Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory and weak respectively [1][5] - Due to the weak supply - demand structure, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Monday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Time - period Views - Short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is oscillatory and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] Core Logic - Macro - level positive factors are digested, and there is a lack of fundamental support for the upward movement of methanol futures prices [5] - Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted, supply pressure has risen again, and weekly production has reached a new high [5] - Downstream demand improvement is limited, the futures profit of methanol - to - olefins has declined, which is not conducive to further reduction of port inventory [5] - With the expected increase in external imports, the future social inventory accumulation pressure has increased [5] Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly dropped 0.61% to 2,293 yuan/ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic data shows a mixed picture, with some indicators stable and others showing fluctuations. For example, GDP growth remained stable in Q1 2025, while manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs declined in April [1]. - The commodity market has various developments, including adjustments in oil prices, potential supply - demand changes in metals, and progress in energy and agricultural sectors [2][3][6][7]. - In the financial market, there are significant changes in bond yields, exchange rates, and stock market trends, influenced by factors such as monetary policy, trade policies, and corporate events [19][24][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was 5.4% year - on - year, unchanged from the previous quarter but slightly higher than the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in April 2025 dropped to 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month and 50.4% in the same period last year [1]. - Non - manufacturing PMI: Business activity in April 2025 was 50.4%, lower than 50.8% in the previous month and 51.2% in the same period last year [1]. - Social financing scale increment in April 2025 was significantly lower than the previous month, at - 658 billion yuan compared to 5896.1 billion yuan in March [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices are expected to be cut by about 230 yuan/ton on May 19, 2025, the fifth decrease this year [2]. - After the mutual tariff cuts between China and the US, freight volume between the two countries has recovered and increased, and US merchants are seeking new cooperation in China [2][11]. - Anti - dumping duties will be imposed on imported copolymerized polyoxymethylene from the US, the EU, Taiwan region, and Japan starting from May 19, 2025 [2]. 3.2.2 Metal - The London Metal Exchange plans to set a position limit to curb excessive speculation [3]. - With the upcoming US copper and aluminum tariffs, the US is experiencing a rush to import copper, with imports surging from about 70,000 tons per month to 500,000 tons per month [3]. - Morgan Stanley believes that the global copper and aluminum markets will be in a state of supply - demand balance to oversupply in 2025 [3]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Hyundai Steel will close its rebar factory in Incheon, South Korea, in April [4]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - China's first offshore CCUS well has been drilled in the Enping 15 - 1 platform in the South China Sea, with the potential to inject over 1 million tons of carbon dioxide into the seabed in 10 years and increase oil production by 200,000 tons [6]. - The construction of the 2 - gigawatt CNGD Delingha solar - thermal storage integrated project in Qinghai is in full swing [6]. - As of the end of February 2025, China's non - fossil energy power generation capacity reached 2 billion kilowatts for the first time, accounting for 58.8% of the total power generation capacity [6]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The spring sowing of grain in China has covered over 35 million mu, with progress similar to last year. Early rice seedlings are over half - grown, and nearly 10% has been transplanted [7]. - In 2024, the global coffee price soared by 38.8%, and Brazil's domestic coffee price increased by nearly 40%, affecting the cooperation model between international buyers and Brazilian exporters [7]. - The US Department of Agriculture reported that the number of pigs and piglets in the US is 74.512 million [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - The central bank net - withdrew 475.1 billion yuan from the open market last week, and 486 billion yuan of reverse repos will mature this week [9]. - On May 16, the central bank conducted 106.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 2.95 billion yuan [9]. 3.3.2 Key News - The National Bureau of Statistics will release April economic data on Monday, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce the economic situation [10]. - Financial regulators have expressed support for Beijing's development in the financial sector, including promoting technology finance and strengthening the function of the national financial management center [10]. - The pilot of spot - housing sales is being promoted, but the timing for full implementation is not yet mature [10][11]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - Treasury bond futures declined slightly, and most bond yields increased. The overnight and 7 - day repurchase rates for deposit - taking institutions rose significantly [19]. - The issuance of two batches of technological innovation bonds by New Hope Group and Tongwei Co., Ltd. was successful, with issuance scales of 500 million yuan each [14]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2037 on May 16, up 95 points from the previous trading day, and rose 424 points last week [24]. - The US dollar index rose 0.15% in late New York trading, and most non - US currencies declined [24]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CICC believes that after the Sino - US Geneva talks, bilateral tariff cuts will reduce the risk of a US economic recession and make the Fed more concerned about inflation [26]. - Guosheng Fixed - Income argues that credit demand is still bottoming out in April, and the loose monetary policy environment may continue [26]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The Hong Kong stock market has been performing well this year, and a major new energy company will list on the HKEX on May 20, making Hong Kong the world's leading IPO market in terms of fundraising [29]. - Since May, the A - share market has seen increasing institutional research, with a focus on high - end manufacturing, semiconductors, and healthcare [29]. - CITIC Construction Investment maintains a range - bound view of the A - share market but raises the oscillation center to near the half - year line [30].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The report believes that the crude oil 2507 contract will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term being in a state of shock, and intraday being shock - weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Directory Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within a week): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to a month): The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be in a state of shock [1]. - Intraday: The crude oil 2507 contract is expected to be shock - weak and run weakly [1][5]. Core Logic - Although Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and macro factors have turned optimistic, the US debt crisis in June is approaching, which may trigger a new round of negative macro - impacts. OPEC+ oil - producing countries are accelerating the pace of production increase, and the crude oil demand forecast is weak. With the expectation of a soon - to - be - reached Iran - US nuclear negotiation and the increasing expectation of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the cease - fire between the Yemeni Houthi and the US, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East have weakened, and the crude oil premium has declined. With the dominance of bearish factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a shock - weak trend on Monday [5]. Price Performance - Last Friday night, the domestic crude oil futures prices showed a shock - consolidation trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.30% to 462.5 yuan per barrel [5].

