交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-10 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温， 供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1218元/吨，基差为-62元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash is weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily View - The maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is subject to many disturbances, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the terminal demand is average. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level for the same period. The basis shows that the futures price is higher than the spot price. The inventory is above the 5 - year average, the price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions. All these factors are bearish [3]. 2. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to rise**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [4]. - **Likely to fall**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro - level benefits exceed expectations [5]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1250 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1165 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 85 yuan. The closing price of the main contract has decreased by 0.40%, and the low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe has decreased by 0.43% [7]. 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1165 yuan/ton, which has decreased by 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [14]. 5. Production Profit of Soda Ash - The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy - quality soda ash is - 97.20 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 115.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [17]. 6. Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output of Soda Ash - The weekly industrial operating rate of soda ash is 89.12%. The weekly output of soda ash is 77.69 tons, among which the output of heavy - quality soda ash is 43.01 tons, at a historically high level [20][23]. 7. Changes in Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, multiple enterprises have newly added production capacity plans. In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [24]. 8. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 113.40% [27]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 16.02 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable [30]. 9. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash plants is 165.98 tons, an increase of 0.50% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [37]. 10. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate and total demand growth rate of soda ash [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, with limited support for the cost side of polyolefins. The overall fundamentals are neutral, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided on October 5 to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a lower increase than previous rumors. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Device maintenance has decreased, production has increased, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is nearing its end, downstream demand is gradually weakening, and overall demand support is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7,080 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 3, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price also fluctuating. The agricultural film start - up rate has slightly increased but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to increase production in November, with limited support for the cost side. New production capacity from Ningbo Jinfa has been put into operation, supply is abundant, and demand from the home appliance and real estate sectors is restricted by cautious expectations. The average downstream start - up rate is maintained at around 50%, and overall demand support is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, showing a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with the crude oil price fluctuating, new production capacity put into operation, and the downstream average start - up rate maintained. The industrial inventory is moderately high [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Geopolitical unrest provides cost support [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Driven by cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,080 (-80), the price of the 01 contract is 7,077 (-76), the basis is 3 (-4), the warehouse receipt is 12,729 (-7), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 543,000 tons (+113,000), and the PE social inventory is 525,000 tons (0) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,780 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,745 (-107), the basis is 35 (+107), the warehouse receipt is 14,030 (-68), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 681,000 tons (+161,000), and the PP social inventory is 372,000 tons (+91,000) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have also shown certain changes, and the PE import dependence has gradually decreased [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a projected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net import volume, and apparent consumption have changed, and the PP import dependence has also decreased [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22180，基差+135；偏空。 3、库存：10月9日LME锌库存较上日增加0吨至38250吨，10月9日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加1646吨至58867吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌上涨走势，收20日均线之上,20日均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2511 is expected to be an oscillating rebound. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc decline in an oscillating manner, with a shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more long - position reductions. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average, and the moving average support is weak. The short - term indicator KDJ is declining and operating in the weak area. The trend indicator shows that the long - position strength is rising, the short - position strength is falling, and the dominance of short - position strength is narrowing [2][19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish signal [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price of zinc is 21,880 yuan/ton, with a basis of +80, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On October 8, LME zinc inventory increased by 50 tons to 38,250 tons compared to the previous day. On September 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrant decreased by 2,043 tons to 57,221 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - On September 30, the trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 254,693 lots, and the open interest was 234,904 lots, with a decrease of 16,120 lots [3]. 3.5 Spot Market - On September 30, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 16,540 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 21,880 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,004 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes in China was 4,412 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,130 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,835 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.6 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 18 to September 29, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 148,300 tons to 128,400 tons, a decrease of 16,200 tons compared to September 22 and 7,000 tons compared to September 25 [5]. 3.7 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On September 29, the average processing fee for 50% grade zinc concentrate in different regions ranged from 3,500 to 4,100 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.8 Futures Company Transaction and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on September 30, among the top 20 futures companies in terms of trading volume, the total trading volume was 256,677 lots, a decrease of 20,576 lots compared to the previous day; the total long - position volume was 86,076 lots, a decrease of 10,322 lots; the total short - position volume was 88,608 lots, a decrease of 7,283 lots [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report analyzes the supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate and related lithium compounds. The overall supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate shows a state of capacity mismatch, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,740 - 73,860 yuan/ton for the 2511 contract. The main logic is that the supply of lithium carbonate is relatively high, while the demand growth is not strong enough, and the cost structure of different production methods also affects the production enthusiasm of enterprises [8][9][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in September 2025 will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August 2025 was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in September will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8][9]. - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 75,407 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.03%, with a production loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica is 78,268 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.58%, with a production loss of 7,776 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Other Factors: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 30, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 750 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [9]. 3.2 Lithium Ore Supply - Price: The price of 6% lithium spodumene is 858 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous value, with a change rate of 0.00%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) is 1,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous value, with a decline rate of 1.07% [15]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows different situations in different months. In general, the demand is relatively large, and the production and import volume together meet the demand, but there are still some months with a supply - demand gap [27]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) shows different trends. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene was 356,750 tons in a certain period, a month - on - month increase of 12.75% [18]. - Supply - Demand Balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also varies by month. In some months, there is a surplus, while in others, there is a shortage. For example, in August 2025, the supply - demand balance was 2,695 tons, indicating a surplus [35]. 3.4 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - Production and Export: The production and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The export volume in different months shows an upward or downward trend, and the production also fluctuates. For example, the production in August 2025 was 21,820 tons [38][40]. - Supply - Demand Balance: Similar to lithium carbonate, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also shows different situations in different months, with some months having a surplus and others having a shortage [40]. 