Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. However, the spot is at a discount to the futures. Copper inventories have mixed trends, and the price hit a new high with high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to position control [4] - Aluminum: There is a game between interest - rate cuts and weak demand. Factors such as carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest - rate cuts are positive. On the other hand, the global economic outlook is not optimistic and high aluminum prices may suppress downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products are negative factors [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and the December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% (up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month) are positive factors [4] - **Basis**: The spot price is 100,570 with a basis of - 840, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a negative factor [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9, copper inventory decreased by 2,100 to 138,975 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 35,201 tons to 180,543 tons compared to the previous week, showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, which is positive [4] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is positive [4] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances in Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine event are ongoing, and the copper price hit a new high with large - scale high - level fluctuations. Position control is necessary [4] Aluminum - **Spot Price**: The Shanghai spot price was 70,770, down 375; the Nanchu spot price was 70,690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70,870, down 400 [6] - **Inventory**: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70,798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory (daily) was 74,750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136,300 tons, an increase of 29,728 tons [6] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 - 2023, China's aluminum market was generally in a supply - shortfall situation, with shortages ranging from 4.31 to 68.61 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a supply surplus of 15 million tons [25]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：SHFE 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24140，基差+125；偏多。 3、库存：1月9日LME锌库存较上日减少275至105500吨，1月9日上期所锌库 存仓单较上日增加74吨至40919吨；中性。 1月9日期货交易所锌期货行情 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal (M2605) - Expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the rebound of US soybeans, demand improvement, and a mix of positive and negative news, it will likely maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [9]. - The basis shows a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow, which is bearish [9]. 2.2. Soybeans (A2605) - Expected to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by the US soybean situation, domestic demand recovery, and the interaction of multiple factors, it will remain in an oscillatory state in the short - term [11]. - The basis shows a discount, which is bearish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing with capital inflow, which is bullish [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No information provided 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory range [13]. - The decline in domestic hog - farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports price expectations, and the interaction of US soybean influence and demand increase has led to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Considering the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US and South American soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors are that the total arrival of imported soybeans in December remained at a relatively high level, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean - harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are that the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - Bearish factors are the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases, as well as the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations [16]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 26 to January 7 are provided, along with the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from December 29 to January 7 [17][19]. - Information on soybean and meal warehouse receipts from December 25 to January 7 is presented [21]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [34]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2023/24 season is given, including data from December 13 to January 24 for planting and from April 21 to June 16 for harvesting [35]. - The planting, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 are provided, including data from April 28 to November 10 [36][37][38][39]. - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 3, 2024, to May 4, 2025, and from October 25, 2025, to December 26, 2025 [40][41][43]. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 13, 2024, to January 15, 2025, and from November 12, 2025, to December 30, 2025 [42][44]. 3.4.4. Other Data - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided 3.6. Other Market Conditions - The soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot premium remaining at a high level [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year [26][51]. - The procurement of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises increased from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained at a relatively high level [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained at a low level [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The hog inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [57]. - The hog price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [59]. - The proportion of large hogs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The domestic hog - farming profit fluctuated slightly [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply remains high while demand is sluggish, with costs rising during the dry - season. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8865 - 9095. There are both positive factors like cost support and negative factors such as slow post - holiday demand recovery [3][6]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply production scheduling is decreasing, and overall demand shows a continuous decline. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490. There are also positive and negative factors affecting the market [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: Last week's demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, indicating persistent weak demand [3]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase. Sample enterprise inventory was 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase. Main port inventory was 140,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, and cost support increased during the dry - season [3]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Expectation**: Supply production scheduling is decreasing but remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to trade in the 8865 - 9095 range [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's production was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease. The predicted production for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Silicon wafer production shows short - term increases and medium - term potential pull - backs, while battery cell and component production continues to decline. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline [8][9]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon material is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 13,900 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 7th, the price of N - type dense material was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4800 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory was 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [11]. - **Expectation**: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 57110 - 59490 [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: Most contracts showed price increases, with the largest increase of 1.40% in the 12 - month contract [17]. - **Basis**: Most basis values decreased, with the 12 - month contract showing a significant change [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 10,799, a 1.05% increase [17]. - **Organosilicon**: DMC production decreased by 6.10%, while D4 price increased by 1.08%. The monthly DMC inventory increased by 21.18% [17]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 0.85%, and the import profit increased by 67.65% [17]. - **Spot Price**: Most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, and sample enterprise inventory increased by 3.48% [17]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Overall production increased slightly, while the operating rate in Sichuan decreased significantly [17]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: Most silicon wafer prices remained unchanged, and the weekly production increased by 5.74%, while the inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - **Futures Closing Price**: Most contracts showed price decreases, with the largest decrease of 2.56% in the 04 contract [19]. - **Basis**: All basis values decreased [19]. - **Battery Cell**: Most battery cell prices remained unchanged, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [19]. - **Component**: Most component prices remained unchanged, and the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, while the export volume increased by 5.54% [19]. - **Inventory**: Domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, and European inventory decreased by 5.44% [19]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, and the consumption decreased by 10.37% [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年1月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为29.3624%，环比减少3.78个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.305万吨，环比减少3.22%,样本企业 产量为49万吨，环比减少11.39%,样本企业装置检修量预估为96.1万吨，环比增加1.05%,本周炼厂有所减产，降 低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.4%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%， 环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为7.4823%，环比增加0.38个百分点，高于历史平均水平；道路 改性沥青 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 22,420 tons, a 1.16% week - on - week increase, equal to the historical average for the same period. In December 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a 1.23% month - on - month decrease. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a 13.46% month - on - month decrease [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 99,894 tons, a 0.98% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 18,581 tons, a 3.22% week - on - week increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average for the same period. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 124,131 yuan/ton, with no daily change, and the production income is - 694 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss; the cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 123,199 yuan/ton, a 2.10% daily increase, and the production income is 5,161 yuan/ton, resulting in a profit; the production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. - Market trend: The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - led, and lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 136,620 - 143,300 [9]. - Influencing factors: Positive factors include the production suspension and reduction plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [11][12]. - Main logic: Under the tight supply - demand balance, the market sentiment fluctuates due to news [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply and demand analysis: As mentioned above, the supply and demand situations of lithium carbonate are presented in terms of production, inventory, and import/export [8][9]. - Cost and profit analysis: Different raw material sources have different cost - profit situations, with the salt lake side having obvious cost advantages [10]. - Market trend prediction: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate within the specified range, affected by both positive and negative factors [9][11][12]. - Main risk points: Production suspension/reduction and maintenance plans may impact the market, and the start - up time of industry consolidation is uncertain [14]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data 2.1 Market Overview - Price changes: The prices of various lithium - related products, such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have changed to varying degrees. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 7.93%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 4.71% [16]. - Futures data: The closing price of the futures contract increased, and the number of registered warrants increased by 8.81% [16]. 2.2 Supply - Side Data - Lithium ore: The monthly production of lithium ore increased, and the import volume of lithium concentrate also increased significantly. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed certain fluctuations [19][25]. - Lithium carbonate: The monthly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the import volume decreased. The weekly and monthly production and capacity of different production methods (lithium辉石, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide increased, and the export volume also increased. The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of different sources (causticization, smelting) showed certain changes [19][39]. 2.3 Demand - Side Data - Lithium batteries: The monthly production volume of lithium battery cells, the monthly battery loading volume, and the export volume of lithium batteries all showed growth trends. The prices of different types of batteries also changed [56]. - Ternary precursors: The price, cost, and production volume of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations. The monthly supply - demand balance also changed, with a short - term supply surplus in some months [61][64]. - Ternary materials: The price, cost - profit, production volume, and export/import volume of ternary materials showed different trends. The weekly start - up rate also fluctuated [66]. - Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate: The price, cost - profit, production volume, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate/phosphate showed certain changes. The monthly start - up rate also changed [71]. - New energy vehicles: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles all increased, and the sales penetration rate also showed an upward trend [78]. 2.4 Inventory Data - Lithium carbonate: The overall inventory decreased slightly, with different trends in the inventory of smelters, downstream enterprises, and other parties [10][19][52]. - Lithium hydroxide: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide showed certain fluctuations [52]. - Lithium batteries: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types [58]. - Ternary precursors: The monthly inventory of ternary precursors showed certain changes [61]. - Ternary materials: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [68]. - Lithium iron phosphate: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed certain trends [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling. The current demand may remain sluggish, and the overall supply pressure is strong while the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4928 - 5016. [8][9][10][13] - The bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. The bearish factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Supply - In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 338,150 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 145,710 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.51%. [8] Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.94%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.58 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 29.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 35.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 66.43%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 80.75%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. [9] Cost - The profit of calcium carbide method was - 713.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 6.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 279.49 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 16.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2187.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. [9] Basis - On January 7th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 212 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 309,226 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.98%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 226,576 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.46%. The ethylene factory inventory was 82,650 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%. The social inventory was 525,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.1 days, a month - on - month decrease of 3.77%. [10] Market - MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. [10] Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position has increased. [10] Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased this week, and the expected maintenance is expected to decrease next week with an increase in production scheduling. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market overview data, including prices, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, and production of different types of PVC [15][16]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price and trading volume trends, and spread analysis of PVC futures [18][21][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the double - ton spread and caustic soda consumption and inventory [27][30][32][35][38]. Supply - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily and weekly production, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [40][42]. Demand - It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate, and profit, cost, and production of paste resin of PVC. It also shows the real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as social financing scale, M2 increment, local government special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][47][51][54]. Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55]. Ethylene Method - It provides the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads of the ethylene method [57]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the monthly export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025 [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high with significant high - level fluctuations due to geopolitical disturbances and mine - end events, and attention should be paid to position control [3] - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply, while natural disasters are potential risks [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and an increase in December manufacturing PMI to the expansion range are positive factors [3] - Basis: The spot price is 103,595 with a basis of 185, showing a premium over futures, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On January 8, copper inventory decreased by 2,850 to 143,225 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons last week, which is neutral [3] - Disk: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is positive [3] - Main positions: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is positive [3] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price hit a new high with significant high - level fluctuations, so position control is necessary [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - Positive factors: Global policy easing, mine - end tightness, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine - end production increase with a production cut event at a Freeport Indonesia mine [4][5] - Negative factors: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [20] - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [22]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，但总体价格仍在高位。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍 矿价格稳定，出船量受天气影响，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格持续反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回 落，短期受镍价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需 求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货150150，基差2430，偏多 3、库存：LME库存275634，+20088，上交所仓单38776，-612，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线波动较大，日内交易。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2026-01-08 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are fluctuating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are deadlocked, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] Summary by Category Daily Views Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Later, it will enter the production - reduction season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8404, the basis is 446, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, compared with 1.16 million tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but later it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8530, the basis is 32, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, compared with 570,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - Expectation: Palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, the basis is 937, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, compared with 550,000 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. Palm oil tremor season [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Supply - Related - Imported soybean inventory [6] - Soybean oil inventory [7] - Soybean meal inventory [9] - Oil mill soybean crushing [11] - Palm oil inventory [17] - Rapeseed oil inventory [19] - Rapeseed inventory [21] - Total domestic inventory of oils and fats [23] Demand - Related - Apparent consumption of soybean oil [13] - Apparent consumption of soybean meal [15]