2、基差：现货市场价1100，基差4；现货升水期货；中性 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-7） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：节后部分前期停产检修煤矿陆续复产，区域内供应小幅增量，煤矿产量较节前有所改善。 考虑到焦炭价格有继续降价预期，双焦市场情绪偏弱，煤矿线下报价均有不同程度下跌。且线上成交仍 不理想，竞拍底价多有下调，成交价格跌多涨少；偏空 6、预期：钢厂目前利润得到一定的回升，但整体利润仍较低，对高价煤种资源抵触情绪仍存，且对焦 炭还有第五轮提降的预期，因此下游企业采购依旧谨慎，目前多控制原料到货节奏，按需采购为主，预 计短 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory at the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures increased from 1177 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.10%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe increased from 1120 yuan/ton to 1135 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.34%. The main basis was - 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.51% [6] 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1135 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3.3 Soda Ash Production - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 137.40 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 88.50 yuan/ton [15] - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.65% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash was 71.19 tons, including 38.56 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [21] - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025, with an actual planned production of 100 tons in 2025 [23] 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 108.54% [26] - The daily melting capacity of national float glass was 15.45 tons, and the operating rate was 73.89% [29] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide was 140.83 tons, a decrease of 2.10% from the previous week, and the inventory was at a historical high for the same period [35] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E showed that the industry's effective production capacity, output, and apparent supply generally showed an upward trend, but there were fluctuations in the supply - demand gap [36] 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to reduced maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3] - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2025, there were still large - scale production plans, and the industry output was at a historical high. The demand for soda ash decreased due to the production reduction of photovoltaic glass [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The US soybean market is affected by the expected high - yield of South American soybeans and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean market and improved demand. With the end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium, it may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4220 and 4320. The US soybean market has similar influencing factors as the soybean meal market. The domestic soybean market is supported by the increase in end - of - year demand, technical buying, domestic soybean storage, and rising spot prices, but is also affected by the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates between 2740 - 2800, influenced by US soybean trends, demand improvement, and other factors [9]. - **Soybeans**: Oscillates between 4220 - 4320, affected by US soybean trends, domestic demand, and trade - related factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports the price, and the interaction between the US soybean market and demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible speculation on US soybean产区 weather and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [15]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a high yield, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3070, with a basis of 294, indicating a premium over futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4240, with a basis of - 36, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: From December 25, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated, and the price also changed. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 during this period, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [17]. - **Futures and Spot Prices of Soybeans and Meal**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 26, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipt Statistics of Soybeans and Meal**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 24, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [33][34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Other Data**: The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory increased, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [48][49][51][53][55][57][59][61][63].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续冲高。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，出船量受 天气影响，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格持续反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货143450，基差3650，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255546，+192，上交所仓单39388，+964，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多减，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，多头少量持有。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Date: January 7, 2026 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Consulting Number: Z0010442 [1] - Contact Number: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Report Core View - The prices of oils and fats are in a range - bound consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are stalemated, causing the export of new US soybeans to be frustrated and prices to be under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Daily View on Different Oils Soybean Oil - Fundamental: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season. Rating: Neutral [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8320, with a basis of 408, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year. Rating: Bearish [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased. Rating: Bullish [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 will fluctuate in the range of 7700 - 8100 [2] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil will enter the production - increase season, and the supply will increase. Rating: Neutral [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8470, with a basis of 30, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year. Rating: Bullish [3] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased. Rating: Bullish [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil in terms of the MPOB report. Palm oil will enter the production - increase season, and the supply will increase. Rating: Neutral [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10032, with a basis of 902, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. Rating: Bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year. Rating: Bearish [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. Rating: Bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. Rating: Bearish [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish Factors: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - Bearish Factors: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Charts - Supply: Imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total oil and fat inventory [6][7][9][11][17][19][21][23] - Demand: Soybean oil apparent consumption and soybean meal apparent consumption [13][15]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. There are still geopolitical disturbances, and the copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3] Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% indicate a bullish trend [3] - **Basis**: Spot price is 103,700 with a basis of - 1,620, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 7, copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week, considered neutral [3] - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, still bullish [3] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mine supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase with the Freeport Indonesia mine production cut event [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [21] - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 to 2024, production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data are presented, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23] Other Information - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the short - term trend of SHFE zinc ZN2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals show a supply shortage, the basis is positive, inventory is decreasing, the trading volume is increasing, and the long - position is dominant, all of which support the upward movement of zinc prices [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Zinc Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] Zinc Futures Market on January 6 - The trading volume of zinc futures on January 6 was 326,282 lots, and the total trading value was 3.94248076 billion yuan. The open interest was 230,243 lots, an increase of 22,571 lots [3] Domestic Spot Market on January 6 - The domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,440 - 24,540 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,490 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 24,140 - 24,240 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,190 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 24,280 - 24,380 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,330 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 24,460 - 24,560 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,510 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton [4] Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From December 25, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 111,600 tons to 114,000 tons. Compared with December 29, it increased by 8,400 tons, and compared with December 31, it increased by 5,300 tons [5] Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on January 6 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on January 6 were 40,845 tons, a decrease of 529 tons compared with the previous day. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 302 tons, and in Tianjin decreased by 227 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory on January 6 - The LME zinc inventory on January 6 was 105,775 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared with the previous day. The cancellation ratio was 7.42% [7] Zinc Concentrate Price on January 6 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions were around 21,030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 270 yuan/ton. Only in Chifeng, it was 20,530 yuan/ton [8] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on January 6 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 370 yuan/ton. For example, the price of Hunan Xiuzhou Smelter was 24,620 yuan/ton, and that of "Xuewen World" was 25,050 yuan/ton [11] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on January 6 - The domestic processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate was between 1,300 - 2,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 40 - 60 US dollars/kiloton [15] SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on January 6 - The total trading volume of SHFE members was 283,114 lots, an increase of 58,886 lots. The total long - position was 66,575 lots, an increase of 6,743 lots, and the total short - position was 67,932 lots, an increase of 3,560 lots [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The cotton market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. In the short - term, the main 05 contract is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a possibility of回调 after continuous rapid surges [4][5]. - Positive factors include potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises, and favorable factors such as basis and market trends [4][5][6]. - Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10%. According to the USDA December report, the 2025/2026 production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,711, and the basis for the 05 contract is 856, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast of China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The main factors for the current rebound are a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises due to rising cotton prices, and significant reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue to fluctuate upward, with a higher probability of回调 after continuous rapid surges [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Forecast**: In December, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [11][12]. - **ICAC Forecast**: In November 2025, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 9.71442 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/2026, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton. The market will be influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental reality. Although the Venezuela attack event has brought short - term risk premiums and boosted market sentiment, the current fundamental support is not strong. Domestic enterprise operating rates remain high, some downstream demand is slow, and port inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2605, the fundamentals show that although the Venezuela attack event has not directly pushed up crude oil futures, it has brought short - term risk premiums. However, the current fundamental support is weak. The domestic enterprise operating rate is stable above 80%, some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, and the upstream maintains a low - inventory sales strategy. The traditional downstream demand in winter is slow to follow up, and some downstream enterprises have shut down. The market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The basis shows that the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 05 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased significantly by 113,200 tons to 1.1316 million tons, and the overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 39,300 tons to 634,400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyae; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 693 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 258 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2,247 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 321 US dollars/ton. The spot prices in different regions of China have changed to varying degrees, with Jiangsu rising by 1.74% to 2,220 yuan/ton, Shandong remaining unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton, Hebei remaining unchanged at 2,055 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia rising by 2.64% to 1,848 yuan/ton, and Fujian rising by 1.13% to 2,235 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2,215 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous period. The basis is 5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread is 3 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period [8][9][11]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions have also changed, with East China remaining unchanged at 80.65%, Shandong dropping by 2.39% to 68.71%, Southwest dropping by 1.22% to 44.06%, and Northwest dropping by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports is 755,900 tons, an increase of 26,400 tons from the previous period, and the inventory in South China ports is 412,700 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or shutdown status. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling and other enterprises' devices are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses [57]. - **Foreign Device Maintenance**: Some foreign methanol production enterprises' devices are also in different operating states. For example, some Iranian enterprises' devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and some enterprises in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States and other countries' devices are operating normally or have completed maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some olefin production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are in synchronous maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [59].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - dominated. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 123,900 - 130,120 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, equal to the historical average. In December 2025, the output was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.46% [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 99,894 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,581 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.22%. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 118,137 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - day flat rate, and the production income is 696 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 116,523 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.71%, and the production income is - 1,177 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. - **Other Indicators**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis on January 5 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 119,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: On the supply side, the monthly total output of lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.64% month - on - month. On the demand side, the monthly output of some downstream products decreased, but the monthly total battery loading volume of power batteries increased by 11.18% month - on - month [18].