Group 1: General Information - On August 15, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the Shanghai Futures Exchange to launch the world's first financial derivatives for cultural paper - offset printing paper futures and options, which will be officially listed for trading on September 10 [2] Group 2: Product Introduction - Offset printing paper is a type of cultural paper, mainly used in teaching materials, books, periodicals, flyers, etc. Most of the offset printing paper on the market is double - coated paper, and the futures of offset printing paper listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is also referred to as double - coated paper futures [3] - Double - coated paper is a variant of offset paper, with glue coated on both sides, which has better printability [4] - In terms of production cost, wood pulp accounts for about 60 - 70% of the cost, chemical additives account for 10 - 25%, energy cost accounts for about 10%, and other costs account for about 10% [5] Group 3: Product Classification - Double - coated paper is mainly distinguished by quantitative, brightness and other quality indicators. The most common quantitative is between 60 - 90g/m², and it can be classified by size, quantitative, brightness and calendering grade [12] - By size, there are positive degree (787mmx1092mm) and large degree (889mmx1194mm); by quantitative, it ranges from 60 - 180g/㎡, with different quantitatives suitable for different printing fields; by brightness, it can be divided into high - white, natural - white, elegant - white, off - white, etc.; by calendering grade, it can be divided into super - calendered and ordinary - calendered [12][13][14] Group 4: Delivery Standards - For physical delivery, the offset printing paper should be double - coated paper with a quantitative of 65g/m², 70g/m², 75g/m², 80g/m², and meet relevant technical indicators in GB/T 30130 - 2023 [18] - The delivery double - coated paper is reel paper with a width of 780mm, 787mm, 880mm, 889mm, and the size deviation should not exceed ±3mm [18] Group 5: Packaging, Storage and Logistics - The mainstream packaging methods are reel packaging and flat - plate packaging. Reel packaging uses multi - layer high - quantitative materials for protection, and flat - plate packaging has two forms: ream packaging and piece packaging [19] - The storage and logistics system of double - coated paper is highly stable. There are professional storage facilities in each link, and large paper mills generally use intensive distribution, while small and medium - sized enterprises prefer self - pick - up. Road transport is the mainstream, and multi - modal transport such as water and rail is also used for medium - and long - distance transport [20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports Core View of the Report - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The A-share new account openings in August showed significant growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. The issuance of a private equity fund by Hengyi Chiying to Ping An Life and the inflow of international funds into A-shares are positive factors. The market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main indices of the two markets continued to adjust, with the ChiNext Index strengthening driven by the battery sector. The trading volume decreased during the adjustment, with a turnover of 236 million yuan. The Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2960 points, down 31 points or -1.07%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4459 points, down 30 points or -0.68%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6868 points, down 93 points or -1.34%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7206 points, down 107 points or -1.46%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those related to energy storage batteries, photovoltaic, and new energy led the gains, while aerospace and military-related ETFs led the losses. Among the sector indices, electrical equipment, communication equipment, BC batteries, and the pharmaceutical index led the gains, while military trade concepts, aviation, military informatization, large aircraft, and the diversified finance index led the losses. The CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and Shanghai Composite 50 stock index futures saw net outflows of 4.9 billion, 4.6 billion, 2.9 billion, and 1.8 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - China's S&P Services PMI in August was 53, up from 52.6 in the previous month, reaching the fastest record since May 2024 and remaining in the expansion zone for 32 consecutive months. The growth rate of new orders accelerated for the second consecutive month and reached the highest record since May 2024, partly due to the strong growth of new export business [1] - In August this year, the number of new A-share accounts reached 2.6503 million, a month-on-month increase of 34.97% compared to 1.9636 million in July this year and a year-on-year increase of 165.21% [1] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. jointly announced that they would adjust the samples of indices such as the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 according to the index rules. This adjustment is expected to be completed between September 12 and September 15. The weight of Cambrian in the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index will be passively adjusted from the current approximately 15% to 10% [1] - Hengyi Chiying will issue a