Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock market has a relatively strong risk appetite, and stock indices are oscillating upwards. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1518.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume remains above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a high - level risk appetite among stock market investors [3]. - The economy showed strong resilience in the second quarter, reducing the short - term expectation of policy intensification. The subsequent incremental positive factors need to wait until October, so the positive policy drive has weakened recently [3]. - Since late June, some stocks have achieved significant gains, and some profit - taking funds have a need to lock in profits. Therefore, the stock indices have a short - term need for technical consolidation. However, external risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, the stock market risk appetite is at a high level, and there are few negative factors. In the short term, the stock indices are more likely to rise than fall. Overall, the stock indices are upward - trending in the long - term and will mainly oscillate within a range in the short - term [3]. - The implied volatility of options is currently in the normal range. Considering the long - term upward trend of stock indices, investors can continue to hold bull spreads or ratio spreads for a mild bullish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - **ETF and Index Performance**: On August 4, 2025, 50ETF rose 0.49% to 2.890; 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.46% to 4.152; 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.38% to 4.279; the CSI 300 Index rose 0.39% to 4070.70; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.04% to 6739.69; 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.76% to 6.335; 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.08% to 2.537; the GEM ETF rose 0.43% to 2.313; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 0.31% to 2.886; the SSE 50 Index rose 0.55% to 2769.39; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.19% to 1.10; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.22% to 1.08 [5]. - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: Different ETF and index options have different volume and open interest PCR values, and most of them have changed compared to the previous trading day. For example, the volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 106.66 (previous day: 109.66), and the open interest PCR was 89.70 (previous day: 84.31) [6]. - **Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility**: The implied volatility and 30 - day historical volatility of different options are also presented. For instance, the implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options' August 2025 at - the - money options was 13.67%, and the 30 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 9.69% [7]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report provides a series of charts for different types of options, including the trend of the underlying, option volatility, volume PCR, open interest PCR, implied volatility curves, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options for different terms. For example, for SSE 50ETF options, there are charts showing the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, volume PCR, etc. [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement of the macro - sentiment due to the US reaching tariff agreements with major economies and the rise in geopolitical risk premiums are the main drivers for the rebound of domestic and international oil prices this week. However, with OPEC+ oil - producing countries continuing to accelerate production increases in September, the supply is under negative pressure, and the supply - demand structure of crude oil has weakened. It is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [5][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Spot Price Soars and Basis Discount Narrows Significantly - As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was reported at $71.26 per barrel, equivalent to RMB 509.5 per barrel, with a significant weekly increase of RMB 26.3 per barrel. The main contract 2509 of domestic crude oil futures closed at RMB 527.9 per barrel, rising significantly by RMB 15.0 per barrel week - on - week. The discount narrowed significantly, and the basis between the two was RMB 18.4 per barrel [9]. 3.1.2 Oil - Producing Countries Increase Production Again, and Crude Oil Declines Weakly - The US reaching tariff agreements with other countries improves the macro - factor, boosting the risk appetite of the global commodity market. The US increasing sanctions on Russian crude oil may lead to a decline in supply. Although OPEC+ oil - producing countries maintain the production increase plan for September, the actual supply growth may be less than expected. Due to OPEC+ continuing to accelerate production increases in September, under the suppression of supply negative factors, last Friday, domestic and international crude oil futures prices showed a weak downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed down 2.95% to RMB 513.0 per barrel [5][15]. 3.2 Escalation of Crude Oil Supply - Demand Surplus and Faster Production Increase Rhythm 3.2.1 OPEC+ Accelerates Capacity Release, and the Expectation of Supply Surplus Increases - After a significant and unexpected production increase in May, OPEC+ oil - producing countries accelerated production increases for the second consecutive month, exceeding market expectations. In May and June, they each increased production by 411,000 barrels per day. In the past three months, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased production by 2.2 million barrels per day, completing nearly half of the 18 - month production cutback task. Saudi Arabia, Russia and other countries have reiterated their commitment to market stability and increased production. This decision may suppress oil prices in the short term but may intensify quota disputes among members and raise concerns about supply surplus in the long term. In June 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 27.235 million barrels per day, with a slight month - on - month increase of 219,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 700,000 barrels per day [22][23][24]. 