Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market faces downward pressure due to increased supply from OPEC+ and other producers, potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, and uncertain demand affected by global trade tensions [3]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to continue weakening, with the futures price hitting a new low and the spot price likely to decline further, accompanied by range - bound fluctuations [6]. - The copper market is expected to experience high - level oscillations, with multiple factors such as uncertain macro - environment, supply - demand dynamics, and dollar index influencing the price [12]. - The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [13]. - The PP market is expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as OPEC+ production increase, supply - demand dynamics, and trade negotiations [14]. - The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term, with factors like new production capacity,检修 devices, and trade negotiations influencing it [16]. - The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation, affected by factors such as supply - demand, export policies, and real - estate data [17]. - The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter, with supply pressure and market sentiment influencing the price [19]. - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend, with supply - demand dynamics and weather conditions affecting the price [20][22]. - The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations if external tariffs are implemented and domestic demand does not improve [23]. - The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations due to cost and demand factors [25]. - The urea market is currently in a weak state, with supply - demand dynamics and potential export factors influencing the price, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ is implementing a step - by - step production increase plan, and the US crude production is near a historical high. Other non - OPEC+ producers are also releasing production capacity, and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal may further increase supply [3]. - Demand: The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, but the pessimistic expectation of its impact on the economy has not been fully reversed. The trade negotiation between the US and the EU is difficult [3]. - Outlook: There is still downward pressure on crude oil prices, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and the signing of the Iran nuclear deal [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Some upstream lithium - extraction enterprises are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, but the supply pressure remains due to previous over - supply [6]. - Demand: The downstream procurement intention is weak, but there is a slight improvement in overall demand [6]. - Outlook: The supply - demand contradiction is not alleviated, and the price is expected to continue to weaken [6]. Copper - Supply: The domestic refined copper production is at a high level, and the supply tension expected by the market has not materialized [12]. - Demand: The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the demand is currently weakening [12]. - Outlook: The copper market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to multiple factors [12]. Asphalt - Supply: The asphalt production rate has declined, but the expected production in May is increasing [13]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still to be restored, affected by factors such as funds and weather [13]. - Outlook: The asphalt market is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [13]. PP - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices, but the overall supply is still affected by multiple factors [14]. - Demand: The downstream recovery is slow, and the new orders are limited [14]. - Outlook: The PP market is expected to oscillate [14]. Plastic - Supply: New production capacity is put into operation, and there are new maintenance devices, and the supply is affected by multiple factors [16]. - Demand: The downstream demand is general, and the new orders are slow to follow up [16]. - Outlook: The plastic market is expected to oscillate in the near term [16]. PVC - Supply: The PVC production rate is decreasing but still at a relatively high level [17]. - Demand: The downstream demand is still low compared to previous years, and the export is affected by policies [17]. - Outlook: The PVC market is under pressure and will enter a period of oscillatory consolidation [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The expected arrival of soybeans in May and June is large, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to be relatively loose [19]. - Demand: The downstream market is mainly replenishing based on rigid demand, and the inventory is expected to increase [19]. - Outlook: The soybean oil market is expected to be weakly volatile in the second half of the second quarter [19]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The domestic soybean crushing volume is increasing, and the supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient [20]. - Demand: The terminal demand for large - scale replenishment is limited, and the inventory is expected to increase [20][22]. - Outlook: The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a weakly oscillatory trend [20][22]. Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, and the marginal contraction is limited [23]. - Demand: Both domestic and foreign demand are under pressure, and the inventory removal is slow [23]. - Outlook: The hot - rolled coil market will continue to face supply - demand contradictions and may maintain bottom - level oscillations [23]. Rebar - Supply: The supply is still at a high level, with short - term slight increase [25]. - Demand: The demand is seasonally weakening, and the inventory removal is slow [25]. - Outlook: The rebar market will continue the pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices likely to continue weak oscillations [25]. Urea - Supply: The production in May is expected to be higher than previous years, and the supply pressure may be slightly relieved in June [26]. - Demand: The agricultural demand is cautious, and the demand from the compound fertilizer industry is weakening [26]. - Outlook: The urea market is currently weak, and may experience a small - scale rebound after agricultural demand picks up [26].