Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a “downward” rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the consecutive wrong policies of the United States [4] - The United States' return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound and subversive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US bonds, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Contents Global Economic News - BofA's Hartnett believes the current biggest risk comes from the rapid appreciation of the Japanese yen, South Korean won, and New Taiwan dollar, which may reverse Asian capital outflows and threaten the global market's liquidity environment. He is bullish on the long - term prospects of international stocks and gold, with China being his most favored market, and predicts that gold may break through $6,000 [1] - UBS states that the expansion basis of the US economy is rapidly narrowing, with almost all marginal improvements in investment, consumption, and employment tied to the single theme of artificial intelligence. If the AI investment boom cools down, the US economy will quickly lose its core support, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is about 50% [1] - The US warns South Korean semiconductor companies that if they do not invest in building factories in the US, they may face a maximum 100% tariff. However, due to unstable tariff expectations and the sharp decline of the South Korean won, South Korea's finance department says large - scale investment in the US is "unlikely to start in the first half of this year" [1] - The new version Claude Opus 4.5 of Claude Code shows amazing capabilities, but its popularity has intensified the market's panic about the disruption of the software industry. A basket of SaaS stocks tracked by Morgan Stanley has fallen 15% since the beginning of the year, the worst start since 2022 [1] - EU countries are considering imposing tariffs on $93 billion worth of US goods exported to the EU or restricting US companies from entering the EU market to counter US President Trump's tariff hikes on eight European countries for the sake of Greenland. Recently, many countries participated in the "Arctic Endurance" military exercise initiated by Denmark in Greenland [1] Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as seizing Venezuela's oil and buying Greenland by force, which has led the global political order into a chaotic period and brought great uncertainty to the global economy. It has also imposed punitive tariffs on eight European countries, leading to potential tariff counter - attacks from European countries [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Nomura predicts that uncertainties related to the Fed will peak from July to November 2026, and there may be a trend of "fleeing US assets" in the market at that time [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, purchases $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, and its balance sheet has restarted expansion [2] - A Goldman Sachs analyst warns that the current downward trend in Las Vegas gambling revenue is highly similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new version of its "National Security Strategy", abandoning global hegemony and planning to adjust economic relations with China to revitalize its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified, with high - income consumers maintaining spending resilience while low - and middle - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double its AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 to 5 years to meet the rising demand for AI services [2] - TSMC estimates its capital expenditure in 2026 to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a year - on - year increase of 27% to 37%, which is expected to reach a record high. Its strong Q4 performance and 2026 revenue guidance signal the continuation of the AI boom and restore investors' confidence in AI demand resilience [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - The year-on-year comparison of 2025 data has limited significance, and attention should be paid to whether the inflection point of pig supply is confirmed. There is a possibility that the pig inventory will decline in the first quarter of 2026, and it is necessary to track the data to confirm the inflection point [12][13]. - In 2025, the contribution of pork to the supply increment was significantly enhanced, with an increase in pork production despite a decrease in pig slaughter compared to 2023 [12]. - The reduction of the sow inventory has been basically achieved, and it is expected that the sow inventory will not decline significantly in the next few months, which will limit the upward expectation of pig prices in the second half of 2026 [13][14]. - In the short term, the pig price has stopped rising and stabilized, with pressure from both supply and demand; in the medium term, the supply pressure will be relieved from April; in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced after September [17]. - In 2026, the pig price in the first quarter may rise first and then fall, the supply in the second quarter is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price in the second half of the year is expected to strengthen but with limited space [19][21][22]. Summary by Directory 1. 