Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, due to optimistic Sino - US consultations and US CPI being lower than expected, the gold price continued to decline. The trade optimistic expectation returned, increasing the downward pressure on the gold price. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to - 0.3 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, with the Sino - US trade negotiation progressing optimistically and CPI being weaker than expected, the silver price declined. The premium of Shanghai silver slightly expanded to 290 yuan/gram, and the domestic sentiment remained strong. The trade optimistic expectation returned, strengthening the downward pressure on the silver price [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: COMEX gold futures fell 0.45% to $4126.90 per ounce. The US three major stock indexes rose across the board, most European major stock indexes rose, US Treasury yields rose collectively, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 5.35 basis points to 4.001%, the US dollar index was flat at 98.94, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1262 [4]. - Silver: COMEX silver futures fell 0.60% to $48.41 per ounce. The market situation was similar to that of gold in terms of stock indexes, Treasury yields, and exchange rates [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 1.07, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants was 87015 kg, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position decreased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 21, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants was 664971 kg, with a daily increase of 1605 kg; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - All - day: The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th, and the heads of the central bank, the banking and insurance regulatory commission, and the securities regulatory commission will give keynote speeches; US President Trump will visit Japan until October 29th. - 09:15: China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for September. - 16:15: RBA Governor Bullock will participate in a fireside chat. - 17:00: Germany's October IFO business climate index and the eurozone's September money supply M3. - TBD: A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. - 20:30: US durable goods orders for September. - 22:30: US October Dallas Fed business activity index [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the gold price was difficult to fall. The verification between the new US government's policy expectation and the reality will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high and still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - Silver: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly followed the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1,690 to 169,611, a decrease of 0.99%; the short - position volume decreased by 1,057 to 66,178, a decrease of 1.57%; the net position decreased by 633 to 103,433, a decrease of 0.61% [30]. - Silver: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 7,473 to 353,609, a decrease of 2.07%; the short - position volume decreased by 4,217 to 265,839, a decrease of 1.56%; the net position decreased by 3,256 to 87,770, a decrease of 3.58% [33].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The domestic urea market remains oversupplied, but the short - term market is expected to warm up. The UR is predicted to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. 3. Key Points by Section Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are starting to decline from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather, while industrial demand is significantly weak. The export volume has increased with a large but narrowing price difference between domestic and international markets. The overall domestic urea supply still exceeds demand, but the short - term market is expected to improve. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 72, with a premium/discount ratio of - 4.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 201,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract's price has rebounded. Industrial demand is weak, agricultural demand is rising, international urea prices are strong, and the export volume has increased. Although the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand, the short - term price is expected to warm up, and the UR is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend today [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Strong international prices, increasing exports, and short - term decline in daily production [5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Domestic supply exceeding demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1570, with a change of +20; Shandong spot price is 1570, with a change of +20; Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; FOB China price is 2742 [6]. | | **Futures** | The price of the 01 contract is 1642, with a change of +4; the basis is - 72, with a change of +16; UR05 price is 1719, with a change of +9; UR09 price is 1748, with a change of +8 [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 5407, with a change of - 77; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.84 million tons (- 221,000 tons); UR manufacturer inventory is 1.63 million tons (+15,000 tons); UR port inventory is 210,000 tons (- 236,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-27投资咨询部 分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8380，基差186，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：9月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力多减。偏多 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8400附近区间震荡 每日观点 近期利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply has bottomed out and is rising, but there are many supply-side disturbances. The downstream deep-processing orders are weak, and the real estate terminal demand is sluggish. The inventory is increasing, and the price is running below the 20-day line. The main position is net short, and the shorts are increasing. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1092 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.44% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards was 1052 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value. The main basis was -40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.57% from the previous value. [7] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1052 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [12] Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - No specific content provided Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines nationwide was 226, with an operating rate of 76.35%. The daily melting volume of float glass nationwide was 161,300 tons, and the production capacity was at the lowest level in the same period in history and was stabilizing and rebounding. [23][25] Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons. The real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The deep-processing industry's capital collection is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory. [29][5] Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 66.613 million weight boxes, an increase of 3.64% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five-year average. [44] Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. [45] Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal-to-gas" conversion, increasing supply-side disturbances. [4] - **Negative Factors**: The real estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The deep-processing industry's capital collection is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory. [5] Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Recently, there have been more supply-side disturbances, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass will mainly fluctuate. [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-27 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃供 给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1180元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1229元/吨，基差为-49元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.21万吨，较前一周增加0.09%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、浮法玻璃日熔量企稳。 