Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends showing an overall weakening tendency. The main reason is the supply pressure caused by the planned production increase of major oil - producing countries [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be in a volatile state [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be in a volatile state [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2509 contract is expected to be volatile and weak, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Tuesday [1][5]. Price and Market Performance - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.28% to 510.2 yuan/barrel [5]. Core Logic - Eight major oil - producing countries among OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September this year. Although OPEC+ began to relax voluntary production cuts in April, the actual production increase has far not reached the target. OPEC's monthly report shows that OPEC+ production increased by 349,000 barrels per day in June, and the production of the 8 countries in the agreement production - increase period increased by 394,000 barrels per day [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a relatively strong manner, with an intraday view of being oscillatingly strong and a medium - term view of oscillation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, the 2509 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.73% to 14,425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [5]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the rubber market returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also continuously releasing new rubber output, resulting in a relatively high supply pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Performance**: On the night session of Monday this week, domestic synthetic rubber futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.39% to 11,450 yuan/ton. It is expected that the 2509 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillatingly strong trend on Tuesday [7]. - **Core Logic**: As the previous macro - driving force weakens, synthetic rubber returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The domestic downstream automobile market is in the off - season, and the demand - driving force is insufficient. After the previous sharp decline, the bearish sentiment in the rubber market has been released [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The demand for iron ore has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the fundamentals. Under the game of long and short factors, it is expected that the ore price will continue to oscillate and consolidate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2][3]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly stronger, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weaker. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the demand has good resilience, and the ore price is operating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - On the supply side, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, the shipment of overseas miners has decreased again (but the sustainability of the decrease at high ore prices needs to be tracked), and domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the ore supply continues to show a steady - to - rising trend. - On the demand side, steel mill production is weakening, the terminal consumption of ore is continuously weakening with an expanding decline, but the profitability of steel mills is good, and the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price [3].

宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：巴西大豆贴水持续居高不下，进口成本结构固化，国内豆类期价走势强于美豆，短期豆粕市场 的驱动依然来自远期的供应收紧预期和成本推动。豆粕期价继续保持易涨难跌走势。 品种：棕榈油(P) 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 震荡偏强 进口到港节奏，海关通关检 验，油厂开工节奏，备货需求 豆油 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏强 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the stock index is that it is upward in the medium and long term, and mainly in a range - bound oscillation in the short term. For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the overall view is upward [1][5] - The stock index has a technical consolidation need in the short term, but it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term due to factors such as the mitigation of external risks, the resilience of domestic economic data, and high risk preference in the stock market [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term is oscillation, the medium - term is upward, the intraday is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and the view reference is upward. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is oscillation with a slight upward bias, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is upward. The core logic is that the stock index oscillated and rose yesterday. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1518.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 101.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The trading volume is still above 1.5 trillion yuan, indicating a high risk preference of investors. The expectation of policy reinforcement has weakened in the short term, and there is a need for technical consolidation in the short term. However, external risks are mitigated, domestic economic data is resilient, and the stock market risk preference is high, so the stock index is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [5]

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 7 月制造业 PMI 走弱，但短期内降 息可能性较低 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各国债期货均震荡整理。由于政策面强调下半年要落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，加 上 7 月制造业 PMI 数据走弱，因此降息预期有所升 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the weak and volatile operation, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills. The short - term and intraday views of rebar 2510 are weak and volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price oscillates weakly [2]. Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar continue the seasonal weakness. The weekly output of rebar has a slight month - on - month decline, and the supply is weakly stable. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. - The demand for rebar has weakened again. The high - frequency indicators have a month - on - month decline and are at a low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season characteristics remain, and the weak demand easily puts pressure on the steel price. - Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the steel price is under pressure. But due to the low - inventory pattern, the industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downward space is limited [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and copper, along with corresponding core logics [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - **Price View** - Short - term: The price is expected to rise; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to be bullish in the short - term [1]. - **Core Logic** - In early August, the 7 - month non - farm payrolls were disappointing, and inflation unexpectedly rebounded, increasing the expectation of a US economic recession and driving up the gold price. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may rise, and the US dollar index may weaken, which is beneficial to the gold price. The market atmosphere on Monday did not continue to decline from the previous Friday night, and the equity market rebounded. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. Technically, the gold price is still in the oscillation range since the second quarter, and the technical pressure at the upper edge of the range can be noted [3]. Copper - **Price View** - Short - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; medium - term: The price is expected to fluctuate; intraday: The price is expected to be slightly stronger, and the reference view is to wait and see [1]. - **Core Logic** - On Monday, the overall market atmosphere improved, and Shanghai copper showed a trend of reducing positions and rebounding. The disappointing US non - farm payrolls in the short - term reduced market risk appetite, which was negative for copper prices, while the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts was positive. It is necessary to continuously monitor whether the global market trades on the logic of a US economic recession. The EU will suspend the implementation of two counter - measures against US tariffs in 6 months. The US tariff policy excluded refined copper last Thursday, which is beneficial to Shanghai copper and LME copper in the medium and long term. It is the off - season for domestic industrial downstream, the upstream electrolytic copper maintains high production, and social inventories have increased slightly. Technically, the copper price has strong support at the July low [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货动力煤早报（2025 年 8 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 观点参考 观点参考 品种：动力煤现货 日内观点： 中期观点： 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：供应端，7 月底部分煤矿在完成生产目标后暂时停产，煤炭产量短期下滑，但进入 8 月 以后预计迅速恢复。另外，此前国家能源局综合司的煤矿超产整治暂未引起产地安监明显收紧， 主产区煤矿旺季肩负保供职责，产量平稳运行。需求端，国家气候中心发布 8 月气候趋势预测， 显示 8 月全国大部地区气温接近常年同期到偏高，今夏第三产业和居民生活用电将有一定支撑。 库存方面，截至 7 月 31 日，环渤海 9 港煤炭总库存 2484. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of both Jiao coal 2509 and Coke 2509 are mainly "oscillation", with a reference view of "range oscillation". Jiao coal and coke are expected to have a long - term upward trend in price after a short - term correction [1][5][8] 3. Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [5] - **Core Logic**: As of the week ending August 1st, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 77.7 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 0.6 million tons higher than last year. After mines completed their production targets at the end of the month, production decreased and will gradually recover in August. From July 21st - 26th, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1000.5 vehicles, and on July 30th, the single - day customs clearance reached 1461 vehicles, a new high for the year. The daily average coke output this week was 111.78 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous week. The previous driving forces for the coal price increase have been realized, and the market's optimistic sentiment has cooled. After the correction, the coal price is expected to gradually rise in the long - term [5] Coke (J) - **Views**: Intraday and medium - term views are "oscillation with an upward bias", and the reference view is "range oscillation" [8] - **Core Logic**: This week, coke supply stabilized while demand decreased slightly, and the fundamentals still face some pressure. The profitability of downstream steel mills improved, and the decline in hot metal production was moderate. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. After the Politburo meeting on July 30th, the market's optimistic sentiment had a phased correction. Coke is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, and future market attention will gradually return to the actual supply of Jiao coal [8]