早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | 周四市场在等待中美框架协议的细节内容正式公布，两市主要指数窄幅整理。两市 | | | | | | | | | 成交额 1.27 万亿元，变化不大。中证 1000 指数收 6192 点，涨 5 点，涨幅 0.09%； | | | | | | | | | 中证 500 指数收 5799 点，涨 6 点，涨幅 0.12%；沪深 300 指数收 3892 点，跌 2 点， | | | | | | | | | 跌幅-0.06%；上证 50 指数收 2691 点，跌 1 点，跌幅-0.03%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨 | | | | | | | | | 幅居前的是创新药 ETF 沪港深、黄金股 ETF、科创医药指数 ETF、创新药 ETF、科创 | | | | | | | | | 指数中涨幅居前的是影视院线、贵金属、生物制品、通信设备、化学制药指数，跌 | | | | | | | ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三在中美伦敦磋商达成框架协议利好鼓舞下，两市主要指数快速上行，收复周三 的跌幅。两市成交额 1.25 万亿元，有所减量。中证 1000 指数收 6186 点，涨 24 点， | | | | | 涨幅 0.40%；中证 500 指数收 5792 点，涨 34 点，涨幅 0.61%；沪深 300 指数收 3894 | | | | | 点，涨 29 点，涨幅 0.75%；上证 50 指数收 2692 点，涨 15 点，涨幅 0.59%。行业 | | | | | 与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是稀土 ETF、稀有金属 ETF、游戏 ETF、锂电池 ETF、证券 | | | | | ETF 龙头，跌幅居前的是大数据 ETF、科创医药指数 ETF、创新药 ETF。两市板块指 | | | | | 数中涨幅居前的是稀土永磁、养殖业、能源金属、游戏、商用车指数，跌幅居前的 | | | | | 是可控核聚变、生物制品、通信工程、日用化工、航天 ...

格林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTURES CO.,LTD. EIA原油周度数据报告 交易咨询资格:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 研究员:王琛 从业资格:F03104620 数据解读:EIA公布最新一期库存数据显示,裁止至上周,原油库存比去年同期低5.93%;比过去五年同期低8%;汽油 库存比去年同期低1.59%;比过去五年同期低2%:馏份油库存比去年同期低1.74%。比过去五年同期低17%。美国商业石 油库存总量增长616.2万桶。美国流厂加工总量平均每天1722.6万桶。比前一周增加22.8万桶;炼油厂开工率94.3%,比前 一周增长0.9个百分点。原油需求旺季来临,炼厂高开工率带动原油库存持续下降,而汽柴油需求处于今年季节性低点 。据EIA发布的《短期能源展望》,随着油价下跌导致生产商减少钻井活动,该机构预计美国原油产量将在未来18个月 内下降。EIA预计,全球石油库存增加将在预测期内推动原油价格走低。布伦特原油现货价格在5月份连续第四个月下 跌,平均每桶64美元,比4月份下跌4美元/桶。我们预测,到今年年底,布伦特原油价格将跌至平均61美元桶, ...

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三国债期货主力合约开盘全线高开，全天在高位横向波动，截至收盘 30 年期国 债期货主力合约 TL2509 上涨 0.23%，10 年期 T2509 上涨 0.06%，5 年期 TF2509 上 | | | | | 涨 0.07%，2 年期 TS2509 上涨 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周三央行开展了 1640 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当日有 2149 亿元逆 | | | | | 回购到期，当日实现净回笼 ...

