2025-08-13甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：国内甲醇市场预期区域性差异明显，需关注内地与港口套利是否开启。内地方面，近前期停车甲醇装置集 中恢复，内地供应增加，但内地企业低库存基础之上，叠加西北CTO企业仍有外采需求，供需紧平衡的格局延续。但同 时传统需求淡季，不利于成本传导，对行情有一定限制，预计本周内地震荡偏强运行。而港口供需矛盾预期明显，伊朗 装船发运较为集中且港口大型烯烃装置停车，预期累库将持续，当下驱动逻辑回归基本面供需，短期焦煤和焦炭在政策 及核查等因素影响下，市场炒作情绪较重，甲醇期货盘面存在一定支撑，但上行乏力，预计本周华东甲醇市场处于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The glass fundamentals remain weak, and it is expected to mainly trade in a volatile range in the short term due to the return of the "anti-involution" sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract rose from 1219 yuan/ton to 1240 yuan/ton, a 1.72% increase. The spot price of Shahe safety large - size glass remained unchanged at 1104 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from -115 yuan/ton to -136 yuan/ton, a 18.26% change [6]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1104 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [12]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No detailed content on cost side other than mentioning glass production profit, but no specific data presented. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 223, with an operating rate of 75.19%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 159,600 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level for the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23][25]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The terminal real - estate demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting the inventory of raw glass [29][4]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.847 million weight boxes, a 3.95% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and other indicators. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, and the surplus was 1.51 million tons [43]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand, low orders from deep - processing enterprises, poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry, cautious attitudes of traders and processors, and the fading of the "anti - involution" market sentiment [4]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, and downstream has carried out phased replenishment, resulting in a reduction in glass factory inventory. However, the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable, and it is expected that glass will mainly trade in a wide - range volatile manner [5].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 2、基差：现货79120，基差100，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：8月12日铜库存减700至155000吨，上期所铜库存较上周增9390吨至81933吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿端增 ...

PTA&MEG早报-2025年8月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货偏强震荡，现货市场商谈氛围一般，个别聚酯工厂递盘，现货基差区间波动。个别主流供应商有出货。 8月货在09贴水10~15附近成交，价格商谈区间在4680~4730附近。9月中个别在09+5有成交。今日主流现货基差在09-13。中性 6、预期：持续低加工差下，近期PTA装置变动增多，但价格上，成本端缺乏支撑且下游聚酯淡季需求一般，预计短期内PTA现货 价格震荡运行为主，现货基差企稳。关注后续PTA装置及下游聚酯负荷变动。 2、基差：现货4705，09合约基差-21，盘面贴水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The current demand may remain weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4991 - 5103. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [7][8][9]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply side**: In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. The weekly sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.46%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 336,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.55%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 139,810 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.48%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a significant increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 42.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.800 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.91%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.86 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream films was 76.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the operating rate of downstream paste resin was 74.54%, a month - on - month increase of 0.720 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - **Cost side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 252.2756 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 104.00%, lower than the historical average; the profit of ethylene method was - 488.965 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 2.00%, lower than the historical average; the double - ton price difference was 2683.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in profit of 1.10%, higher than the historical average, and the scheduled production may increase [8]. - **Other aspects**: On August 12, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 243 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Factory inventory was 337,163 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.36%, with calcium carbide factory inventory at 259,778 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.49%, and ethylene factory inventory at 77,385 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.62%. Social inventory was 480,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.32%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.44%. The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. The net position of the main force was short, and the short position decreased [8][10]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview The report presents the changes in yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different contract prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, with detailed data on changes and growth rates [15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend No analysis content provided, only a chart showing the basis trend over time. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread No analysis content provided, only a chart showing the spread trend of the main contract over time. 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lancoke**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke over the years [27]. - **Calcium carbide**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide over the years [30]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt over the years [32]. - **Caustic soda**: Illustrates the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and double - ton price difference trends of caustic soda over the years [34][37]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend Shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production trends of calcium carbide and ethylene methods for PVC over the years [38][41]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Presents the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC over the years [43][47]. - Displays the cost, profit, and monthly production trends of paste resin over the years [49]. - Shows the real - estate investment completion amount, cumulative housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area over the years [54]. - Illustrates the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends over the years [57]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory Presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days over the years [59]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method Shows the import volume of vinyl chloride, dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB price difference (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import price difference (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) trends over the years [61]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Displays the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC in 2024 and 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data [64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-13 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕冲击涨停板，加拿大油菜籽反倾销初步裁定并加收保证金刺激资金买盘。