1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices trended weakly. The short - term digestion of the anti - involution in the macro - aspect did not lead to better transaction volume with price drops. Downstream buyers still mainly made rigid - demand purchases. In the industrial chain, ore prices and ferronickel prices were weakly stable, but some ferronickel quotes rebounded. The cost line remained low. July and August are traditional off - seasons for stainless steel consumption, and the inventory of the 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly this week. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial for the increase in nickel demand. The long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [8]. - Technically, on the daily K - line, the price is running below the 20 - day moving average. The important support and resistance levels of the Fibonacci retracement are effective. The main funds have not decreased, and short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD indicator shows a death cross, and the KDJ has entered the oversold area with a rebound demand. Overall, it is expected to move in a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Weak operation this week, with long - term oversupply unchanged. The macro - situation has short - term digestion, downstream purchases are rigid - demand based, and new energy vehicle data is positive [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% prices remained unchanged from last week [13]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price decreased by 2.95%, 3.19%, and 3.10% respectively [14]. - **Nickel Iron**: Low - grade ferronickel in Shandong decreased by 3.03%, while high - grade ferronickel remained unchanged. According to Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals data, high - grade ferronickel increased by 2.5 yuan/nickel, and low - grade ferronickel increased by 100 yuan/ton [13][46][47]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 0.18% [14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Ore prices were stable, and shipping costs were flat. As of July 31, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 9.9436 million wet tons, an increase of 0.66%. In June 2025, nickel ore imports were 4.3466 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.21%. The market was mostly in a wait - and - see state, and downstream procurement was cautious [17]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - This week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and downstream buyers made rigid - demand purchases. The import window opened, and some Norwegian nickel resources increased. In the long - term, supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply pattern remains. In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37%. The estimated production in July was 36,745 tons. Import and export data also showed certain changes [25][26][30]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices were weakly stable. In June 2025, China's nickel pig iron production was 23,300 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35%. The import volume in June was 1.041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 22.8% and a year - on - year increase of 50.0% [45][49][52]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased slightly. In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month. The import volume was 109,500 tons, and the export volume was 390,000 tons. As of August 1, the national inventory was 1.1112 million tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons, while the 300 - series inventory increased by 6,700 tons [59][64][71]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In June 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.268 million and 1.329 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 26.4% and 26.7%. From January to June 2025, the production and sales were 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [77][78]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, the price is below the 20 - day moving average. The Fibonacci retracement levels are effective. The main funds are still active, short - sellers are adding positions on rallies. The MACD shows a death cross, and the KDJ is in the oversold area, indicating a wide - range oscillation [85]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Combing Summary - **Influence on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore and ferronickel are neutral - bearish; refined nickel is neutral; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral - bullish [88]. - **Trading Strategies**: Both the main contract of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel are expected to move in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [90].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（7.28-8.1） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周随着中美贸易谈判延期，不及市场预期，总体商品持续走弱，白糖短期见顶回落。 StoneX：25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩下调70万吨，至304万吨。2025年5月底，24/25年度本期制 糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖811.38万吨；销糖率72.69%（去年同期66.17%）。 2025年6月中国进口食糖42万吨，同比增加39万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11.57万吨，同 比减少10.32万吨。 09合约临近交割，主力即将换月01合约。消费旺季即将过去，随着外糖持续走低，郑糖也出现震 荡 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（7.28~8.1） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周评： 沪铝上周震荡调整下跌，上周主力合约下跌1.2%，周五收盘报20510元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能， 国内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国关税不确定性仍存。 国内基本面上，需求进入淡季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存462800吨，较前周出现小幅增加，SHFE周 库存增1737吨至117527吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- | -- ...

策略周报（7.28—8.1） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 橡胶：短线操作 橡胶期货 研究结论 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 一、期货行情回顾 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU2509 | 15595 | 15635 | 14275 | 14310 | -8.18% | | NR2509 | 13340 | 13385 | 12080 | 12175 | -8.6% | | BR2509 | 12415 | 12415 | 11380 | 11455 | -7.73% | 衍 生 品 本周市场大跌，跟随整体市场回落 市场情绪主导 短线操作 本周市场大跌，跟随整体市场回落。价格不断上涨后，做空力量不断增强，叠 加政治局最新表态偏空，市场看涨情绪消退，商品价格大跌。技术图形上短期呈现 偏空格局。 策略周报 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 23 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14300 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-04燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构持稳运行，但含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货升水连续第五日下跌至三个 多月新低；交易商预计未来几周夏季公用事业需求减弱将加剧高硫燃油基本面压力；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油411.41美元/吨，基差为137元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为517.5美元/吨，基差 为172元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线附近，20日线偏平；中性 5、主力持仓：高硫主力持仓空单，空翻多，偏多；低硫主力持仓 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper fluctuated and consolidated. The main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.04% to close at 78,400 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were still many global uncertainties. In China, consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. In the industrial end, domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 141,750 tons, showing a slight increase last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons compared with the previous week [4]. - The supply - demand balance of copper in 2024 is tight, while it will be in surplus in 2025 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fell 1.04% to close at 78,400 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors and US tariffs affected copper prices, and there were many global uncertainties. Domestic consumption entered the off - season, and downstream consumption willingness was average. Domestic spot trading was general, mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **PMI**: No specific data or analysis provided [10]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, the supply - demand of copper is in tight balance, and it will be in surplus in 2025. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 - 2024 [12][15]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory was 141,750 tons, showing a slight increase last week. SHFE copper inventory decreased by 880 tons to 72,543 tons compared with the previous week. Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [4][16][19]. 3.3 Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee is at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: CFTC non - commercial net long positions are flowing out [25]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific data or analysis provided [28]. - **Import Profit**: No specific data or analysis provided [31]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific data or analysis provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-8-4 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳， 光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1250元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1256元/吨，基差为-6元，期货 升水现货；中性 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.58万吨，较前一周减少3.69%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪消退，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、夏季检修高峰期来临，产量将有所下滑。 利空： 主 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （7.28-8.1） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，国际原油整体呈现震荡走势，燃料油价格震荡跟随为主，高硫报收2862元/ 吨，周跌1.82%，低硫报收3571元/吨，周跌1.16%。 数据来源：wind 每周现货行情 | 品种 | 舟山高 | 舟山低 | 新加坡高 | 新加坡 低硫燃 | 中东高 | 新加坡 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硫燃油 | 硫燃油 | 硫燃油 | 油 | 硫燃油 | 柴油 | | 前值 | 518.00 | 525.00 | 412.48 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-4） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦炭： 1、基本面：焦企利润水平偏低，生产积极性一般，部分亏损焦企仍保持前期减产状态。另外，部分焦 企厂内原料煤库存偏低，焦企开工暂时难有改善，且随着下游积极拿货，焦企厂内库存水平偏低，焦炭 供应仍显紧张；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1530，基差-55；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存639万吨，港口库存199.1万吨，独立焦企库存55.6万吨，总样本库存839.7万吨，较 上周减少3.8万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦炭主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：产地焦企生产仍有受限，区域内焦 ...