早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 焦煤主力合约 Jm2601 收于 1084.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.14%；焦炭主力合约 J2601 收 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 于 16 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report expects the iron ore market to be mainly in a volatile state in the short - term. The upper limit of the important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Ore Market Conditions - In the night session on Wednesday, iron ore closed down [3]. Important Information - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.61 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period the year before last [3]. - On November 26, 5 steel enterprises, including Henan Minyuan Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., carried out the publicity of the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring. So far, 230 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [3]. - On November 25, the Shanghai Clearing House completed the optimization of the agreement elements of the RMB iron ore swap central counterparty clearing business. The RMB iron ore swap is based on the average spot price of imported iron ore (60.8% grade PB powder) at Rizhao and Qingdao ports, with cash settlement and denominated, cleared, and settled in RMB [3]. Market Logic - During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention should be paid to the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. According to data from Zhaogang.com, the production of screw coils and five major steel products decreased this week. The daily output of molten iron last week was 2.3628 million tons, and a reduction is expected this week. The arrival of domestic iron ore is low, but the shipment is active. The foreign port inventory is at the highest level since the fourth quarter [3]. Trading Strategy - The view remains unchanged: it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term. The upper important pressure level for the main 2601 contract is 810, and the support level is 750 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Core View of the Report - The current market is dominated by the industrial level. It is expected that steel coils will continue to show a volatile trend. The first pressure level for the main螺纹 contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. Short - term operations or staying in a cash position are recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Conditions - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and continued to decline during the night session [1] Important Information - In mid - November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.61 million tons, a 0.8% increase from the previous ten - day period, a 26.3% increase from the beginning of the year, a 5.9% decrease from the same ten - day period last month, a 0.4% increase from the same ten - day period last year, and a 1.8% increase from the same ten - day period the year before last [1] - As of November 26, 5 steel enterprises carried out public announcements on the progress of ultra - low emission transformation and assessment and monitoring, and 230 steel enterprises have been publicly announced on the website of the China Iron and Steel Association [1] - Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to promote consumption, aiming to significantly optimize the consumer goods supply structure by 2027, forming 3 trillion - level consumption areas and 100 billion - level consumption hotspots [1] - From November 1 - 23, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.384 million vehicles, a 11% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period last November and a 2% decrease compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 20.64 million vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [1] Market Logic - On Wednesday, most steel coil spot prices remained stable, with a few declining. During the macro - policy vacuum period, attention is focused on the policy expectations brought by the Central Economic Work Conference in December. The current market trend depends on the industrial level. This week, the production and apparent demand of steel coils and five major steel products both changed from increasing to decreasing, and inventory continued to be depleted, but the depletion rate slowed down. Overall, supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The industrial level currently dominates the market. It is maintained that steel coils are expected to continue the volatile trend. The first pressure level for the main螺纹 contract is 3150, and the 3000 level remains a strong support. Short - term operations or staying in a cash position are recommended [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Precious metals are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 949.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73% to 12450 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of November 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1045.43 tons, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged from the previous day at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025. The forecast was 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 220,000 to 222,000. Although the number of initial jobless claims was stable, the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week climbed slightly to 1.96 million, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity changed little during the more than one - month period covering the government shutdown. Tariff pressures squeezed corporate profits, AI suppressed some recruitment demand, and retailers reported that the government shutdown had a negative impact on consumption [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, less than the expected 2.7% growth; the US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises reduced an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2,500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. The latest weak economic data has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. On November 26, the US dollar index fell and closed at 99.59. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, while COMEX silver rose sharply. Precious metals may fluctuate slightly more in the short term [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat on Wednesday, with the 30 - year contract opening much lower and all contracts declining throughout the day. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. Treasury bond futures may open higher today, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat, with the 30 - year contract TL2603 opening much lower. By the close, TL2603 fell 0.86%, T2603 fell 0.36%, TF2603 fell 0.22%, and TS2603 fell 0.05%. The Wande All - A index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon, closing up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.80 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day's 1.83 trillion yuan [3][4] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 310.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 97.