交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2340至2400区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期缺乏指引影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2460，基差110，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报10.13-10.17 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，焦炭市场暂稳、锰矿市场偏弱暂稳。北方市场成本支撑力度弱于南方市场。 从供应端来看，北方地 区硅锰工厂生产节奏基本稳定，另外，据了解北方地区后期有增产的预期。南方市场来看，广西、贵州两地硅锰工厂 开工率长期维持低位，短期暂无明显变动；而云南地区受丰水期结束影响，电价即将上涨，硅锰生产总成本将显著抬 升。目前已有云南工厂明确表示将在电价调整后启动减产，预计后续云南地区硅锰开工率将逐步下降 从需求端来 看，河钢集团10月硅锰二轮询价5800元/吨，比较首轮询价5750元/吨上调50元，对比看，9月硅锰定价：6000元/吨。 市场观望河钢的最终定价。 总体来看，供需基本面无较大变动，十月 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（10.13~10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约下跌0.33%，周五收盘报20910元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存491225吨，较前周出现小幅减少， SHFE周库存减2649吨至122028吨。 期货主力 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level needs to be monitored for the rebound of the market [10]. - For PTA, although the spot basis weakened due to the resumption of some device loads and new device commissioning last week, it is close to the risk - free arbitrage level. With the load reduction of some mainstream PTA suppliers' devices, the downward space of the basis is expected to be limited. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. Although the spot supply is abundant due to the continuous recovery of the load last week, there is replenishment demand at the low price, so the price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided 2. Daily Tips PTA - Fundamental: On Friday, individual devices unexpectedly reduced their loads, and the basis slightly strengthened during the day session. The October cargo was traded at a discount of 80 - 85 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4310 - 4370. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 85 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4340, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 62, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [5]. - Expectation: The basis is expected to have limited downward space, and the absolute price will fluctuate with the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. MEG - Fundamental: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the market basis slightly strengthened. The intraday futures price opened high and then declined. Some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment at low prices. The spot basis moderately strengthened in the afternoon, and the spot was traded at a premium of 75 - 78 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The overseas price center also weakened [6]. - Basis: The spot price is 4096, and the basis of the 01 contract is 93, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 49.5 tons, an increase of 4.99 tons compared to the previous period [6]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - Main position: Net short position with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: The port inventory is expected to remain stable at the beginning of this week. The price center is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the polyester load and device changes [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity gradually increased, and the production and demand also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in October 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the output was 647, and the total demand was 669 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the total supply and demand of ethylene glycol also changed. In October 2025, the total supply was 252, and the total demand was 249 [12]. Price Data - On October 17, 2025, compared with the previous day, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers showed different degrees of change. For example, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, while the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 40 to 4330 yuan/ton [13]. Inventory Data - The inventory of PTA factories, MEG ports, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2021 to 2025 [41][43][49]. Production Rate Data - The production rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms showed different trends from 2020 to 2025 [52][54][56][58]. Profit Data - The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and various polyester products showed different trends from 2022 to 2025 [13][60][62][64][66][67]. 5. Impact Factor Summary - Bullish factors: Before the festival, the polyester market sales were booming under the resonance of demand recovery and oil price rebound. The inventory of POY and FDY decreased rapidly, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. The 2.2 - million - ton device of Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load [8][9]. - Bearish factors: The 3.6 - million - ton device of Yisheng New Materials reached full load, and the loads of 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical increased [9].

