Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The slowdown in US ADP employment growth has led to a softening of the US job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, but the domestic risk appetite has significantly cooled, causing gold prices to fluctuate and close lower. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge, and gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - The weakening of domestic risk preference has caused silver prices to decline. However, the slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market have increased expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.91% to $3602.40 per ounce. The gold basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3003 kilograms to 43254 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The US ADP employment growth slowed significantly, risk preference declined, and silver prices fell. US stocks closed higher, European stocks had mixed results, US bond yields fell, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures fell 1.77% to $41.32 per ounce. The silver basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 11811 kilograms to 1227039 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The expected factors include US non - farm payrolls, the final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP, speeches by Fed members, and China's August foreign exchange reserves on Sunday. The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and other data indicate a softening job market, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The premium of Shanghai gold continues to converge. Gold prices remain relatively strong due to concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve approaching the September meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The slowdown in US ADP employment growth and the softening of the job market increase expectations of interest rate cuts, providing support for silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan per kilogram. Silver prices remain relatively strong following gold prices [6]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:00: Speech by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (2025 FOMC voter) [15]. - Time TBD: 2025 World Intelligent Industry Expo from September 5 - 8 [15]. - 14:00: UK retail sales for July [15]. - 17:00: Final value of the Eurozone's Q2 GDP [15]. - 20:30: US August non - farm payroll report (including employment population, unemployment rate, average hourly wage) and Canada's August employment report [15]. - Sunday: China's August foreign exchange reserves and an OPEC + meeting of eight oil - producing countries on oil production policies [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.38, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 43254 kilograms, an increase of 3003 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 4, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1227039 kilograms, a daily increase of 11811 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the main long positions increased [5]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, but the main long positions decreased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is at a moderate level, while agricultural demand is limited. Although the export profit is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is strong, and the urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined after a previous increase due to rumors of export liberalization. Current daily production and operating rates are still high, and inventory is at a high level overall. The domestic urea market remains in a significant oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price, non - over - expected export policy liberalization, and a significant domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1780 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1790 (0), and the FOB China price is 3031 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1714 (0), the basis is 66 (-10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1753 (-4), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1664 (6) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7928 (723), the UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), the UR manufacturer inventory is 85.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.3 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also generally shown an upward trend, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量下滑，终端 需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1277元/吨，基差为-87元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存182.21万吨，较前一周减少2.43%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, specifically the ZN2510 contract [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons [2]. - The basis is -120 with the spot price at 22,000, indicating a bearish signal [2]. 3.2 Inventory - On September 4, LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 51 tons to 40,896 tons [2]. - The total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased to 138,500 tons on September 4 from 129,800 tons on August 28 and 133,300 tons on September 1 [5]. 3.3 Futures Market - On September 4, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts was 268,174 lots, and the turnover was 2.96865421 billion yuan. The open interest was 232,424 lots, an increase of 18,399 lots [3]. - For the SHFE zinc contract zn2510, the top three in trading volume were CITIC Futures (53,788 lots, an increase of 19,193 lots), Guotai Junan (46,574 lots, an increase of 7,019 lots), and Dongzheng Futures (42,339 lots, an increase of 15,916 lots). The top three in long positions were Dongzheng Futures (7,592 lots, an increase of 804 lots), Jianxin Futures (7,235 lots, an increase of 189 lots), and CITIC Futures (6,725 lots, a decrease of 1,684 lots). The top three in short positions were CITIC Futures (15,482 lots, a decrease of 162 lots), Dongzheng Futures (11,141 lots, an increase of 4,007 lots), and Guotai Junan (8,842 lots, an increase of 1,567 lots) [17]. 3.4 Spot Market - On September 4, the prices of various zinc - related products in the domestic spot market declined. For example, zinc concentrate in Lin decreased by 220 yuan/ton to 16,640 yuan/ton, and zinc ingots in Aoshi decreased by 270 yuan/ton to 22,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The prices of zinc ingots from different smelters also decreased by 270 yuan/ton. For instance, the price of 0 zinc ingots from Mingnan Zhouting was 22,240 yuan/ton, and that from Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan was 21,970 yuan/ton [12]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a fluctuating downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward [2]. - Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing the support of the moving average. The short - term indicator KDJ declined and entered the weak area. The trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased, the short - side strength increased, and the short - side dominance expanded [19].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 5, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are neutral, with both positive and negative factors present. The main influencing factors include cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][7][8] Summary by Content LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being formulated, expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has increased slightly, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. Other packaging films have seen increased demand due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,200 yuan (- 30 yuan), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 25, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.3%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (+ 23,000 tons), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. Although the demand for agricultural film is recovering, it is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; bearish factors include weak demand [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. New PP production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand in industries such as pipes and plastic weaving has improved as the peak season approaches. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,900 yuan (- 50 yuan), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 39, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.6%, bearish [8] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 582,000 tons (+ 43,000 tons), bearish [8] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [8] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the PP main contract is increasing, bullish [8] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. There is new production capacity, downstream demand has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral [8] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and anti - involution policies; bearish factors include weak demand [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of delivery products is 7,200 yuan (- 30 yuan), the price of the 01 contract is 7,225 yuan (- 22 yuan), the basis is - 25 (- 8), the warehouse receipt is 8,263 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 509,000 tons (+ 23,000 tons), and the PE social inventory is 561,000 tons (- 2,000 tons) [11] - **PP**: The current spot price of delivery products is 6,900 yuan (- 50 yuan), the price of the 01 contract is 6,939 yuan (- 15 yuan), the basis is - 39 (- 35), the warehouse receipt is 13,795 (- 7), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 582,000 tons (+ 43,000 tons), and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons (+ 26,000 tons) [11] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 影响因素总结 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-5 