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (previous day: 1.32%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (previous day: 1.45%) [3] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.42 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 1.84 BP to 1.62%, the 10 - year rose 1.61 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.75 BP to 2.19% [3] - Policy: On November 25th, six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030 [3] Market Logic - Unemployment rates for certain age groups are higher than last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased by 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, and the decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has widened, with housing prices still bottoming out [3] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The global economic investment rating is (turning weak) [1] 2. Report's Core View - The so - called AI bubble is unlikely to exist in the next three years, and the market's long - standing "AI trading" logic has changed significantly. The AI industry is shifting from "scaling up" to the "research era." The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The US economy shows signs of weakening, with slow retail sales growth, accelerated private enterprise job cuts, and an emerging burden - of - cost crisis on the consumer side. The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Important Information - AI - related: Industry leaders like the CEO of Alibaba suggest that new and previous generations of GPUs are fully utilized, indicating no AI bubble in the next three years. Google's full - stack innovation creates a multiplier effect, and about 5 years later, people will be excited about quantum technology. The market's "AI trading" logic has changed, with "Google chain" stocks rising and "OpenAI chain" stocks falling. The era of AI breakthroughs by "scaling up" is over, and the industry is moving towards a "research era" [1] - Economic - related: Goldman Sachs launched a new portfolio GSXUPROD with non - tech companies integrating AI. US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far below expectations, and consumer confidence dropped. ADP data shows private enterprises are laying off more employees, increasing the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. US PPI rose in September, indicating a resurgence of inflation. Musk is promoting an AI - replacing - human strategy [1][2] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has risen to 80%. Google plans to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years. The CEO of NVIDIA believes China will win the AI competition. The construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion, and US data center planning capacity has increased. US stock market retail participation is accelerating. US economic indicators such as retail sales and employment are weakening, and the global economy is entering the top - region due to US policies [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black sector (coking coal and coke) is bearish [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall sentiment in the coking coal and coke market remains bearish. The coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1086.0, a 0.96% decline compared to the opening of the day session. The main coke contract J2601 closed at 1643.0, a 0.64% increase compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, Jm2601 closed at 1062.5, a 1.75% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the J2601 contract closed at 1593.5, a 3.01% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] 3.2 Important Information - Local government special bonds are experiencing a peak in issuance for investment in government - funded funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan in special bonds on November 28, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. Coupled with the more than 60 billion yuan of relevant special bonds issued in many places before, the total scale of local government special bonds invested in government - funded funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [1] - Recently, the "Work Plan for the Classification and Disposal of Coal Mines below 600,000 Tons/Year in Shaanxi Province" was issued, which mentioned accelerating the classification and disposal of coal mines below 600,000 tons/year and guiding the closure and exit of coal mines with exhausted resources and those without safe production conditions [1] - As of November 21, the daily coal consumption of 493 power plant samples nationwide was 4.091 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons. The total on - site coal inventory was 101.691 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.215 million tons, and the available days were 24.9 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Affected by the snowfall at the Ganqimaodu Port, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal has declined. The sentiment has led to a slight rebound in the day - session market. However, the recent coking coal spot auction has been mediocre, and downstream procurement is cautious during the period of falling spot prices. The overall sentiment remains bearish. The coke market has a certain expectation of price cuts, so the double - coking products are still regarded as bearish in the short term [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - After the main coking coal contract rebounds and meets resistance, it falls back. The lower support is at 1050 for the Jm2601 contract and 1150 for the Jm2605 contract. It is regarded as weakly volatile in the short term [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Report's Core View - For the vegetable oil market, the report indicates that the market is showing a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil is the strongest, soybean oil is testing key support levels, and palm oil is the weakest. Given the downward break of palm oil, it is advisable to short on rallies. For the protein (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market, after the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited. It is recommended to stage new long positions [1][3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Market 1. Market Review - On November 24, due to weak demand and rising inventory build - up expectations, Malaysian palm oil weakened, and Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8090 yuan/ton, down 0.66% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 1345 lots. The secondary main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7890 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1079 lots. The main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 8360 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 1873 lots. The secondary main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8442 yuan/ton, down 1.52% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 19203 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 9818 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 21536 lots. The secondary main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9488 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 3779 lots [1]. 