Report Overview - The report focuses on the urea market, analyzing the reasons for the rapid increase in urea futures prices and providing trading suggestions [3] Key Points Market Performance - As of the mid - session on August 19, 2025, the main urea futures rose rapidly, with a gain of more than 3% [3] Influencing Factors - According to the latest market news, China is preparing to supply fertilizers, rare - earth materials, and tunnel excavators to India [3] - A new round of Indian tenders requires 1 million tons each for the east and west coasts, and the time is tight, approaching China's export window period on October 15. China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, with a cumulative export of 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons. It is expected that the export volume will be high from July to August, and the concentrated export will occur from August to September [3] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the domestic supply - demand fundamentals provide limited support. The new round of Indian tenders guides the sentiment of the spot market. The spot trading in the mainstream areas improved yesterday. The short - term price rebounds from the bottom. For unilateral trading, be cautious about chasing up. Hold the previous long positions, and for those not yet entered the market, wait for the price to pull back and then layout long positions for distant contracts [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - As of the mid - session on August 19, the main urea futures rose rapidly by more than 3%. It was mainly affected by the news that China is preparing to supply fertilizers, rare - earth materials, and tunnel excavators to India, and a new round of Indian tenders for 1 million tons each on the east and west coasts is approaching the domestic export window period on October 15 [3]. - China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, with a cumulative export of 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons. It is expected that the export volume will be high from July to August, and the concentrated export will be from August to September [3]. - The short - term domestic supply - demand fundamentals have limited support. The new round of Indian tenders guides the spot market sentiment. The spot trading in the mainstream areas improved yesterday. The short - term price rebounds from the bottom. Be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Hold the previous long positions, and those not in the market should wait for a correction to layout long positions in distant months [3]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs - **Urea Futures Market Performance**: As of the mid - session on August 19, the main urea futures rose rapidly, with the increase exceeding 3% [3]. - **Reasons for Price Increase**: Market news about China's supply to India and the approaching new round of Indian tenders [3]. - **Export Situation**: China exported 570,000 tons of urea in July, 640,000 tons from January to July. The second - batch export quota is 1.5 million tons, with expected high export volume from July - August and concentrated export from August - September [3]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term domestic fundamentals have limited support. Be cautious about chasing long positions unilaterally. Hold previous long positions and wait for a correction to layout long positions in distant months [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with various countries and regions having positive developments and potential investment opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - BofA's chief strategist believes that the Fed may deal with debt through currency devaluation, making shorting the US dollar a core investment theme, and gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and emerging markets will be the biggest winners [1] - Michael Burry, the hedge - fund manager and the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", went from short to long on Chinese concept stocks in Q2, buying call options on Alibaba and JD.com [1] - Nomura expects Powell not to give a "clear commitment", BofA expects a hawkish stance, and Morgan Stanley expects Powell to emphasize inflation risks and resist market expectations of interest - rate cuts [1] - The Hong Kong stock market, as the world's largest RMB offshore market, has comprehensive and long - term allocation value [1] - Some public - fund professionals say this year is the "commercialization year" of humanoid robots, which will become a global trillion - dollar industry [1] - India's prime minister announced a comprehensive reform plan for the country's GST, simplifying four tax brackets to two to boost the economy [1] - Japan's Financial Services Agency will approve the country's first issuance of the yen - denominated stablecoin JPYC this month [1] - JPMorgan believes that although the "Fed put" can buffer temporary economic weakness, investors should not underestimate the tail effects of macro risks [1] Global Economic Logic - China strengthens the domestic cycle, provides loan interest subsidies, and its exports in July increased by 7.2%. Sino - US reciprocal tariffs are extended by 90 days. The US may restart interest - rate cuts in September [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost the performance of relevant listed companies. