大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-23原油早报 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普表示，他认为与俄罗斯总统普京会面"不合适"，所以取消了和普京在布 达佩斯的会面，特朗普表示，他认为是时候对俄罗斯实施制裁了，他希望制裁不会持续太久；美国财 政部发布制裁俄罗斯石油的声明，在最新一轮制裁目标中纳入Rosneft（俄罗斯石油公司）、LukOil（卢 克石油公司），美方准备在必要时对俄罗斯采取进一步行动；特朗普称与印度总理莫迪通电话，通话 后特朗普表示莫迪向其保证印度将限制从俄罗斯采购石油。有报道暗示美印接近达成贸易协议，该协 议可能使印度逐步削减俄罗斯原油进口，从而推 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is under increasing pressure as refineries have increased production recently. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt sample production capacity increased, and the output of sample enterprises also increased [8]. - The demand side is weak. The current demand is below the historical average level, with the construction of various types of asphalt and related products showing low or declining operating rates [8]. - The cost side is supported by the strengthening of crude oil. Although the daily processing profit of asphalt has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased, the rising crude oil price is expected to provide short - term support [9]. - The overall expectation is that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term. The asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3228 - 3270 [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: The refineries' increased production has raised supply pressure, and it may further increase next week. The planned production in August 2025 decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate, output, and shipment of sample enterprises all changed, with the device maintenance volume decreasing [8]. - Demand: The operating rates of various types of asphalt downstream products are generally lower than the historical average, indicating weak demand [8]. - Cost: The daily processing profit of asphalt decreased by 8.00% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit in Shandong decreased by 18.59%. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the cost in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The asphalt futures market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract in the 3228 - 3270 range [10]. - Other factors: The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is mixed, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreasing. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the 01 contract price is below the MA20, which is bearish. The main position is net long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [11]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts generally increased compared with the previous values, with different ranges of increase. The inventory situation also changed, with some inventories increasing and some decreasing. The operating rates of different regions and products also showed various trends [18]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [20]. - Spread: It includes the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil, providing comprehensive information for analyzing the market relationship [23][26][29][33]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, reflecting the price changes in the spot market [36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: It includes the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt, which are important for understanding the profitability of the asphalt industry [39][42]. - Supply - side analysis: It covers aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, crude oil price and production volume, refinery production, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume, comprehensively reflecting the supply situation of the asphalt market [45][47][50][53][56][59][62]. - Inventory analysis: It includes exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, which are crucial for understanding the inventory status of the asphalt market [65][69][72]. - Import and export analysis: It shows the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price difference trends of South Korean asphalt, reflecting the international trade situation of asphalt [75][78]. - Demand - side analysis: It includes aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion, and downstream machinery demand), asphalt operating rate, and downstream operating conditions, comprehensively reflecting the demand situation of the asphalt market [81][84][87][91][96][99][101]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet shows the production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand of asphalt in different months, helping to understand the overall supply - demand relationship of the asphalt market [106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业 产能利用率为76.69%，环比减少0.07个百分点；电石法企业产量31.772万吨，环比减少9.92%, 乙烯法企业产量14.966万吨，环比减少0.78%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减 少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.59%，环比增加.38个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材 开工率为33.26%，环比增加7.39个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40%，环比增 加.17个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2601 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate in the range of 2880 - 2940. Influenced by the U.S. soybean trend, high October imports, and spot price discounts, it will likely maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **A2601 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4000 - 4100. Affected by Sino - U.S. trade negotiations, high imports, and domestic production increase expectations, it will be subject to short - term interactive impacts [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - U.S. tariff negotiations are deadlocked, causing short - term negative impacts on U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market will oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - Domestic soybean imports in October remain at a relatively high level, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories have declined from their highs. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits have led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening soybean meal demand in October and suppressing price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, low inventory pressure on oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain U.S. soybean - growing area weather [14]. - **Negative Factors**: High total domestic soybean imports in October and the expected U.S. soybean harvest and bumper crop [14]. - **Main Logic**: Market focus on U.S. soybean harvest weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [14]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Positive Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean price floor, and expected increased domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - **Negative Factors**: Bumper Brazilian soybean crops and increased Chinese purchases, as well as expected domestic soybean production increases, suppress price expectations [15]. - **Main Logic**: Market focus on U.S. soybean weather and Sino - U.S. trade tariff games [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: Spot price in East China is 2860, with a basis of - 25, indicating a discount to futures. Oil - mill soybean meal inventory is 118.92 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease and a 3.04% year - on - year decrease [9]. - **Soybeans**: Spot price is 4100, with a basis of 43, indicating a premium to futures. Oil - mill soybean inventory is 719.91 tons, a 3.63% month - on - month increase and a 14.38% year - on - year increase [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Data - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 14 - 22, soybean and meal futures and spot prices showed certain fluctuations. For example, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated between 2885 - 2917, and the spot price between 2860 - 2900 [18]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: From October 13 - 22, soybean and meal warehouse receipts changed. For instance, the soybean meal warehouse receipt decreased from 41285 to 42582 [20]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide historical data on global and domestic soybean supply - demand balances, including harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress**: Include data on the planting, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 - 2025 [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: Show the planting area, yield, output, and other data of U.S. soybeans in the past six months [43]. - **Soybean Import and Related Market Conditions**: U.S. soybean weekly export inspections have rebounded month - on - month but declined year - on - year. Domestic soybean imports in October have decreased from their highs but increased year - on - year. Oil - mill soybean inventories remain high, and soybean meal inventories have decreased from their highs [44][46][47]. - **Pig Market Conditions**: Pig inventories are rising, sow inventories are flat year - on - year and slightly declining month - on - month. Pig prices have recently fallen again, and piglet prices remain weak. Domestic large - pig ratios have increased, and secondary fattening costs have risen slightly. Pig - farming profits have recently worsened [55][57][59][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market has been in a weak downward trend recently. Besides the macro - news pressure on commodities, the continuous game of methanol supply - demand has also shown negative impacts on the market. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2230 - 2290 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals are neutral. The basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a discount to the futures. The inventory in East and South China ports decreased slightly last week, and the available circulating supply in coastal areas also decreased. The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the net position of the main players is short with an increase in short positions. It is expected to oscillate this week [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some domestic plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to be put into production this month. Some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production. There will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly. Coal - based methanol producers have a certain profit margin and are actively selling their products. Some producers in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of methanol in various domestic regions has generally declined. For example, the price in Jiangsu dropped by 2.39% week - on - week. The futures price also decreased by 2.50% week - on - week. The basis in Jiangsu was - 19 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to the previous period. The CIF price in China decreased by 1.13% week - on - week, while the CIF price in Southeast Asia remained relatively stable [8][9][11]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 1258,900 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period. The available circulating supply in coastal areas decreased by 63,400 tons to 877,000 tons [5]. - **Profit**: The profit of coal - based methanol decreased week - on - week, while the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained stable, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - based methanol increased. The profit of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid showed different trends, and the profit of MTO also increased [21][35][38][42][47]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including those in the Northwest, East, South, and other regions. The maintenance periods and reasons vary, such as planned maintenance, equipment failures, and gas restrictions [59]. - **Foreign Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. Some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally, while some are under maintenance or have low operating rates [60]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance, while others are operating stably. Some plants have plans for future production increases or maintenance [61].