Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of bottle chips will fluctuate with raw materials. The reference range for the main contract PR2603 is 5950 - 6150 yuan/ton. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The price of the main bottle chip contract in the overnight session on Monday rose 34 yuan to 6020 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 5980 yuan/ton (-70), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6020 yuan/ton (-70). Long - position holdings increased by 4952 lots to 55,000 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 4171 lots to 57,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost, and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 335,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.21. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 73.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.31. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5623 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 178 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 182 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4 yuan/ton [2] - **Export**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [2] - **Production in December 2025**: The output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [2] - **Oil Price**: The market believes that after the US - Venezuela conflict, it will take time for Venezuela's oil production to recover and increase, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.00 dollars/barrel to 58.32 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.74%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.01 dollars/barrel to 61.76 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2602 contract fell 9.7 to 426.8 yuan/ton, and rose 1.3 to 428.1 yuan/ton in the overnight session [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The US attacked Venezuela, but Venezuela's oil facilities were not affected for the time being. After the US "takes over", the medium - and long - term crude oil supply may increase, which is negative for market sentiment. This week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、多家外资机构纷纷发布报告，对 2026 年中国资产表现持积极观点。在企业盈利 | | | | | 持续改善、科技创新突破不断涌现，以及估值吸引力日益凸显的推动下，中国资产 | | | | | 具备了持续上升的坚实基础。 | | | | | 2、马斯克表示，其脑机接口公司 Neuralink 将于 2026 年开始对脑机接口设备进行 | | | | | "大规模生产"。并同步推进流程高度精简、几乎完全自动化的手术方案，最关键 | | | | | 的突破在于，设备中的电极丝将直接穿过硬脑膜，而无需将其切除。 | | | | | 3、AI 算力需求激增与存储芯片价格反弹，推动三星电子与 SK 海力士股价飙升，带 | | | | | 动日韩股市齐创新 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - By observing the price difference changes between the low and high points in 2025, it is found that the price of main coking coal fluctuates greatly in both Shanxi region and Mongolian coal region. The coal types with the largest price fluctuations from the low - point to the high - point are mainly distributed in the Linfen area of Shanxi. Compared with the price fluctuations in 2024 and 2023, the price fluctuation range in 2025 narrows, but the whole year shows a V - shaped reversal trend similar to that in 2023 [3] Summary by Catalog Price Difference and Fluctuation Data of Coking Coal in Different Regions in 2025 - In the Shanxi region, for low - sulfur main coking coal such as Anze Yuhua, the lowest price in 2025 is 1180, the highest is 1710, the price difference is 530, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 44.92%, with an annual average price of 1406. For high - sulfur main coking coal like Liliu Duizhen, the lowest price is 813, the highest is 1382, the price difference is 569, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 69.99%, with an annual average price of 1035 [1] - For Mongolian coal, the lowest price of 288 Port Mongolian 5 raw coal in 2025 is 780, the highest is 1170, the price difference is 390, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 50.00%, with an annual average price of 922. The lowest price of Wubulang Mongolian 5 cleaned coal is 868, the highest is 1434, the price difference is 566, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 65.21%, with an annual average price of 1104 [1] - In the Shaanxi region, the lowest price of Yulin Shenshupan coal in 2025 is 535, the highest is 797, the price difference is 262, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 48.97%, with an annual average price of 653. For coking - blending coal like Huangling, the lowest price is 740, the highest is 1060, the price difference is 320, and the amplitude compared to the lowest point is 43.24%, with an annual average price of 888 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term volatility of precious metals has intensified, and investors are advised to adjust positions and control risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Quotes** - On Friday, COMEX gold futures rose 0.02% to $4341.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.35% to $72.27 per ounce. On the last trading day before the New Year's Day, Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.85% at 977.56 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.27% at 17,074 yuan per kilogram [1] **Important Information** - As of January 2, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 5.43 tons from the previous day to 1065.13 tons, while the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged at 16,444.14 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January is 17.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 82.8%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 44.1%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 48.