Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation on the weak side [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract slightly closed down 0.53% to 2,269 yuan/ton [5]. Core Logic - With the gradual digestion of macro - positive factors, there is a lack of fundamental support for the continued upward movement of methanol futures prices [5]. - Multiple domestic coal - to - methanol plants have restarted one after another, and the supply pressure has rebounded again, hitting a new weekly production high [5]. - The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and the profit of methanol - to - olefin futures has declined, which is not conducive to the continued reduction of port inventories [5]. - With the expected increase in external imports, the pressure on social inventory accumulation will increase in the future [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 铁矿石供需两端迎来变化，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石需求有所减量，当前降幅仍有限，给予矿价支撑， 但已然趋于触顶，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，港口到货延续回落，但海外矿商发运则是大幅增加，外 矿供应高位，相应的内矿生产依然积极，矿石供应压力偏大。目前来看，铁矿石需求趋于触顶，而供 应维持高位，供需格局在走弱，相对利好则是需求维持高位，且期价贴水较大，下行阻力存在，预计 矿价延续震荡运行态势，关注铁水变化情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is trading on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic due to increased imported soybean arrivals and rising oil - mill operating rates. Short - term soybean meal futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. - The international palm oil market is full of uncertainties. The short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and the overall oil market remains in a wide - range oscillation range. [5][7] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is weakly oscillating. - **Core Logic**: With more imported soybeans arriving and most oil mills' operating rates rising, the domestic market trades on the "weak reality, strong expectation" logic. The US soybean market is more sensitive to yield risks and trade - policy changes. The spread between domestic and foreign soybean futures has been gradually repaired, and short - term soybean futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [5] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: The short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are all weakly oscillating, and the reference view is also weakly oscillating. - **Core Logic**: The international oil market is full of uncertainties. The US soybean oil biodiesel demand is unclear, and Indonesia's export tax increase affects its export advantage, boosting Malaysia's palm oil exports. However, Malaysia's palm oil is in a stage of both increasing production and demand and cannot have an independent market. Rapeseed oil is the strongest among the three major oils and has some positive influence on palm oil. Overall, the oil market remains in a wide - range oscillation range, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on gold and nickel futures, suggesting a wait - and - see approach for both [1]. - For gold, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The main logic is that Sino - US relations are easing and there is an expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand [1][3]. - For nickel, the short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, and the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend. The core logic is that the upstream is strong while the downstream is weak, so nickel prices tend to move sideways [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Movement**: Last week, the overall gold price showed a downward trend. New York gold repeatedly bottomed out and rebounded after falling below $3200. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated above $3200, and the corresponding Shanghai gold oscillated above 755 yuan with a narrowing amplitude [3]. - **Driving Factors**: The decline in gold prices is due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which reduces the market's risk - aversion demand. The rebound is due to the recession expectation caused by the downward trend of the US economy. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating, which supported the gold price. The "signals" from the second and third - in - command of the Fed indicate that there may be no interest rate cuts before September, causing the US dollar to rebound and putting pressure on the gold price [3]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Short - term attention can be paid to the support level of $3200 [1][3]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Yesterday, the main nickel futures price oscillated weakly around 124,000 yuan. Last week, the nickel price twice hit a high of 126,000 yuan and then fell back, facing significant upward pressure [5]. - **Driving Factors**: The upstream ore end remains strong, providing support for the futures price. Nickel sulfate is stable, and the downstream stainless steel has stabilized and rebounded but lacks a continuous upward driving force [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term view is a decline, the medium - term view is a sideways movement, the intraday view is a sideways and weakening trend, and the reference view is to wait and see. Attention can be paid to the technical support level of 123,000 yuan [1][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of TL2506 are both oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that although the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, the upward momentum is insufficient due to factors such as the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April and the low possibility of immediate interest rate cuts, so it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2506, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is oscillatory and weak, with an overall view of range oscillation. The core logic is that the expectation of interest rate cuts has been fulfilled, and the short - term is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is range oscillation. The core logic is that the upward space of market interest rates is limited due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, so the downward space of treasury bond futures is also limited. However, due to factors such as the weakening of external risks, the need to verify the policy effects of internal economic indicators, and the weak credit demand of enterprises and residents in April, the possibility of immediate interest rate cuts is low, and the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, the upward and downward space of treasury bond futures is limited in the short term, and it is mainly in an oscillatory consolidation phase [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均探底回升，全天震荡整理。股市全市场成交额 11189 亿元，较上日缩量 52 亿元。昨日统计局公布了 4 月消费与固定资产投资数据，符合市场 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The power coal market is expected to remain at a low level in the near future due to the continuation of high supply and high inventory, along with a sluggish industrial chain atmosphere and strong wait - and - see sentiment [4] Summary by Related Content Price and Market Conditions - The intraday and mid - term view of power coal spot is "oscillation". The current supply - demand pattern of power coal has little change, with high production and stable imports [4] Driving Factors - Positive factor: The China - US trade friction has eased, which will delay the dragging effect of non - power industries on coal prices to some extent. The terminal products involved in the China - US trade mainly include electromechanical products, textiles and clothing, toys, plastic products, etc., which are related to non - power terminal industries such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and chemicals [4] - Negative factors: The coal safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, and power coal production remains at a high level. May is the off - season for thermal coal, and the daily coal consumption of power plants in coastal 8 provinces and inland 17 provinces is at a low level as of May 8. The market bearish sentiment spreads, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, leading to a large accumulation of power coal at ports [4]

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 需求预期走弱，钢价震荡寻底 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供应高位平稳运行，而需求虽有所回升，但存季节性走弱预期，而高供应下一旦需求走 弱则产业矛盾易积累，届时钢价继续承压运行，相对利好则是库存低位，多空因素博弈下预计钢价 走势延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 产量高位运行，焦煤维持弱势 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 市场氛围偏空，焦炭低位震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：统计局数据显示，4 月全国原煤产量 3.89 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of being weakly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract closed slightly lower by 1.16% to 14,850 yuan/ton [5]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the macro - factor has improved and boosted the confidence in the rubber market, the new rubber supply is increasing as the natural rubber producing areas at home and abroad enter the new tapping season. Meanwhile, the downstream tire industry's procurement demand is expected to increase as the operating rate returns to normal. With limited improvement in the supply - demand structure, it is expected that the domestic rubber futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Performance**: Last Friday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract closed slightly lower by 0.45% to 12,290 yuan/ton [7]. - **Driving Logic**: Although the Sino - US economic and trade relations have made substantial progress and the macro - factor has turned optimistic, the approaching US debt crisis in June may cause a new round of negative macro - impacts. Also, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the expected demand for crude oil is weak. With the weakening of cost factors, it is expected that the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2507 contract may maintain a weakly volatile trend on Monday [7].