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion may drive European economic growth [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that China's humanoid robot industry is iterating products at an amazing speed [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The futures are continuously squeezing the premium, and the price of the main egg futures contract has broken through the support level and declined. The price of the 2510 contract dropped to 3112 [1][5]. - In the short - term, the spot market is under pressure from loose supply and is in a low - level shock. In the medium - term, the Mid - Autumn Festival consumption season may drive a phased rebound in the spot market in late August and early September, but the rebound high depends on the rhythm of culling hens. Currently, the culling of hens is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is large. In the long - term, if the egg - laying hen breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling of hens is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Performance - The futures price is in yuan per 500 kilograms, with a decline of 2.54% [2]. Spot Performance - The egg price rebounded slightly over the weekend, but the Hebei spot price declined again today. The egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei is 2.69 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.07 yuan per catty from the previous day [3]. Trading Strategy - The morning report today indicated that the 2509/2510 contracts entered the short - position profit - taking range. After taking profits on short positions in the 2509 contract, it is recommended to wait and see. The 2510 contract still maintains the idea of high - selling in bands. If it effectively breaks below 3150, it is expected to open up further downward space, which has been verified by the market. Currently, pay attention to the support effect at 3100. If the support at 3100 is effectively broken, the support will move down to 3000 - 3050. - The morning report also indicated that if the spot market is expected to strengthen, the 2512 and 2601 contracts may still have some downward space, which has also been verified by the market [4].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 8 月 18 日星期一 重要事项: 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 21 元/吨至 2409 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 货下跌 25 元/吨至 2325 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 23889 手至 10.53 万手， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 震荡偏弱 | 空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investment and consumption growth rates have declined, and risk appetite has put pressure on the bond market [2] - The performance of the bond market is affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, stock market trends, and monetary policy. If the stock market continues to be strong, it will suppress the bond market; if the stock market corrects, the bond market is likely to rebound [51] - The trading strategy for trading - type investments is to conduct band operations [52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Debt Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of national debt futures fell on Monday and Tuesday, rebounded on Wednesday, and continued to decline on Thursday and Friday with a slowing decline rate. The 30 - year national debt fell 1.48%, the 10 - year national debt fell 0.29%, the 5 - year national debt fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year national debt fell 0.02% [5] - As of August 15, compared with August 8, the national debt spot yield curve showed a bearish steepening, with an overall upward shift and a larger upward shift at the long - end. The 2 - year national debt yield remained flat at 1.40%, the 5 - year yield rose 4 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year yield rose 6 BP to 1.75%, and the 30 - year yield rose 9 BP to 2.05% [8] 3.2 Investment Data - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June; narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June; manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and down from 7.5% in January - June; real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and down from 11.2% in January - June [11] 3.3 Real Estate Market Data - From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, and the sales volume was 4,956.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%. The decline rates were both larger than those in January - June [13] - In July, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [17] - Since June, the decline rate of the national new housing sales area has accelerated. From August 1st to 14th, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 180,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [20] 3.4 Consumption Data - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3,878 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The month - on - month decline was 0.14% [23] - In July, most of the year - on - year growth rates of categories related to the trade - in policy slowed down compared with June. The growth rates of essential consumer goods remained stable, while the retail sales of automobiles decreased year - on - year [25] - From January to July, the total service retail sales increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of commodity retail sales was 4.9% year - on - year [27] - In July, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [29] 3.5 Industrial Data - In July, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. From January to July, the cumulative year - on - year increase was 6.3% [31] 3.6 Unemployment Data - In July, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [35] 3.7 Social Financing and Credit Data - In July, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, less than the market expectation of 1.41 trillion yuan but 389.3 billion yuan more than the same period last year [38] - In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, more than the market expectation of a 15 - billion - yuan decrease and 310 billion yuan more than the same period last year [41] - At the end of July, the balance of M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the balance of M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year [43] 3.8 Other Market Data - This week, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose slightly and then declined, and the short - term inflation pressure was limited [45] - This week, DR007 only increased on Friday. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was slightly higher than last week [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July, China's economic performance was below expectations, with exports being the highlight, but the export growth rate is likely to decline in the future. To maintain rapid economic growth in the second half of the year, domestic demand needs to continue to play a role [5][12][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.7% and the 2.8% in January - June. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 7.3% year - on - year, down from 8.9% in January - June and 9.2% in 2024. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 3.2% year - on - year, down from 4.6% in January - June and 4.4% in 2024. Manufacturing investment increased by 6.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 7.2% and the 7.5% in January - June. Real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 11.5% decline and the 11.2% decline in January - June [2][6]. - In July, manufacturing investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, compared with a 5.1% increase in the previous month. Narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 5.1% year - on - year, compared with a 2.0% increase in the previous month [6]. Real Estate - From January to July, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year - on - year, down from 3.5% in January - June and 12.9% in 2024. Since June, the decline rate of the national new - house sales area has accelerated. In July, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 19% year - on - year [3][8]. - In July, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. In second - and third - tier cities, the sales price of second - hand residential properties decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.1 percentage points [3][8]. - In July, the funds available to real estate development enterprises decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate expanding from 9.1% in June. The new construction area decreased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the completed area decreased by 29.5% year - on - year, with the decline rates expanding from June [3][9]. Industrial Added Value - In July, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 5.8% and the 6.8% in June. High - tech manufacturing maintained relatively fast growth, with a 9.3% year - on - year increase in July [10]. Foreign Trade - In July, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 7.2% year - on - year, higher than the expected 5.8% and the 5.9% in the previous month. Imports increased by 4.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 0.3% and the 1.1% in the previous month. The trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars [11]. - In July, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 16.6% year - on - year, to the EU by 9.2% year - on - year, to the US decreased by 21.7% year - on - year, to South Korea increased by 4.6% year - on - year, and to Japan increased by 2.5% year - on - year. Exports to non - top five export countries and regions increased by 13.5% year - on - year, faster than the overall export growth rate [11]. - Considering the front - loading of exports in the first seven months and the relatively high base of export volume in the fourth quarter of last year, China's export growth rate is likely to decline in the future [12]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, lower than the market expectation of 4.9% and the 4.8% in June. The growth rates of most categories related to the trade - in policy declined compared with June [15]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods decreased by 0.14% month - on - month in July, compared with a 0.26% decline in June after adjustment [15]. Service Industry and Unemployment Rate - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year, lower than the 6.0% in June [19]. - In July, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction in the steel and ore industry is not prominent, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The I2601 contract is recommended to focus on the 750 - 800 yuan/ton range, and consider going long lightly around 750 yuan/ton with a stop - loss. For the Spiral Coil 2510 contract, short - term long positions can be taken when it retraces to the key support level, while controlling the position and setting a stop - loss. The RB2510 contract has a resistance level of 3384 and a support level of 3150, and the hot - rolled coil has a support level of 3300 and a resistance level of 3550 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Conditions - This week, the steel and ore market first rose and then fell. The iron ore trend was stronger than that of finished products, and its high point was close to the previous high. The iron ore has completed the main contract roll - over [6]. - This week, the supply of steel increased. The supply of five major steel products was 871.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.42 tons or 0.3%. The total inventory was 1415.97 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40.61 tons or 2.95%. The weekly consumption was 831.02 tons, a decrease of 1.7% [15]. Demand Side - In the terminal market, the year - on - year decline rates of real estate investment and new construction have both widened, and the demand for steel in the real estate sector has continued to have a negative feedback. The manufacturing growth rate is 6.2% and the infrastructure investment growth rate is 3.2%, both lower than last month, indicating that the demand side remains weak. Overall, the downstream industries have not recovered [5]. Supply Side - Before the military parade activity's production restrictions, steel mills were highly motivated to start production. The daily hot - metal output this week was 2.4066 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 million tons. The inventory and daily consumption of imported sintered powder both increased, and there is still a profit in off - peak electricity for short - process steelmaking. Starting from August 16, steel mills will start production restrictions, and it is expected that steel production will decline until early September [5][17]. - The iron ore shipping volume has decreased week - on - week, especially the shipping volume from Australia. The supply of iron ore is expected to shrink. The continuous decline in iron ore shipping volume for two weeks means that the short - term pressure on iron ore arrival at ports is not significant. The port iron ore inventory has slightly increased, but the inventory contradiction is not prominent [5][24]. Important News - On August 13, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin regions raised the coke purchase price for the sixth time. The price of tamping wet - quenched coke increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke increased by 55 yuan/ton. The price of top - charged wet - quenched coke increased by 70 yuan/ton, and the price of top - charged dry - quenched coke increased by 75 yuan/ton, with mainstream steel mills tendering on the 14th [12]. - From August 16 to early September, some steel enterprises in Tangshan will implement production restrictions, but the actual implementation effect remains to be observed [14]. - Nearly 30 cities have introduced 34 property market relaxation policies, including Guangzhou's plan to fully cancel the "four restrictions" and Beijing's cancellation of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road [14].

