Report Overview - The report is an early-morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel dated November 21, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Shanghai Nickel**: The overall view is bearish in the medium to long term, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak operation. The 2601 contract is expected to move weakly in a low - level range [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The overall view is neutral, with a short - term outlook of low - level, sideways, and weak pressure. The 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The external market is moving sideways at a low level. Nickel ore prices are firm, and the 2026 RKAB quota in Indonesia is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply. Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and stainless steel inventories are rising, showing an oversupply. Although short - term production may decline, the medium - to - long - term supply is strong, and inventories are continuously increasing. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 117,600, and the basis is 1,770, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 255,846 (-1,986), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 34,631 (-793), which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract will move weakly in a low - level range [2]. Stainless Steel Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices are firm, shipping costs are stable, nickel iron prices are falling, the cost line continues to decline, and stainless steel inventories have increased significantly. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,287.5, and the basis is 952.5, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 68,310 (-485), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Conclusion**: The Stainless Steel 2601 contract will be under pressure in a low - level range [4]. Price Overview - **Nickel**: On November 20, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was at 115,380 (-450), the LME nickel was at 14,455 (-185). Spot prices of various nickel products increased by 600 compared to the previous day [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel was at 12,285 (-50) on November 20, and the spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in various regions remained unchanged [11]. Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: As of November 14, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,573 tons, with the futures inventory at 35,027 tons, an increase of 3,386 tons and 2,393 tons respectively. On November 20, LME inventory was 254,172 (-1,674), and Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 34,079 (-552) [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On November 14, the inventory in Wuxi was 584,800 tons, in Foshan was 347,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1,071,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36,500 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 660,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,400 tons. On November 20, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 65,340 (-2,970) [18][19]. Price of Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - **Nickel Ore**: On November 20, the price of Ni1.5% red clay nickel ore CIF was 57 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of Ni0.9% red clay nickel ore CIF was 29 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. Shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [22]. - **Nickel Iron**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) wet tons was 894.5 yuan per nickel point (-2.5), and the price of low - nickel (below 2) wet tons was 3,200 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 12,536, the scrap steel production cost is 12,870, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,158 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 115,908 yuan per ton [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The external sugar price is weak, and the profit from importing sugar outside the quota is large, leading to a significant increase in imports in October. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures, 01, has recently set a new low. Considering the approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. After a short - term rapid decline, there may be a technical rebound, and it is advised to partially take profits on short - term short positions [4][5][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5730, and the basis for the 01 contract is 364, showing a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, considered neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: An increase in global sugar production, a supply surplus in the new season, a drop in the external sugar price to around 14 cents per pound, an open import profit window, and increased import impact [7]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. For example, ISO forecasts a supply surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX forecasts 277 million tons, Czarnikow raises the forecast to 740 million tons, and DATAGRO revises it down to 100 million tons [4][9]. - **China's Sugar Production and Sales**: In the 24/25 season, as of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1170 million tons, the import is 500 million tons, the consumption is 1570 million tons, and the surplus change is 82 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [37]. - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: At the end of October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the import cost outside the quota was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in the international sugar price, the import profit was considerable [43]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which affects the export of new US soybeans and puts pressure on prices. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a B50 plan expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global edible oil fundamentals. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Directory Daily Views - **Soybean Oil**: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. The futures price is below the 20-day moving average which is downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil increases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. The futures price is below the 20-day moving average which is downward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil increases. The basis indicates that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The futures price is above the 20-day moving average which is upward. The long positions of the main contract have increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US soybean inventory-to-sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. Supply - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: No specific data analysis provided, only an indication of the topic [6]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 1180000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: No specific data analysis other than historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [9][10]. - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: No specific data analysis other than historical trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [11][12]. - **Palm Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 580000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: On September 22, it was 560000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Rapeseed Inventory**: No specific data analysis other than historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [21][22]. - **Domestic Total Edible Oil Inventory**: Historical inventory trends from 2015 - 2019 are shown in the graph [23][24]. Demand - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [13][14]. - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Historical consumption trends from 2015 - 2025 are shown in the graph [15][16].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 黄金 1、基本面：美国9月非农新增就业人口11.9万大超预期，金价回落；美国三大股指 全线收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率 跌4.83个基点报4.085%；美元指数涨0.10%报100.22，离岸人民币对美元小幅升值报 7.1179；COMEX黄金期货跌0.15%报4076.7美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货932.56，现货930.2，基差-2.36，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. With high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory, the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals suggest an overall ample supply as alkali plants are at high production levels and Yuanxing's Phase II is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. Downstream float glass supply has disturbance expectations, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - The basis is -33 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2]. - The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][34]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - The short - term trend of soda ash is expected to be mainly volatile [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - **Likely Positives**: The supply of downstream glass has stabilized and rebounded from a low level, increasing the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Likely Negatives**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level for the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low - end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1182 | 1140 | - 42 | | Current Value | 1158 | 1125 | - 33 | | Change Rate | - 2.03% | - 1.32% | - 21.43% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamental Analysis - The profit of heavy soda ash production is at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process is - 103.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 232 yuan/ton [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 84.80%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.92 million tons, including 41.09 million tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant increase in new soda ash production capacity. The planned new capacity in 2023 is 640 million tons, 180 million tons in 2024, and 750 million tons in 2025, with 100 million tons actually put into production [21]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamental Analysis - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 100.93% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.91 million tons, and the operating rate is 75% [27]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamental Analysis The national soda ash plant inventory is 164.44 million tons, a decrease of 3.68% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply starts to increase; downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and tire production reaching a new high in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [4][23][26][29][32] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories (warehouse receipts) are seasonally cancelled, Qingdao area inventories have recently rebounded, and import volumes have declined [14][17][20] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on November 20th, and the US dollar quotation in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available [8] - **Basis**: The basis strengthened on November 20th, with the current spot price at 14,850 and a basis of - 400 [4][35] 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Bullish Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