菜 粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面。但进口油菜籽到港量8月小幅增多但 油厂库存短期无压力，盘面短期受反倾销影响大幅上涨。偏多 2.基差：现货2640，基差78，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存3.2万吨，上周2.7万吨，周环比增加18.52%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比增 加14.29%。偏空 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力空单增加，资金流出，偏空 6.预期：菜粕短期受加拿 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the sugar industry. 2. Core View - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions having varying predictions, such as StoneX forecasting a surplus of 304 tons after a 70 - ton downward adjustment [4][8]. - In the domestic market, consumption is good, inventory is decreasing, and the tariff on syrup has increased. The change in the US cola formula to use sucrose is also a positive factor. However, the global increase in sugar production, the expected supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to low international sugar prices are negative factors [6]. - Concerns about a decline in Brazilian production led to a short - term rebound in international sugar prices at night, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) followed the rebound. The August China sugar supply - demand balance sheet from the Ministry of Agriculture is the same as last month's forecast, and the 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in the range of 5600 - 5700 in the short term [5][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review The document does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: StoneX predicts a 70 - ton downward adjustment in the global sugar supply surplus to 304 tons in the 25/26 season. As of the end of May 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 811.38 tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In June 2025, China imported 42 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 39 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.57 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.32 tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6010, and the basis for the 01 contract is 402, indicating a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 304.83 tons [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear [5]. - **Expectation**: Concerns about a decline in Brazilian production led to a short - term rebound in international sugar prices at night, and the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar (01) followed the rebound. The August China sugar supply - demand balance sheet from the Ministry of Agriculture is the same as last month's forecast, and the 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to trade in the range of 5600 - 5700 in the short term [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus The document does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. Green Pool predicts a surplus of 270 tons, USDA predicts a surplus of 1139.7 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 780 tons, and Datagro predicts a surplus of 258 tons [35]. - **China Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugar - producing area, yield, import, consumption, and other indicators in the 2024/25, 2023/24, and 2025/26 seasons are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season (August forecast), the sugar production is expected to be 1120 tons, import is 500 tons, and consumption is 1590 tons [37]. - **Import Cost**: The refined duty - paid cost of imported raw sugar processed with a 50% tariff from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, showing the impact of different market events on costs [42]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not contain content related to position data.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has not fully recovered as coal mines in production areas are experiencing a mix of shutdowns and restarts. The market is in a state where prices are fluctuating, with some over - inflated coal prices dropping. The overall haulage is fair, and coal mines have relatively low inventory pressure. With high - level iron ore production providing strong support for raw material demand, but considering the game between steel and coke after the sixth round of coke price increases and cautious purchasing by steel and coking enterprises for high - priced coal, the short - term price of coking coal is expected to be on the strong side [2]. - **For Coke**: The cost pressure on coking enterprises has eased as raw coal prices have declined, but the overall capacity release remains limited. Due to the military parade, Shandong coking plants have received oral notices for environmental production restrictions of 30 - 50%, further constraining coke supply. With stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price of coke is expected to be stable and on the strong side [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Supply has not fully recovered, prices are fluctuating, and the overall haulage is good with low inventory pressure at coal mines; bullish [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1200, basis is - 113, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 1902.8 million tons, an increase of 45.9 million tons from last week; bearish [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: With high - level iron ore production, raw material demand is strongly supported. However, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there is a game between steel and coke, and purchasing of high - priced coal is cautious. Short - term price is expected to be strong [2]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Cost pressure has eased, but capacity release is limited. Shandong coking plants are facing production restrictions, further constraining supply; bullish [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 1630, basis is - 182, indicating spot discount to futures; bearish [5]. - **Inventory**: Total sample inventory is 839.7 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from last week; bullish [5]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: With tightening supply and stable demand from steel mills, the short - term price is expected to be stable and strong [5]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Bearish Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by steel and coking enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Bullish Factors**: Increase in iron ore production and rising blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Squeezed profit margins in steel mills and pre - empted restocking demand [7]. **Inventory Data** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [24]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton Morning Report - August 13, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Mingwei from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The 01 contract of cotton may fluctuate around 14,000. The overall situation is affected by multiple factors, with a neutral - to - slightly bullish bias in some aspects but also facing bearish factors [4]. - The fundamental situation of cotton shows a balance between supply and demand. