1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic situation shows a weak recovery, with 10 - month economic data indicating mixed trends in various sectors. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile recovery, and the stock market has different trends in insurance capital investment and institutional research preferences. For 2026, the economy is expected to have positive growth, and different investment strategies are recommended [32][33]. - The commodity market is affected by factors such as policy, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical situation, resulting in price fluctuations and changes in market structure [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter. The manufacturing PMI in October was 49%, lower than the previous and the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from the previous month. The social financing scale in October was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant decrease from the previous month [1]. - In October, CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, a narrower decline than before. Fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 1.7% year - to - date, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.28% year - to - date [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In October, China's industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 462.91 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase. Platinum and palladium futures will be listed on November 27, 2025 [2]. - On November 14, 42 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 27 had negative basis. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs", excluding some agricultural products [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - London's basic metals all declined due to the Fed's policy uncertainty and weak economic data. The demand for lithium carbonate in 2025 is expected to reach 155 tons, with an oversupply of about 20 tons. In 2026, the demand is expected to increase by 30%, and the price may rise [4][5]. - The expansion project of Northern Zhongxin Antai Rare Earth Metals was put into production, increasing the production capacity and product variety. On November 13, zinc inventory reached a new high in over a month, while lead inventory decreased [5][6]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of early November, the prices of coking coal and coke increased. The production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The shipping volume of iron ore to China increased, but port inventory reached an eight - month high [7][8][9]. - The Indonesian government set the benchmark prices for different grades of coal in the second half of November. The steel industry should seize development opportunities, improve product quality, and enhance the self - sufficiency rate of iron ore [8][9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The first gas storage group in Northwest China started winter gas supply, with a maximum daily supply of over 5 million cubic meters. The Russian port of Novorossiysk stopped oil exports due to a drone attack and then resumed operations on November 16 [10][11]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Over 80% of winter wheat has been sown in China. The US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high. India is considering resuming wheat product exports, and the US and Switzerland adjusted agricultural product tariffs [12]. - The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 15 decreased by 15.5% [13]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 17, the central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, 112.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 12 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits will mature. On November 14, the central bank conducted 21.28 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 7.11 billion yuan [15][16]. 3.3.2 Key News - An important article by Xi Jinping emphasizes the development of new - quality productivity. Han Wenxiu mentions cultivating emerging and future industries. China's economic data in October shows a stable operation, and the government promotes consumption and implements fiscal and monetary policies [17][18][19]. - The real estate market shows price declines, and the government promotes "two - major" construction. The financial market needs improvement, and the central bank and financial regulatory authorities take measures. The bond market has rating changes and redemption events [19][20][24]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The Chinese bond market fluctuated narrowly, with mixed changes in bond yields and futures. The money market funds were balanced, and the overnight repurchase rate increased. The exchange - traded bond market had different trends for different bonds, and the convertible bond index declined [26][27]. - The yields of European and US bonds increased, and the money market interest rates showed different trends. The central bank's bond issuance had specific winning bid yields and multiples [29][30]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1007, down 48 basis points. The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [31]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market will maintain a volatile recovery, and the 10 - year treasury bond rate may decline. Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the bond market's allocation power is neutral [32][33]. - CITIC Construction Investment predicts that the GDP in 2026 will grow by about 5%, and recommends investment in three main lines. CITIC Securities believes that the wealth management industry is in a transformation period [33]. - Yangtze River Fixed Income believes that the probability of a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut is low, and the interest rate cut window may open. CICC Fixed Income believes that the bond market may have a configuration opportunity [34]. 3.4 Stock Market - At the end of Q3 2025, the insurance funds' stock investment balance increased significantly, with bank stocks being the main investment target. In November, nearly 770 companies were surveyed by institutions, with a focus on the electronics and machinery sectors [37]. - South - bound funds have been flowing in for 26 consecutive weeks, and Xiaomi Group - W received the highest net purchase in the past week [37][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the stock index will mainly show range - bound fluctuations. The short - term market is likely to fluctuate repeatedly as the rhythm of the game between the expectation of policy benefits and the profit - taking of profitable funds determines the short - term market. In the medium - term, the stock index is strong, supported by the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market [1][5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "strong", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "strong", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". Last week, each stock index showed an oscillatory consolidation trend, and it dropped significantly on Friday. As the stock index rebounded to near the previous high yesterday, combined with the weakening of domestic investment and consumption data and the cooling of overseas AI technology stocks, some investors' willingness to take profits increased, leading to a technical correction of the stock index. In the long - run, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the upward movement of the stock index [5].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2509 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is to be weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation due to a decrease in short - term interest rate cut expectations and the existence of medium - to - long - term easing expectations [1] - For financial futures index stock sectors including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, the economic data shows resilience, and there is no high necessity for additional easing at the end of the year, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL2509, the short - term is to oscillate, the medium - term is to oscillate, the intraday is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that short - term interest rate cut expectations decline while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Stock Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Last week, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Currently, they are in a state with limited upward and downward space. In the long run, the lack of effective domestic demand requires a loose monetary environment, supporting Treasury bond futures. In the short term, economic data shows resilience, and there is no high need for additional easing at the end of the year, and the short - term interest rate cut possibility is low, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures [5]

