更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 合同量为 | 402.1 | 万吨，较上周的 | 551.0 | 万吨减少 | 148.9 | 万吨，环比下降 | 27.02%。国内进口压 | 榨菜粕库存量为 | 1.7 | 万吨，较上周的 | 1.7 | 万吨持平，环比持平；合同量为 | 2.8 | 万吨，较上周 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 的 | 2.5 | 万吨增加 | 0.3 | 万吨，环比增加 | 12.00%。 | 7、东莞中粮开始预售明年一季度澳洲菜粕。同时市场不断传出枫叶、益海、澳加获批澳籽 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基因证书，核实后消息 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情复盘] - The price of the PR2512 contract of bottle chips rose by 2 yuan to 5,728 yuan/ton yesterday. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell by 10 yuan to 5,820 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3,563 lots to 50,500 lots, and short positions increased by 5,075 lots to 49,300 lots [1]. [重要资讯] - **Supply, cost, and profit**: The domestic polyester bottle chip output was 331,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,300 tons. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.5%, a week - on - week increase of 4.4%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,351 yuan, an increase of 14.2 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 185 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1]. - **Crude oil prices**: After the cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel, the international oil prices fell. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 dropped by 1.04 dollars/barrel to 61.51 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 12 dropped by 1.03 dollars/barrel to 65.22 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55%. The INE crude oil futures contract 2511 dropped by 11.8 to 468.7 yuan/barrel, and dropped by 4.5 to 464.2 yuan/barrel at night [1]. - **Economic outlook**: The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 would be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 would slow down to 2.9%, the same as the forecast in June [1]. [市场逻辑] - After the holiday, the supply of bottle chips increased, downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly, and the market was cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased in August. With the decline of crude oil prices at night, the price of bottle chips fluctuated weakly following the raw material end, and the reference range of the main contract was 5,650 - 5,850 yuan/ton [1]. [交易策略] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or sell short on rallies [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log sector in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend, with the average price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions increasing by 10 yuan/cubic meter compared to before the holiday. The log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month, with a significant trend of concentrated arrivals. Although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation in demand. The overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets. The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price corrected, and the closing price of the main 2511 contract was 828.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.41% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan/cubic meter from the previous week. As of August 15th, the weekly arrival volume of domestic coniferous logs was 339,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 166,500 cubic meters from the previous week. The average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 63,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 900 cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log spot market shows a regional upward trend. The supply side indicates that the log arrival volume last week is expected to increase by 550,500 cubic meters month - on - month. In terms of demand, although it is during the holiday, most processing plants maintain normal production, but there is regional differentiation. The inventory data shows that the overall inventory of coniferous logs decreased by 60,000 cubic meters in the week of September 26th, and the market still maintains an inverted price pattern between the domestic and foreign markets [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract is expected to fluctuate [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond sector is "oscillating" for TL, T, TF, and TS [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - On Thursday, the overnight inter - bank funding rate declined compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - On Thursday, most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] - On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan. Bond futures closed higher across the board without being affected by the stock market, and are expected to oscillate in the short term [2] - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of bond futures opened lower across the board, with the 30 - year bond futures showing strong performance. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.46%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.15%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher on Thursday, fluctuated narrowly after a rally, and closed with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.67 trillion yuan, larger than the previous trading day's 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - The central bank conducted 612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1.1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on Thursday, with 2.0633 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 351.3 billion yuan [1] - The overnight inter - bank funding rate declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.33% for the day, down from 1.39% the previous day; DR007 had a weighted average of 1.51%, up from 1.44% the previous day [1] - Most of the closing yields of inter - bank bond cash bonds declined on Thursday compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year bond yield fell 0.77 basis points to 1.49%, the 5 - year fell 0.57 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 1.39 basis points to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.68 basis points to 2.26% [1] - During the 2025 National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the cumulative cross - regional passenger flow reached 2.433 billion person - times, with a daily average of 304 million person - times, a 6.3% year - on - year increase compared to the same period in 2024, setting a new record [1] - During the 8 - day National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holiday, the number of domestic trips reached 888 million person - times, an increase of 123 million person - times compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024; domestic tourism spending reached 809.006 billion yuan, an increase of 108.189 billion yuan compared to the 7 - day National Day holiday in 2024 [1] - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs issued four announcements to implement export controls on related items such as super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, some medium - heavy rare earths, lithium batteries, and artificial graphite anode materials [1] Market Logic - China's official manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the sixth consecutive month. The new order index in September was 49.7%, still below the boom - bust line. The construction business activity index in September was 49.3%, and the service business activity index was 50.1%, showing a mild expansion, while the new order index for the service industry declined [2] - The central bank governor stated that China's monetary policy adheres to a domestic - oriented approach and balances domestic and international factors, and will use various monetary policy tools to ensure sufficient liquidity [2] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, use a band - trading strategy [2]