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 7.0% [1] - On December 30, CME announced the second increase in precious metal margins within a week, which took effect after the close of trading on December 31 [1] - On December 31, data from the US Department of Labor showed that the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending December 20 decreased by 16,000 to 199,000, lower than the expected 218,000. The number of continuing jobless claims last week dropped to 1.87 million [1] - Since January 1, 2026, China's silver exports have continued to implement the "one - order - one - review" license system. Only enterprises with an annual output of over 80 tons (over 40 tons for western enterprises) and continuous export performance for 3 years can apply for export qualifications. The policy was announced by the Ministry of Commerce in October 2025 [1] - Starting from Thursday, January 8, the annual reweighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and more than $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window [1][2] **Market Logic** - The minutes of the Fed's December meeting showed that FOMC agreed to cut interest rates in December, but officials had significant differences. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January remains below 20% [2] - CME increased the performance margins of gold and silver futures again on December 31, reflecting the exchange's deep concern about the abnormal volatility of the precious metals market [2] - On January 2, the US dollar index rose 0.21% to 98.46. COMEX gold and silver both rose and then fell, with gold closing basically flat and silver rising more than 2% [2] - On January 3, the US attacked Venezuela, and geopolitical risks may drive up precious metal prices in the short term [2] **Trading Strategy** - Adjust positions and control risks in the face of intensified short - term volatility of precious metals [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive trading days. Holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar have pressured the cotton market. However, geopolitical turmoil during the holiday benefits crude oil prices, which may be transmitted to cotton prices. In general, short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust at the current level, but the bottom support is solid and the downside space is limited [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settlement price is 64.32, down 3 points; 5 - month is 65.64, up 1 point; 7 - month is 66.85, up 1 point, with about 37,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton total trading volume is 450,502 lots, and the open interest is 1,106,314 lots. Settlement prices are 14,605 yuan/ton for January, 14,550 yuan/ton for May, and 14,725 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from the previous month (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease year - on - year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan has cumulatively imported about 6,692 tons of cotton, a 32.5% decrease year - on - year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to 18, 2025, the United States graded and inspected 199,300 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of the lint meeting ICE futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 2,424,300 tons, and 82.7% of the lint met the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton for the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons on the 19th. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE cotton futures have declined for four consecutive days due to holiday - season light trading and a stronger dollar. Geopolitical turmoil benefits crude oil prices, which may affect cotton prices. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton may adjust, but the bottom support is solid [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 节前主力合约期货BZ2603价格下跌28元至5463元/吨，华东主流地区现货价格5350 | | | | | 元/吨（环比+10），山东地区现货价格 5236 元/吨（环比+25）。持仓方面，多头持 | | | | | 仓增加 812 手至 1.8 万手，空头持仓增加 1114 至 2.31 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，11 月国内纯苯产量 191.8 万吨，同比-0.93%。12 月计划内检修偏多。 | | | | | 10 月纯苯进口量 49.67 万吨，环比+14.1%。市场消息：华东某炼厂计划 1 月对 1000 | | | | | 万吨常减压以及一套重整检修，影响纯苯产能 60 万吨。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，截至 2025 年 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook is turning weaker [1] Core View of the Report - The global economy is starting to weaken as the U.S. makes continuous policy mistakes and returns to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a far - reaching impact on major asset classes [2] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Important News - Goldman Sachs' 2026 top ten investment themes focus on AI infrastructure investment shifting to in - data - center and power suppliers, pharmaceutical R & D moving from weight - loss drugs to the cardiovascular field, and China's economic growth exceeding market expectations driven by technological progress and exports. Political uncertainties such as Fed policy and tariff rulings will dominate the market in the first half of the year [1] - U.S. officials confirmed that Trump ordered air strikes on locations in Venezuela including military facilities, and Venezuelan President Maduro declared a state of emergency [1] - In 2025, precious metal prices rose significantly: gold (+65%), silver (+148%), platinum (+127%), and palladium (+78%), with gold and silver achieving their best annual performance since 1979 [1] - SpaceX is valued at $800 billion, OpenAI is negotiating a new round of financing at a target valuation of $750 billion, and Anthropic is in talks for a new round of financing with a target valuation over $300 billion. A successful IPO of any of the three giants in 2026 would surpass the total fundraising of about 200 U.S. IPOs in 2025 [1] - Starting from January 8, the annual re - weighting of the Bloomberg Commodity Index will lead to the sale of over $6 billion in gold futures and over $5 billion in silver futures within a five - day roll - over window. There will be a 13% sell - off of the total open interest in the Comex silver market in the next two weeks [1] - Tesla's Q4 deliveries decreased 16% year - on - year to 418,227 units, lower than the estimate of 440,907 units. In contrast, BYD's battery - electric vehicle sales increased in Q4 and the full - year, with nearly 2.26 million units delivered in the full - year compared to Tesla's 1.64 million units [1] - U.S. top AI labs like OpenAI, xAI, and Google are building their own gas - fired power plants to solve the power problem for AI computing power [1] - U.S. President Trump threatened to interfere in the Iranian unrest and also threatened to support Israel