Report Information - Report Date: October 20, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Wang Mingwei [1] -从业资格号: F0283029 [1] - Investment Advisory Number: Z0010442 [1] - TEL: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Global oil and fat fundamentals are generally loose, and prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Domestic fundamentals are also loose, with stable oil and fat supplies. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption with a planned B50 implementation in 2026 [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month - on - month. Subsequently, it will enter the production - reduction season, reducing the supply pressure of palm oil [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8452, with a basis of 196, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, export data is increasing, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing the supply of palm oil [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9300, with a basis of - 8, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above, and it will enter the production - increase season, increasing palm oil supply [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10146, with a basis of 285, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **利空**: Oil and fat prices are at a relatively high historical level, domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The analysis centers around the generally loose global oil and fat fundamentals [5] Supply - Related Information - **Imported Soybean Inventory**: Mentioned but no specific data analysis provided [6] - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: August 22 inventory was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% year - on - year [2] - **Palm Oil Inventory**: August 22 port inventory was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and down 34.1% year - on - year [3] - **Rapeseed Oil Inventory**: August 22 commercial inventory was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% year - on - year [4] - **Rapeseed Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [21][22] - **Domestic Total Oil and Fat Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [23][24] - **Oil Mill Soybean Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [7][8] - **Soybean Meal Inventory**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [9][10] - **Oil Mill Soybean Crushing**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [11][12] Demand - Related Information - **Soybean Oil Apparent Consumption**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [13][14] - **Soybean Meal Apparent Consumption**: Chart provided but no specific data interpretation [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with a larger increase in short positions. Overall, it was a decline on heavy volume. As the price dropped, long - position entrances were active, while short - position pressure also intensified. In the short term, the market may continue to weaken. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing its support. Short - term indicator KDJ declined and operated in the weak zone; the trend indicator showed that the long - position strength decreased, the short - position strength increased, and the dominance of short - position strength expanded. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will weaken in a volatile manner [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons. From January to July, global zinc ore production was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis was +110 with the spot price at 21,940, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - On October 17, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons to 38,025 tons compared to the previous day, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 149 tons to 67,317 tons compared to the previous day, which is bullish [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is bearish [2]. - The main positions were net short, and the short positions decreased, which is bearish [2]. - LME inventory warrants remained at a low level, while SHFE warrants remained at a high level [2]. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 17 - The total trading volume of zinc futures on October 17 was 193,359 lots, with a total trading value of 2.11968143 billion yuan, and the total open interest was 229,292 lots, an increase of 9,437 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on October 17 - Zinc concentrate in Linzhou was priced at 17,090 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Zinc ingots in a certain area were priced at 21,940 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. Galvanized sheets in a certain area were priced at 3,969 yuan/ton, unchanged. Galvanized pipes in a certain area were priced at 4,373 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. Zinc alloy in Ningbo was priced at 22,400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton. Zinc powder in Changsha was priced at 27,170 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton. Zinc oxide in Taizhou was priced at 20,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. Secondary zinc oxide in a certain area was priced at 7,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/29 - 2025/10/16) - As of October 16, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.556 million tons, an increase of 195,000 tons compared to October 9 and an increase of 21,000 tons compared to October 13 [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on October 17 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on October 17 were 67,317 tons, a decrease of 149 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong were 37,874 tons, in Jiangsu were 447 tons (a decrease of 75 tons), and in Tianjin were 28,996 tons (a decrease of 74 tons) [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 17 - On October 17, LME zinc inventory decreased by 275 tons compared to the previous day [7]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on October 17 - Zinc concentrates with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi all decreased by 60 yuan/ton [9]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on October 17 - Zinc ingots of 0 grade from various smelters such as Hunan Zhizhihai, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan all decreased by 70 yuan/ton [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - In September 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The production was 1.35% lower than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.80%. The planned production for October was 509,600 tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on October 17 - Zinc concentrate processing fees in different domestic regions ranged from 3,000 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton for 50% grade concentrates, and the import processing fee for 48% grade concentrates was 105 US dollars/kiloton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on October 17 - For the zn2512 contract, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 130,772 lots, an increase of 11,837 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 77,815 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots, and the total short - position volume was 79,759 lots, an increase of 13,424 lots [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-20） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：焦煤供应较为稳定，产量端未出现明显波动。目前下游企业多按需采购，部分高价资源下 游接受度不高，部分降价节奏较慢的煤矿，短期内受库存压力或继续调整价格，但经过前期价格下跌后， 整体降幅收窄；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1260，基差81；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存781.1万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存819.3万吨，总样本库存1895.4万吨， 较上周减少76.2万吨；偏多 6、预期：终端需求一般，近期部分钢厂因利润影响有检修现象，本周铁水继续小幅下移，原料刚需略 有减少。但伴随焦炭市场第二轮提涨呼声再起，焦煤短期需求仍有支撑，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 4、盘面 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-20锰硅早报 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 锰硅2601： 2 1.基本面：供需基本面无较大变动，十月份经济会议召开，宏观政策对市场的影响有待验证，短期硅锰市场仍将维持 "偏弱暂稳" 格局，后市硅锰合金价格需关注钢招定价对市场的指引以及经济会议对市场的影响；中性。 2.基差：现货价5680元/吨，01合约基差-38元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20走平，01合约期价收于MA20下方。中性。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2601：5700-5850震荡运行。 -2000元/吨 0 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 利空： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20930，基差20，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌2749吨至 122028吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. In addition, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025 [11]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific information provided 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in a destocking phase. Bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific information provided 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific information provided 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific information provided