Group 1: Corn Report Industry Investment Rating - Low long [1] Core View - Short - term: The bullish sentiment in the spot market is rising, and the market is operating strongly. Medium - term: The supply pattern in China is expected to gradually tighten, and the spot price will still run strongly. However, the narrowing price difference between corn and wheat and the increase in wheat substitution limit the upside space. Long - term: Policy grain source release and wheat substitution expectations may limit the price upside, and China's corn pricing logic remains import substitution + planting cost, with policy orientation being the key focus [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Overnight, the main contract of CBOT corn futures rose and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.06%. Overnight, the domestic corn futures fluctuated narrowly, and the 2507 contract closed at 2378 yuan/ton with a change of 0% [1]. Important Information - Yesterday, the upward trend of corn spot prices continued. The mainstream purchase price in Northeast China was 2217 yuan/ton, stable compared with the previous day; the mainstream average purchase price in North China was 2445 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day with a narrowing increase. The prices at north - south ports also continued to rise. The purchase price at Jinzhou Port was 2290 - 2325 yuan/ton, up 10 - 15 yuan/ton, and the transaction price at Shekou Port was 2450 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. As of June 11, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 lots, totaling 216,495 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton. Feed enterprises will increase the wheat substitution ratio from 5% - 10% in Q1 to 25% - 30% in Q2. On June 11, the planned sales volume of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn auction was 56,000 tons, all of which were sold. The planned quantity of the corn purchase - sale two - way transaction of China Grain Reserves Beijing Company was 19,000 tons, and the transaction quantity was 8,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 43% [1]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range - bound operation; Medium - term: Maintain a low - long thinking; Short - term: Expect to reach 2400 yuan, and then the expectation turns into pressure. The upper pressure of the 2507 contract is 2390 - 2400 yuan, and that of the 2509 contract is 2420 yuan. Currently, the pressure is effective, and the market starts to organize and repair [1]. Group 2: Live Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating - Range [3] Core View - Short - term: Before the weight pressure is relieved, it is difficult for pig prices to rise, and they may continue to fluctuate weakly. Medium - term: There is still an expectation of increased pig supply, and whether there will be a seasonal upward trend from July to September depends on whether the weight reduction can be completed in June. Long - term: The inventory of breeding sows is still higher than the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, live pig futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.26% to close at 13,600 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.11% to close at 13,325 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the national average live pig price was 14.04 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. This morning, pig prices were weak in the north and stable in the south. In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, flat month - on - month and up 1.3% year - on - year. At the end of April, the inventory of medium and large pigs increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. On June 11, the price difference between fat and standard pigs was 0.05 yuan/jin, the same as the previous day. On June 5, the average weekly slaughter weight of live pigs was 125.84 kg, down 0.05 kg from the previous week with a significantly narrowing week - on - week decline. On June 11, the live pig futures warehouse receipts did not change, with a cumulative total of 525 lots [3]. Trading Strategy - Long - term: High short; Medium - term: Range; Short - term: Fluctuate and organize, test the support effect. The short - term support of the 2509 contract is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,700 - 13,800 yuan. The lower support of the 2511 contract is 13,000 - 13,100 yuan, and the short - term pressure is 13,400 - 13,500 yuan [3]. Group 3: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating - High short [3] Core View - Short - term: The egg supply is stable, and downstream purchases are based on demand, so the short - term egg price is mainly weak and stable. Medium - term: The number of newly - laid hens is increasing, and the theoretical inventory of laying hens is still increasing, combined with the seasonal decline expectation during the plum - rain season, so the near - month futures contracts are still bearish. However, after the spot price remains low from June to July, the concentrated large - scale culling by farmers may lead to a phased supply reduction, and combined with the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption peak season, it may drive a phased rebound in the spot price from August to September [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Yesterday, egg futures showed mixed trends. The JD2507 contract fell 0.35% to close at 2825 yuan/500 kg, and the JD2508 contract rose 0.14% to close at 3515 yuan/500 kg [3]. Important Information - On the 11th, the spot price was mainly weak and stable. The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.66 yuan/jin, down 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.04 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. The spot price of Guantao eggs remained the same as the previous day at 2.56 yuan/jin. On the 11th, the average inventory in the production link was 0.99 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day; the inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, up 0.02 days from the previous day. On the 11th, the average price of old hens was 4.51 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of June 5, the weekly culling age of old hens was 515 days, 6 days less than the previous week. In May, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The theoretical estimated inventory of laying hens in June is 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.45% [3]. Trading Strategy - Previously, it was recommended to pay attention to the band short - selling opportunity after the 2507 contract was under pressure. This week, if the 2800 support is effective, the previous short positions can consider partial profit - taking. Currently, it is recommended to take partial profit and wait and see. If the spot price further weakens, the 07 contract still has some room to squeeze the premium. The 08/09 contracts test the lower support, with the 08 contract being relatively strong and the 09/10 contracts being relatively weak. You can also wait for the band low - long opportunity of the 8/9 contracts after the premium repair is completed [3][4].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 12 日星期四 研究员： 金志伟 从业资格：F3010485 交易咨询资格：Z0011766 联系方式：010-56711811 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 纯碱期货主力 SA2509 合约，期货价格昨日窄幅震荡，结算价跌 1 点，跌幅 0.08%， | | | | | 增仓 48194 手，收于 1202，60 日线下方运行，区间震荡后向下突破走低，连续创 | | | | | 新低，加速下行，最低价来到我们给出的支撑区间后，震荡反弹伴随减仓，昨日继 | | | | | 续窄幅震荡收阴十字星，连续多日窄幅区间震荡波动且昨日伴随增仓，关注短线方 | | | | | 向选择突破机会；夜盘向下走低，收小阴，收于 1189； | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 特朗普关税政策反复，存不确定性； | | | | | 中东紧张局势 ...