3.2.2 Non - OPEC Oil - Producing Countries' Capacity Remains at a High Level - As the leader of non - OPEC oil - producing countries, the US has maintained a high level of crude oil production since 2024. As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 415, a slight weekly decrease of 7 and a decrease of 67 compared to the same period last year. The US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, a slight weekly increase of 41,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 14,000 barrels per day. The EIA predicts that the growth rate of US domestic crude oil production in 2025 will slow down further, with an expected increase of 160,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day this year and flat production in 2026 [37][38]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil Demand in the Northern Hemisphere is in the Seasonal Peak - The US, as the largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. July - August is the peak season for gasoline consumption. However, after the US announced a comprehensive tariff policy, many financial institutions have adjusted their crude oil demand growth forecasts downward. Energy institutions such as EIA, IEA, and OPEC have also lowered their global crude oil demand growth expectations for 2025. It is expected that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2025 will further decline [41][42]. 3.2.4 US Crude Oil Inventories Decrease Significantly, and Refinery Utilization Rate Increases Slightly - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426.7 million barrels, a significant weekly increase of 7.698 million barrels and a significant decrease of 6.358 million barrels compared to the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.553 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 690,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 402.7 million barrels, with a slight weekly increase of 238,000 barrels. The US refinery utilization rate was maintained at 95.4%, a slight weekly decrease of 0.1 percentage points, a slight monthly increase of 0.5 percentage points, and a significant year - on - year increase of 5.3 percentage points [44]. 3.2.5 China's Crude Oil Imports Increase Slightly in June 2025 - In June 2025, China's crude oil production maintained a stable growth trend, with the output of industrial enterprises above the designated size reaching 18.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The crude oil processing volume turned from a decline to an increase, reaching 62.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In June, China's crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 7.38%. Looking forward to 2025, China's crude oil processing and import consumption may be restricted by weak demand [48]. 3.3 Iran - Israel Ceasefire, and Crude Oil Premium Drops Significantly - Since the Iran - Israel conflict, domestic and international crude oil futures prices have risen significantly. After the ceasefire between Iran and Israel, the crude oil premium has rapidly shrunk. The conflict has exposed Iran's weaknesses in internal security, air defense systems, and the influence of the main - peace faction [59]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Decrease Significantly Week - on - Week - Since July 2025, international crude oil futures prices have shown a weak and volatile trend, and the market's bullish power has shrunk. As of July 22, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 153,331 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 9,096 contracts and a significant decrease of 52,648 contracts compared to the June average, a decline of 25.56%. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 227,245 contracts, a significant weekly decrease of 11,576 contracts, and a significant increase of 40,622 contracts compared to the June average, an increase of 21.83% [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, and the intraday view is specifically volatile and weak [1][5]. - The geopolitical risk premium increase was the main driver for the recent oil price rebound, but after the digestion of previous positive factors, the contract 2509 closed significantly lower by 2.86% to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price Movement and Logic - Geopolitical risks, such as the Trump administration's tough stance on Russia and potential energy trade restrictions, along with OPEC+ maintaining the September production increase plan but with actual supply growth possibly falling short of expectations, and summer demand peak and tight inventory, were the reasons for the previous oil price rebound [5]. - After the digestion of previous positive factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 2.86% lower to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to be volatile and weak on Monday [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484.7 万吨，周环比大幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term view on gold is bullish, with a mid - term view of consolidation and an intraday view of slightly bullish. The core logic is that the unexpected US non - farm payrolls data has increased market risk - aversion demand, pushing up gold prices. For copper, the short - term, mid - term and intraday views are all consolidation (slightly bullish intraday), and the recommended strategy is to wait and see, as the cooling of the domestic long - position atmosphere and the rebound