prices was relatively small [3][56] 3.2 Upstream Industrial Chain - No specific analysis content provided other than figures related to bauxite port inventory and alumina price 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Accumulation - In the off - season for downstream industries, the operating rate has dropped, and electrolytic aluminum social inventory has been rising [3][56] 3.4 Downstream Initial Stage - No specific analysis content provided other than figures related to aluminum rod capacity utilization, 6063 aluminum rod processing fees, and 6063 aluminum rod inventory 4. Conclusion - Copper: Similar to the core view, copper prices are under pressure due to various factors, and attention should be paid to overseas recession trading and low - level technical support [2][56] - Aluminum: Similar to the core view, aluminum prices are weak due to macro cooling and industrial inventory accumulation, and attention should be paid to overseas recession trading and low - level technical support [3][56]

3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量延续回升，整体增幅有限，海外矿石供应趋稳运行。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变化 | 上月末值 | 月度变化 | 月度变化 | 同期值 | 同期变化 | 同期变化 | | | | | | | （%） | | | （%） | | | （%） | | 到货量 | 北方六港 | 1,253.00 | 1,157.40 | 95.60 | 8.26% | 1,157.40 | 95.60 | 8.26% | 1,379.50 | -126.50 | -9.17% | | | 全国45港 | 2,507.80 | 2,240.50 | 267.30 | 11.93% | 2,240.50 | 267.30 | 11.93% | 2,610.70 | -102.90 | -3.94% | | | 全国47港 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market has a relatively strong risk appetite, and stock indices are oscillating upwards. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1518.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a high - level risk appetite among stock market investors [3]. - The economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, reducing the short - term expectation of policy intensification. The subsequent incremental positive factors need to wait until October, so the positive policy drive has weakened recently [3]. - Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to lock in profits. Therefore, the stock indices have a short - term need for technical consolidation. However, external risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, the stock market risk appetite is at a high level, and there are few negative factors. In the short term, the stock indices are more likely to rise than fall. Overall, the stock indices are upward - trending in the long - term and will mainly oscillate within a range in the short - term [3]. - The implied volatility of options is currently in the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 4, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.49% to 2.890; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.46% to 4.152; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.38% to 4.279; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.39% to 4070.70; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% to 6739.69; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.76% to 6.335; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.08% to 2.537; the GEM ETF rose 0.43% to 2.313; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.31% to 2.886; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% to 2769.39; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.19% to 1.10; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.22% to 1.08 [5]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different ETF and index options have different volume and open interest PCR values, and most of them have changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 106.66 (previous day: 109.66), and the open interest PCR was 89.70 (previous day: 84.31) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of different options are also presented. For instance, the implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options' August 2025 at - the - money options was 13.67%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 9.69% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. For example, for SSE 50ETF options, there are charts showing the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, etc. [9][10][11]