2. Important Information - On November 25, NYMEX crude oil futures fell about 1% due to progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. If sanctions on Russian energy trade are lifted, the international crude oil market will be under pressure. The most actively traded January crude oil futures contract on NYMEX fell 0.89 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $57.95 a barrel. - The US government is considering delaying the proposed plan to cut subsidies for imported biofuels by one to two years. The plan, originally scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026, aims to reduce dependence on imported biofuels and improve the competitiveness of domestic fuels. - The Brazilian government may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, and achieving this goal is "extremely difficult". - From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 10.32% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 7.96% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.45% month - on - month. - From November 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 987,978 tons, a 16.4% decrease compared to the 1,182,216 tons exported from October 1 - 25. - In October, India's palm oil imports dropped to the lowest level in five months, causing the palm oil imports in the 2024/25 fiscal year to decline by 16% to 7.56 million tons, the lowest in five years. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.4348 million tons, an increase of 23,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 11.40%. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.404 million tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 2.28% and a year - on - year increase of 14.28%; edible palm oil inventory was 591,600 tons, an increase of 35,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 6.31% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%; rapeseed oil inventory was 439,300 tons, a decrease of 43,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.95% [1][3]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the US is promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine, causing international crude oil to continue to decline under pressure. At the same time, the US domestic biodiesel policy is fluctuating, causing US soybean oil to rise first and then fall. India's palm oil import data has dropped significantly, and the palm oil production in Southeast Asia has not significantly decreased, leading to market concerns about increased inventory pressure and the downward break of Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, the supply of vegetable oil raw materials is sufficient, and the overall inventory of domestic vegetable oils is in good condition, resulting in a weak basis for soybean oil. However, domestic oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in import and crushing profits, and they face huge profit pressure. There may be price - supporting actions in the future. The poor export data of Malaysian palm oil and its downward break have dragged down the domestic palm oil to follow the weak trend. The domestic rapeseed inventory is zero, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still being depleted. The rapeseed oil at East China ports continues to be destocked, while the destocking rhythm in other regions is relatively slow. The spot price fluctuates with the futures market, and the basis quotes are generally stable with slight adjustments [1][3]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, all previous long positions in palm oil should be closed, and shorting on rallies should be the main strategy. Soybean oil is testing the support level, and if it breaks below, the downward space will open up. Rapeseed oil should be treated as strong. The resistance level for the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; for the Y2605 contract, the resistance level is 8400, and the support level is 7840; for the P2601 contract, the resistance level is 8562, and the support level is 8270; for the P2605 contract, the resistance level is 8626, and the support level is 8200; for the OI2601 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9299; for the OI2605 contract, the resistance level is 12000, and the support level is 9000. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [1][3]. Protein (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market 1. Market Review - On November 25, the domestic protein sector showed a differentiated trend, with rapeseed meal being strong and bean meal being weak, presenting a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The main bean meal contract M2601 closed at 3013 yuan/ton, up 0.07% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 33,444 lots; the secondary main bean meal contract M2605 closed at a certain price (not clearly stated in a convenient way in the text), up 0.18% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 2820 lots. The main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2431 yuan/ton, down 0.61% from the previous day's closing price, with a daily reduction of 4625 lots; the secondary main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2385 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day's closing price, with a daily increase of 7383 lots [3]. 2. Important Information - In 2026, the US soybean planting area will increase by 4%, from 81.1 million acres in 2025 to 84.5 million acres. - Since November 10, China has resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies: CHS, the grain department of Louis Dreyfus, and EGT. - As of November 13, the sowing of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop was 71% complete, higher than the 61% a week ago but lower than the 80% at the same time last year. - The 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production is predicted to reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture. - In November, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 4.26 million tons and a 101% increase compared to 2.339 million tons in November last year. - There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government has decided to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026. Although rapeseed meal is not included, it is necessary to pay attention to whether Russian rapeseed is included, which may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. - As of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from the previous week. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 0 tons, the same as the previous week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.136 million tons, an increase of 137,000 tons from the previous week, a 13.76% month - on - month increase; the contract volume was 5.264 million tons, a decrease of 607,000 tons from the previous week, a 10.34% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease; the contract volume was 0 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, a 100% month - on - month decrease [3][4]. 