Report Summary 1. Current Situation of Coal Production - In July 2025, the raw coal output of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 1.229 million tons. From January to July, the raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8% [1]. - The July output was 40 million tons lower than the previous month but was the second - highest in the same period in history. The cumulative output from January to July was 2.78 billion tons, the highest in history, 130 million tons higher than the same period in 2024 [2]. 2. Completion of Annual Output Target - To achieve the annual expected output of 4.8 billion tons set by the Energy Bureau, the average monthly output from August to December needs to reach 404 million tons. Compared with the average monthly output of 397 million tons from January to July 2025, theoretically, only a monthly increase of one million tons in the national total raw coal output is required [2]. 3. Reasons for Output Decline in July - The decline in July was a seasonal one, and heavy rains in the self - production areas and the "Three Western Regions" exacerbated the decline. Historically, from 2019 - 2024, the average monthly raw coal output in the second half of the year often exceeded that in the first half [2]. 4. Regional Over - production and Price Concerns - The regional over - production situation from January - June/July 2025 may be weaker than the same period. The continuous rise in coal prices may trigger concerns of relevant departments about price regulation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, after adjustment, there will be new buying opportunities, and it is bullish in the medium to long term [1][2] - For the two - meal sector, maintain a bullish view on the medium - term trend of double meals and wait for new buying opportunities after the correction [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On August 14, the exchange cooled down the risk of the vegetable oil sector. The main contract Y2601 of soybean oil closed at 8,520 yuan/ton, down 0.65% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,966 lots; the secondary main contract Y2605 closed at 8,078 yuan/ton, down 0.49% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily increase of 2,202 lots. Similar price and position changes occurred in palm oil and rapeseed oil contracts [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On August 13, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange issued a risk warning letter for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [1] - The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was generally bullish, with the soybean planting area unexpectedly lowered. The Argentine and Brazilian soybean yields also changed [1] - The US continued to modify the implementation of ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days from August 12, 2025, while retaining the remaining 10% [1] - On August 12, China's Ministry of Commerce preliminarily determined that imported rapeseed from Canada was dumped, and if anti - dumping was ruled, the import cost of Canadian rapeseed would increase significantly [1] - Malaysia's July supply - demand report was generally bullish, with export growth exceeding expectations and production growth lower than expected [1] - As of the end of the 32nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased week - on - week, with different trends in soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil inventories [2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US agricultural report and China - Canada anti - dumping measures led to a strong rebound in US soybeans, and the Malaysian palm oil futures price remained strong. Domestically, policies and macro - factors were favorable, and the vegetable oil sector strengthened. Although the inventory of the three major oils increased, there were reasons for the soybean oil inventory to decrease in the future, and the overall view was that the oils were bullish in the medium to long term after adjustment [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, wait for new buying opportunities after the correction. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On August 14, the exchange cooled down the risk of the two - meal sector. The main contract M2601 of soybean meal closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, down 0.19% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily increase of 54,894 lots; the main contract RM2601 of rapeseed meal closed at 2,606 yuan/ton, down 3.05% day - on - day by closing price, with a daily reduction of 26,613 lots [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Similar to the vegetable oil sector, including the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, China - Canada anti - dumping measures, the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, export inspection data, crop condition data, and domestic inventory data [3][4] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US agricultural report led to a sharp rise in US soybeans, and the ICE rapeseed price dropped due to China - Canada anti - dumping. Domestically, the expected increase in the import cost of Canadian rapeseed and the risk warning letter from Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange affected the market. Overall, the supply of external oilseeds tightened, and the two - meal sector was likely to continue to rise strongly [3][4] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, be bullish on the medium - term trend of double meals and wait for new buying opportunities after the correction. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts [4]