1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, the U.S. biofuel policy has boosted global vegetable oil prices, but the operation difficulty has increased and no trend direction has formed yet. In the long - term, a bullish mindset of buying on dips is appropriate for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [1][2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the overall weak pattern of Zhengzhou meal has not changed. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contract [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 16, the U.S. biofuel policy offset the negative impact of Indonesia canceling B50, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened again. Rapeseed oil had the largest increase. For example, the closing price of the rapeseed oil main contract OI2605 was 9063 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.66% and a daily increase in positions of 10,800 lots [1]. Important Information - On January 16, NYMEX crude oil futures rose, but in the short - term, the trend is still dominated by geopolitical risks, and in the long - term, weak fundamentals will limit the upside space [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the U.S. EPA is considering setting the biodiesel usage in 2026 between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9% [1]. - From January 1 - 10 in Malaysia, palm oil exports increased by 29.2% compared with the same period in December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared with 2025 [1][2]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 4.67% week - on - week, with different changes in the inventory of each oil type [2]. Market Logic - In the external market, the easing of the U.S. - Iran situation pressured international crude oil, but the U.S. biofuel quota approval boosted U.S. soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil was affected by multiple factors and finally recovered its decline [2]. - In the domestic market, for soybean oil, there are both positive and negative news, and the Spring Festival stocking is ongoing; for palm oil, the import profit has recovered and the inventory is increasing; for rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market but then exited due to the approaching of the bottom support [2]. Trading Strategy - For one - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oils, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference should be exited [2]. Two - Meal Sector (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Review - On January 16, the "buy - oil sell - meal" strategy and the commodity market cooled down, and the two - meal prices oscillated downward. For example, the closing price of the soybean meal main contract M2605 was 2727 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.47% and a daily increase in positions of 4054 lots [2][3]. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully successful, and most of them had a premium [3]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, and there were corresponding changes in other aspects such as crushing volume and ending inventory [3]. - StoneX predicted that the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production might reach 178.9 million tons [3]. - As of January 9, the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, higher than the same period last year and the five - year average [3]. - As of December 30, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress was 82%, and the growth situation was good [3]. - ANEC estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in January 2026 would be 3.73 million tons, a significant increase compared with the same period last year [3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, and the soybean meal inventory decreased [3]. - The auction of imported soybeans on January 13 was fully successful, with specific details such as base price, transaction price, and delivery date [3]. Market Logic - In the external market, the U.S. new - year biofuel use plan boosted U.S. soybeans. In the domestic market, multiple factors pressured the futures market, but the spot market was active, and the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to turn from tight to loose [4]. Trading Strategy - For the two - meal 05 contract, maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset for medium - term trading and conduct intraday trading. Gradually arrange short positions for the 09 contract. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for each contract [4]. - For arbitrage, no strategy is provided currently [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating Bullish" [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term price of pure benzene will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5480 - 5750 yuan/ton. The follow - up focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction price of the US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market. It is recommended to choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 rose 63 yuan to 5694 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5530 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5430 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan month - on - month). The number of long positions increased by 809 to 21,400 hands, and the number of short positions decreased by 381 to 25,900 hands [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival was about 36,000 tons and the pickup was about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the phenol operating rate was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the caprolactam operating rate was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the aniline operating rate was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the adipic acid operating rate was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam factories started self - disciplined production cuts, and there was an expected decrease in pure benzene demand in December and January [2] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import amount was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [2] - Oil Price: Due to the instability of the geopolitical situation and some traders' bargain - hunting, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.25 US dollars to 59.44 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.37 US dollars to 64.13 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 12.7 to 439.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 446.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - The geopolitical tension in the Middle East has not been completely eliminated, and crude oil prices rose on Friday. The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports continued to accumulate last week, while the operating rate of downstream products on the demand side increased [2] Trading Strategy - Choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond futures is "volatile" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored. Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower, rose unilaterally in the morning session, and fluctuated narrowly horizontally in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.09%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.03% [1] - On Friday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly higher, then fell back to the previous closing level and fluctuated narrowly until the close. It closed down 0.17% from the previous trading day, forming a small negative line. The trading volume was 3.06 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 2.94 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 86.