期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2025 年第 46 周） 一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2369.90 万吨，环比降 399.40 万吨，持续回落；其中澳矿到货量环比降 185.00 万吨，巴西矿到货环比降 145.10 万吨，其他地区矿则是降 69.30 万吨。 2、海外矿石发运大幅回升，全球矿石发运总量为 3516.40 万吨，环比增 447.38 万吨，重回年内高 位。增量主要源于主流矿商发运恢复，四大矿商合计发运增 318.67 万吨；细分地区看，澳矿发运增 239.57 万吨，巴西矿增 120.44 万吨，非澳巴矿增 87.36 万吨。 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量将触底回升，海外矿石供应相对积极。 二、矿石到货与发运数据 期货研究报告 2、全球铁矿石发运量 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This report is the Baocheng Futures variety arbitrage data daily report for November 18, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of various commodities including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Thermal Coal - The basis of thermal coal on November 17, 2025, was 32.6 yuan/ton, consistent with November 14 - 13, 2025, and up from 29.6 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025. The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads were all 0 [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - The basis data of fuel oil, crude oil/asphalt, INE crude oil from November 11 - 17, 2025, were presented, such as the basis of fuel oil being - 21.45 on November 17, 2025 [7]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from November 11 - 17, 2025, was provided. For example, the basis of rubber was - 515 yuan/ton on November 17, 2025 [9]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol were given. For instance, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 75 yuan/ton [10]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from November 11 - 17, 2025, were presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 2263 yuan/ton on November 17, 2025 [10]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from November 11 - 17, 2025, was shown. For example, the basis of rebar was 143.0 yuan/ton on November 17, 2025 [20]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal were provided. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 52 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from November 11 - 17, 2025, were presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.94 on November 17, 2025 [19]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from November 11 - 17, 2025, was given. For example, the basis of copper was 50 yuan/ton on November 17, 2025 [29]. 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on November 17, 2025, were presented. For example, the LME spread of copper was (32.62) [34]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from November 11 - 17, 2025, was provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 158 yuan/ton on November 17, 2025 [41]. - **Inter - period**: The 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month spreads of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton were given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 30 yuan/ton [41]. - **Inter - variety**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from November 11 - 17, 2025, were presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.92 on November 17, 2025 [40]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 on November 11 - 17, 2025, was shown. For example, the basis of CSI 300 was 16.65 on November 17, 2025 [52]. - **Inter - period**: The next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were provided. For example, the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 158 [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will be mainly in an interval oscillation, with intense short - term games. The medium - term view is that it is strong. The overall reference view is interval oscillation. The core logic is the game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits. In the short term, the incremental policy signals in November weaken, and as the stock index approaches the previous high, the profit - taking intention of profitable funds rises, so there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the upward trend of the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | Oscillation | Strong | Bullish | Interval Oscillation | The game between the profit - taking intention of funds and the expectation of policy benefits [1] | 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - **Viewpoints**: The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is interval oscillation [5]. - **Core Logic**: Yesterday, all stock indexes oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1930.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.1 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In the short term, there is a need for technical consolidation. In the long term, as long as the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remain unchanged, the upward trend of the stock index will continue [5].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空交织，焦煤延续震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 四轮涨价落地，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 11 月 14 日当周，全国 523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 75 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 11 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短线降息预期下降，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 备注： 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅反弹。近期央行公开市场净投放流动性，对国债期货价格起到一 定支撑作用 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-11-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 偏弱 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：近期美国国会参议院已就结束联邦政府"停摆"达成一致，市场乐观情绪有所回暖，提振 投资者风险偏好。当前国内甲醇开工率和周度产量依然维持偏高水平，外部进口压力持续增大，华 东和华南港口甲醇库存居高不下。在 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term, oscillate in the medium - term, and oscillate weakly during the day. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, as the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Although the demand has improved, the supply remains high, and the market fundamentals have not improved. The short - term positive factor is the change in the variety arbitrage logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of steel [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The resumption of production by steel mills has increased the terminal consumption of ore, but due to poor profitability of steel mills and unsolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, the demand improvement space is limited and the positive effect is weak. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will bottom out and rebound. The supply of foreign ore is active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable with a slight increase, resulting in a high supply of ore. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has improved, but the supply remains high, so the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved and the upward driving force is not strong. The short - term positive factor is the change in the variety arbitrage logic. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend on Tuesday [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 品种晨会纪要 - For the crude oil 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term outlook is volatile, and the intraday outlook is strong. The reference view is a strong operation, supported by bullish factors [1]. 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 - The latest quarterly report of OPEC turned the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply. However, with the prominence of geopolitical factors, the crude oil futures price showed a volatile and stable trend under the boost of optimistic funds. The current weak supply - demand structure of the oil market is in a game with geopolitical sentiment. The domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained a volatile and stable trend on Monday night, with a slight rebound in the futures price [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, with the short - term, medium - term trend being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the situation of weak supply and demand. The steel price is under pressure, but is supported by low valuation and cost. The subsequent trend depends on the demand performance [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price continues to oscillate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up and ferrous metals have rebounded collectively, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Although rebar production has continued to decline, the inventory level is high and the sustainability is questionable, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited [2]. - Rebar demand is poor, with high - frequency indicators remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price [2]. - The supply of rebar has shrunk to a low level, but demand is weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is under pressure. The relative positives are the low valuation and cost support [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on thermal coal spot are all "oscillation". The increase in wait - and - see sentiment has led to the temporary stability of port coal prices. Due to factors such as the approaching peak winter season, low coal stocks in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year, coal prices have been strongly rising recently. However, after the National Development and Reform Commission mentioned energy supply guarantee again, market sentiment cooled down, and it is expected that thermal coal will start to oscillate at a high level in the short term [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Price and Inventory Data - As of November 13, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 24.092 million tons, with a weekly cumulative increase of 568,000 tons, but still significantly lower than the same period last year by 3.244 million tons [4]. 3.2 Market Driving Factors - Previously, the approaching peak winter season, low coal stocks in northern ports, and the expected contraction of coal supply at the end of the year drove the recent strong operation of coal prices. Today, the National Development and Reform Commission's mention of energy supply guarantee cooled down the market sentiment [4].