'Year-on-year' has limited significance, focus on whether the supply inflection point is confirmed - Comparison of 2025 and 2023 data: The annual pig inventory in 2025 increased by 0.5% year-on-year but decreased by 1.05% compared to 2023; the annual pig slaughter increased by 2.4% year-on-year but decreased by 0.1% compared to 2023; the pork production increased by 4.1% year-on-year and 2.5% compared to 2023 [12]. - Attention to the inflection point of pig supply: The pig inventory at the end of 2025 decreased by 1.63% compared to the third quarter. It is expected that the pig inventory at the end of the first quarter of 2026 may be lower than that at the end of 2025. It is necessary to track the data to confirm the inflection point [13]. - Sow inventory: The sow inventory decreased to 3961000 at the end of 2025, which is 101.6% of the normal reserve. It is expected that the sow inventory will not decline significantly in the next few months, which will limit the upward expectation of pig prices in the second half of 2026 [13][14]. 2. Review of previous report content 2026 January 19 Pig Futures Morning Report - Important information: The pig price continued to rise over the weekend due to snow and early downstream stocking. The national average pig price on the 18th was 13.17 yuan/kg, up 0.45 yuan/kg from last Friday. The sow inventory in October 2025 was 3990000. The number of new - born piglets increased from January to September 2025 (only decreased in July), and decreased in October and November, corresponding to a decrease in supply pressure from April [15]. - Market logic: In the short term, the pig price has stopped rising and stabilized; in the medium term, the supply pressure will be relieved from April; in the long term, the supply pressure will be reduced after September. Pay attention to the impact of diseases [17]. - Trading strategy: Maintain a range - trading strategy. Pay attention to the pressure and support levels of different contracts [18]. 2026 January 3 Special Report 'Key Transactions in the Pig Industry in 2026: The Expected Difference in Capacity Reduction' - First quarter of 2026: The pig price may rise first and then fall. The supply will increase before March and decrease after April. The demand has seasonal characteristics, with a weakening of the southern pickled meat consumption increment. The pig price may be low - level volatile and strong before the Spring Festival and weak after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Second quarter of 2026: The pig supply is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price may stop falling and stabilize, with an average price of 11 - 12.5 yuan/kg [21]. - Second half of 2026: The pig price is expected to strengthen but with limited space. The upward space in the third quarter depends on the impact of winter diseases, and the pig price in the fourth quarter depends on the sow inventory from December 2025 to February 2026. Pay attention to the sow inventory reduction rhythm, production efficiency, and slaughter weight [22][23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In 2025, both the production of raw coal and coke in China reached historical highs. Despite a year - on - year decrease of 5243000 tons in coal imports, the domestic raw coal production increased by 7282000 tons year - on - year [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Coal Production - In 2025, the production of raw coal by large - scale industrial enterprises was 4.83 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In December 2025, the production was 440 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%, with a daily average output of 14.1 million tons [2] Coke Production - In December 2025, the coke production was 4.274 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% and a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. From January to December, the production was 50.412 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The global rapeseed supply pattern in 2026 will shift to a looser state, with the inventory-to-consumption ratio rising, mainly driven by the increased production of rapeseed in Europe and Canada [18]. - The global soybean market in 2026 is expected to have a loose supply, with prices under downward pressure due to the record - high harvest in South America and the adjustment of China's procurement strategy [30]. - The domestic protein market in 2026 will face various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended for different time periods [35][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Sino - Canadian Trade Dispute - In 2024, Canada imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles on October 1st and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum products on October 22nd [4]. - In 2025, China counter - imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil, rapeseed meal, and peas, and a 25% tariff on aquatic products and pork on March 8th. A 75.8% temporary anti - dumping deposit on Canadian rapeseed was preliminarily ruled and implemented in August. Canadian rapeseed exports to China basically stagnated, and China sought alternative supplies from India and Russia [5]. - In 2026, Canada and China reached a preliminary trade agreement. Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles to enter at a preferential tariff rate of 6.1%. The tariff on Canadian rapeseed in China is expected to drop to about 15% by March 1st [6]. 2. China's Rapeseed Import Pattern in 2025 - The import sources have become more diversified, mainly including Canada, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia. Canada is still the largest supplier, but its import volume decreased significantly. Australia is an important supplementary source. Russia's import volume increased significantly, and Mongolia's import volume doubled [10][11]. - In the first half of 2025, the total import volume was 1.8 million tons, with Canada accounting for 94.47%. In the second half, the import volume decreased monthly due to Sino - Canadian trade policies [12]. 3. Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance in 2026 - The global rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise, and the supply pattern will become looser, mainly due to the increased production of rapeseed in Europe and Canada. The EU's rapeseed planting area and output are expected to recover, and Canada's rapeseed inventory may increase to 2.5 million tons due to policy - restricted exports. Australia's rapeseed planting area and output are expected to increase [18]. 4. Australia's Rapeseed Supply and Export - From 2021 - 2024, Australia's rapeseed output reached 8.4 million tons in 2022 and remained around 6 million tons in other years. From 2021 - 2022, its export volume was between 5 - 6 million tons. Domestic consumption has decreased significantly since 2022, and most are for export [26]. 5. Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance in 2026 - The global soybean market is expected to have a loose supply, and prices will face downward pressure. South America's bumper harvest will offset the US's production decline, and global inventory is expected to start destocking. The US will increase its soybean planting area by 4% in 2026, while the corn planting area will decrease by 3.8%. China's soybean procurement strategy will be diversified, and the procurement volume of US soybeans is expected to shrink to 8 - 9 million tons [30]. - In China, the state - reserve imported soybeans were auctioned continuously in 2024. In 2025, the import volume remained high, and the supply was sufficient [31]. 6. Outlook for the Domestic Protein Market in 2026 - There are macro risks such as Sino - US disputes and geopolitical situations. Fundamentally, there are factors such as the expected change in US soybean planting area, good weather, large supply from Brazil, sufficient domestic soybean reserves, stable demand from livestock farming, price - competitive alternative proteins, and the return of Canadian rapeseed [35]. - Different trading strategies are recommended for different time periods: from December 2025 to March 2026, prepare in advance due to tightened customs policies; from April to June 2026, focus on market trends and avoid buying basis; from July to September 2026, buy on dips; from October to December 2026, make decisions after the third - quarter market [35][36].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 上周锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5828 元/吨，周跌幅 2.28%。硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5570 元/吨，周跌幅 1.94%。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、根据中国人民银行公告，自 1 月 19 日起，再贷款、再贴现利率下调 0.25 个百分点。 | | | | | 2、当地时间 1 月 17 日，美国总统特朗普通过社交平台称，因（丹麦自治领地）格陵兰 | | | | | 岛问题，自今年 2 月 1 日起，丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰向美 | | | | | 国出口的所有商品都将被加征 10%的关税。到今年 6 月 1 日，关税将提高至 25%。。 | | | | | 3、2025 年我国全社会用电量历史性突破 10 万亿千瓦时，达到 10.4 万亿千瓦时，同比 | | | | | 增长 5%。这一数字在全球单一国家中尚属首次，相当于美国全年用电量的两倍多，超过 | | | ...

格林大华期货研究院专题报告 期货研究院 能源化工 2026年1月19日 | 能源化工研究员： | 吴志桥 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3085283 | | 交易咨询证号： | Z0019267 | | 联系方式： | wuzhiqiao@greendh | | | .com | 2025年我国用电量创新高，能化板块影响几何 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 摘要： 成文时间：2026年1月19日星期一 国家能源局17日宣布，2025年我国全社会用电量历史性突破10万 亿千瓦时，达到10.4万亿千瓦时，同比增长5%。这一数字在全球单一 国家中尚属首次，相当于美国全年用电量的两倍多，超过欧盟、俄罗 斯、印度、日本四个经济体的年用电量总和。电力是经济运行的"血 液"，用电量持续增长直接反映了我国工业生产、居民消费和新兴产 业的活跃程度，5%的同比增速也印证了经济稳中向好的态势。 由于我国电解铝、化工等行业用电量占比高，特别是当市场可流 通煤资源偏紧的背景下，化工行业用电量增加，表明行业生产开工率 进一步提升，企业生产经营活跃度提升。同时也侧面反映 ...