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No specific information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to ICAC's August report, the 2025/26 cotton production is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. USDA's July report shows a production of 25.783 million tons, consumption of 25.718 million tons, and an ending inventory of 16.835 million tons in 2025/26. In July, textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In June, China imported 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast shows a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,177 yuan, with a basis of 1,197 yuan (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's July 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.23 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectations**: Sino - US trade negotiations are postponed, lower than market expectations. July's textile export data is not ideal. It is currently the consumption off - season, and the "Golden September and Silver October" market is unclear [4]. 3. Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Reduced previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Postponed trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, consumption off - season, overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply - Demand Balance (USDA)**: In 2025/26 (July forecast), global cotton production is 25.783 million tons, consumption is 25.718 million tons, and ending inventory is 16.835 million tons. Different countries have different production, consumption, import, and export trends [9][10]. - **Global Supply - Demand Balance (ICAC)**: In 2025/26, global production is 25.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 400,000 tons or 1.6%), consumption is 25.6 million tons (basically flat), ending inventory is 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 260,000 tons or 1.6%), global trade volume is 9.7 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons or 3.9%), and the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **China's Supply - Demand Balance (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/26, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [13]. 5. Position Data - No specific position data information provided other than the general description of the main position being bullish with a decreasing net long position [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The overall situation shows a complex mix of factors, with a medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remaining unchanged [3][4]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **沪镍 Daily View** - **基本面**: The external market first declined and then rebounded, with support at the 20 - day moving average. Last week, there was an arrival of Norwegian nickel slabs, increasing supply. The nickel ore price is stable, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, and the cost line has stabilized and rebounded slightly. The stainless steel inventory has decreased slightly. The new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the proportion of ternary battery installations has decreased. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged, which is bearish [4]. - **基差**: The spot price is 123,500, and the basis is 1,060, which is bullish [4]. - **库存**: The LME inventory is 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,693 (a decrease of 30), which is bearish [4]. - **盘面**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **主力持仓**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. **不锈钢 Daily View** - **基本面**: The spot stainless steel price has increased. In the short term, the nickel ore price is stable, the ocean freight has decreased slightly, the ferronickel price is rising steadily, the cost line has increased slightly, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased. The situation is neutral [5]. - **基差**: The average stainless steel price is 13,887.5, and the basis is 687.5, which is bullish [5]. - **库存**: The futures warehouse receipts are 103,940 (an increase of 904), which is bearish [5]. - **盘面**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [5]. - **结论**: The stainless steel 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [5]. **多空因素 - 影响因素总结** - **利多因素**: There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" period and anti - involution policies [8]. - **利空因素**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new growth points in demand, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The nickel ore price is weakly stable, the ferronickel price is weakly stable, and the cost line is still at a low level. The substitution ratio of ternary batteries is increasing [8]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** - **期货 prices**: On August 12, the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,440 (an increase of 310 compared to August 11), the LME nickel was 15,360 (an increase of 35), and the stainless steel main contract was 13,200 (a decrease of 25). - **现货 prices**: The SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,500 (an increase of 650), and the average price of stainless steel was 13,887.5 [13][5]. **镍仓单、库存** - **镍库存**: As of August 8, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons, with the futures inventory at 20,621 tons. On August 12, the LME inventory was 211,746 (an increase of 450), and the Shanghai Stock Exchange warehouse receipts were 20,693 (a decrease of 30) [15][16]. **不锈钢仓单、库存** - **不锈钢库存**: On August 8, the Wuxi inventory was 61,620 tons, the Foshan inventory was 330,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,106,300 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons month - on - month. On August 12, the stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 103,940 (an increase of 904) [19][20]. **镍矿、镍铁价格** - **镍矿价格**: The CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% is 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% is 29 US dollars per wet ton, both remaining unchanged from August 11. - **镍铁价格**: The high - nickel ferronickel price is 921.5 yuan per nickel point (an increase of 2.5), and the low - nickel ferronickel price is 3,420 yuan per ton (an increase of 20) [23]. **不锈钢生产成本** - The traditional cost is 12,919, the scrap steel production cost is 13,699, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,510 [25]. **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 124,122 yuan per ton [28].