of the US dollar index have pressured copper prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Outlook**: Short - term: Upward; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - **Core Logic**: The unexpected US non - farm payrolls data on Friday night led to a significant rebound in gold prices. Against the background of reduced tariff disturbances, the US inflation data exceeded expectations and non - farm payrolls were disappointing, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession, reducing market risk appetite, causing a significant decline in US stocks, and thus benefiting gold prices. Also, the expectation of a Fed rate cut may rise as the economic outlook weakens, and the US dollar index may weaken again, which is also positive for gold prices. It is expected that the gold price will move strongly, and attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the upper edge of the Q2 consolidation range [3]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term: Consolidation; Mid - term: Consolidation; Intraday: Slightly bullish. The reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic**: Last week, the domestic long - position atmosphere continued to cool, and combined with the rebound of the US dollar index, copper prices were pressured down. On Thursday, the US tariff policy excluded refined copper, causing a sharp drop in New York copper and a rapid narrowing of the spread between COMEX and LME copper, which means that the US is temporarily unable to be self - sufficient in refined copper, which is beneficial for SHFE copper and LME copper. It is the domestic industrial off - season, and the inventory reduction at a low level has slowed down. In the short - term, SHFE copper is at the July low, and attention should be paid to the technical support at the low level [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with a short - term and intraday view of weakening oscillations and a mid - term view of strengthening oscillations [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.35% to 14,245 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday [5]. - **Core Logic**: After the Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden, the positive factors have been digested, and the bearish sentiment prevails [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Change**: On the night session of last Friday, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed lower by 0.96% to 11,365 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract may maintain a weakly oscillating trend on Monday [7]. - **Core Logic**: After the Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden, the positive factors have been digested, and the bearish sentiment prevails [7]. General Rules - For varieties with night sessions, the starting price is the night - session closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - session closing price for calculating the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% an increase [3]. - The concepts of strong/weak oscillations only apply to the intraday view, not to the short - term and mid - term views [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2) Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and mid - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation and weakness [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - On the night of last Friday, domestic methanol slightly closed down 0.83% to 2383 yuan/ton. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillation - weakening trend on Monday [5] Core Logic - The recent Sino - US third - round economic and trade talks in Sweden led to the continuation of the suspension of 24% of the US's reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures as scheduled. After the digestion of positive factors, the sharp decline in coal futures prices dragged down the methanol market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The financial support for the continuous improvement of the economy has increased. China's central bank implements a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain ample liquidity and promote a decline in financial market interest rates and social comprehensive financing costs [2]. - The US labor market has slowed down rapidly, with the July non - farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.2%, which may trigger new recession concerns [3]. - The real estate industry policy implementation rhythm is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities and core areas may exceed expectations [29]. - The macro - policy may focus more on monetary policy relaxation in the third quarter, considering the low possibility of short - term fiscal incremental policies [29]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Data Overview - In Q2 2025, GDP at constant prices had a year - on - year quarterly increase of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7% [1]. - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.1%, down from 50.5% in the previous month [1]. - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.0%, 4.6%, and 8.3% respectively, with M1 and M2 showing significant increases compared to the same period last year [1]. 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the second half of 2025, including reducing the deposit reserve ratio and lowering policy interest rates [2]. - The US President Trump modified "reciprocal tariffs" for dozens of countries, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, and postponed the effective date to August 7 [2]. Metals - The price of tungsten has reached a new high due to supply contraction and an increase in long - term contract prices. In the past two weeks, the price of black tungsten concentrate has risen by 7.82% to 193,000 yuan/ton, and the price of ammonium paratungstate has risen by 7.95% to 285,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Three major steel enterprises jointly opposed the speculation of high molybdenum prices, as the profit of the industrial chain is highly concentrated in the mining end [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - The China Coking Industry Association decided to raise the price of coke on July 31, with different price increases for different types of coke [9]. - In July 2025, India's coal production was 46.