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修放缓，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1056元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1139元/吨，基差为-83元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6305万重量箱，较前一周增加0.77%，库存在5年均值上方运行； 偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： 1、地产终端需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed down yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved slightly, with increased buying from polyester factories, but the basis continued to weaken. The PTA device maintenance effect was less than expected, and the spot market liquidity was fair. The spot basis weakened, and the price fluctuated following the cost side. Although the processing margin improved slightly from the low point, it remained at a relatively low level. Attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of the Hengli Huizhou device and subsequent upstream and downstream device changes [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price increased and then slightly adjusted, with active market transactions. The coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. The ethylene glycol futures rose and then slightly pulled back in the morning, and the buying in the market moderately followed up. In the afternoon, the basis of near - term goods continued to strengthen. It is expected that the arrival volume in early September will still be moderately low, and there is still room for a moderate decline in the port in the short term. From the demand perspective, it is expected that the average load in September can reach the 91.5% level, and the rigid demand support is gradually improving. Recently, the commodity market has corrected, and the ethylene glycol futures are under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price will be mainly range - bound, with strong support below. Subsequent attention should be paid to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1.前日回顾 No information provided in the content. 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: Futures fluctuated down, spot negotiation improved, basis weakened. 9 - lower transactions were concentrated, with prices around 4600 - 4640. The current mainstream spot basis is 01 - 57 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4615, 01 - contract basis is - 41, with the futures at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.9 days, a 0.09 - day increase compared to the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main force position**: Net short position, short position increasing [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to Hengli Huizhou device maintenance and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: Price increased and then adjusted, market transactions were active. Coal - chemical device maintenance was implemented. Near - term basis strengthened. Foreign market was weak. Short - term arrival volume is moderately low, and port inventory may decline. Demand load is expected to reach 91.5% in September [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 4456, 01 - contract basis is 99, with the futures at a discount [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.03 tons, a 2.6 - ton decrease compared to the previous period [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main force position**: Main force net short position, short position increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Price range - bound, with strong support below. Pay attention to device and polyester load changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 No information provided in the content. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, production, demand, inventory, and other data [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and other data [12]. 3.5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Positive Factors** - Some PTA device maintenance plans in August improved the supply - demand expectation [10]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market has some expectations for demand recovery [10]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device stopped for maintenance, and Hengli Huizhou's 2.5 - million - ton device had an unplanned shutdown [10]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [9]. 3.6. Current Main Logic and Risk Points The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the resistance level above should be watched for the market rebound [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand of iron ore are loose, with a decrease in port inventory. The market is expected to introduce crude steel production reduction policies, and the trade war has eased. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans [2]. - The iron ore market presents a neutral situation in terms of fundamentals, a bullish situation in terms of basis and price trend on the disk, and a bearish situation in terms of the main positions. The market is also affected by both positive and negative factors [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' molten iron production has started to decrease, and the arrival volume this month has decreased. The overall supply - demand is loose, port inventory has decreased, and there are plans for crude steel production reduction and trade - war easing, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Basis**: The spot - equivalent prices of PB powder and Brazilian blend in Rizhao Port have positive basis, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 14388.02 tons, showing a decrease both month - on - month and year - on - year, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions of iron ore are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With reduced domestic demand and the impact of capacity - reduction plans, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Positive Factors - Molten iron production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventory has decreased [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products has risen, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - The later shipping volume will increase [6]. - The terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk factor is the El Nino weather [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase. It is rated as neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,428, with a basis of 72, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. It is rated as bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main soybean oil contract has increased. It is rated as bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,550 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,400, with a basis of 10, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [3]. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main palm oil contract has turned to short. It is rated as bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,150 - 9,550 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil is expected to increase in the future. It is rated as neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,858, with a basis of 119, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. It is rated as bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main rapeseed oil contract has increased. It is rated as bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the short - term price is expected to remain stable. Although coking enterprises' profit is good and production will increase after the parade, the steel market is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious [3]. - For coke, the short - term price is also expected to remain stable. With the end of the parade and relaxed environmental policies, coke supply will increase, but downstream demand is cautious due to weak steel prices [8]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some mines in major producing areas have resumed production, increasing output. Market sentiment has weakened, with less new orders and inventory piling up. However, coking enterprises' profit is good, and production will gradually increase after the parade. The steel market is weak, and downstream procurement is cautious [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1170, and the basis is - 75.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week, which is positive [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is negative [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron output and limited supply increase [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Slowed procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: The price of coking coal has weakened, reducing the cost of coking enterprises. After the parade, environmental policies have relaxed, and coke supply is expected to increase [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1570, and the basis is - 11.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week, which is positive [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, which is negative [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [8]. - **Expectation**: The short - term price is expected to remain stable [8]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron output and increasing blast furnace operating rate [10]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit space of steel mills and over - drawn replenishment demand [10]. Price - **Imported Coking Coal**: On September 4, 2025, at 17:30, the prices and price changes of various imported coking coals at different ports are provided [11]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On September 4, 2025, at 17:30, the prices and price changes of port metallurgical coke are provided [12]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [27]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [32]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 74.48% [45]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants is 25 yuan [49].