contract-based private equity fund to Ping An Life as the fund manager, with an initial fund size of approximately 30 billion yuan. Once insurance funds enter the market through private equity funds, their returns will not be affected by the short-term fluctuations of the stock prices of the held varieties [1] - According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide in August were 1.3 million, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 10%. The cumulative wholesale sales from January to August this year were 8.93 million, a year-on-year increase of 34% [1] - Since the beginning of this year, the overseas energy storage demand has increased explosively, leading to a surge in orders for domestic energy storage cell enterprises. Factories have been operating at full capacity. With the implementation of the market-oriented reform of the new energy on-grid electricity price, some energy storage enterprises even reported a situation of "even paying extra can't get an order" and "a shortage of cells" [1][2] - In the first half of the year, the global energy storage cell shipments were 226 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 97%. The top nine were all Chinese enterprises. In the first half of the year, Chinese enterprises obtained 199 new overseas energy storage orders (cooperations), with a total scale of over 160 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 220.28%. The emerging markets have broad prospects [2] - Tesla officially released "The Fourth Chapter of the Master Plan", expecting that approximately 80% of the company's value will come from the Optimus robot in the future. It plans to launch the third version prototype of Optimus by the end of this year and start large-scale mass production in 2026, aiming to reach an annual production scale of 1 million units within five years [2] - The yield of the 30-year UK government bond once rose to 5.697%, reaching a new high since 1998; the yield of the 30-year German government bond was at a level not seen since 2011; the yield of the 30-year French government bond refreshed the record since 2009. Investors are re-evaluating the long-term risks brought by the expanding public debt and political uncertainties in Europe [2] - Ray Dalio warned that Trump is pushing the United States towards the governance model of the 1930s through state intervention in the private sector. He predicted that the United States will face a debt crisis within three years, and the huge fiscal gap will force large-scale bond issuance [2] Market Logic - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The A-share new account openings in August showed significant growth both month-on-month and year-on-year. Hengyi Chiying's issuance of a private equity fund to Ping An Life and the inflow of international funds into A-shares since August are positive factors [2] Market Outlook - The main indices of the two markets continued to adjust on Wednesday, while the ChiNext Index strengthened. The S&P Services PMI in August showed good performance, and the energy storage cell industry had strong growth. The A-share new account openings in August increased significantly. The global reallocation of financial assets away from the US is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A-shares. The market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [2] Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, the market as a whole may enter a daily-level adjustment state, with a low probability of a sharp downward trend, and the adjustment is expected to occur in the form of range-bound horizontal fluctuations [2] - For stock index option trading, the market has entered an adjustment period, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, growth - related indices adjusted significantly, while the Shanghai 50 Index stabilized the market. The trading volume was 2.87 trillion yuan with increased volume during the decline. The Shanghai 50 Index rose 0.39%, while the CSI 1000 Index dropped 2.50% [1]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of 12 ETF products in the first half of the year, spending over 210 billion yuan. Since August, Chinese assets have been continuously "swept up" by global funds. Many overseas - listed Chinese ETFs have seen a surge in scale, and Chinese mainland stock funds attracted over $4 billion in the past week [1][2]. - Overseas funds showed a net inflow into the A - share market in the first half of 2025. As of the end of June 2025, overseas investors held 3.07 trillion yuan of A - shares. Northbound funds increased their A - share holdings in the first two quarters of 2025 [1][2]. - The market may enter a daily - level adjustment, which is a total adjustment since the rise in June. The probability of a sharp decline is low, and the adjustment is expected to be in the form of range - bound lateral fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, growth - related indices adjusted deeply. The Shanghai 50 Index closed at 2992 points, up 11 points (0.39%); the CSI 300 Index closed at 4490 points, down 33 points (- 0.74%); the CSI 500 Index closed at 6961 points, down 148 points (- 2.09%); the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7313 points, down 187 points (- 2.50%) [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top - gainers were Robot 50 ETF, Bank ETF, etc., and the top - losers were New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF, etc. Among sector indices, the top - gainers were oil and gas exploration, forestry, etc., and the top - losers were communication equipment, components, etc. [1]. - Net inflows of settlement funds into CSI 1000, CSI 300, CSI 500, and Shanghai 50 stock index futures were 6.7 billion, 6.4 billion, 4.8 billion, and 2.8 billion yuan respectively [1]. 