交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货5980，基差447（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月 ...

沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、基本面：外盘下探之后反弹，20均线有支撑。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本 线坚挺。不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较 好，但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122050，基差1200，偏多 3、库存：LME库存215310，+1080，上交所仓单21739，-121，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格稳定，海运 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is characterized by a mismatch between supply and demand, with strong supply and weak demand, making it difficult to change the downward trend. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 70,320 - 73,440 [13][16]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include high - level supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [14][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [8]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 94,493 tons, a 0.91% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,832 tons, a 1.22% increase from the previous week [8]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,391 yuan/ton, a 1.23% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 592 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 79,330 yuan/ton, a 1.00% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 6,571 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Comprehensive evaluation**: The fundamentals are neutral; the basis on September 3rd showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,020 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is positive. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, and the inventory situation is neutral. The disk shows that MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20, which is neutral. The net short position of the main contract increased, which is negative [9][12][13]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.06% to 75,900 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.13% to 73,600 yuan/ton [19]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 66.41%, unchanged from the previous week. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The monthly import of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase from the previous month [22]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase from the previous month. The monthly production of ternary materials was 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease from the previous month [22]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium ore**: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore fluctuated. The inventory of lithium ore held by port traders and for sale also showed certain changes over time [28]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends. The monthly production and import of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a deficit in some months [33][39]. - **Lithium hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide changed over time. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different situations in different months [41][48]. 3.4 Cost - profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds (such as lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, etc.) showed different trends over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate was in a loss state [51]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventory) showed different trends. The overall inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average [9]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends. For example, the monthly production of power battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries changed over time [62]. - **Ternary precursor**: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors was positive in some months and negative in others [67][70]. - **Ternary materials**: The price, production, cost - profit, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends. The cost - profit of ternary materials fluctuated over time [73]. - **Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate**: The price, production, cost - profit, and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends. The production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate changed over time [77][80]. - **New energy vehicles**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends. The production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased slightly in some periods [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level has no positive factors, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is becoming prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may face downward pressure this week. Inland methanol prices are likely to decline in the short - term due to increased supply and reduced demand. Port methanol is expected to see continuous inventory accumulation, but the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase. The short - term driving force remains downward under the weak reality, and the price is expected to fluctuate. MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2340 - 2400 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - The macro - level has no positive factors, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is prominent. The domestic methanol price may decline under pressure this week. Inland: recent maintenance devices are few, multiple methanol devices restarted in late August, supply has increased significantly, while demand from Ningxia CTO plants has decreased, and large - scale events in early September have affected demand in the North China region. The reverse flow of low - priced port goods also suppresses the inland market. Port: Iranian shipments are concentrated, and inventory is expected to accumulate; as prices fall, the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may increase; the Indian price is rising, and attention should be paid to the re - export window. The macro - level is cooling, and the fundamentals are weak, with the short - term driving force downward. The price of MA2601 is expected to oscillate between 2340 - 2400 [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Liduo Factors**: Some devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); Iranian methanol production has decreased; port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; Northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Likong Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have restarted (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); port arrivals are expected to be concentrated in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season; MTBE production has declined significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2265 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 117, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2382 yuan/ton. The price of ring - Bohai thermal coal is 676 yuan/ton, CFR China main port is 259 US dollars/ton, and the import cost is 2282 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1066,000 tons, a significant increase of 131,800 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has increased by 84,400 tons to 691,300 tons [5]. - **Market Structure**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing [5]. - **Production Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit is 340 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol profit is - 40 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - based methanol profit is 496 yuan/ton [19]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have remained unchanged this week. The production profit of formaldehyde is - 185 yuan/ton, and the load is 25.42%; the production profit of dimethyl ether is 376 yuan/ton, and the load is 8.88%; the production profit of acetic acid is 61 yuan/ton, and the load is 82.42%; the production profit of MTO is - 510 yuan/ton, and the load is 79.84% [31][35][38][42][47]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Multiple domestic methanol production devices are in maintenance, shutdown, or reduced - load operation, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. [57]. - **Foreign Devices**: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of restarting, and devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, but some have low operating rates [58]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin devices are in maintenance, while others are operating stably. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are under maintenance, and Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin's devices are operating stably [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-04 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 近期要闻： 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面， 但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受反倾销初步裁定影 响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2580，基差59，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存2.1万吨，上周2.55万吨，周环比减少17.65%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减 少25%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日 ...

1. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate in August improved to a tight balance, with the supply - demand gap continuously narrowing. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of upstream supply is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [4][59]. 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Market Review and Logic Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Trend Review - The main lithium carbonate contract in August 2025 showed a bullish - then - bearish trend, opening at 69,080 yuan/ton on August 1st and closing at 77,180 yuan/ton on August 29th, with a monthly increase of 11.73%. High supply led to high inventory, and the subsequent production increase of downstream cathode material factories was lower than expected. The cost of the ore end was also supported. The import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile decreased, and the mica mining licenses in Yichun, Jiangxi were about to expire, which briefly drove the market up. Without obvious signs of demand recovery, the futures price may have some downward space. The basis showed a clear trend. After the shutdown of the Xianxiaowo Mine on August 9th, the basis weakened rapidly, indicating that the futures price rose much faster than the spot price. From the 20th, as the sentiment of funds to boost prices weakened, the spot price led the futures price again. If there is no supply - side disruption and demand remains weak, the spot price is expected to have a slight premium over the futures price, and the basis fluctuation range will narrow [5]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Side - **Production**: - **Ore End**: In August, the production of domestic spodumene and lepidolite still faced cost - profit inversion, but their production trends diverged. Lepidolite production was affected by the mining license issue in Jiangxi, with the total output in August being 13,980 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.74%. Spodumene production was 6,670 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.62%. The import of spodumene from Australia increased significantly in August, with an import volume of 576,138 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.73%. The price of spodumene and lepidolite continued to rise steadily. Lithium ore was in a state of slight supply shortage in August, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected that the supply - demand gap will continue to narrow in the second half of the year, and there is limited downward space for prices under the support of ore costs [7]. - **Lithium Compound End**: In July, the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, and the dependence on Chilean imports declined. In August, the domestic production of lithium carbonate was 8,5240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%. The production was mainly battery - grade. The output from spodumene and lepidolite increased steadily, the output from salt - lake lithium extraction increased slightly due to warmer weather, and the output from waste lithium - battery recycling decreased significantly due to cost - profit inversion. The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shifted from slight oversupply to slight shortage in August. It is expected that demand will recover in the second half of the year, and the supply - demand will remain in a tight - balance state. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide continued to increase, but the downstream demand was weak. The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern was obvious, and its price is expected to face downward pressure in the short term [13][14]. - **Cost - Profit**: The overall cost level of the ore end rebounded after reaching the bottom. The cost of enterprises producing lithium compounds from externally purchased spodumene was still high, mainly due to the ore cost. By the end of August, the cost of spodumene dropped to around 76,000 yuan/ton, and the processing cost rebounded slightly, with corresponding enterprises making small profits. The processing cost of lepidolite also rebounded, and the cost in late June recovered to around 80,000 yuan/ton, with corresponding enterprises in a continuous loss state. Salt - lake lithium extraction could still make a profit due to its low cost. The cost of waste - battery recycling remained stable, and the loss situation did not improve. Except for the salt - lake end, other production methods still had cost - profit inversion [24]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts in the exchange recovered rapidly after being cancelled at the end of July, and the current inventory is around 30,000 tons. Affected by the sharp price fluctuations of futures and spot in August, the downstream's willingness to take delivery was low, and the downstream inventory decreased. The upstream production enterprises also adjusted their production, and the overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased in August. For lithium hydroxide, the inventory of upstream and downstream decreased in August due to the reduction in supply, but the de - stocking rate is expected to remain low, and the price increase space may be limited [36]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - **Power/Energy - Storage Batteries**: The production of power batteries remained high and the price was stable under the background of high upstream supply and declining costs. The loading demand decreased in August due to weak terminal demand, and the support for upstream demand continued to weaken. The inventory of ternary power batteries increased slightly, and that of lithium - iron - phosphate power batteries remained basically unchanged. The inventory - sales ratio of power batteries showed a divergent trend in August. It is expected that the inventory de - stocking rate may decline to some extent in the second half of the year. The winning bid price and order volume of energy - storage batteries decreased in August, and the inventory - sales ratio was relatively low, with inventory pressure slightly higher than the same period in previous years. It is expected that demand will suppress the futures price in the short term [40]. - **Ternary Precursors/Materials**: In August, the prices and costs of ternary precursors and ternary materials rebounded, and the overall loss situation improved slightly but still remained in a loss state. As production increased slightly, the situation of supply surplus intensified. The 5 - series, 6 - series, and 8 - series materials still dominated. The supply - demand situation of ternary precursors improved limitedly under the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the inventory de - stocking amplitude was restricted [41]. - **Iron Phosphate/Lithium Iron Phosphate**: Since June 2024, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has continued to