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 34 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 52.7 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% for the whole day, compared with 1.37% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.44% for the whole day, compared with 1.50% in the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds fell 1.98 basis points to 1.40%, the 5 - year fell 1.81 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 1.20 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.22 basis points to 2.30% [1] - On January 16, the State Council executive meeting pointed out that it is necessary to implement a special action to boost consumption, release the integrated effect of policies, combine people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, enhance residents' endogenous consumption power, and play the fundamental role of consumption in driving economic growth. It also mentioned accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, supporting new business forms, models and scenarios, increasing the supply of high - quality services, and improving the long - term mechanism for promoting consumption [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In December, the social financing scale increased by 2.2075 trillion yuan, with a market expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan. The RMB loans in the credit caliber increased by 910 billion yuan, with a market expectation of 680 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 80 billion yuan. Both the social financing and credit data in December were better than market expectations [1][2] - At the end of December, M2 increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with a market expectation of 7.9%; M1 increased by 3.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. China's export amount in December denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, better than the estimated 2.2%. China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month - on - month in December, and PPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, indicating a mild recovery in inflation [1][2] - The central bank announced that starting from January 19, 2026, it will lower the re - loan and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band - trading operations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to factors such as ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle - East, significant destocking of port methanol last week, expected reduction in imported arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans for olefin plants. It is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations, with the 05 contract having a reference range of 2200 - 2320. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 dropped 3 yuan to 2245 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell 15 yuan to 2225 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 2538 lots to 440,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 1811 lots to 610,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Supply - The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8% [2] 3.2.2 Inventory - The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 9690 tons from the previous period. In East China, the inventory decreased by 84,400 tons; in South China, it decreased by 12,500 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 45090 tons, a slight increase of 320 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.71% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a decrease of 47,800 tons from the previous period. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%. The olefin operating rate is 86.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 79.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%; the acetic acid operating rate is 78.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 34.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the MTBE operating rate remains flat at 67.5% [2] 3.2.4 Import - In November 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was 259.09 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. Saudi Arabia had the largest import volume at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of 261.53 dollars/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol imports were 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] 3.2.5 Oil Price - Due to the ongoing instability of the geopolitical situation and some traders' bargain - hunting, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 0.25 dollars/barrel to 59.44 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.42%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 0.37 dollars/barrel to 64.13 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.58%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract fell 12.7 to 439.7 yuan/barrel, and rose 6.5 to 446.2 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle - East have not completely subsided. Crude oil prices rose on Friday. Last week, port methanol had significant destocking. After mid - January, the imported arrivals are expected to decrease. Coupled with the restart plans for olefin plants, methanol faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations and will experience short - term wide - range oscillations. The 05 contract has a reference range of 2200 - 2320 [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see or go short - term long on dips [2]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五尿素主力合约 2605 价格下跌 14 元至 1791 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格 1760 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1281 手至 24.3 万手，空头持仓减少 3683 手至 26.0 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 尿素 | 震荡 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.2 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去年同期 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 85.8%，较去年同期 81.2%回升 4.5%。 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 98.61 万吨，较上周减少 3.61 万吨，环比减 少 3.53%。尿素港口样本库存量 13.4 万吨，环比-0.6 万吨。 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 40.1%，环比+2.9%，三聚氰胺开工率 54.3%，环比+6.7%。 4、1 月 2 日印度 NFL 尿素进口招标，共收到 26 个供货商，总计 36 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 19 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.35%，收于2 | | | | | 284元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2026年第3周末，广州港口谷物库存量为 | | | | | 141.10万吨，环比增加3.75%，同比下降55.53%。其中：玉米库存量为67万吨，环 | | | | | 比增加4.36%，同比下降62.27%；高粱库存量为5.60万吨，环比下降26.32%，同比 | | | | | 下降90.62%；大麦库存量为68.5万吨，环比增加6.70%，同比下降14.38%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，截至1月16日北方港 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 19 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格上涨 2 元至 5978 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6050 元/吨 （-10），华南瓶片价格 6020 元/吨（-90）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1233 手至 6.02 万手，空头持仓减少 2854 手至 6.13 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.53 万吨，环比-0.94 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.2%，环比-2.03%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5588 元， 环比-3.7 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-98 元/吨，环比+67 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 19 日 星期一 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、台积电称，得益于全球人工智能行业的蓬勃发展，预计今年第一季度营收将同 | | | | | 比增长 40%，达到 358 亿美元。2026 年是强劲成长的一年，美元营收将增长接近 30%。 | | | | | 台积电管理层表示，客户发出了强烈的"需求信号"，并直接联系公司寻求产能。 | | | | | 2、台积电表示，今年资本支出预估为 520 亿至 560 亿美元，同比大幅增长 27%至 | | | | | 37%，有望创下公司历史新高。