3.2 Important Information - The "Construction Plan for a High - Quality Standard System for Industrial Mother Machines" was issued, focusing on developing standards for the application of new - generation information technologies in industrial mother machines [1]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of 12 ETF products in the first half of the year, covering Shanghai 50ETF, CSI 300ETF, etc., with a total cost of over 210 billion yuan [1][2]. - Overseas funds showed a net inflow into the A - share market in the first half of 2025. As of the end of June 2025, overseas investors held 3.07 trillion yuan of A - shares. Northbound funds increased their A - share holdings in the first two quarters of 2025 [1][2]. - Since August, Chinese assets have been continuously "swept up" by global funds. The scale of the KraneShares China Overseas Internet ETF exceeded $8.5 billion, and Chinese mainland stock funds attracted over $4 billion in the past week [1][2]. - UBS believes that overseas investors have sufficient room to increase their A - share holdings. With China's economic recovery and corporate profit growth, global investors may regain confidence in the A - share market [1]. - An idle US nuclear power plant in Iowa will be re - connected to the grid to meet the power demand of AI data centers [2]. - The eurozone unemployment rate dropped from 6.3% in June to 6.2% in July, with 170,000 fewer unemployed people, matching the historical low in November 2024 [2]. - Dutch pension funds are unwinding large - scale positions in long - term interest rate swaps, causing the yields of 30 - year German and French government bonds to reach multi - year highs [2]. - Retail giants such as Walmart and Target said that price increases related to tariffs have affected food, household goods, and electronics. The worst may be yet to come for consumers and businesses [2]. - The Trump administration is considering declaring a national housing emergency to address the US housing crisis and for political purposes [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - The deep adjustment of growth - related indices on Tuesday was accompanied by the Shanghai 50 Index stabilizing the market. Central Huijin's large - scale ETF purchases and the continuous inflow of global funds into Chinese assets are the main market - influencing factors [2]. 3.4 Market Outlook - The market may enter a daily - level adjustment, which is a total adjustment since the rise in June. The probability of a sharp decline is low, and the adjustment is expected to be in the form of range - bound lateral fluctuations [2]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, expect the adjustment to be in the form of range - bound lateral fluctuations with a low probability of a sharp decline [2]. - For stock index option trading, stay on the sidelines as the market enters an adjustment period [2].

Group 1: Report's Core Information - On August 28, large - scale protests broke out in Jakarta, Indonesia, due to a civilian being killed by an armed police vehicle, and Indonesian President Prabowo's visit to China was cancelled [3] - In 2025, the global total palm oil production is 78.5 million tons, with Indonesia producing 47.5 million tons and Malaysia 19 million tons. Indonesia's palm oil production accounts for over 70% [3] - The global total palm oil export volume in 2025 is expected to be 46.16 million tons, with Malaysia exporting 16 million tons and Indonesia 24 million tons. Indonesia's share of global palm oil exports is as high as 59% [4] - Since 2020, Indonesia has strengthened the use of biodiesel additives. As of now, B40 is in implementation and B50 is under development, which leads to an increase in Indonesia's domestic demand for palm oil and a projected decrease in export volume [4] - The fourth quarter is the seasonal production - reduction period for palm oil in Southeast Asia, and there is an expected increase in demand and procurement during India's Diwali in October [4] - After last week's adjustment, palm oil will start a new round of increase with new macro - level drivers and fundamental support [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report The report focuses on the consumption demand of palladium. It points out that the demand structure of palladium shows significant overlap in core industrial fields but is highly concentrated in the automotive catalytic conversion. The total global demand for palladium has been stable but is expected to decline slightly in 2025. The price fluctuation of palladium is deeply bound to the automotive industry chain, and its demand in different fields has different trends and influencing factors. In the future, the market should focus on the expansion rhythm of traditional high - palladium - consuming fields, investment trends in emerging markets, and technology iteration trends [3][4][25]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of Palladium Demand - The demand for platinum - group metals (PGMs) in core industrial areas shows significant overlap, and the price formation has strong consistency. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in automotive catalysts, and its price is closely related to the automotive industry chain. The total global demand for palladium has remained stable at about 300 tons per year but is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [2][3][4]. - The consumption of palladium is diversified, mainly supported by the automotive, chemical, electrical and electronic, investment, dental and biomedical, pollution control and other fields. According to the WPIC forecast, the total demand for palladium will decline slightly in 2025 and will continue to decline slightly from 2025 - 2028 (compound annual growth rate of - 1%) [6][7]. Demand in Different Fields Automotive Field - The automotive industry is the most important demand side for palladium, accounting for 75% - 85% of global total demand in the past five years. Although facing challenges such as electrification and platinum substitution, the increase in palladium loading per gasoline vehicle has supported demand rigidity. In 2024, automotive palladium demand decreased by 5% to 258.6 tons, and it is predicted to decline by another 5% to about 246.5 tons in 2025 [14]. Chemical Field - The chemical field is a secondary demand side for palladium, accounting for 10% - 12% of total demand in the past five years. In 2024, the global demand was 17 tons. In 2025, affected by PTA over - capacity and refinery load reduction, the demand is expected to decline by 3% to 16.6 tons [19][22]. Electrical and Electronic Field - Palladium is mainly used in electrodes of MLCC, anti - corrosion coatings of electronic connectors, etc. in the electrical and electronic field. With the development of 5G, AI, and new consumer electronics, the demand for palladium in this field is showing a steady upward trend [23]. Jewelry Field - Palladium jewelry accounts for less than 1% of total demand. In 2024, global palladium jewelry demand decreased by 4% to 2.6 tons. In 2025, it is expected to decline by 3% - 5% due to price fluctuations and low consumer awareness [26]. Investment Field - Palladium investment includes physical investment and ETF investment, which is a core amplifier of short - term price fluctuations. In 2024, the net investment volume was 7.1 tons. In 2025, investment demand is expected to face challenges and is difficult to form a trend - supporting effect on prices [29][30][33].

联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格上涨 16 元至 2375 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货价 格上涨 5 元/吨至 2230 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 10689 手至 46.45 万手，空 头持仓减少 14866 手至 56.22 万手。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | 甲醇 | 发 震荡 | 【重要资讯】 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 84.8%，环比上涨 1.2%。海外甲醇开工率 71.9%，环 比+4.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 129.93 万吨，较上一期数据增加 22.33 万 吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 18.28 万吨；华南地区累库，库存增加 4.05 万吨。中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 33.34 万吨，较上期增加 2.26 万吨，环比涨 7.27%。 3、需求方面，西北甲醇企业签单 6.04 万吨，环比增加 3.21 万吨。样本企业订单待 21.70 万吨，较上期增加 0.96 万吨，环比涨 4.64%。烯烃开⼯率 86.4%，环⽐+ ...

Group 1: Report Core Data - As of September 1st, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimao Port was 2.45 million tons, with a weekly inventory increase of 240,000 tons [3] - Since the coking coal price bottomed out and rebounded in July, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimao Port has been in a continuous destocking phase [3] - In August, the number of clearance vehicles dropped to less than 1,000 in the last week, causing the monthly average clearance in August to decline from 1,130 vehicles per day to 1,085 vehicles per day, a 13% increase compared to the average of 960 vehicles per day in July [3] Group 2: Historical Data - From May 10th to August 31st, 2025, the daily clearance vehicle data of 288 Ports and the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area were recorded, showing a downward trend in inventory over time [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market enters a major bull market, with a 10-year cycle law evident in its operation, and the current bull market in the 2024 - 2025 period is a characteristic of the K-wave depression phase featuring science and technology innovation and AI [12]. - Against the backdrop of anti-involution, consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter, and the stock market's upward movement creates a wealth effect to boost residents' consumption ability and build a super-large Chinese market [3][15]. - Residents' savings are migrating to the stock market, and international funds will flow into Chinese assets due to the Fed's expected September interest rate cut [21][26]. - China's full AI transformation will make science and technology innovation and AI the continuous dominant styles in the stock market [31]. - The bond market serves as ammunition for the stock market's rise, with bond funds facing large-scale redemptions [36]. - Anti-involution boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, while the recovery strength of commodities after the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain [39]. - The Fed's interest rate cut is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026 [41]. - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening [46]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Cycles - The current Kitchin cycle is in an upward phase, with China's cycle expected to peak at the end of 2025 and the US in the first quarter of 2026 [7]. - China's Juglar cycle is currently in an upward phase, expected to peak in early 2027 [8]. - The current Kuznets cycle in China is expected to bottom out around 2030 [9]. - The current K-wave depression phase started in 2020 due to the COVID-19 impact and is expected to end around 2030, followed by a 10-year recovery phase. China is the center of the current technological innovation cycle, and AI is the greatest technological innovation [10]. 