Report Overview - This is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for November 17, 2025, providing data on various futures products including basis, spreads, and cross - product ratios [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - No clear - stated core view in the report. It mainly presents daily variety arbitrage data for different futures products including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - The report shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month, 9 - 1 month) of power coal from November 10 to November 14, 2025 [1][2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on the basis of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are provided, including values such as basis in yuan per ton and ratios [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are given [9] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented [10] - **Cross - Product Spreads**: Cross - product spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are shown [10] Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are provided [20] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are presented [19] - **Cross - Product Spreads**: Cross - product spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are shown [19] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are provided [29] London Market - Data on LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin including LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss on November 14, 2025 are presented [34] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans 1, soybeans 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are provided [40] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans 1, soybeans 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are presented [40] - **Cross - Product Ratios**: Cross - product ratios of soybeans 1/corn, soybeans 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are shown [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from November 10 to November 14, 2025 are provided [51] - **Cross - Period Spreads**: Cross - period spreads (next - month - current - month, next - quarter - current - quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are presented [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range. Last week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the upside and downside of Treasury bond futures are limited. In the long - term, there is still a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand in China. The latest consumption and investment data released by the statistics bureau are weak. A relatively loose monetary environment is needed to stabilize macro - domestic demand, providing strong long - term support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short term, this year's economic data shows resilience, and there is no high need to further loosen policies at the end of the year. Especially, the recent overseas expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts have been volatile, and the possibility of an interest rate cut in the short term is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited. Overall, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [3][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - Focuses on the price trends of TL2512, T2512, TF2512, and TS2512 Treasury bonds, but no specific trend analysis is provided in the given content [7][10][12][15]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Indicators - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: Includes the interest rate term structure of Treasury - local bonds and ChinaBond Treasury bonds [17][19]. - **Central Bank's Open - Market Operations**: Presents a chart of the central bank's open - market operations [21]. - **Treasury Bond Yield Curve**: Focuses on the Treasury bond yield curve [22][24]. - **Market Interest Rate and Policy Interest Rate**: Focuses on the relationship between market interest rates and policy interest rates [27]. 3.3 Conclusion - Reiterates that in the short term, Treasury bond futures are expected to trade in a range, with the same reasons as the core view [30].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 股指衍生品 | 周报 2025 年 11 月 17 日 股指衍生品 专业研究·创造价值 股指维持区间震荡 核心观点 股指期货：股指维持区间震荡 上周各股指均呈现震荡整理的走势，上周五股指高位回落大幅 收跌。随着昨日股指反弹至前期高点附近，叠加最新公布的国内投 资消费数据走弱以及海外 AI 科技股票降温，部分投资者止盈意愿 上升，股指技术性回调。目前政策利好预期与资金净流入股市趋势 共同构成股指中长期向上的强力支撑，但是政策利好预期与获利资 金止盈相互博弈的节奏决定着短线行情，短期行情震荡反复的可能 性较大。总的来说，短期内股指区间震荡为主。 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 17 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 ETF 期权与股 ...

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳运行，成交表现一般，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹产量持续下 降，但库存水平偏高，且持续性存疑，供应端利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹需求持续走弱，高频 指标延续下行，继续位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见好转，后续需求降迎来季节性走弱。目 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供应扰动仍存，焦煤震荡下行 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 成本支撑弱化，焦炭向下调整 | ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 11 月 14 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75.7 万吨，环比增 1.9 万 吨，同比减 3.3 万吨。下游焦化厂由于焦炭第四轮涨价遇阻，吨焦盈利周环比下降 12 元/吨， 至-34 元/吨，生产积极性偏低。截至 11 月 14 日当周，钢联口径全样本独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化 厂焦炭 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-17 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国国会参议院已就结束联邦政府"停摆"达成一致，市场乐观情绪有所回暖，提振 投资者风险偏好。当前国内甲醇开工率 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For gold, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed turning hawkish has led to a short - term decline in gold prices [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "strong", "strong", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias" respectively, with a reference view of "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices in the long run [1][4]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Last week, gold prices first rose and then fell. The rise was due to the restoration of market liquidity after the US government "re - opened", with New York gold rebounding above $4200 and Shanghai gold above 960 yuan. The sharp decline on Friday was mainly due to the Fed turning hawkish. In the short term, gold prices have fallen after rising, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to close positions. Continuously monitor the support at the $4000 level for New York gold [3]. Copper (CU) - Last week, copper prices also first rose and then fell, similar to the trend of gold prices. The rise was due to the US Senate reaching an agreement to end the federal government "shutdown", which increased market risk appetite and restored market liquidity. The decline was due to the Fed turning hawkish and the decrease in market expectations of interest rate cuts. Additionally, LME copper is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices. In the short term, monitor the resistance at the $11,000 level for LME copper [4].