Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [2] Core View of the Report - ICE cotton futures rebounded, but with persistent seasonal supply pressure and rising commercial cotton inventories, Zhengzhou cotton hit a monthly low. The textile industry entered the off - season, with weakening domestic demand and limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders. Spinning mills had a weak willingness to replenish stocks, so Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 234,402 lots, and the open interest was 941,760 lots. The settlement prices were 13,415 yuan/ton for January, 13,420 yuan/ton for May, and 13,590 yuan/ton for September. The ICE December contract's settlement price was 62.57 cents, up 21 points; the March contract was 64.39 cents, up 33 points; the May contract was 65.57 cents, up 32 points, with a trading volume of about 63,000 lots [2] Important Information - On November 17, the basis price of machine - picked new cotton in Shihezi, Xinjiang, for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was 1060 - 1100 yuan/ton, stable compared to last Friday, and the pick - up price was 14,460 - 14,550 yuan/ton, down 20 - 30 yuan/ton from last Friday [2] - According to the USDA's November 2025 US cotton supply - demand forecast report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, the harvested area was 44.729 million mu, and the abandonment rate remained unchanged at 20.7% [2] - In September, Indonesia imported 26,000 tons of cotton, a 35.5% decrease from the previous month (about 40,000 tons) and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year (37,000 tons), the smallest monthly import since March [2] - On November 17, the cotton yarn futures increased in volume and decreased in open interest, with prices falling, while the spot prices were stable with a slight increase. The textile market was lukewarm, with most cotton yarn prices stable, some enterprises offering small discounts, and overall good sales of Xinjiang cotton yarn, especially for 40S and 60S yarns [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures rebounded, but due to continuous seasonal supply pressure, rising commercial cotton inventories, the textile industry's off - season, weakening domestic demand, limited growth in the return of foreign trade orders, and spinning mills' weak willingness to replenish stocks, Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak operation [2] Trading Strategy - Close the put option and hold the call option for the previous at - the - money straddle option of the 01 contract; hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,500 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top region due to the continuous wrong policies in the United States [2] - The liquidity crunch is the core factor driving the stock market decline, and further decline may lead to "mechanical" selling [1] - Top investors are taking a more cautious stance on high - valuation tech stocks due to rising systemic risks [1] - The importance of retail investors in the US stock market, especially in the options market, is increasing [1][2] - AI and robotics are considered the only way to get rid of the debt crisis and prevent US bankruptcy [1] - AI may lead to a slowdown in corporate recruitment and a "quiet period" in the labor market [1] - The loose financial environment supporting the AI boom is reaching an inflection point [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economy and Finance - Morgan Chase believes the liquidity crunch drives the stock market decline, and further drops may trigger "mechanical" selling [1] - Billionaire Peter Thiel's fund, Bridgewater, and SoftBank have reduced their holdings in NVIDIA, and top investors are cautious about high - valuation tech stocks [1] - Retail investors are among the largest net buyers of the US stock market this year, and their trading volume in the options market has exceeded that of institutions [1][2] - Musk thinks AI and robotics are the only way to avoid US bankruptcy due to unsustainable federal debt growth [1] - US White House economic advisor Hasset says AI boosts labor productivity but may slow corporate recruitment [1] - Amazon raised $15 billion through bond issuance, and the total bond issuance of four major tech giants in the past two months exceeded $80 billion. The financial environment supporting the AI boom is changing [1] - UBS's chairman discussed the possibility of relocating its headquarters to the US due to Switzerland's capital requirements [1] - India's October goods trade deficit hit a record high of $41.7 billion due to increased gold imports and high - tariff impacts on US exports [1] Global Economic Logic - The end of the US government shutdown will inject trillions of dollars from the US Treasury's general account into the market [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - Huawei announced "ten major inventions" in computing power infrastructure and storage [2] - Goldman Sachs CEO is optimistic about the Hong Kong and mainland China stock markets [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that at least $5 trillion is needed for the AI data center construction boom in the next five years [2] - US data center electricity demand is rising, and a 44 - gigawatt power gap is expected by 2028 [2] - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic are almost exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2] - US corporate layoffs in October reached 153,074, mainly in the technology and warehousing industries, a significant increase from September and almost three times that of last year [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "Oscillating" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of bottle chips is expected to oscillate in the short - term with the main contract reference range of 5630 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Market Conditions - On the night of Tuesday, the main price of bottle chips dropped 28 yuan to 5706 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell 10 yuan to 5735 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips dropped 20 yuan to 5780 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 763 lots to 5.68 million lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 609 lots to 5.7 million lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, China's polyester bottle chip production was 33.