Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is generally bullish on the four major stock index futures (IH, IF, IM, IC), with a bias towards long positions [1]. Core Viewpoints - The performance of A-share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient, with three - quarters of companies profitable and half of them seeing profit growth. The market is expected to attract foreign capital inflows in the next few quarters. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored [1][2]. Summary by Directory Market Review - On Thursday, the major indices of the two markets showed a differentiated trend. Value - cycle indices were strong, while growth indices were weak. The bank ETF was close to a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.10 trillion yuan, with a slight decline. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.19%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.06%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.95%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.08%. Among industry and theme ETFs, game ETFs, bank ETFs, etc. led the gains, while battery ETFs, etc. led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, game, small and medium - sized banks, etc. led the gains, while medical beauty, etc. led the losses. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, and Shanghai 50 Index stock index futures saw net inflows of 590 million, 160 million, and 10 million yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The group of dynamic listed companies is rewriting the global asset allocation logic. A - share listed companies' performance in 2024 was generally resilient. UBS is optimistic about the Chinese stock market, and foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters. ETF - FOF is in a new development opportunity period. The coal industry is expected to rise. China's gold imports in April reached a new high in 11 months. OPEC+ is competing with US shale oil producers for market share. The demand for Japanese government bond auctions hit a new low, and yields soared. Amazon is not affected by consumer tightening. US retail trading volume and net buying reached new highs. US long - term government bond auctions were dismal, and yields rose. Hedge funds increased their investment in Chinese companies listed in the US in Q1 2025 [1][2]. Market Logic - The performance of A - share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is beneficial to the market. Foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters [1][2]. Future Outlook - The value - based indices of the two markets continued to strengthen on Thursday. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is beneficial to the market. The performance of A - share listed companies in 2024 was generally resilient. The price of Shanghai - US West Line 40 - foot containers has increased significantly. Foreign capital inflows will be the main trading logic in the next few quarters. The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. Free cash flow - based ETFs and dividend - based ETFs are expected to benefit the most. Overseas institutional funds will flow into the A - share market on a large scale. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored [2]. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The reduction of the 1 - year deposit rate is expected to drive the transfer of savings and insurance funds to the stock market. The market style is expected to shift to the cyclical value style represented by the Shanghai 50 Index. The four major stock indices are bullish in the long - term, and short - term fluctuations can be ignored. Stock index option trading: The market is in a consolidation period to repair technical indicators. It is recommended to suspend long - term deep - out - of - the - money call options [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore market is expected to be weak with limited upside potential without further demand stimulation. The recommended trading strategy is to try to lay out medium - to - long - term short positions above 730 for the main contract, with a stop - loss at 750 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Black Building Materials - Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On Thursday, the main iron ore contract closed at 727.0, up 0.14%, and slightly declined at the night session [3]. - **Important Information**: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0%. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons [3]. - **Market Logic**: On Thursday, the price of imported iron ore fell. In terms of fundamentals, both the shipment and arrival of iron ore continued to decrease. The current inventory of 45 ports is 140 million tons, still at a relatively high level. The inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has reached the peak since the second quarter. The current daily hot metal output is 2.436 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117,000 tons, still at a high level. The support and pressure levels of the iron ore futures contract remain unchanged: the support level for the main contract is 700, and the pressure level is 740 [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try to lay out medium - to - long - term short positions above 730 for the main contract, with a stop - loss at 750 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Low long-term investment [1] - Pig: Interval investment [3] - Egg: High short-term investment [3] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short term, the spot price is under pressure due to new wheat harvest and increased supply, but in the medium term, the supply pattern may tighten, and the price may stop falling and rebound. In the long term, policy and wheat substitution will limit the upside space [1]. - **Pig**: In the short term, the spot price is weak due to increased出栏体重. In the medium term, the supply pressure will continue to be realized. In the long term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3]. - **Egg**: In the short term, the spot price is weak due to increased supply and inventory. In the medium term, the supply pressure will increase, and the futures should be shorted [3]. 3. Summaries by Sections Corn - **Market Review**: Overnight CBOT corn futures rose 0.38%, and the 2507 contract of domestic corn futures rose 0.04% to 2326 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: Port prices rose slightly, deep - processing enterprise prices were weak in the Northeast and mixed in North China. Wheat - corn price difference increased substitution. Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 100 to 211,935. Two types of corn transactions by CGS had different results [1]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term spot is weak, medium - term supply may tighten, long - term price upside is limited by policies and substitution [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Long - term interval operation; medium - term low long; short - term pay attention to pressure breakthrough [1]. Pig - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the pig futures fluctuated, and the LH2507 contract fell 0.45% to 13,240 yuan/ton [3]. - **Important Information**: The national average pig price fell, the number of fertile sows was above normal, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was stable, the average出栏体重 increased, and the futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term price is weak due to weight increase, medium - term supply pressure persists, long - term production capacity will be realized [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Medium - term interval operation; short - term weak and test support [3]. Egg - **Market Review**: Yesterday, the egg futures were weak, the JD2507 contract rose 0.1% to 2,957 yuan/500kg, and the JD2508 contract fell 0.75% to 3,559 yuan/500kg [3]. - **Important Information**: Spot prices fell, production and circulation inventories changed slightly, the price of old hens fell, and the number of laying hens increased [3]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term price is weak due to supply increase, medium - term supply pressure will increase [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short the 2507 contract if the pressure is effective, short the 2508 contract if it breaks 3600, and consider long in the far - month contract after June [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal sector (silicon - iron and manganese - silicon) is "oscillating with a slight upward bias" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron showed different trends yesterday, with the manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 rising 3.56% and the silicon - iron main contract SF2507 rising 0.04% compared to the opening price. The supply, inventory, and consumption of five major steel products have changed, and the national power generation installed capacity has increased year - on - year. South Africa has new mineral policies. The prices of silicon - manganese alloy and silicon - iron for Hebei Iron and Steel's May procurement have different changes. Before the news is confirmed, the manganese - silicon price may oscillate, and the fundamentals are still weak. It is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The manganese - silicon main contract SM2509 closed at 5998 yesterday, a 3.56% increase from the opening price. The silicon - iron main contract SF2507 closed at 5622, a 0.04% increase from the opening price [1] Important News - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 872.44 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.09 million tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 1398.54 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.12 million tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 904.56 million tons, a 1.0% decrease from the previous week [1] - As of the end of April, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. Among them, the solar power installed capacity was 0.99 billion kilowatts, a 47.7% increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 0.54 billion kilowatts, an 18.2% increase [1] - On May 20, South Africa's Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy announced that the South African Cabinet officially approved the "Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy" and decided to solicit public opinions on the "Mineral Resources Development Bill (MRDB) 2025" [1] Market Logic - Regarding manganese - silicon, the news of South Africa's restriction on manganese ore exports spread yesterday. As South Africa's manganese ore imports account for more than half of China's total imports, the manganese - silicon price rose significantly. Hebei Iron and Steel has set the procurement price of silicon - manganese alloy in May at 5850 yuan/ton (acceptance), 150 yuan/ton higher than the inquiry price and 100 yuan/ton lower than the April price. The procurement quantity is 11,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous month. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's procurement price of 75B silicon - iron in May is 5800 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton lower than in April, and the quantity is 2135 tons, an increase of 435 tons from April. After the previous shutdown and maintenance, the supply - demand of both silicon products is gradually stabilizing, and the spot market has a strong willingness to support prices [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term upper pressure for manganese - silicon is 6100. Silicon - iron has relatively strong bottom support due to the influence of manganese - silicon. The fundamentals are still considered weak. Currently, the tradable space in terms of news is relatively limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Morning session notice 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR509 合约收盘价 5855 元/吨，日跌幅 0.14%。夜盘收于 5835 元/吨。SR601 合 约收盘价 5721 元/吨，日跌幅 0.12%，夜盘收 5698 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1.ICE 原糖 7 月合约昨日收报 17.38 美分/磅，日跌幅 2.03%。伦白糖收 497.4 美元/ | | | | | 吨，日跌幅 2.29%。 | | | | | 2.2025 年 4 月我国进口糖浆和预混粉共计 8.54 万吨，其中 2106.90 项下糖浆、预 | | | | | 混粉进口 4.19 万吨. | | | | | 3.航运机构 Williams 发布的数据显示，截至 5 月 21 日当周，巴西港口等待装运食 | | | | | 糖的船只数量为 79 艘，此前一周为 86 艘。 | | | | | 港口等待装运的食糖数量为 314.7 ...

研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 5 月 23 日星期五 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jm2509 | 合约收于 | 827.5，环比上一交易日收盘下跌 | 1.72%。J2509 | 合约收于 | 1406.5，环 | 比上一交易日收盘下跌 | 0.78%。昨日夜盘，Jm2509 | 合约收于 | 825.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 | | | | | | | | | | | 0.3%。