Workflow
Da Yue Qi Huo
icon
Search documents
大越期货天胶早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market has support at the bottom, and short - term long trading is recommended. The overall situation of natural rubber is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventory is starting to increase, and the tire operating rate is at a high level, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The spot price is 14,750, and the basis is - 1,100, showing a bearish signal [4]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased week - on - week and year - on - year; the inventory in Qingdao decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is running above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption is relatively high. The tire production reached a new high in the same period, but the export of the tire industry declined, and automobile production and sales decreased seasonally [4][23][29][32]. - **Price**: The spot price of 2023 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on August 12, and the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was mentioned but no specific data was given [8]. - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, and the inventory in Qingdao has changed slightly [14][17]. - **Import**: The import volume has rebounded [20]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao [6].
大越期货油脂早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US soybean oil biodiesel policy supports increased biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations have an impact on the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Niño weather [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views **Soybean Oil** - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production reduction falling short of expectations. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month-on-month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,558, with a basis of 82, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2]. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,450 - 8,650 [2]. **Palm Oil** - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,268, with a basis of 128, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,200 - 9,600 [3]. **Rapeseed Oil** - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,906, with a basis of 96, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,600 - 10,000 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5].
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:45
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述: • 1. 基本面:宏观方面,7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%,环比降 0.4 个百分点,连续 4 个月收缩,财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5,同样收缩,7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元,同 比增 7.2%。"反内卷"政策推动商品预期改善,但情绪降温后回归基本面。短期油价震荡回落。 供需端,农膜淡季,短期开工略有恢复,但仍处于偏低水平。当前LL交割品现货价7270(+10), 基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: LLDPE 2509合约基差-119,升贴水比例-1.6%,偏空; • 3. 库存:PE综合库存57.7万吨(+1.4),偏空; • 4. 盘面: LLD ...
大越期货纯碱早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:40
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply-demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoint - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plants have few overhauls, supply remains at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, and terminal demand is weak. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,409 yuan/ton, and the basis is -134 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [2][34]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Expectation**: The "anti-involution" sentiment has returned. The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: The peak summer overhaul period is approaching, and production will decline [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market | Market | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Low-end Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,345 | 1,235 | -110 | | Current Value | 1,409 | 1,275 | -134 | | Change Rate | 4.76% | 3.24% | 21.82% | [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -23.80 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co-production method in East China is 18.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 85.41%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally [18]. - The weekly production of soda ash is 744,600 tons, including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new production capacity of soda ash. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales-to-production ratio of soda ash is 90.69% [25]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 159,600 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.19% [28]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in-production daily melting volume has dropped significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.8651 million tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].
沪锌期货早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:40
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of zinc show a mixed picture, with some factors being bullish and others neutral or bearish. The overall expectation for Shanghai zinc ZN2509 is to oscillate and strengthen [2]. - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc oscillate and rise, with a shrinking volume and both long and short positions reducing, but the short - side reducing more. The short - term market may oscillate and consolidate, and technically, the price is above the moving average system, with the short - term indicator KDJ rising and running in the strong zone, while the trend indicator shows that the long - side strength is decreasing and the short - side strength is increasing, with the short - side having a slight advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons, consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons, consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is bullish [2]. - The basis is - 100 with a spot price of 22530, being neutral [2]. - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 274 tons to 15768 tons, being neutral [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, which is bullish [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. 2. Zinc Futures Market on August 12 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on August 12 varied by delivery month. For example, the 2509 contract had a trading volume of 79971 lots and a turnover of 901564490 yuan [3]. 3. Domestic Spot Market on August 12 - The prices of zinc - related products in the domestic spot market on August 12 showed different trends. Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; zinc ingot was 22530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet was 4120 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe was 4512 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 23050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27590 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20850 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7729 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 4. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From July 31 to August 11, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 84400 tons to 99000 tons. Compared with August 4, it increased by 11800 tons, and compared with August 7, it increased by 7700 tons [5]. 5. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on August 12 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on August 12 were 15768 tons, an increase of 274 tons. Guangdong had 5482 tons with an increase of 225 tons, and Tianjin had 10286 tons with an increase of 49 tons [6]. 6. LME Zinc Inventory on August 12 - On August 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons [2][7]. 7. Zinc Concentrate Price on August 12 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions on August 12 was mostly 17160 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, except in Hechi (16960 yuan/ton) and Longnan (17110 yuan/ton) [8]. 8. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on August 12 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters on August 12 all decreased by 30 yuan/ton, with prices ranging from 22290 yuan/ton (Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium) to 22920 yuan/ton (Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry) [12]. 9. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July was 470300 tons [14]. 10. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on August 12 - The processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different domestic regions on August 12 ranged from 3400 to 4100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on August 12 - The total trading volume of zinc contracts among members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange on August 12 was 126968 lots, a decrease of 8228 lots. The total long position was 57632 lots, a decrease of 3363 lots, and the total short position was 56690 lots, a decrease of 5486 lots [17].
大越期货尿素早报-20250813
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:35
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:近期尿素盘面震荡。"反内卷"情绪降温后走势回归基本面。国内供应方面,日 产及开工率仍处于偏高位置,库存再度累库。需求端,工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落,三聚氰 胺开工亦回落,农业需求预计持续回落。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显,出口利润继续走强,出 口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1810(+30),基本面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: UR2509合约基差54,升贴水比例3.0%,偏多; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存145.9万吨(-1.8),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约20日均线走平,收盘价位于20日线下,偏空; • 5. 主力持仓:UR主力持仓净空,增空,偏空; • 6. 预期:尿素主力合约盘面震荡,国际尿素价格偏强,出口政策未超预期放开,国内整体供 过于求仍明显,预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述: • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20250812
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:39
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-08-12 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 ✸豆粕观点和策略 1.基本面:美豆震荡回落,美豆产区天气整体良好和技术性震荡整理,美豆千点关口附近震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回升,需 求良好支撑和技术性震荡整理,但八月进口大豆到港维持高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面 上涨高度,短期或维持区间震荡格局。中性 2.基差:现货2920(华东),基差-125,贴水期货。偏空 3.库存:油厂豆粕库存104.31万吨,上周99.84万吨,环比增加4.48%,去年同期134.59万吨, 同比减少22.5%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线上方 ...
