格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二夜盘主力合约期货 | BZ2603 | 价格上涨 | 98 | 元至 | 6137 | 元/吨，华东主流地区现货价 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 格 | 6065 | 元/吨（环比+75），山东地区现货价格 | 6118 | 元/吨（环比-17）。持仓方面， | 多头减少 | 1504 | 手至 ...

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 19 元至 1770 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1770 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 13421 手至 23.1 万手，空头持仓减少 7190 手至 24.5 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 少 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 21.11 万吨，较上一工作日持平；较去年同期增加 1.63 万吨；今日开工率 89.66%，较去年同期 87.01%回升 2.65%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 94.49 万吨，较上周减少 0.11 万吨，环比减 0.12%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比持平。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 41.3%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工率 66.4%，环比+2.8%。 4、1 月 2 日印度 NFL 尿素进口招标，共收到 26 个供货商，总计 362 万吨投标量， 其中东海岸 159 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 | | | 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 6.83%报 4970.50 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 10.27%报 84.92 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 4.2%报 1108.8 元/克，沪银主力合约上涨 5.93%报 | | | | | 22393 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 3 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 3.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1083.38 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 108.89 吨，当前持仓量为 16437.7 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 04 日星期三 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.09%，收于2263 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价小幅下跌。东北地区深加工 | | | | | 企业收购价2173元/吨，较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2305元/吨，较 | | | | | 前一日跌1元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口小幅下跌。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2270-2280元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价24 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日星期三 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二瓶片主力价格上涨 | 16 | 元至 | 6120 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6205 | 元/吨（+35）， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 华南瓶片价格 | 6275 | 元/吨（+25）。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 6518 | 手至 | 6.97 | 万手， | 空头持仓增加 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile". [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short - term. Traders are recommended to conduct band - trading operations. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Tuesday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board. By the close, the 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.10%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03%. [1] - The Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, fell in the morning session and then rose in a volatile manner. It closed 2.12% higher than the previous trading day, with a turnover of 2.57 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.61 trillion yuan. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market on Tuesday, the central bank conducted 105.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 402 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 296.5 billion yuan on the day. [1] - In the money market on Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined slightly. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.36% on the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% on the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market on Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year government bonds fell 0.80 BP to 1.38%, the 5 - year fell 0.47 BP to 1.57%, the 10 - year fell 0.28 BP to 1.82%, and the 30 - year fell 0.10 BP to 2.28%. [1] - The central bank announced that it will conduct 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations with a term of 3 months on February 4 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1] - The central bank's net investment in government bond trading in the open market in January was 100 billion yuan. [1] - The No. 1 Central Document, "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Anchoring Agricultural and Rural Modernization and Solidly Promoting Comprehensive Rural Revitalization", was released. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line (previous value: 50.1%). The new orders index in January was 49.2% (previous value: 50.8%), indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8% (previous value: 52.8%), and the business activity index of the service industry in January was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month (previous month: 49.7%). [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the protection of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year to promote a low - level operation of the comprehensive social financing cost, gradually play the role of government bond trading in liquidity management, and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. [1]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 2 月 4 日星期周三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 | 月 3 日，贵金属企稳，大宗商品整体获得支撑，植物油板块止跌回稳定，棕榈油 和菜籽油抗跌，豆油跌幅收窄。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8086 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.07%，日减仓 | | | | | 31478 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8030 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.02%，日增 | | | | | 仓 4275 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 9094 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.89%，日减 | | | | | 仓 35 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 9040 元/吨，按收盘价日环比上涨 0.92%，日减仓 | | | | ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、 工业金属等大类资产产生颠覆式深远影响。 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 4 日 星期三 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 沃什的降息+缩表组合，表明美联储货币政策将重大转向，将对权益类资产产 生强烈的流动性收缩预期。 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、特朗普明确表态，要求对美联储主席鲍威尔的刑事调查"进行到底"。市场担 | | | | | 忧，特朗普对鲍威尔的穷追猛打，可能导致沃什无法顺利接任联储主席一职。此前 | | | | | 共和党参议员 Thom Tillis 警告，"不停止调查就阻挠新美联储主席提名"。 | | | | | 2、对冲基金疯狂逃离软件股，私募股权板块遭遇抛售潮。巴克莱警告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices are expected to remain oscillating, with supply pressure limiting the rebound height. The reference range for the 05 contract is between 1740 - 1840 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - On Monday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped 11 yuan to 1787 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1770 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings increased by 7395 lots to 218,000 lots, while short - position holdings decreased by 1995 lots to 239,000 lots [1] 3.2. Important Information 3.2.1. Supply - The daily production of the urea industry is 21.11 tons, unchanged from the previous working day and an increase of 1.63 tons compared to the same period last year. The daily operating rate is 89.66%, a 2.65% increase from 87.01% in the same period last year [1] 3.2.2. Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 94.49 tons, a decrease of 0.11 tons from last week, a 0.12% decrease month - on - month. The sample inventory at urea ports is 13.4 tons, unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2.3. Demand - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 41.3%, a 1.6% decrease month - on - month, and the operating rate of melamine is 66.4%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [1] 3.2.4. Tendering and Import - Export - On January 2, NFL in India held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total tender volume of 362 tons, including 159 tons on the east coast and 202 tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes from Koch were CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast. In December 2025, urea imports were 35.39 tons, an 82.11% decrease month - on - month, and the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a 52.11% decrease month - on - month. Urea exports were 27.83 tons, a 53.75% decrease month - on - month, and the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a 56.64% decrease month - on - month [1] 3.2.5. Oil Price - The US and Iran are keeping dialogue and consultation options, alleviating concerns about supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, leading to a fall in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.21 dollars/barrel to 65.21 dollars/barrel, a 0.32% decrease month - on - month; the ICE Brent oil futures 03 contract dropped 0.02 dollars/barrel to 70.69 dollars/barrel, a 0.03% decrease month - on - month. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 15.9 to 482.9 yuan/barrel, and then fell 12.9 to 470 yuan/barrel at night [1] 3.3. Market Logic - Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1700 - 1750 yuan/ton. New orders of urea factories were well - pre - sold, but high - price transactions significantly weakened. Supply pressure limits the rebound height of urea prices [1] 3.4. Trading Strategy - The recommendation is to wait and see for the time being [1]

Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 3 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 ，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | -- ...