2. A-share Market - A-share market has a 10-year cycle law, and the current bull market is in the main uptrend. The dominant styles are science and technology innovation and AI, and related indexes and their corresponding ETFs are expected to perform strongly [12][13]. 3. Economic Growth Driving Force - Against the backdrop of anti-involution, manufacturing and infrastructure investment slow down, and exports are expected to decelerate. Consumption will become the main driving force for economic growth in the fourth quarter [15][17]. 4. Stock Market Wealth Effect - The stock market's upward movement creates a wealth effect, boosting residents' consumption ability and building a super-large Chinese market. It also promotes the migration of residents' savings to the stock market, providing funds for technological innovation [19]. 5. Capital Flow - In July, residents' savings began to migrate to equity assets, and the wealth effect of the stock market is emerging. The real interest rate approaching zero will accelerate this migration [21][25]. - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, leading to a large-scale outflow of international funds from US stocks and bonds and an influx into Chinese assets, which will drive up the Chinese equity market [26][29]. 6. AI and Stock Market Style - The release of the "Artificial Intelligence +" action indicates China's full AI transformation, making science and technology innovation and AI the continuous dominant styles in the stock market, and AI ETFs are expected to perform well [31][35]. 7. Bond Market - The stock market's rise causes a large-scale transfer of funds from the bond market, and bond funds face continuous large-scale redemptions. Anti-involution leads to rising inflation and a real interest rate approaching zero, further reducing bond holdings [36][38]. 8. Commodities - Anti-involution mainly boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, has limited impact on upstream resources, and the recovery strength of commodities after the Fed's interest rate cut is uncertain [39][40]. 9. Gold - The Fed's interest rate cut in September is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026, repeating the glory of the 1970s [41]. 10. Foreign Exchange - China is expected to achieve a double surplus in trade and capital, and the offshore RMB exchange rate is expected to continue strengthening, with a possible sharp appreciation to below 7 by the end of the year [46][49]. 11. Outlook for September of Various Asset Classes - Equity assets: A-share market enters a major bull market, with continuous capital inflows driving the market up, and the dominant style is AI + [50]. - Bond assets: Anti-involution leads to deflation exit, real interest rate approaching zero, the bond market serving as ammunition for the stock market's rise, and bond funds facing large-scale redemptions [50]. - Commodities: Anti-involution boosts consumer goods and downstream manufacturing products, with uncertain recovery strength after the Fed's interest rate cut [50]. - Gold assets: The Fed's interest rate cut in September is favorable for gold, and gold is expected to soar in 2026 [50]. - Foreign exchange assets: Trade and capital are expected to have a double surplus, and the offshore RMB is expected to continue strengthening [50].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The US July PCE inflation data met expectations with a slight increase from the previous month, having little impact on the interest rate cut expectation. Combined with the dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman and the Trump's dismissal of Cook, the market sentiment is to continue betting on a Fed rate cut in September. The intense battle in the Donetsk town between Russia and Ukraine and the death of multiple senior Houthi officials in the Israeli military air - strike led to the COMEX gold breaking through the key resistance level of $3,500 on Friday night. Attention can be paid to the two important resistance levels of 790 and 800 for Shanghai Gold on Monday. The factors such as the Fed likely entering an interest rate cut cycle in the second half of the year, the easing of global trade frictions, and the continuous gold purchases by global central banks are all positive for the gold price [6]. 3) Summary by Related Information - **US Economic Data**: The annual rate of the US July core PCE price index was 2.9%, in line with the expected 2.90% and up from the previous value of 2.80%. The COMEX gold price rose 2.89% to $3,516.10 per ounce [6][9]. - **Market Catalysts**: The dovish remarks of the Fed Chairman, the Trump's dismissal of Cook, the intense battle in the Donetsk town between Russia and Ukraine, and the death of multiple senior Houthi officials in the Israeli military air - strike influenced the gold market [6]. - **Gold Price Outlook**: The COMEX gold broke through the $3,500 key resistance level on Friday night, and attention can be paid to the 790 and 800 resistance levels of Shanghai Gold on Monday. The second - half factors like the Fed's possible interest rate cut cycle, the easing of global trade frictions, and the continuous gold purchases by global central banks are favorable