大越期货生猪期货早报-20250812
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:39
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 生猪期货早报 2025-08-12 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸生猪观点和策略 生猪: 1. 基本面:供应方面,8月份国内逐渐迎来中秋国庆双节前供需旺季,国内出栏积极性增多生猪价格 短期探底回升后维持震荡,预计本周供给猪、肉双增。需求方面,国内宏观环境预期偏悲观,高温 天气下居民整体消费意愿热情不强,压制短期鲜猪肉消费,前期中国对美国和加拿大猪肉进口加征 关税,提振市场信心。综合来看,预计本周市场或供需双增、猪价短期维持震荡格局。关注月中集 团场出栏节奏变化、二次育肥市场动态变化情况。中性。 2. 基差:现货全国均价13670元/吨,2511合约基差-470元/吨,现货贴 ...
大越期货甲醇周报-20250812
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows significant regional differences in expectations, and attention should be paid to whether the arbitrage between the inland and ports is opened. The inland supply increases due to the concentrated resumption of previously shut - down methanol plants, but the tight - balance supply - demand pattern continues. It is expected to fluctuate strongly next week. The supply - demand contradiction in ports is obvious, with concentrated shipments from Iran and the shutdown of large olefin plants in ports. The futures market has some support but limited upward momentum, and the East China methanol market is expected to fluctuate with both rises and falls next week [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Review - The domestic methanol market has regional differences. Inland supply increases, but the tight - balance pattern persists. The port is expected to accumulate inventory, and the futures market has support but limited upside [6]. 2. Fundamental Data Domestic Methanol Spot Price - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices in different regions had different changes. Jiangsu decreased by 0.21%, Hebei increased by 1.79%, Inner Mongolia increased by 1.21%, and Fujian decreased by 1.03%. The price in Shandong remained unchanged [7]. Methanol Basis - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the futures price decreased by 0.42%, and the basis increased by 5 [9]. Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit decreased by 9 yuan/ton, natural - gas - based remained unchanged, and coke - oven - gas - based increased by 334 yuan/ton from August 1st to August 8th [12]. Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared with last week, and the northwest load decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [14]. Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, CFR China decreased by 0.37%, CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, and the spread decreased by 1 [17]. Methanol Import Spread - From August 1st to August 8th, the spot price decreased by 0.21%, the import cost decreased by 0.51%, and the import spread increased by 7 [20]. Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - From August 1st to August 8th, the prices of formaldehyde and acetic acid remained unchanged, and dimethyl ether increased by 0.79% [24]. Formaldehyde Production Profit and Load - The formaldehyde production profit decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.90% to 25.42% this week compared with last week [28]. Dimethyl Ether Production Profit and Load - The dimethyl ether production profit decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.82% to 8.88% this week compared with last week [30]. Acetic Acid Production Profit and Load - The acetic acid production profit increased by 3 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 1.94% to 82.42% this week compared with last week [35]. MTO Production Profit and Load - The MTO production profit increased by 16 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% this week compared with last week [39]. Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory increased by 8.60 to 51.08, and in the South China port, it increased by 6.70 to 29.25 [40]. Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - The warehouse receipts increased by 1.66% to 8688, and the valid forecasts remained at 1100 [42]. 3. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance - Multiple domestic enterprises are in maintenance, such as Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods and losses vary [44]. Overseas Methanol Plant Operation - Overseas plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, etc. have different operation statuses, including restarting, normal operation, and planned maintenance [45]. Olefin Plant Operation - Olefin plants in different regions have different operation statuses. Some are running stably, some are in maintenance, and some have load - related issues [46].
大越期货原油早报-20250812
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:34
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The tariff truce between the US and China has been extended by 90 days, and OPEC+ crude oil production decreased in July. Although inflation has risen, investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September. The oil price is expected to fluctuate before the US - Russia summit on Friday, with a short - term trading range of 490 - 500, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. - Short - term geopolitical conflicts have decreased, while the risk of trade tariff issues has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The tariff truce extension, OPEC+ production cut, and expected Fed rate cut are neutral factors. The spot price is at a premium to the futures, API and EIA inventories decreased, but the 20 - day moving average is downward and the price is below it, and WTI and Brent crude oil main positions are long - increasing [3]. - **Market Data**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil and Oman crude oil showed different changes, with Brent up 0.04 (0.06%), WTI up 0.08 (0.13%), SC down 3.90 (- 0.79%), and Oman down 0.53 (- 0.77%) [7]. 3.2 Recent News - **Trade Policy**: The US has extended the tariff exemption period with China again. Without the extension, the US would have raised tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, and China would have retaliated with 125% tariffs. After previous negotiations, the US reduced tariffs to 30% and China to 10% [5]. - **Geopolitical Events**: Trump will meet with Putin on Friday to assess the possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. European countries are worried that the US may pressure Ukraine to accept an unfavorable peace agreement [5]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US may impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports, and the Sino - US tariff exemption period has been extended again [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: There is hope for a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the US has tense trade relations with other economies [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory Data**: API inventory decreased by 423.3 million barrels in the week ending August 1, and EIA inventory decreased by 302.9 million barrels in the same period. Cushing area inventory increased by 45.3 million barrels, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory decreased by 48.2 million barrels as of August 11 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of July 29, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased [3].