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.69 million tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate was 72.5%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%. The production cost was 5271 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 37 yuan/ton, and the weekly production gross profit was - 128 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China exported 46.77 million tons of polyester bottle chips, 5.3 million tons less than the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 480.91 million tons [1] - Due to the instability of the Russia - Ukraine situation and potential risks from US sanctions, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures December contract rose 0.83 dollars/barrel to 60.74 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.39%. The ICE Brent oil futures January contract rose 0.69 dollars/barrel to 64.89 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. China's INE crude oil futures 2601 contract rose 1.5 to 462.3 yuan/ton, and rose 3.4 to 465.7 yuan/ton at night [1] - The end of the US government shutdown, hawkish statements from Fed officials, and the uncertainty of the December FOMC meeting have suppressed the temporarily warming market sentiment [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips has changed little. Downstream factories mainly replenish inventory rigidly, and the market has a cautious expectation for future demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in September. Affected by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber and polyester industry, the price soared. Although the relaxation of Indian policies is beneficial to polyester products, the impact on bottle chips is limited. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [1]

早盘提示 Morning session notice | 超大规模云厂商是主要参与者。英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋表示，中国将赢得人工智能竞赛， | | --- | | 他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。高盛 CEO 对中国 | | 香港和中国内地股市给出了乐观的预期，随着全球估值的上升，许多中国股票看起 | | 来"非常有吸引力"。 | | 【后市展望】 | | 受外部市场走势低迷影响，周二两市主要指数继续走弱。今年前三个季度，保险机 | | 构的股票直投的规模比年初新增约 1.19 万亿元，增幅接近五成。保险资金运用余 | | 额的增加值 4 万亿元，则可发现，险资将今年新增资金规模的超三分之一，投向了 | | 股票—其中主要应该是 A 股股票。英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智能竞赛， | | 他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。瑞银投资银行中 | | 国股票策略研究主管在 2026 年展望报告中指出，预计中国股市将迎来又一个丰年， | | 因包括创新领域发展等许多有利的驱动因素将继续支撑市场。高盛指出，从中国本 | | 土来看，中国资本向股票的结构性迁 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1210.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1710.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 2.43%。昨日夜盘，Jm2601 收于 1167.0，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘下跌 3.55%；J2601 合约收于 1657.5，环比日盘收盘下跌 3.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中钢协数据显示，2025 年 10 月，全国生产粗钢 7200 万吨、同比下降 12.1%，日产 | | | | | 232.26 万吨/日，环比下降 5.2%；重点统计钢铁企业共生产粗钢 6369.16 万吨，同比下 | | | | | 降 6.7%，日产 205.46 万吨，环比增长 1.9%。 | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 偏空 | 2、据国家能源集团，2025 年前 10 个月，国家能源 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 18 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.20%报 4045.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.25%报 50.05 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.04%报 931.24 元/克，沪银跌 0.17%报 11983 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 11 月 17 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 2.57 吨，当前持仓量为 1041.43 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日持平，当前持仓量为 15218.42 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 12 月降息 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，下午收盘2601合约涨跌幅0%，收于2182元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，昨日深加工企业收购价小幅上调。东北地区深加工企 | | | | | 业收购价2033元/吨，较上周五涨15元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2248元/吨， | | | | | 较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格小幅上涨。昨日锦州港15%水二等新 | | | | | 季玉米收购价2170-2180元/吨左右，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港成交价2345元/吨 | | | | | ，较上周五涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、17日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0张，共计69337张。 | | | 玉米 | 低多 | 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至11月17日，山东地区小麦-玉 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Upgrade PLS to Overweight, MIN, IGO, LTR to Neutral [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for energy storage systems (ESS) will lead the market into a deficit, and short - term and long - term prices are upgraded [1] - In 2026, the supply - demand pattern of battery production will improve, and the potential for price increase will emerge. The explosion of ESS demand and supply disruptions of Chinese lithium mines jointly drive up lithium prices and industry prosperity [7] - Currently, the demand expectation for lithium carbonate is intensifying. With strong reality and strong expectation, the price of lithium carbonate has risen significantly and is expected to remain strong above 90,000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summaries According to Related Information Information about Lithium Carbonate Demand and Supply in 2025 and 2026 - In 2025, the global demand for lithium carbonate is estimated to be 155 tons, while the supply capacity is over 170 tons, resulting in an excess of about 20 tons and low prices this year [6] - In 2026, the demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow by 30% to 190 tons, and the supply capacity is estimated to increase by about 25 tons, with a basically balanced supply - demand situation and potential for price increase [6] Information about Lithium Carbonate Price Changes - On November 16, the market's bullish sentiment fermented after the statement of Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, and the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 90,000 yuan/ton, rising to 93,800 yuan/ton with a 7.47% increase [7] - If the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate in 2026 exceeds 30% or even reaches 40%, the price may break through 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [6] Information about the Market Outlook - The resumption of production at Xiawo will partially ease market tension but is difficult to change the trend of the supply - demand gap [7]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 11 月 17 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | 铁矿: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Report on Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance Data - In November, the customs clearance vehicles at Ganqimao Port remained at a high level. As of November 15th, the average daily customs clearance vehicles were 1382, and on the 15th, the customs clearance vehicles increased significantly to 1659 per day [3] - The table shows the customs clearance data from October 28, 2025, to November 15, 2025, including the number of customs clearance vehicles, AGV numbers, total customs clearance vehicles, changes, and short - haul freight rates. The short - haul freight rate remained at 90 during this period [6]