Report Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%. The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances [2]. Industry Situation Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises have production reduction actions, and the scrap copper policy has been liberalized. In October, China's manufacturing production activities slowed down compared with the previous month, and the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.0%, showing a neutral situation [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 86410, the basis is 280, and the premium is on the futures, showing a neutral situation [2]. Inventory Analysis - On November 20, copper inventory increased by 50 to 157,925 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory decreased by 5,628 tons to 109,407 tons compared with the previous week, showing a neutral situation [2]. Disk Analysis - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is running downward, showing a bearish situation [2]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long position increases, showing a bullish situation [2]. Expectation - With inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances such as the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia, the copper price will fluctuate at a high level [2]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Other Information - The processing fee has declined, and the bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13][16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall zinc market shows a complex situation with a mix of bullish, neutral, and bearish factors. The short - term view suggests that the zinc market may experience a period of oscillatory consolidation, and the Shanghai zinc contract ZN2512 is expected to oscillate and decline [2][20] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In August 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1507 million tons, consumption was 1.1717 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 21,000 tons. From January to August 2025, production was 9.0885 million tons, consumption was 9.3698 million tons, with a supply shortage of 281,300 tons. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0696 million tons, and from January to August, it was 8.4457 million tons, indicating a bullish factor [2] - The basis with a spot price of 22,570 and a basis of +190 is also a bullish factor [2] 2. Market Data on November 20 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes - For the zinc futures on November 20, different delivery months showed various price changes. For example, the ZN2512 contract had a previous settlement of 22,410, an opening price of 22,455, a high of 22,495, a low of 22,380, and a closing price of 22,380, with a decline of 30 [3] Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes - The domestic spot market for zinc showed different prices in different regions. For 0 zinc, the price in Shanghai was 22,520 - 22,620 yuan/ton, in Guangdong was 22,270 - 22,370 yuan/ton, in Tianjin was 22,400 - 22,500 yuan/ton, and in Zhejiang was 22,440 - 22,540 yuan/ton [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 10 - 20, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main markets decreased from 162,000 tons on November 10 to 159,800 tons on November 20. Compared with November 13, it decreased by 13,000 tons, and compared with November 17, it decreased by 25,000 tons [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On November 20, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 46,075 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory warehouse receipts decreased by 1,646 tons to 73,668 tons [2][7] Zinc Concentrate Price Summary - On November 20, the prices of zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in different regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming were between 18,000 - 18,500 yuan/ton, and there was no price change [10] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter, Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan, and Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium all increased by 10 yuan/ton on November 20 [13] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in October 2025 - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87% and a year - on - year increase of 18.38%. The planned production for November is 522,300 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes - On November 20, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% grade in different regions were between 2,400 - 3,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% grade was 90 US dollars/thousand tons, with a decrease of 10 US dollars/thousand tons [17] Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the ZN2512 contract on November 20, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures, Dongzheng Futures, and Guotai Junan. In terms of long positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [18] 3. Short - term Market Outlook - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc oscillate and decline, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, with short positions reducing more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average, the short - term indicator KDJ is rising and operating in the weak zone, and the trend indicator is declining while the long - position strength is rising and the short - position strength is declining. The market may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and the ZN2512 contract is expected to oscillate and decline [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of aluminum are neutral due to carbon neutrality controlling capacity expansion, weak downstream demand, and continued weakness in the real estate market, along with short - term macro - mood volatility. The basis shows a neutral state with a slight premium. The inventory situation is neutral, while the price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - moving 20 - day moving average, and the net long position of the main force is decreasing but still long, indicating a bullish bias. In the long run, carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, and with improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to be strong [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion, downstream demand is not strong, the real estate market is weak, and short - term macro - sentiment is changeable; neutral [2]. - Basis: The spot price is 21570, the basis is 40, with a premium over the futures, neutral [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum inventory increased by 1564 tons to 114899 tons compared with last week; neutral [2]. - Price Trend: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward; bullish [2]. - Main Force Position: The main force has a net long position, and the long position is decreasing; bullish [2]. - Expectation: Carbon neutrality will drive changes in the aluminum industry, which is bullish for aluminum prices in the long term. With improved macro - sentiment, aluminum prices will be strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多Factors: Carbon neutrality controls capacity expansion; the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation affects Russian aluminum supply; interest rate cuts [3]. -利空Factors: The global economy is not optimistic, and high aluminum prices will suppress downstream consumption; the export tax rebate for aluminum products is cancelled [3]. - Logic: There is a game between interest rate cuts and weak demand [3]. Daily Summary - Spot Prices: The Shanghai spot price was 70770, down 375; the South China spot price was 70690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70870, down 400 [4]. - Inventory: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory was 74750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory increased by 29728 tons to 136300 tons [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2018 - 2024, the supply - demand balance of aluminum in China shows fluctuations. There were shortages in 2018 (-47.61 million tons), 2019 (-68.61 million tons), 2021 (-14.2 million tons), 2022 (-29.98 million tons), and 2023 (-4.31 million tons), while there was a surplus in 2020 (1.3 million tons) and 2024 (15 million tons) [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.51%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.355万吨，环比减少0.52%,乙烯法企业产 量13.491万吨，环比减少8.08%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.54%，环比减少0.06个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.96%，环比减少0.64个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.6%，环比增加.2个百分 点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...