3. Market Logic - Externally, the expected demand from China has cooled down, causing US soybeans to face pressure at high levels. In the spot market, oil mills have been suffering continuous losses in crushing profits, so there may be a need for oil mills to support prices. With the expected cost support from state - reserved soybeans, the downward space for futures prices is limited. For rapeseed meal in the spot market, the rapeseed inventory remains at zero, and oil mills have shut down completely. The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons. There are rumors in the market that there are problems with the import procedures for Australian rapeseed, which may delay the crushing time. The Russian government's decision to cancel the price - reduction coefficient for railway transportation of food products starting from 2026 may indirectly increase the cost of by - products. After the continuous decline of the double - meal on the futures market, the premium risk from the previous rally has been cleared, and the futures market has completed a round of basis washing and pricing operations. The continuous increase in the trading volume of the spot basis indicates that the low price has attracted market purchases, and the room for further decline is limited [3][4]. 4. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, long positions should be established in the far - month 2605 and 2607 contracts of bean meal, and a small number of new long positions should be entered for rapeseed meal. The resistance level for the M2601 contract is 3190, and the support level is 2685; for the M2605 contract, the resistance level is 3000, and the support level is 2549; for the RM2601 contract, the resistance level is 2620, and the support level is 2280; for the RM2605 contract, the resistance level is 2500, and the support level is 2270. There is no arbitrage strategy provided [4][5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Report's Core View - The macroeconomic theme in the fourth quarter is still stable growth. Influenced by the overnight rise in US stocks and the positive news of the phone call between Chinese and US leaders, the Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, rose in the morning and then fluctuated and declined slightly, closing 1.24% higher than the previous trading day with a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts corrected on Tuesday, while the medium - and short - term contracts were basically flat. The central bank released 1000 billion yuan in long - term funds through MLF, and the capital side is relatively loose. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the Treasury bond futures' main contracts opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening significantly lower. It rose in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.33%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 was flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations. With 407.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 5.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose slightly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.13 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.75 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year rose 1.65 BP to 2.18% [1] - **US Economic Data**: US PPI in September increased 2.7% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.6%), 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous - 0.1%); core PPI increased 2.6% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.8%). US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.60%). ADP weekly data on Tuesday showed more signs of weakness in the US labor market, with the pace of layoffs accelerating in the past four weeks. On average, private enterprises cut 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 jobs per week in the previous update a week ago [1] Market Logic - In October, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and that of the 25 - 29 age group was 7.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Stable growth and employment still need to be strengthened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased 5.6% year - on - year, indicating good export prospects for China in November. The wholesale prices of agricultural products fluctuated narrowly in mid - November, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly, and the overall inflation level in China remained moderate. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities widened in mid - November, and housing prices continued to bottom out. The latest macroeconomic data shows that stable growth is still the main line of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has soared to 80% as several Fed governors signaled dovish stances [1][2]. - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and without the AI boom, the economy might have slipped into recession [1]. - The capital expenditure of the top five tech giants in 2026 is estimated to have soared to $533 billion, and the construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Important Information - Fed officials including Mary Daly, John Williams, and Christopher Waller advocated for a December rate cut, causing the market's rate - cut bets to surge from 40% to 80% [1]. - Investment giants like Gundlach and Dalio advised holding physical gold as a defense, warning that debt - driven asset prices are far from real values and may lead to an economic collapse [1]. - AI investment contributed nearly half of the US GDP growth in the first half of the year, and a slump in AI stock prices or a slowdown in investment could trigger a recession [1]. - The US President launched the "Genesis Plan" to use AI to transform scientific research, and the Energy Department will create an AI experimental platform [1]. - Tesla's AI5 chip is in the tape - out stage, and the R & D of AI6 has started, with a goal to launch a new generation of AI chip design every 12 months [1]. - Google is promoting TPU chips to large customers, which have lower development costs and power consumption compared to NVIDIA GPUs [1]. - Amazon will invest up to $50 billion to expand AI and super - computing capabilities for the US government in 2026, adding nearly 1.3 gigawatts of computing power [1]. - The US government plans to invest $80 billion in restarting nuclear power construction, aiming to build 8 reactors at four locations and control the single - unit cost at $10 billion [1]. - Anthropic released the Claude Opus 4.5 model, which outperformed Gemini 3 Pro and GPT - 5.1 in programming evaluations [2]. 3.2 Global Economic Logic - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased to 80%, and Google aims to double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years [2]. - Foreign capital has shifted from the South Korean stock market to China's technology sector [2]. - NVIDIA CEO Huang Renxun believes China will win the AI competition due to a more favorable regulatory environment and lower energy costs [2]. - The capital expenditure of the five major tech giants in 2026 is estimated to reach $533 billion, and the construction of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2]. - The planned capacity of US data centers has surged to 245 gigawatts, and developers are building their own power plants in energy - producing areas [2]. - US stock market retailization is accelerating, with retail investors being one of the largest net buyers this year, especially in the options market [2]. - US household excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been mostly exhausted, and consumer slowdown has spread to the middle - income group [2]. - Unemployment among 25 - year - old and above with at least a bachelor's degree in the US exceeded 1.9 million in September, and large - scale layoffs by companies may be an economic warning [2].