J2509 | 合约收于 | 1413.5，环比日盘收盘上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The market logic has returned to the industry and expectations. With current weak expectations, the futures market is expected to continue oscillating weakly. It is advisable to wait for the direction to become clearer [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Quotes - On Thursday, the main contract of rebar 2510 closed at 3061, down 0.03%. The main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3210, up 0.09%. The main contract of stainless steel closed at 12830, up 0.04%. During the night session, rebar closed flat, hot - rolled coil declined slightly, and stainless steel rose slightly [1] Important Information - On the 21st, eight departments including the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued "Several Measures to Support the Financing of Small and Micro Enterprises", proposing 23 work measures in 8 aspects to improve the financing situation of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households [1] - Shanghai's special action plan to boost consumption aims to expand the implementation of consumer goods trade - in programs [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8724400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40900 tons or 0.5%. The total inventory was 13985400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 321200 tons or 2.2%. The weekly consumption was 9045600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0% [1] - According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to fall with poor trading volume. Steel mills such as Shagang and Zhongtian set the ex - factory prices for the second half of May mainly with a price - holding attitude. Most stainless steel spot prices remained flat, and a few declined. This week, rebar production and factory inventory increased, while social inventory and apparent demand decreased. Electric - arc furnace steel has fallen into losses again, and production cuts may occur [1] Trading Strategy - Wait for the direction to become clearer [1] Support and Pressure Levels - The pressure level for the main rebar contract is 3164, and the support level is 3000. The pressure level for hot - rolled coil is 3282, and the support level is 3100. The pressure level for stainless steel is 12900, and the support level is 13130 [1]

| 板块 | 品种 | 多 （空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上一交易日期货主力 2507 合约日内震荡运行，最后收于 7880 元/吨，下跌 15 元/ | | | | | 吨，跌幅 0.19%。成交量 48.81 万手，较上一交易日有小幅下降；持仓 51.17 万手， | | | | 降 | 13636 手；成交额 193.06 亿元，较上一交易日小幅下降。整体期货市场活跃度有 | | | | | 小幅下降。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、本周开工率 47.75%，较上周下降 3.94%。 | | | | | 2、本周开炉数较上周减少 10 台，主要是四川有 7 台新增，青海地区有 1 台新增， | | | | | 但新疆地区减少 18 台。 | | | | | 3、本周产量 69210 吨，较上周减少 3.94%。 | | | | | 4、本周现货行业库存 41.92 万吨，较上周减少 0.37%；期货库存 33.19 万吨，较上 | | | | | 周减少 0.07%。 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The futures pricing model is effective. After the listing of log futures, it has been implemented in international trade through models such as price - setting transactions and basis trading, improving pricing transparency and risk management efficiency [11]. - The combination of futures and spot is a trend. Industrial enterprises use the combined strategy of "futures hedging + basis trading" to achieve double hedging of price risk and basis risk [11]. - There is still a need to improve standardization and internationalization. Although the Dalian Commodity Exchange has promoted intelligent measurement standards and delivery system innovation, the low standardization of domestic logs and insufficient international market recognition remain challenges [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Traditional Log Pricing Model - **Traditional Log Trade Pricing Model** - Negotiated pricing: International log trade uses a bilateral negotiated pricing mechanism. Suppliers like those in New Zealand issue CFR benchmark quotes regularly, and domestic traders need to bargain dynamically. In 2020, overseas suppliers took the pricing initiative, leaving domestic importers in an asymmetric bargaining dilemma [3]. - Regional price benchmarks: New Zealand radiata pine accounts for nearly 70% of China's import volume. International pricing is based on the origin benchmark price plus shipping costs. The domestic market has problems such as a 10% difference in measurement standards between the north and the south and a lack of a standardized grading system [3]. - Long - term contracts and long - term agreement mechanisms: There are fixed - price contracts and quarterly price - adjustment contracts. However, the price inversion in 2023 exposed their defects, and most traders' long - term agreement mechanisms are in a state of "fixed quantity but unfixed price" [3]. - **Problems Faced** - High price fluctuation risk: The international log market has strong cyclical fluctuations. The price elasticity coefficient is affected by real estate demand, extreme climate events, and shipping costs. The price decline in March 2024 showed the lag of the traditional "quotation - bargaining" mechanism in risk management [4]. - Information asymmetry and trade frictions: Overseas suppliers monopolize origin data, leaving domestic traders without an authoritative price index and lacking forward - price discovery tools for hedging [4]. - Low standardization: There are "dual - track" contradictions in the current standards. The measurement difference rate between domestic national and local standards is 6% - 8%, and there is a 10% - 15% deviation between JAS - certified logs and national standards in international transactions [4]. - Contract execution risk: Long - term agreements may lead to defaults during sharp price fluctuations [4]. Feasibility and Necessity of the Futures Pricing Model - **Model Discussion** - **Hedging**: It means buying or selling an equal amount of futures contracts while trading actual goods. The theoretical basis is that the spot and futures markets tend to move in the same direction. To achieve risk hedging, conditions such as the same or similar varieties, appropriate quantity, opposite positions, and corresponding time periods need to be met. The main goals of enterprises' participation in hedging are to hedge market risks, smooth profit fluctuations, and improve operational efficiency [6][7]. - **Basis trading**: It combines price - setting and hedging. It gives more flexibility to both parties, helps reduce price risks, and improves trading efficiency. The mechanism is to determine the spot price based on the futures price plus a negotiated basis, such as "futures price + 50 yuan/cubic meter" [8][11]. - **Advantages and Disadvantages Analysis** - The futures pricing model reconstructs the traditional log trade pricing system. The hedging mechanism can lock price risks but incurs margin costs and professional team building expenses. The basis trading model reduces risk exposure to basis fluctuations but faces challenges in regional spread modeling and credit risk management [11]. Conclusions and Suggestions - **Conclusions** - The futures pricing model is effective in improving pricing transparency and risk management efficiency [11]. - Industrial enterprises use the combined strategy of futures and spot to hedge risks [11]. - There are challenges in standardization and internationalization [11]. - **Suggestions for the Dalian Commodity Exchange** - In terms of liquidity construction, introduce market - making mechanisms, reduce trading and storage costs [12]. - Optimize the standard system by promoting the "Log Intelligent Measurement Technology" group standard and obtaining international certifications [12]. - Innovate risk management tools by launching option combinations and pilot over - the - counter basis swaps, and developing composite risk management solutions [12].