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 主力基差 利空： 主要逻辑和风险 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bond market is generally weak, with most yields of inter - bank market bonds rising, and long - term bonds performing poorly. The bond market is expected to fluctuate for some time, and its performance depends on the stock market, Sino - US talks, and the implementation of new regulations on fund redemptions [3]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the central bank continued to increase the volume of MLF for the 8th consecutive month. Although the manufacturing PMI in September improved, it was still below the boom - bust line. The CPI in September increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, while the core CPI's year - on - year increase expanded for the 5th consecutive month. The new social financing in September was slightly lower than the seasonal level, and the M2 growth rate expanded due to the "migration of RMB deposits". The LPR remained unchanged as expected [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all declined. The 30 - year main contract fell 0.25%, the 10 - year main contract (T2512.CFE) dropped 0.06% to 108.005, the 5 - year main contract (TF2512.CFE) decreased 0.05% to 105.615, and the 2 - year main contract (TS2512.CFE) fell 0.01% to 102.332 [3][7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The inter - bank market's funds remained balanced and stable, with the overnight repurchase rate of deposit - taking institutions stable at around 1.32%. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is favorable for the stock market, but there are few direct economic stimulus policies, so the pressure on bonds is not significant [3]. - On October 27, the central bank conducted 900 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. Since 700 billion yuan of MLF matured in October, the net MLF investment this month reached 200 billion yuan, marking the 8th consecutive month of increased MLF operations [3]. 3.3 Basis Analysis - The basis of the TS main contract is 0.0123, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The basis of the TF main contract is - 0.0168, meaning the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The basis of the T main contract is 0.0235, and the basis of the TL main contract is 0.2081, both showing that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which are bullish [3]. 3.4 Inventory Analysis - The balances of deliverable bonds for the TS, TF, and T main contracts are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively, which is neutral [3]. 3.5 Technical Analysis - The TS, TF, and T main contracts are all trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. 3.6 Position Analysis - The net position of the TS main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the TF main contract is long, and the long position is increasing. The net position of the T main contract is long, but the long position is decreasing [4].

大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货21100，基差-125，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌3860吨至 118168吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 现货价格 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations today, while PP is also expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7000 (+90), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, indicating a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [4] - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6600 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 62, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, indicating a bearish trend [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, downstream peak - season demand is supported, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [6] - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7000 (change: +20), the price of the 01 contract is 6969 (change: - 30), the basis is 31 (change: +50), the warehouse receipt is 12958 (change: 0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PE social inventory is 54.5 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6600 (change: - 20), the price of the 01 contract is 6662 (change: - 29), the basis is - 62 (change: +9), the warehouse receipt is 14586 (change: 0), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 63.9 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PP social inventory is 33.0 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 3584.5, the output is 2773.8, the net import is 1360.32, and the apparent consumption is 4134.12. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the output is 3425, the net import is 360, and the apparent consumption is 3785. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-27锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 2 1.基本面：近期硅锰市场震荡运行，基本供需面无较大变动，近期还需关注宏观层面对市场的影响；中性。 2.基差：现货价5720元/吨，01合约基差-52元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向下，01合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5750-5850震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price is strong, and the 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th. The basis strengthened on October 24th [4][8][35] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [4][14][17] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high. Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [6][23][29] Multi-Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise**: Downstream consumption is high, the spot price is resistant to decline, and there is anti-involution in the domestic market [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6] Basis - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is -585, which is bearish [4] Spot Price - The 23-year full latex (non-deliverable) spot price rose on October 24th [8] Inventory - The exchange inventory and Qingdao area inventory are both decreasing. The exchange inventory has been continuously destocking recently, and the Qingdao area inventory has also been continuously destocking [14][17] Import - The import volume has rebounded [20] Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production is at a record high for the same period, and tire industry exports are at a record high for the same period [23][29][32]