for the gold price [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices are in a downward cycle with a roughly 7-year cycle, currently from 2021 - 2025. In the short term, the downside space for rebar and hot-rolled coils is limited. In the medium term, the low point of rebar and hot-rolled coils in the second half of the year is higher than that in the first half. The RB2510 contract is expected to have room for an upward movement after consolidating the bottom around 3100. The short-term range for the iron ore main contract 2601 is between 750 - 800 [4][7]. - Suggest trying to lay out long positions on the 2601 contract on dips in the medium term and setting stop-losses. Short the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar on rallies for the 10 contract. Iron ore is suitable for short-term operations [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Review - **Steel Price Trends**: Steel prices have a roughly 7-year cycle, currently in a downward phase from 2021 - 2025. In the first half of this year, steel prices fell continuously, hitting a new low in June. They rose significantly in July with a maximum increase of 16%, reaching a new high for the year, and then fell continuously in August [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel and Iron Ore Trends**: Stainless steel has been in a downward trend since 2022. Iron ore has a similar long - cycle to rebar and hot-rolled coils but with differences. It has been in a general downward trend since 2021, mainly in 2021, and has been in a wide - range oscillation between 555 - 955 from 2022 to now. Iron ore is more resistant to decline than rebar and hot-rolled coils. In the first half of the year, its lowest point was 671, not breaking last year's low of 641.5. It rose strongly in July, reaching a high of 835.5, and fluctuated between 760 - 805 in August. The main contract has been shifted to 2601 [12]. Part 2: Current Analysis - **Economic and Steel Price Relationship**: There is a high consistency between economic growth and steel prices when the investment contribution is relatively stable. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter was 5.4%, and the annual economic target is 5%. The economic growth rate in the second quarter was 5.3%, and the growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, better than expected. Anti - involution may promote economic growth and boost steel prices [21]. - **Real Estate and Steel Consumption**: As the real estate industry adjusts, the steel consumption structure is changing, with the proportion of real estate steel consumption decreasing and that of manufacturing increasing. From January to July 2025, real estate indicators such as sales, investment, new construction, and construction area all showed negative growth, making the real estate industry a drag on steel consumption [24][27]. - **Infrastructure and Steel Consumption**: The scale of local government special bonds in 2025 reached 4.4 trillion yuan, a record high. Although the total infrastructure investment increased steadily in the first half of the year with a growth rate of 4.6%, the proportion of special bonds invested in traditional infrastructure may decline [30][33]. - **Manufacturing and Steel Consumption**: The growth rate of manufacturing investment has slightly declined. However, due to policies such as large - scale equipment updates and trade - in of consumer goods, the steel demand in industries such as automobiles, home appliances, energy, and machinery is increasing. The production and sales of automobiles and excavators have increased significantly, driving steel consumption [36]. - **Home Appliance and Steel Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the growth rate of most home appliances slowed down. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in the second quarter increased compared with the same period last year, but the production schedule in the third quarter decreased significantly [42]. - **Steel Export**: Although the growth rate of steel exports in 2025 has declined compared with the previous two years, the absolute volume is still higher than the same period in previous years. However, due to the repeated US tariff policies and the increase in anti - dumping duties from major export countries, steel exports are facing obstacles [45]. - **Steel Production**: From January to July 2025, the national crude steel production was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%; pig iron production was 505.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4% [46][59]. - **Iron Ore Supply**: From January to July 2024, China's iron ore imports increased by 4.9% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 696.569 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. As of August 29, the iron ore port inventory at 45 ports was 137 million tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 318,000 tons. In July 2025, the domestic iron concentrate production was 23.119 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [64][65]. - **Analysis Logic and Trading Opportunities**: The rebar market structure has changed from backwardation to contango, while the hot - rolled coil market remains in backwardation. Pay attention to the phased trading opportunities of the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and consider shorting the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the 10 contract. Also, consider shorting the ratio of rebar to iron ore in October and November [71][80][81].