Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall trend of the outer market was a slight upward oscillation during the National Day holiday, mainly influenced by the macro - expectation of the Fed's potential interest rate cut in October, which led to the strengthening of metals. Fundamentally, nickel ore prices remained firm, and nickel iron prices were stable, providing strong support at the lower end. Stainless steel inventory reduction was good, showing a strong performance during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. New energy vehicle production and sales data were positive, but the growth of nickel demand might be limited due to technological substitution in the battery segment, with the installed capacity of ternary batteries decreasing month - on - month. In the long - term, the oversupply situation of nickel remained unchanged. The report suggested maintaining an oscillatory mindset for SHFE Nickel 2511, and trying short positions at high - pressure levels if there was a rebound [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel remained flat. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, shipping costs were high, and nickel iron prices were stable, resulting in a solid cost line. The inventory reduction of stainless steel slowed down. The report predicted that Stainless Steel 2511 would oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: The closing price of SHFE Nickel主力 on September 30 was 120,900 yuan, down 200 yuan from the previous day; LME Nickel on October 8 was 15,390 (USD), up 65 from the previous day. Spot prices of various nickel products generally increased slightly, with SMM1 electrolytic nickel at 122,450 yuan, up 450 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of Stainless Steel主力 on September 30 was 12,730 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. Spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in major regions remained unchanged [11]. **Inventory** - **Nickel**: As of September 30, the LME nickel inventory was 232,632 tons (October 8 data), an increase of 1,320 tons; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 24,817 tons, a decrease of 240 tons. The total inventory increased by 1,080 tons [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On September 26, the inventory in Wuxi was 588,200 tons, in Foshan was 281,400 tons, and the national inventory was 984,500 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of the 300 series increased by 5,400 tons month - on - month. As of September 30, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 86,969 tons, a decrease of 179 tons [18][19]. **Price of Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 57 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on September 30 compared with the previous day. The shipping costs from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged. High - nickel (8 - 12) and low - nickel (below 2) prices were stable at 954.5 yuan per nickel point and 3,450 yuan per ton respectively [21]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 13,164 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,511 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,854 yuan [23]. **Nickel Import Cost** The calculated import price of nickel was 123,812 yuan per ton [26].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-9 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于高位；下游浮法玻璃 供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1170元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1255元/吨，基差为-85元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年10月9日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | 供给端来看 | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 3万吨 | 环比有所增加1 | 09% | ， | ， | 。 | . | . | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 需求端来看 | 上周工业硅需求为8 | 6万吨 | 环比增长7 | 需求有所抬升 | 50% | ， | ， | . | . | . ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | 供给端来看 | 根据隆众 | 2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241 | 3万吨 | 环比降幅5 | 同比 | 1% | ， | ， | ， | , | . | . | 增幅17 | 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为42 | 环比增加5 | 632个百分点 | 全国样 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE are neutral, with the expected trend of PE being volatile today. The PP fundamentals are also neutral, and the PP is expected to fluctuate today [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from the previous month, with improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with limited support for the polyolefin cost side. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, with overall weak demand support. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,160 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 7, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (-8), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the agricultural film operation rate slightly increases but remains weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is cost and demand, driven by domestic macro policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The new production capacity of Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, with sufficient supply. The demand in the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations, and the overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -72, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates, the crude oil price fluctuates, the new production capacity is put into operation, the average downstream operation rate remains stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [6] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical instability and cost support; negative factors include weak demand year-on-year and many new projects in the fourth quarter [7] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the PE production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the PP production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased year by year. The consumption growth rate generally showed an upward trend [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in September reached 49.8%, showing continued improvement in the business climate [2]. - The basis is neutral with the spot price at 83,030 and a basis of -80, indicating a discount to the futures [2]. - Copper inventories are in a neutral state. On October 8, copper inventories decreased by 225 to 139,200 tons, and the SHFE copper inventories decreased by 3,745 tons to 95,034 tons compared to last week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward [2]. - The main positions are bullish as the main net positions are long and increasing [2]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. Section Summaries Daily View - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, neutral basis, neutral inventory, bullish market trend, and bullish main positions. Copper prices are expected to stay strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of positive and negative factors are not fully provided [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [20][22]. Spot - Information about spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory details such as the type, total amount, and changes, is presented, but specific values are not filled in [6]. Futures - Spot Price Difference - The topic is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [7]. Exchange Inventory - The topic is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [11]. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [14]. Processing Fees - Processing fees are falling [16]. CFTC - The topic is mentioned, but no specific content is provided [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,250, with a basis of 110, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400. [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of -78, indicating that the spot price is lower than the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500. [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,200, with a basis of 156, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. [4] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,900 - 10,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stocks-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] -利空: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5] Supply - The report mentions the inventory of soybean oil [6], palm oil [17], rapeseed oil [19], and domestic total edible oil [23], as well as the inventory of soybeans [10], rapeseeds [21], and the inventory of soybean meal [8] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and soybean meal [14]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 焦煤： 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-9） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 1、基本面：区域内部分煤矿已安排假期检修，煤矿产量略有下滑。随着下游节前补库临近尾声，下游 对部分高溢价资源采购相对谨慎，近日个别竞拍资源价格出现小幅回落，煤矿由于预售订单较多，场内 基本无库存，心态良好，部分煤矿价格仍有探涨现象；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差159；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：部 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and there have been more disturbances on the supply side recently. However, the recovery of terminal demand is weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.47%; the spot price of Shahe Safe large - sized glass was 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70%; the main basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32.50% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - sized boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1156 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country was 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating glass production lines was at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass was 160,700 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [29]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.55% compared with the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, the production was 55.1 million tons, the consumption was 53.1 million tons, the production growth rate was 3.94%, and the consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [4]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw glass [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX expected a 2.77 million - ton surplus, while ISO predicted a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast [5]. - After the National Day holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures market is expected to continue its weak rebound. Two recent typhoons affected the southern Guangxi sugar - cane producing areas, and the subsequent sugar - cane yield reduction needs attention [5][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, the change of US cola formula to use sucrose, and potential yield reduction in Guangxi due to typhoons. Negatives are the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus in the new season, low international sugar prices around 16 cents per pound with an open import profit window and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; in July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons [5]. - **Basis**: The Liuzhou spot price was 5,890 yuan/ton, and the basis for the 01 contract was 397 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1.16 million tons [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, but the main trend was unclear [5]. - **Expectation**: After the National Day holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar market is expected to continue its weak rebound. Two typhoons affected southern Guangxi, and the subsequent yield reduction needs attention [5][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - No relevant information provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand. ISO predicted a supply gap of 231,000 tons; StoneX expected a 2.77 million - ton surplus; Czarnikow forecast a 7.4 million - ton surplus; Datagro estimated a 1.53 million - ton surplus [5][8][34]. - From 2024/25 to 2025/26, the sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, yield per unit, sugar production, import, and consumption are presented in the table, with the international sugar price ranging from 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound and the domestic sugar price from 5,800 - 6,500 yuan/ton in 2025/26 [35]. - The import cost of raw sugar processed and taxed (50% tariff) from different months and sources is shown in the table, such as the cost from Brazil in September 2025 being 5,454 yuan/ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data - No relevant information provided