台积电 Q4 的强劲业绩及 2026 年营收指引，清晰释 | | | | | 放出人工智能热潮将持续的信号，也重新燃起了投资者对 AI 需求韧性的信心。 | | | | | 3、美国知名资产管理 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry is "oscillating with a downward bias" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The core factor driving the copper price to break through the historical high is the concern about the US imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future, which leads to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US. At the beginning of 2026, the non - commercial long and net long positions of COMEX copper, as well as the long and net long positions of LME copper investment funds, all continued to rise. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on the Fed regarding interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes such as gold, silver, copper, platinum, and palladium [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The night - session closing price of the main copper contract CU2603 was 102,860 yuan/ton, a 0.7% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main contract CU2604 closed at 103,080 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.74%. As of 06:00 on January 16, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract HGH26E was 5.9915 US dollars per pound (equivalent to 92,063 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 1.7% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03 closed at 13,148.5 US dollars per ton (equivalent to 91,642 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9698), a 0.3% decline [1] Important Information - On January 15, Codelco announced that its Ministro Hales copper mine had obtained environmental approval, with its operating life extended to 2054 and annual production capacity increased from 170,000 tons to 200,000 tons [1] - On January 15, Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 LME copper price forecast from 11,400 US dollars per ton to 12,200 US dollars per ton [1] - On January 11, China Non - Ferrous Metal Mining (1258.HK) released a production guidance, expecting a total copper production of about 484,000 tons in 2026, including about 134,000 tons of cathode copper and about 350,000 tons of blister copper/anode copper. The main and auxiliary shafts of the southeast ore body of Zhongse Feikuang Qianbi were repaired in December 2025, and the mine resumed production on January 1, 2026 [1] - On January 13, Codelco's chairman said that the company's copper production in 2026 was expected to reach 1.344 million tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons compared to 2025 [1] Market Logic - The fear of US tariffs on refined copper led to the concentration of global copper liquidity in the US, causing the LME copper inventory in Europe to decline from nearly 70,000 tons to less than 15,000 tons since April, and the COMEX copper inventory to rise from less than 100,000 short tons to over 500,000 tons. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell and the Trump administration's threat to the Fed are expected to put pressure on interest rate cuts, which is beneficial to metals with strong financial attributes [1] Trading Strategy - There is no trading strategy provided at present [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged, and the adjustment is expected to end in the first half of next week, followed by a resumption of the upward trend. Global funds are re - investing in the Chinese stock market, and the inflow of off - site funds continues, maintaining a capital - driven upward trend. The semiconductor sector is expected to take over from the commercial aerospace sector, with the high - prosperity of the semiconductor equipment sector indicated by TSMC's performance and capital expenditure plans [2][16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Market and Index Trends - Policy aims for a slow - bull market, as shown by recent policy regulations. The satellite ETF declined significantly after commercial aerospace - related listed companies announced risks on Monday. The adjustment of the margin trading guarantee ratio led to a sharp decline in the CSI 500 index on Wednesday afternoon [4][7][10]. - TSMC's Q4 performance was strong, with revenue of about $337.3 billion, a 20.5% year - on - year increase, and a net profit up 35% year - on - year and 11.82% quarter - on - quarter. It expects Q1 revenue to increase by 40% year - on - year to $358 billion in 2026, and its dollar revenue to grow by nearly 30%. Capital expenditure is estimated to be $520 - 560 billion, a 27% - 37% increase from 2025, indicating a high - growth trend in the semiconductor sector [13]. - Global funds are re - increasing their investment in the Chinese stock market. Foreign capital is shifting from passive inflows to an expected return of active funds. The RMB is appreciating, accelerating the return of overseas - hoarded dollars of foreign trade enterprises. The inflow of off - site funds continues, and the upward trend driven by market funds remains unchanged. The adjustment is expected to end in the first half of next week, and the stock index will resume its upward trend. Long - term multi - orders for stock index futures should be held, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have stronger offensive capabilities. For stock index options, consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 1000 index with a long - term maturity [16][17]. Macroeconomic Indicators in China - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, and the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, with a 0.2% month - on - month increase. In December, the month - on - month increase of the industrial producer purchase price index was 0.4%, indicating that the Chinese economy is moving towards re - inflation [18][21]. - The balance of margin trading is approaching 2.7 trillion yuan, reaching a new high. In December, there were 2.59 million new A - share accounts opened [23]. - In December, China's export value reached $357.7 billion, a new record, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6%, showing export resilience [26]. - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing investment [29]. - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a slowdown in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [32]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 31.3%, reaching a new low [35]. - In November, the monthly value of total social consumer goods retail sales was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. In the context of expected decline in exports and slowdown in investment, consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [38]. US Macroeconomic Indicators - The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.6%, and the employment boom has declined, with a rapid increase in the number of voluntary lay - offs by US enterprises [41][44]. - In November, the total retail and food sales in the US increased by 0.6% month - on - month, which may be related to seasonal factors, but overall US consumption has weakened [47]. - In December, the price index of the US manufacturing PMI and the service - sector PMI continued to expand, indicating that the US is moving towards stagflation [50]. International Market Impact - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of the 10 - year Japanese government bond soared to 2.18%. The large - scale return of yen carry - trade will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [53]. - The accelerating appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the accelerated inflow of international capital into China [56].