市场快讯 -- 巴西制糖进程加速 郑糖盘中跌破支撑 5月29日,巴西甘蔗和生物能源行业协会(UNICA)在报告中表示,2025年5月上半月, 巴西中南部压榨进程同比下降(但降幅较上份双周报告相比有所收窄),期间共压榨 4232万吨甘蔗,制糖240.8万吨。而以上两组数据在2024/25榨季同期则达到4507万吨和 258.4万吨,同比分别下降6.09%与6.8%。从2025/25榨季至今的累计数据来看,当前巴西中 南部已累计压榨7671.4万吨甘蔗并生产出389.8万吨糖,同比分别下降20.24%和22.68%。 但在6月10日(周二)S&P Global Commodity Insights发布的一项对20位分析师的调查显示, 巴西中南部地区5月下半月甘蔗压榨量预计较上年同期增长1.2%,至4591万吨。这意味看 巴西食糖主产区在摆脱了降水犹动后,整体的食糖生产进程出现明显提速,且此轮预测 的追赶速度超出市场预期。在此消息的抗动下,全球食糖预期供应压力再度增加,登加 市场对印度和泰国2025/26榨李的食糖产量也均抱有增产预期,郑糖于今日上午跌破5700 元/吨支撑。 | | | | | UNICA:202 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二夜盘瓶片主力合约 | PR2509 | 的期货价格下跌 | 18 | 元/吨至 | 5794 | 元/吨。持仓方面， | | | | | | | | | 主力合约 | 2509 | 持仓量为 | 4.21 | 万手，持仓+60 | 手。现货市场方面，华东市场水瓶级 | 瓶片价格上涨 | 10 | 元至 | 5910 | 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格上涨 | 10 | 元至 | 6000 | 元/ | | 吨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | 38.26 | 万吨，较上周减少 | 0.68 | 万吨。 | 国 ...

市场快讯-铝合金上市策略推荐 | 市日期 | 到期日 | 挂牌价 | | --- | --- | --- | | 20250610 | 20251117 | 18365 | | 20250610 | 20251215 | 18365 | | 20250610 | 20260115 | 18365 | | 20250610 | 20250216 | 18365 | | 20250610 | 20260316 | 18365 | | 20250610 | 20260415 | 18365 | | 20250610 | 20260515 | 18365 | > 铸造铝合金期货上市挂牌价 铸造铝合金期货上市挂牌价为18365元/吨。 AD2512 > 供需格局 AD2601 AD2602 供应端:再生铝行业产能扩张较快,或维持百万吨以上产能增长,持续拉大废铝产需 AD2603 缺口,这将使得废铝回收环节定价偏强。 AD2604 需求端:汽车轻量化打开压铸铝合金需求空间,使得汽车用铝合金增速高于汽车行业 AD2605 产销增速。 综合来看:供需双增下,原料端矛盾或进一步凸显,废铝价格从成本逻辑支撑铸造铝 合金,铝合金价 ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 10 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2509 期价下跌 31 元至 1697 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格 下跌 70 元至 1760 元/吨，多头持仓增加 13605 手至 20.34 万手，空头持仓增加 17897 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 尿素 | 加 震荡偏 | 手至 20.39 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.77 万吨，较上一工作日减少 0.27 万吨，较去年同 期增加 3.52 万吨；开工 90.33%，较去年同期 79.64%提升 10.69%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 103.54 万吨，较上周增加 5.48 万吨，环比增 5.59%。尿素港口库存 20.5 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.1 ...