> 2026年1月18日（周日）15时03分,包钢板材厂炼钢作 业部一 650立方米饱和水、蒸汽球罐发生爆炸,截至1月 19日官方通报,事故已致2人死亡、8人失联、84人受伤。 市场快讯 -- 包钢事故,可能短期利多盘面 2026年1月19日 免责声明，本投音中的信息均来源于必开资料，救公司坑这些信息的波朗业及竞整还不住在何保证，不保证报告信息已教最新交亮，也不保证外版网做出的年间建议不会发生任何变更，在任何情况下，很告中的信息或所志比的意见，不必成优 赌艇品和买卖的出炉或角价。在任何情况下、我公司不错报告中的任何内容对任何投资所划出任何形式的担保，投资者推出投资，投资网站自我承担。我公司可能发出与本报告意见不一致的其地报告。本报告反映分析师本人的意见与货论， 代表我公司的立场。未经我公司同意，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制或对本报告进行有悼原意的删节和修改。 数据来源：文华财经 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可 2011 1288号 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询： Z0011402 联系电话（010）56711796 橙林大华期货有限公司 GELIN DAHUA FUTUR ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton industry in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - ICE U.S. cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main contract 03 settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral - positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then pulled back. Although downstream textile enterprises are facing the Spring Festival holiday, due to the expected limited pull - back during the new capacity release stage and the expectation of tight supply after the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton generally maintains a bullish outlook [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - ICE March contract settled at 64.66, down 5 points; May at 66.23, down 4 points; July at 67.65, down 4 points, with about 33,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 404,268 and an open interest of 1,158,946. The settlement prices were 14,710 for January, 14,640 for May, and 14,790 for September [2]. Important Information - In November, Bangladesh imported about 121,000 tons of cotton, a 9.6% increase from October (110,000 tons) and a 4.8% increase year - on - year (116,000 tons). Brazilian cotton accounted for 27% of total imports, West African cotton 26%, and Indian cotton 21% [2]. - As of the week of January 10, Egyptian cotton net export contracts were 3,783 tons, a significant increase from the previous week (1,075 tons). New contracts mainly came from China (2,427 tons) and India (853 tons). The shipment volume was 25 tons, a significant decrease from the previous week (1,651 tons). The average price of Giza 94 new cotton was 146 cents/pound, up 1 cent/pound from the previous week [2]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Pakistan have been cool and dry. The winter rainfall is still below the average. Sporadic seed cotton is continuously transported to ginning mills. The total output of new cotton in Pakistan is expected to be between 1.085 and 1.124 million tons. The price of seed cotton is stable, ranging from 6,500 to 8,200 rupees per 40 kilograms depending on the quality [2]. - According to the USDA's January 2026 U.S. cotton supply - demand forecast report, the planting area in the U.S. in 2025/26 is 56.345 million mu, a decrease of 82,000 mu from the previous month. Due to the abandonment rate dropping to 15.9% (a decrease of 4.8 percentage points), the harvested area increased to 47.376 million mu, an increase of 2.647 million mu from the previous month. The expected yield per mu is 64 kg, a decrease of 5.5 kg from the previous month. The expected output is 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons. The expected consumption is 348,000 tons, with a decrease of 5.9% from the previous month. The expected export volume is 2.656 million tons, the same as the previous month. The ending inventory decreased by 65,000 tons to 914,000 tons [2]. Market Logic - ICE U.S. cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main 03 contract settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral - positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. Zhengzhou cotton rose and then pulled back. Although downstream textile enterprises are facing the Spring Festival holiday, due to the expected limited pull - back during the new capacity release stage and the expectation of tight supply after the holiday, Zhengzhou cotton generally maintains a bullish outlook [2]. Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan/ton and set a profit - taking target at 15,000 yuan/ton [2].

