1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be a crude steel production reduction policy, with trade war easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 817 with a basis of 40, and the spot price of Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 831 with a basis of 54, showing that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Port inventories are 14,388.02 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is a bearish factor [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - With the domestic demand decreasing and the plan of capacity reduction impacting the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Viewpoints - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production starts to decrease, supply arrival this month is lower, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories decrease, there will be a crude steel production reduction policy, and trade war eases, neutral [2]. - Basis: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to futures price is 817, basis 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian Blend spot converted to futures price is 831, basis 54, spot premium to futures, bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventory is 14,388.02 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, neutral [2]. - Disk: Price below 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average flat, bearish [2]. - Main Position: Net short position in the main iron ore contract, short positions increasing, bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand decreases, capacity reduction plan impacts the market, high - level fluctuation thinking [2]. 3.2. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories decrease [6]. - Import losses [6]. - Downstream steel prices rise, with strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. 3.3. Bearish Factors - Later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The copper market has a neutral to slightly bullish outlook. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to move in a range. The market is waiting for consumption guidance during the peak season in September. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing an improved business climate compared to the previous month, which is a neutral factor. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price is 80,520, with a basis of 410, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is neutral. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 3, copper inventories decreased by 200 to 158,575 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories decreased by 1,950 tons to 79,748 tons compared to the previous week, which is neutral. [2] - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish. [2] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish. [2] - **Expectation**: Inventories are rising, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The market is waiting for consumption guidance during the peak season in September. Currently, the long - short contradiction is not prominent, and copper prices will move in a range. [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Domestic policy easing is a positive factor, while the escalation of the trade war is a negative factor. [3] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. [20] - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a surplus of 0.11 million tons. [22] Inventory - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level. [14] Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined. [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：国内矿山受生产核查、矿端事故扰动影响，供应小幅收缩。炼焦煤市场震荡，部分矿点出 货不畅，有所累库，高价煤种开始回调，竞拍市场也成交乏力，线上竞拍流拍现象增多，且成交降价比 例增多，市场交易氛围有所转差；中性 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差-64；现货贴水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：焦炭价格走势暂不明朗，市场仍以观望为主，下游焦企对原料煤采 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass market is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short term due to weak fundamentals, with supply at a relatively low level but terminal demand remaining sluggish and inventory rebounding [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, industry cold repair has slowed, and the start - up rate and production have dropped to historical lows. Downstream deep - processing orders are less than in previous years, and real - estate terminal demand is weak [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, with a basis of - 79 yuan for FG2601 [2]. - National float glass enterprise inventory is 62.566 billion weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and it is above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - In summary, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: There is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Real - estate terminal demand is still weak, with deep - processing enterprise orders at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting original inventory. The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has rebounded. Therefore, the glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of glass futures increased by 0.09% to 1135 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton, and the main basis decreased by 1.28% to - 79 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, remained unchanged at 1056 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The glass production profit has declined [2]. - **Supply Side**: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.49%, at a historical low. The daily melting capacity is 159,600 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history but showing signs of stabilization and recovery [21][23]. - **Demand Side**: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the orders of deep - processing enterprises are at a historical low [27]. - **Inventory**: National float glass enterprise inventory is 62.566 billion weight boxes, a 1.64% decrease from the previous week, and it is above the 5 - year average [2][42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1175元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1276元/吨，基差为-101元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.75万吨，较前一周减少2.27%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report PTA - Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak with differentiation. Polyester factories' bids increased. The mainstream spot basis today is at 01 - 51. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, the spot market liquidity was okay, the spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of Hengli Huizhou's device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - The spot price is 4700, the 01 - contract basis is - 32, and the futures price is at a premium, which is neutral. The PTA factory inventory is 3.81 days, a 0.1 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. MEG - On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol (MEG) was consolidating at a low level, and the market negotiation was okay. The intraday MEG futures were weakly consolidating. The spot negotiation was traded at a premium of 86 - 92 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract merchants and suppliers participated in restocking, and the spot basis moderately strengthened at the end of the session. In terms of US dollars, the overseas MEG price was consolidating at a low level. The early - morning negotiation price for near - term shipments was around 524 - 525 US dollars/ton, and the afternoon negotiation price dropped to around 520 - 522 US dollars/ton. The 9 - end - of - September shipments were traded at around 519 - 523 US dollars/ton, and some financing merchants participated in inquiries [7]. - The spot price is 4434, the 01 - contract basis is 103, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish. The total inventory in East China is 40.63 tons, a 9.42 - ton decrease compared to the previous period, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The arrival volume in early September is still moderately low, and there is still some room for a moderate decline in ports in the short term. In terms of demand, it is expected that the average load in September can reach 91.5%. The rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the MEG futures have been under pressure. It is expected that the price of MEG will mainly consolidate within a range in the short term, with strong support at the bottom. Subsequent attention should be paid to device changes and polyester load changes [7][8]. Influencing Factors - Bullish factors: In August, some PTA devices were scheduled for maintenance, improving supply - demand expectations. As the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the market has shown some expectations for demand recovery. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 million - ton device had an unscheduled shutdown [11]. - Bearish factors: The profit margins of all links in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Previous Day's Review - No relevant content found. 2. Daily Tips - No relevant content found. 3. Today's Focus - No relevant content found. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity has been increasing. Supply and demand have shown certain fluctuations. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 9172 in September to 9472 in November. The supply - demand gap also changed accordingly, with a 1.6% gap in September 2025 and a - 22.1% gap in October [12]. MEG Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of MEG have also changed. The supply - demand relationship has also been adjusted. For example, in 2025, the total supply in September was 234, and the supply - demand gap was 2 [13]. Price - Related Data - There are data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, capacity utilization rates, and inventory. There are also data on PTA and MEG basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, such as the TA - EG spot spread and p - xylene processing margin [15][18][22][23][29][32][39]. Inventory Analysis - There are data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET chip factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms [41][42][43][46]. Upstream and Downstream Start - up Rates - There are data on the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester industry chain [52][56]. Profit - Related Data - There are data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods, and production margins of polyester fibers [61][62][65].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for 24/25 is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian canola in China has led to a rise in the canola sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil**: - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and supply will rise in the subsequent production season. - Basis: Spot price is 8438, basis is 72, indicating spot premium over futures. - Inventory: As of August 22, commercial inventory was 118 tons, a 2 - ton increase from the previous period and an 11.7% year - on - year increase. - Market: Futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. - Main Position: Long positions of the main contract increased. - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8150 - 8550. [2] - **Palm Oil**: - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and supply will increase in the future. - Basis: Spot price is 9492, basis is 124, showing spot premium over futures. - Inventory: As of August 22, port inventory was 58 tons, a 1 - ton increase from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease. - Market: Futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. - Main Position: Long positions of the main contract turned to short. - Expectation: The palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9150 - 9550. [3] - **Canola Oil**: - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral, and supply will increase later. - Basis: Spot price is 9843, basis is 116, meaning spot premium over futures. - Inventory: As of August 22, commercial inventory was 56 tons, a 1 - ton increase from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase. - Market: Futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. - Main Position: Short positions of the main contract increased. - Expectation: The canola oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. - **Empty**: Oils and fats prices are at relatively high historical levels, and domestic inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5] Supply - The report also presents data on the inventory of imported soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, palm oil, canola oil, rapeseed, and the total domestic inventory of oils and fats over the years from 2015 - 2025 through charts. It also shows the data of oil mill soybean crushing [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23]. Demand - The report provides data on the apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal from 2015 - 2025 through charts [13][15].

Report Title - Polyolefin Morning Report, dated September 4, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with cost support and anti - involution policies as positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main influencing factors are cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, and the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has slightly increased, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7230 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 17, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+23,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. The demand for agricultural films has recovered but is still weaker than in previous years. The industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 4, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+43,000 tons), showing a bearish trend [8] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract has decreased but is still long, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Positive Factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The international raw sugar is oscillating downward, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is following the weak trend. The domestic consumption peak season has passed, the low - price imported sugar in the market has increased significantly, and the spot price has declined. The futures main contract 01 has fallen below 5600, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The report does not contain relevant content. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton global sugar supply gap in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern 25/26 sugar production at 4.06 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous estimate. As of the end of July 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 9.5498 million tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 320,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price is 5990, with a basis of 428 (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of July, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.61 million tons [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract's position is bearish, with a net short position decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6]. - **Expected Factors**: Positive factors include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price below 17 cents per pound, and the opening of the import profit window, which increases import pressure [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus The report does not contain relevant content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. Green Pool predicts a 2.7 - million - ton surplus, USDA predicts a 11.397 - million - ton surplus, Czarnikow predicts a 7.8 - million - ton surplus, and Datagro predicts a 2.58 - million - ton surplus [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, and consumption is 15.9 million tons, with a balance change of 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. - **Imported Raw Sugar Processing Cost**: The cost of imported raw sugar processed and taxed (50% tariff) has been decreasing. In July 2025, with an ICE raw sugar average price of 16.35 cents per pound, the refined tax - included cost was 5600 - 5650 yuan per ton [44]. 3.5 Position Data The report does not contain relevant content.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22270，基差-15；中性。 3、库存：9月3日LME锌库存较上日减少375吨至55225吨，9月3日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1992吨至40947吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2510：震 荡盘整。 沪锌期货早报-20 ...