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market lacks short - term guidance and maintains a volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2300 - 2360 range oscillation. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is 133, showing a premium over futures, which is bullish; the inventory is 1.75 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish; the price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish; the main short positions are decreasing and funds are flowing in, which is bearish. Due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it has returned to a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and although the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other, global geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From October 14th to 22nd, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 2959 - 2992, and the trading volume was between 6.51 - 18.62 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2440 - 2500, and the trading volume was 0. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2440 - 2500. The rapeseed meal futures prices of the 2601 and 2605 contracts fluctuated. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9089 on October 13th to 4702 on October 22nd. Rapeseed meal futures declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small - fluctuating premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in October, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed continued to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory was flat. The oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume remained low. Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][16]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report

1、基本面：市场消息人士称，稳定的船燃活动及新加坡地区未受制裁资源供应有限将在短期内部分支撑亚洲高 硫燃料油基本面，但持续强劲的高硫燃料油炼油利润率正在抑制炼厂的原料需求；在北亚下游市场，舟山枢纽 的保税船用燃料油销量在9月份环比下降7.7%至71.32万吨，此前8月因受美国额外制裁港口订单转移带来一次性 提振而创下纪录高位，此次回落可能属正常化；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油364.6美元/吨，基差为-7元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为426.7美元/吨，基差为-9元/吨， 现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油10月15日当周库存为2235.9万桶，增加174万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线偏下；偏空 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空减，偏空；低硫主力持仓多单，多减，偏多 6、预期：隔夜收到美俄会谈取消及对俄制裁增加，原油受地缘担忧影响大幅上行，燃油因此收益，预计开盘将 大幅走高，短期在情绪刺激下可能回升至前期震荡区间下沿。FU2601：2720-2780区间偏强运行，LU2512： 3200-3260区间偏强运行 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-23 ...

每日观点 锰硅2601： 2 1.基本面：供需基本面无较大变动，十月份经济会议召开，宏观政策对市场的影响有待验证，短期硅锰市场仍将维持 "偏弱暂稳" 格局，后市硅锰合金价格需关注钢招定价对市场的指引以及经济会议对市场的影响；中性。 2.基差：现货价5720元/吨，01合约基差-90元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向下，01合约期价收于MA20下方。偏空。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5700-5830震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0元/吨 2000元/吨 4000元/吨 6000元/吨 8000元/吨 10000元/吨 12000元/吨 14000元/吨 2020-01-01 2020-08-01 2021-03-01 2021-10-01 2022-05-01 2022-12-01 2023-07-01 2024-02-01 2024-09-01 2025-04-01 硅锰：FeMn65Si17：市场价：天津（日） 硅锰： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The Sino - US relationship is tense, which affects the export of new US soybeans and pressures prices. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main trading ranges are expected to be 8000 - 8400 for soybean oil Y2601, 8900 - 9300 for palm oil P2601, and 9500 - 9900 for rapeseed oil OI2601 [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report for August showed a 9.8% MoM decrease in Malaysian palm oil production to 1.62 million tons, a 14.74% MoM decrease in exports to 1.49 million tons, and a 2.6% MoM decrease in end - of - month inventory to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current shipping survey data shows a 4% MoM increase in Malaysian palm oil exports this month, and palm oil supply pressure will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8442, with a basis of 114, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, a MoM increase of 20,000 tons and a YoY increase of 11.7% [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, so supply will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9182, with a basis of 18, indicating the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, a MoM increase of 10,000 tons and a YoY decrease of 34.1% [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main palm oil contract increased [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: Same as above for the MPOB report, and palm oil supply will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10151, with a basis of 317, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, a MoM increase of 10,000 tons and a YoY increase of 3.2% [4]. - Market: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and there is a palm oil tremor season [5]. - **Negative**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-23） 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：铁水近期虽有小幅下滑，但总体仍在高位，刚需仍有支撑，下游库存暂时处于安全位置，但 近期考虑焦煤供应有收紧预期，部分采购计划有增加预期，但由于焦钢盈利状况普遍不佳，多数仍维持 按需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：部分煤矿因环保及安监趋严有所停产，加之供给端煤矿近日事故仍零星发生，区域性供应 有所缩减。贸易商询盘与实际成交订单稍有增加，煤矿出货顺畅，煤企焦煤库存有不同程度下滑，考虑 到目前煤矿厂内焦煤库存低位，且焦钢企业对部分优质资源采购力度不减，带动部分煤种有明显上涨现 象；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1300，基差90.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781 ...