Group 1 - The investment rating of the steel industry in the report is "volatile" [1] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that after the previous upward movement, rebar has entered a consolidation phase again. The further loosening of monetary policy is beneficial to commodities. The steel mill accident in Baotou over the weekend may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production suspensions in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of steel have both declined, with a slight decline in rebar production and inventory, an increase in hot-rolled coil production, and a slight decline in inventory. The apparent demand has increased month-on-month. Project demand remains stable, overall market transactions are okay, merchants have a good attitude, and are relatively optimistic about the future market. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent. Due to the impact of the accident, steel prices may strengthen in the short term, and short - buying can be attempted, but the sustainability is expected to be weak [1] Group 3 Market Review - Rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher on Friday and lower in the night session [1] Important Information - Six departments issued the Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Spent Power Batteries from New Energy Vehicles [1] - In December 2025, 23,095 excavators of various types were sold, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Among them, domestic sales were 10,331 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%; exports were 12,764 units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17%. Among them, domestic sales were 118,518 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.9%; exports were 116,739 units, a year - on - year increase of 16.1% [1] - Beijing will start 160 major projects in the first quarter, with a total investment of about 518.8 billion yuan [1] - In 2025, China's automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. Among them, new energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, a year - on - year doubling, becoming the core engine driving growth [1] - Since January 19, the rediscount rate and relending rate have been lowered by 0.25 percentage points [1] - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points from the previous week; the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points from the previous week; the daily average pig iron output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from the previous week [1] Market Logic - After the previous upward movement, rebar has entered a consolidation phase again. The further loosening of monetary policy is beneficial to commodities. The steel mill accident in Baotou over the weekend may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production suspensions in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. Fundamentally, the production and inventory of steel have both declined, with a slight decline in rebar production and inventory, an increase in hot-rolled coil production, and a slight decline in inventory. The apparent demand has increased month-on-month. Project demand remains stable, overall market transactions are okay, merchants have a good attitude, and are relatively optimistic about the future market. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the impact of the accident, steel prices may strengthen in the short term, and short - buying can be attempted, but the sustainability is expected to be weak. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3000, and the resistance level is 3200 [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore in the black building materials industry is bullish [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The iron ore market had a decline on Friday and in the night session. The monetary policy is further relaxed, which is beneficial to commodities. The steel - mill accident in Baotou over the weekend may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production halts in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. However, from an industrial perspective, the supply of iron ore has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has risen. The steel - mill accident may drive the iron ore price to strengthen in the short - term, but the sustainability is weak [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - The iron ore closed down on Friday and in the night session [1] 2. Important News - Six departments issued the Interim Measures for the Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Spent Power Batteries of New - energy Vehicles [1] - In December 2025, 23,095 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Domestic sales were 10,331 units, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%, and exports were 12,764 units, a year - on - year increase of 26.9%. In 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 17% [1] - Beijing will start 160 major projects in the first quarter with a total investment of about 518.8 billion yuan [1] - In 2025, China's automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. New - energy vehicle exports were 2.615 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [1] - Last week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore of domestic steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons [1] - Last week, the daily average coke output of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country was 500,100 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the coke inventory was 406,100 tons, a decrease of 35,600 tons; the total coking coal inventory was 9.5483 million tons, an increase of 428,700 tons [1] 3. Market Logic - The monetary policy is further relaxed, which is beneficial to commodities. The steel - mill accident may trigger expectations of safety inspections and production halts in the steel industry, which is positive for the market. In terms of industry, the total arrival of iron ore has increased this period, and shipments have decreased seasonally. Domestic iron ore production has increased, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports has continued to accumulate. The daily average hot - metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35,300 tons. Overall, supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has increased [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Affected by the steel - mill accident, the iron ore may strengthen in the short - term, but the sustainability is weak. It is recommended to try short - term long positions. The support level for the main contract is 800, and the resistance level is 844 [1]