to strike Iran if it develops its ballistic missile program again [1] 2. Global Economic Logic - Nomura expects Fed uncertainties to peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from U.S. assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, bought $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet. Trump may fire Fed Chair Powell and sue him for "gross negligence" [2] - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The U.S. released a new National Security Strategy, abandoning global hegemony, adjusting economic relations with China, and revitalizing its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer K - shaped differentiation is intensifying, with high - income consumers' spending remaining resilient while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head said the company must double AI computing power every six months and achieve an additional 1000 - fold growth in the next 4 to 5 years [2] - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI race due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists think the construction boom of AI data centers will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [1] - The investment rating for the jujube sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Weak with Oscillation" [4] - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation", with synthetic rubber being "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend" [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the international sugar market faces supply pressure due to increased sugar production in India and the expected high - yield in the new Brazilian season. Although Thailand's new - season sugar production is lower than expected, the overall fundamentals of the domestic and international sugar markets are bearish. It is expected that Zhengzhou sugar futures will run weakly after the opening [1] - For jujubes, the sample inventory of jujubes has entered the seasonal destocking period, but the total inventory is still at a historical high. After the supply negatives are gradually digested, the market focuses on demand. The futures price has support at the previous low, but there is insufficient positive news in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to oscillate in a low - level range [4] - For rubber, natural rubber has limited fundamental driving factors in the short term. The price may be in a consolidation state after the holiday, and attention should be paid to the impact of synthetic rubber trends. Synthetic rubber is supported by cost, and the sudden situation in Venezuela may boost the BR futures price [5] Group 3: Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of SR601 contract was 5,251 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the closing price of SR605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.17% [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar decreased by 16 yuan/ton to 5,293 yuan/ton. As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase year - on - year. The number of sugar mills in operation increased by 12 to 504. As of January 1, 2026, 195 sugar mills in Maharashtra, India, had produced 492,000 tons of sugar. As of December 29, 2025, Thailand's sugar production decreased by 18.83% year - on - year. Before the holiday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged at 5,182 [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the SR605 contract [1] Jujube - **Market Review**: Before the holiday, the closing price of CJ601 contract was 8,965 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.61%, and the closing price of CJ605 contract was 9,230 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.38% [4] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 210 tons week - on - week to 15,898 tons. The wholesale price of Hebei's top - grade jujubes remained unchanged at 9.52 yuan/kg. The number of arrival vehicles at Guangdong Ruyifang Market increased by 1 to 8. The number of jujube warrants increased by 778 to 2,120 [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the CJ605 contract [4] Rubber - Related - **Market Review**: As of December 31, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15,605 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41%, the closing price of NR2603 contract was 12,655 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.55%, and the closing price of BR2602 contract was 11,520 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.39% [5] - **Important Information**: The price of raw materials in Thailand was not available during the holiday. Some enterprises had short - term maintenance plans during the "New Year's Day" holiday. As of December 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.87% to 524,800 tons, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China increased by 1.7% to 1.201 million tons. The price of butadiene in Shandong and East China was stable, and the market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were also stable [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Overall, adopt a wait - and - see approach or hold a small number of long - call options for BR [5]

研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 节前尿素主力合约 2605 价格 1749 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格上涨 10 元至 1710 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 2737 手至 15.68 万手，空头持仓减少 1080 手至 | | | | | 18.85 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 19.47 万吨，较上一工日增加 0.08 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 1.82 万吨；今日开工率 80.52%，较去年同期 78.81%回升 1.71%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 101.92 万吨，环比-4.97 万吨，减少 4.65%。 | | | | | 尿素港口样本库存量 17.2 万吨，环比-0.56 万吨。 | | | | | 3、需求方面，复合肥开工率 37.7%，环比-1.6%，三聚氰胺开工 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 节前瓶片主力价格下跌 30 元至 6016 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6050 元/吨（+30）， 华南瓶片价格 6090 元/吨（+30）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 1678 手至 5.03 万手， 空头持仓减少 2183 手至 5.32 万手。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震 荡 偏 | 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上 ...