3.5 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Different Production Methods: The cost - profit situations of different lithium compound production methods (such as purchased lithium spodumene, purchased lithium mica, recycling) are different. Some production methods are in a loss state, while others have certain profit margins. For example, the production from purchased lithium spodumene has a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton [9][43]. - Purification and Transformation: The profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification and lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate also change over time, which is affected by factors such as raw material prices and product prices [45][48]. 3.6 Inventory - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The lithium carbonate inventory includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average [9]. - Lithium Hydroxide Inventory: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends in different periods, which is affected by production and demand [50]. 3.7 Demand - Lithium Battery: The production, sales, and export of lithium batteries show different trends. For example, the monthly production of power batteries in a certain period was 62,500 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 11.81% [18][54]. - New Energy Vehicles: The production, sales, and export of new energy vehicles also change over time. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has shown an upward trend in recent years [78][79]. - Ternary Precursor and Ternary Material: The price, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors and ternary materials are also analyzed in the report. The production of ternary precursors in a certain period was 76,159 tons, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: The price, production, and cost - profit of lithium iron phosphate and related products are also analyzed in the report. The production of lithium iron phosphate in a certain period shows an upward trend [70][73].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为81.42%，环比增加0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.7665万吨，环比增加2.76%,乙烯法企业产 量14.061万吨，环比增加6.27%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为47.76%，环比减少1.5个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.91%，环比减少0.52个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.43%，环比增加.3个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market is expected to see a decrease in both supply and demand this week. Pig prices are likely to be weak in the short - term, with a potential bottom - out and rebound in the medium - term, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. - The Chinese government's decision to impose additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada has boosted market confidence. However, the domestic pig consumption market is affected by the approaching off - season. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply and demand of pigs have both decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to decrease this week. The domestic macro - environment shows some improvement, but consumer willingness has weakened after the holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market is expected to have a double - decline in supply and demand, with pig prices being weak in the short - term and potentially bottoming out and rebounding in the medium - term [10]. - **Basis**: The national average spot price is 12,180 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 645 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a 0.4% month - on - month increase and a 2.2% year - on - year increase. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a 0.02% month - on - month increase and a 4.2% year - on - year increase [10]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [10]. - **Expectation**: In the near future, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. Pig prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern this week, with the LH2601 contract oscillating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 [10]. 3.2 Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the US and Canada have boosted market confidence. After the festivals, the supply and demand of pigs have decreased, and the spot price is expected to be weak in the short - term and maintain a range - bound oscillation in the medium - term [12]. - After the festivals, pork demand has weakened in the short - term, but the spot price has returned to a volatile state due to reduced supply. The room for further price decline may be limited, and it may show a bottom - out and rebound trend [12]. - The losses in pig farming profits have recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for large - pig slaughter in the short - term. The double - decline in supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [12]. - After the National Day, the pig spot price has remained stable, and the futures market has generally returned to a range - bound oscillation pattern. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [13]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the China - US tariff war, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides the prices of pig futures (near - month 2511, main 2601), pig futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions from September 22 to September 30 [14]. - **Inventory Data**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a 5.9% month - on - month decrease and a 5.2% year - on - year decrease. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a 0.2% month - on - month increase and a 6.2% year - on - year decrease [28]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position data is summarized in the report, only that the main position is net short and short positions are increasing [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report provides viewpoints and strategies for both soybeans and soybean meal. The overall outlook for soybean meal is that it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract expected to oscillate between 2940 and 3000. The domestic soybean A2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. Key factors influencing these trends include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, the arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation in the market [8][10] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in October, and the inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has declined from a high level in October. The weather in US soybean - producing areas and Sino - US trade negotiations are in a critical period, and the September USDA report has a relatively neutral impact. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in October and suppressing price expectations. However, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations still keeps the soybean meal market in a range - bound pattern. - The inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills continues to rise. There is still a possibility of speculation about the weather in US soybean - producing areas and uncertainties in the Sino - US tariff war. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, awaiting clarity on US soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12] 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of imported soybeans in October, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and continuous expectations of a bumper US soybean harvest. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [13] Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations. - Bearish factors: a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [14] 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot price summary: Data from September 22 to September 30 show the prices and trading volumes of soybean and soybean - meal futures and spot markets, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [15][17] - Global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets: Provide data on the supply - demand balance of soybeans globally and in China from 2015 to 2024, including harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [31][32] - The sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina: Show the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different time periods, including sowing rate, emergence rate, good - quality rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvest rate [33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41] - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports in the past six months: Provide data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from March to September 2025 [42] - Other data: The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans reached a high in September and then declined, with an overall year - on - year increase. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills has declined from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continues to increase. The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the post - holiday stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the soybean - meal output in July increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has decreased following the decline of US soybeans, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][50][52] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the cotton market is complex, with both bearish and bullish factors. The main 01 contract is expected to be short - term volatile and weak, accelerating the bottom - probing process [4]. - Bullish factors: Reduced mutual tariffs between China and the US in the early stage, and a year - on - year decline in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, relatively high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the imminent large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" period [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton season: ICAC9 monthly report shows a production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; USDA9 monthly report shows a production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for the 2025/26 season: production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,759, with a basis of 1,544 (01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending inventory in the 2025/26 season in September is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: During the National Day holiday, US cotton slightly declined. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, and the market is quiet. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the market expects an increase in supply. The main 01 contract is expected to be short - term volatile and weak, accelerating the bottom - probing process [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (Year - on - Year Statistics) in September**: In 2025/26, global cotton production is 25.622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is 25.872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; ending inventory is 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [9][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%); the price forecast (Cotlook A index) is 57 - 94 cents/pound (median 73 cents) [11]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated production is 6.31 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents/pound [12]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content