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16%; sales were 53.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11% [9]. Energy and Chemicals - China plans to reform the pricing mechanism of provincial natural gas pipelines, transitioning from "one - line, one - price" and "one - enterprise, one - price" to regional pricing or unified provincial pricing [11]. - OPEC+ core members will decide whether to fully exit the 2.2 million barrels per day crude oil production cut plan in September or take a more cautious approach [12]. Agricultural Products - On August 3, the average price of live pigs was 14.29 yuan/kg, with a daily decline of 0.01 yuan/kg. The price increase at the beginning of the month failed to meet expectations [14]. - On August 1, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.60 yuan/kg, a 1.3% decrease from July 25 [15]. 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - This week, 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will expire. Last week, the central bank conducted 1.6632 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 6.9 billion yuan [16]. Important News and Information - Starting from August 8, 2025, the interest income from newly issued national bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value - added tax [17]. - The central bank requires steady and solid progress in the internationalization of the RMB, including expanding the use of RMB in trade and enhancing its financing currency function [19]. Bond Market Summary - China's bond market showed narrow - range fluctuations, with treasury bond futures rising and falling unevenly, and the yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market fluctuating within 1 bp [23]. Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.2106 against the US dollar on August 4, down 176 basis points from the previous trading day [28]. Research Report Highlights - CICC Fixed Income believes that the policy focus will shift from fiscal to monetary policy in the second half of the year, and monetary policy relaxation will help reduce the fiscal interest burden [29]. - Huatai Securities believes that the policy implementation rhythm of the real estate industry is expected to accelerate, and the policy flexibility of first - tier cities may exceed expectations [29]. 4. Stock Market Important News - The new - share market of the Beijing Stock Exchange continues to be booming. The first - day increase of Dingjia Precision on July 31 was 479.12%, and the funds frozen in the online subscription exceeded 60 billion yuan for the first time [33]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's IPO pricing mechanism has been reformed, with new rules taking effect on August 4, including optimizing the new - share allocation ratio and reducing the public shareholding threshold [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with a reference view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the strong expectations have been fulfilled, and coking coal has fallen from its high level [1][5]. - For coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively, with a reference view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the optimistic sentiment has cooled down, and coke has continued to correct [1][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation [5]. - **Supply**: As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than the same period last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased temporarily and will gradually recover in August. From July 21 - 26, the Ganqimaodu Port's Mongolian coal cumulative customs clearance was 6003 vehicles, equivalent to a daily average of 1000.5 vehicles. On July 30, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year [5]. - **Demand**: This week, the daily average coke output was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The coking coal fundamentals have not improved significantly [5]. - **Outlook**: The previous drivers that supported the upward movement of coal prices, such as anti - involution production cut expectations and Politburo meeting expectations, have basically been fulfilled. After this correction, the medium - to long - term coal price center is expected to gradually rise [5]. Coke - **Market Situation**: The intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the combined daily average coke output of independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52 million tons from the previous week but still above 240 million tons per day. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 65.37%. Although it is the traditional construction off - season, the seasonal decline in coke demand is limited [8]. - **Market Sentiment**: The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30, the strong policy expectations were fulfilled, and the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction [8]. - **Outlook**: The coke fundamentals have not changed much. In the short term, coke futures may maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, and the market's focus will gradually return to the actual supply of coking coal [8].

时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 乐观情绪修正，钢价震荡走弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 4 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格下行，成交表现偏弱，而螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，建筑钢厂生产弱稳，螺纹 周产量环比微降，但品种吨钢利润良好，供应收缩空间有限。与此同时，螺纹钢需求有所走弱，高 频指标均迎来回落，且继续位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求弱势特征未退，继续承压钢价。目前来 看，乐观情绪 ...