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Variety Arbitrage Data Daily Report for May 19, 2025, covering multiple commodity sectors including thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 1. Thermal Coal - **Base Price Data**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base price of thermal coal showed fluctuations, starting from -171.4 yuan/ton on May 12 and reaching -187.4 yuan/ton on May 16. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton during this period [2] 2. Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Base Price and Ratio**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base price of INE crude oil changed from -14.51 yuan/ton on May 13 to -8.53 yuan/ton on May 16. The ratio of crude oil to asphalt also fluctuated, from 0.1331 on May 12 to 0.1388 on May 16 [6] Chemical Commodities - **Base Price**: For various chemical products such as natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc., the base prices showed different trends from May 12 - 16, 2025. For example, the base price of natural rubber changed from -375 yuan/ton on May 12 to 45 yuan/ton on May 16 [7] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different chemical products also varied. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber was 95 yuan/ton [7] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads such as LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP also had different values on different dates from May 12 - 16, 2025 [7] 3. Black Metals - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of black metals including rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal showed fluctuations. For example, the base price of rebar changed from 158 yuan/ton on May 12 to 118 yuan/ton on May 16 [12] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of rebar and other black metals had different values. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 19 yuan/ton [12] - **Inter - commodity Ratios and Spreads**: The ratios such as screw/ore and spreads such as screw - hot rolled coil also changed during this period [12] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of domestic non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. showed different trends. For example, the base price of copper changed from 340 yuan/ton on May 12 to 690 yuan/ton on May 16 [20] London Market - **LME Premiums and Discounts, Shanghai - London Ratios, etc.**: On May 16, 2025, the LME premiums and discounts, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc were provided. For example, the LME premium of copper was 31.45, and the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.18 [26] 5. Agricultural Products - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, soybean meal, and corn showed fluctuations [35] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various agricultural products had different values. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans was 33 yuan/ton [33] - **Inter - commodity Ratios and Spreads**: The ratios such as soybean/corn and spreads such as soybean meal - rapeseed meal also changed during this period [33] 6. Stock Index Futures - **Base Price**: From May 12 - 16, 2025, the base prices of stock index futures including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 showed fluctuations. For example, the base price of CSI 300 changed from 37.61 on May 12 to 43.09 on May 16 [43] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of different stock index futures had different values. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was -40.6 [43]

3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：随着市场供应改善，豆粕期货价格表现相对坚挺，豆粕基差加速回归，市场情绪明显转弱。5 月下旬国内供应压力逐渐体现。饲料企业物理库存偏低局面并未明显改善，后期仍存补库需求，短期豆粕 库存低位小幅回升，累库幅度有限。短期豆粕期价反弹空间受限，震荡运行持续。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2509 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口到港 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管理 开拓进取 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 降息预期兑现，短期震荡整理为 主 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：上周五国债期货均小幅震荡回调。由于外部风险因素有所缓和，内部经济指标尚待验证政 策效果，4 月信贷数据线上企业与居民部门的信贷需求偏弱，短期内继 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 基本面弱稳运行，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格小幅回落，成交表现一般，且得益于需求回升，螺纹钢供需格局表现尚可， 但当前需求面临季节性走弱，而高供应下需求走弱则螺纹基本面矛盾将累积，钢价仍易承压运行， 相对利好则是库存低位，多空因素博弈下钢价走势延续低位震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成 ...

宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应维持高位，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦炭低位震荡 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：本周，焦煤产量、进口量均未见收缩，供应端压力居高不 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market presents a situation of strong reality and weak expectation, and the ore price continues to fluctuate. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2509 are respectively: short - term is fluctuating, medium - term is fluctuating, and intraday is weakly fluctuating. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line [1]. - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The high - level ore demand has slightly declined, providing some support for the ore price, but the concern of reaching the peak has materialized with a weak positive effect. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments remain high, and domestic ore production is also active, resulting in a large supply pressure. Supported by the logic of discount repair, the ore price has rebounded from the low level, but the demand is approaching the peak and the supply remains high, so the fundamental expectation is weakening [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Regarding iron ore 2509, the short - term trend within a week is fluctuating, the medium - term trend from two weeks to one month is fluctuating, and the intraday trend is weakly fluctuating. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is the situation of strong reality and weak expectation with the ore price continuing to fluctuate [1]. Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern has changed. The high - level demand has slightly declined, which still supports the ore price, but the concern of reaching the peak has been realized with a weak positive effect. The port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments are at a high level, and domestic ore production is also active, leading to large supply pressure. Supported by the discount repair logic, the ore price has rebounded from the low level. However, the demand is approaching the peak and the supply remains high, so the fundamental expectation is weakening, and the iron - water change should be monitored [2].