increase, but the operating rate has been low due to weak downstream demand. The production has been at a high level, and the prices of iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate have continued to weaken. The loss amplitude improved in August with the rebound of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices. The inventory remained stable, but considering the continuous high - level production, the subsequent production scheduling will still face pressure, and prices may be suppressed [50]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In July 2025, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,243,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1.97%, higher than the historical average. The sales volume was 1,262,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 5.04%, higher than the historical average. The export volume was 22,500 units, a month - on - month increase of 9.76%, higher than the historical average. The dealer inventory coefficient was 1.35, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0699, lower than the historical average, and the terminal inventory decreased, which supported the demand for lithium carbonate. The dealer inventory warning coefficient was 51.8, a month - on - month increase of 1.3, lower than the historical average. It is expected that demand will strengthen in August and September, and the inventory will decrease. Overall, the production of new energy vehicles decreased in July, demand remained stable, and the dealer inventory increased. It is expected that the inventory will increase again in August. The weak consumption growth of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year may have limited impact on the upstream power battery and lithium carbonate sectors [54]. 3.3 Third Part: Supply - Demand Pattern Analysis - **Supply Aspect**: The cost - profit inversion situation of the ore end has improved, while the continuous cost - profit inversion of the recycling end limits the production increase. It is expected to support the futures price in the short term [57]. - **Demand Aspect**: In August, the production scheduling of power batteries remained stable, but the growth was limited due to lower - than - expected downstream demand. The demand for new energy vehicles recovered weakly, and the increasing dealer inventory pressure limited the support for the futures price. The growth of energy - storage equipment was significant, but its inventory - sales ratio was in a state of decline, and it is expected to have limited support for downstream demand [58]. - **Summary**: The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate improved to a tight balance in August, and the supply - demand gap continued to narrow. It is expected to continue improving throughout the year, but the improvement will be limited. In the second half of the year, the upstream supply growth is likely to remain stable, downstream demand still has some growth potential, and the cost side, especially the ore end, has little room for further decline. After recent sharp price fluctuations, the futures price is expected to stabilize, remaining above previous highs and mainly adjusting through wide - range oscillations [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.02%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.0135万吨，环比增加0.57%,乙烯法企业产 量12.516万吨，环比减少8.34%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.6%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为42.6%，环比增加.95个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.61%，环比持平，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9万吨 ， | | 环比有所增加2 27% 。 . | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 ， | 环比增长3 80% . . | 需求有所抬升 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | | 硅库存为21 3万吨 ， . | | 处于低位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The refinery's recent production scheduling has been reduced, alleviating supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory levels remain unchanged. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3530 - 3570 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity was 31.3998%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.44 percentage points. The shipment volume of national sample enterprises was 263,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.17%. The sample enterprise output was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.37%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 682,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.25%. Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 29.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 17.1358%, a month - on - month increase of 0.15 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 28.33%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.86%, a month - on - month increase of 3.26 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily profit from asphalt processing was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly profit from delayed coking at Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The loss from asphalt processing increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the support will strengthen in the short - term [9]. - **Expected Outlook**: The refinery's recent production reduction has eased supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish. Inventory remains unchanged. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short - term. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3530 - 3570 [10]. - **Lido Factors**: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [13]. - **Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is intensifying [14]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 3, 2025, the spot price in Shandong was 3,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 10 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The evaluation is neutral [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%. Factory inventory was 674,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67%. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing, factory inventory has been continuously decreasing, and port inventory has been continuously increasing. The evaluation is neutral [11]. - **Futures Market**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20. The evaluation is bullish [11]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, with a decrease in long positions. The evaluation is bullish [11].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月4日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹，20均线有支撑。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚 挺。不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好， 但三元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122450，基差660，偏多 3、库存：LME库存214230，+3996，上交所仓单21860，-96，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 多空因素 影响因素总结 利多： 利空： 1、金九银十需求提振预 ...