Morning session notice 重要事项: 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1164.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 3.37%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收于 1654.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.91%。夜盘焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 | 5 | 元至 | 2293 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价格下 | | | | | | | | | | 跌 | 29 | 元至 | 2213 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 80184 | 手至 | 61.4 | 万手，多头持仓 | 增加 | 92365 | 手至 | 74.99 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 82.5%，环比+2.6%。海外甲醇开工率 | 67.9%，环比-4.2%。 | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、库存方面，中中国甲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials sector is "oscillation" [3] Report's Core View - After the holiday, iron ore prices rose on the first trading day and continued to rise at night. The supply of iron ore arrivals increased, and the iron - water output showed signs of peaking. Although the market expected steel mills to have concentrated restocking demand, the impact was relatively short - lived. It is recommended to maintain short - term long positions in iron ore trading and set stop - losses [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore closed higher on the first trading day after the holiday and continued to rise at night [3] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on governing price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market price order, guiding industry associations to assess average industry costs [3] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 863,310 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,760 tons (0.4%); the total inventory was 1.60072 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 127,860 tons (8.7%); the weekly consumption was 751,430 tons, with building material consumption down 32.8% and plate consumption down 7.8% week - on - week [3] - New York Fed President Williams supported further interest rate cuts in 2025 to address potential sharp slowdown risks in the labor market [3] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged in September, gave a moderately optimistic assessment of the euro - zone economy, and implied a high threshold for further policy easing [3] Market Logic - The arrival volume of iron ore increased, showing an increasing trend on the supply side. The iron - water output showed signs of peaking. The market expected steel mills to have concentrated restocking demand, but the impact was relatively short - lived [3] Trading Strategy - Continue to maintain short - term long positions in iron ore and set stop - losses [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "long (slightly bullish)" rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward direction, with China implementing an AI+ initiative, becoming the preferred stock investment market, and international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector. Meanwhile, the AI field is witnessing large - scale infrastructure investments and developments [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Sam Altman reveals that OpenAI will make more aggressive infrastructure bets in the next few months, with a "cross - shareholding" model forming an "AI closed - loop economy" [1] - NVIDIA CEO says AI is intelligent enough, and the market is in two exponential growth stages, at the start of a new round of infrastructure construction and industrial revolution [1] - xAI is raising more funds than initially planned, with a total of $20 billion in the ongoing financing round, including NVIDIA's equity investment [1] - Alibaba has established a "robot and embodied AI group", and multi - modal basic models are being transformed into basic agents for real - world applications [1] - Japanese major brokerages are raising their year - end targets for the Nikkei 225 index due to expected economic stimulus plans [1] - In August, the new high of gold was mainly driven by financial investment participants, and the pricing logic shifted from "de - dollarization" to interest - rate cut expectations [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements an AI+ initiative, becoming the preferred stock investment market for 100 surveyed institutions managing $423 billion in emerging - market assets. International capital is actively increasing positions in China's technology sector [1] - OpenAI will make more infrastructure bets, Huawei's Ascend chips are leading, OpenAI promises to buy $6 billion worth of AMD chips, Samsung and Hynix join the Stargate, and Alibaba is promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists, pressuring egg prices to decline, with prices in some regions dropping to feed costs. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - In the long term, the continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait patiently for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive the capacity - reduction process [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market News - During the holiday, egg prices fell unexpectedly, and the futures market opened with a significant gap down [1]. Spot Performance - During the holiday, the strong supply and weak demand in the egg market pressured egg prices to drop significantly. On October 8, the price of Hebei Guantao pink eggs was 2.49 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.35 yuan per jin compared to September 30 [3]. Futures Performance - Today, the near - month contract of egg futures opened with a significant gap down. The 2511 contract opened at 2890 yuan per 500 kg, a decline of 4.24%. As of the time of writing, the market was at 2902 yuan per 500 kg, while the far - month contracts were relatively stable [3]. Analysis Logic - Short - to - medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand continues, and egg prices are under pressure to decline, with some areas reaching feed costs. Focus on the intensity and scale of hen culling driven by low prices [3]. - Long term: The continuous increase in egg - laying hen farming scale may lengthen the price bottom cycle. Wait for the over - culling in the farming sector to drive capacity reduction [3]. Trading Strategy - Before the holiday, it was continuously suggested to maintain a short - selling strategy until large - scale concentrated hen culling occurs, and it was recommended to hold previous short positions. - Currently, the Hebei spot price has fallen below 2.5 yuan per jin. It was suggested in today's morning report that the market might open with a gap down, and previous short positions can continue to be held. It is recommended to consider gradually taking profits on dips [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects U.S. oil production to reach a new high this year, exceeding previous expectations, and warns that an oil supply surplus in the coming months will put pressure on oil prices. The agency has also raised its global oil production forecast due to higher - than - expected non - OPEC oil production growth this year and next [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Data Inventory Data - As of the week ending October 3, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 827.246 million barrels, an increase of 4 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 420.261 million barrels, an increase of 3.715 million barrels from the previous week; U.S. gasoline inventory was 219.093 million barrels, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels from the previous week; distillate inventory was 121.559 million barrels, a decrease of 2.018 million barrels from the previous week [1][2] - Commercial crude oil inventory was 0.59% lower than the same period last year and 4% lower than the five - year average; gasoline inventory was 1.95% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the five - year average; distillate inventory was 2.57% higher than the same period last year and 6% lower than the five - year average [1] Other Operational Data - The U.S. refinery utilization rate was 92.4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous week, with a growth rate of 1.09% [2] - U.S. crude oil production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 124 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 0.92% [2] - U.S. crude oil imports were 6,403 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 570 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a growth rate of 9.77% [2] - U.S. crude oil exports were 3,590 thousand barrels per day, a decrease of 161 thousand barrels per day from the previous week, with a decline rate of 4.29% [2]