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is actively promoting the listing of green - low - carbon and recycled metal futures and options such as cast aluminum alloy to serve the risk management and circular development needs of the aluminum industry [2]. - In the first four months of this year, the national actual use of foreign capital decreased by 10.9% year - on - year, while Japan, Switzerland, the UK, ASEAN, South Korea, and Germany had year - on - year growth in actual investment in China [2]. - The EU is considering removing 20 banks from the SWIFT system, lowering the price cap of Russian oil to about $45 per barrel, and banning the construction of the Nord Stream gas pipeline [2]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from May 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to increase by 3.51%, with different trends in different regions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Hot News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will strengthen the coordination between futures and spot markets and promote the listing of new futures and options [2]. - The national actual use of foreign capital in the first four months of this year was 320.78 billion yuan, a 10.9% year - on - year decrease, with some countries showing growth [2]. - The EU is planning new sanctions against Russia in the financial and energy sectors [2]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in Chinese ports decreased, and the daily port clearance volume increased [2]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in May 1 - 20 had an overall increase [3]. Plate Performance - Key commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, Shanghai copper, crude oil, and hot - rolled coils [4]. - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.76%, precious metals 30.83%, oilseeds 11.75%, soft commodities 2.46%, non - ferrous metals 18.77%, coal - coking - steel - ore 13.34%, energy 2.67%, chemicals 13.05%, grains 1.63%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.73% [4]. Plate Position - The report shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.94%, the S&P 500 fell 0.67%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 0.24% [6]. - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.07%, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.04% [6]. - Commodities: The CRB commodity index rose 0.13%, WTI crude oil rose 1.27%, and London spot gold rose 1.91% [6]. - Others: The US dollar index fell 0.82%, and the CBOE volatility index rose 9.91% [6].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/26 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.90%报 3357.70 美元/盎司， 上周累计上涨 5.35%。COMEX 白银期货涨 1.27%报 33.64 美元/盎司，上周累计上 涨 3.97%。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 0.92%，报 61.76 美元/桶，周跌 0.34%； 布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.92%，报 65.03 美元/桶，周跌 0.58%。 3. 伦敦基本金属全线上涨，LME 期铅涨 1.22%报 1994.00 美元/吨，上周累计下 跌 0.30%；LME 期铜涨 1.19%报 9614.00 美元/吨，上周累计上涨 1.76%。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约全线收跌，大豆期货跌 0.63% 报 1060.75 美分/蒲式耳，周涨 1.02%；玉米期货跌 0.86%报 459 美分/蒲式耳， 周涨 3.49%；小麦期货跌 0.18%报 543.5 美分/蒲式耳，周涨 3.52%。 5. 国 ...

Group 1: Hot News - On May 23, 2025, the People's Bank of China will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year term [2] - The chairman of China Financial Futures Exchange stated that the exchange is promoting financial futures to play dual functions of stabilizing and activating the market [2] - The chairman of Shanghai Futures Exchange said that the exchange will improve the product system and promote the R & D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, liquefied natural gas, etc [2] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17 was 227,000, the lowest since the week of April 19 [2] - Iran vowed to make a "devastating response" to any stupid act of Israel [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on are crude oil, soda ash, glass, gold, and manganese silicon [3] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.70%, precious metals rose 31.38%, oilseeds rose 11.78%, soft commodities rose 2.45%, non - ferrous metals rose 18.66%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.22%, energy rose 2.62%, chemicals rose 12.81%, grains rose 1.62%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.75% [3] Group 3: Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days (from May 16 to May 22, 2025) [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.22%, SSE 50 rose 0.19%, CSI 300 fell 0.06%, CSI 500 fell 0.95%, S&P 500 fell 0.04%, Hang Seng Index fell 1.19%, German DAX fell 0.51%, Nikkei 225 fell 0.84%, and UK FTSE 100 fell 0.54% [5] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures were flat, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures were flat [5] - Commodities: CRB commodity index fell 0.77%, WTI crude oil fell 1.25%, London spot gold fell 0.60%, LME copper fell 0.15%, and Wind commodity index rose 0.13% [5] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.34%, and CBOE volatility index was flat [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various financial and commodity sectors, including futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides upcoming economic data releases and events. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures主力合约涨跌互现，烧碱、纸浆等涨超0.4%，SC原油、氧化铝等跌超1% [2] - International precious metal futures普遍收跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.56%，COMEX白银期货跌1.39% [3] - International oil prices走弱，美油主力合约收跌1.23%，布伦特原油主力合约跌1.29% [4] - London basic metals收盘多数下跌，LME期锡、期镍、期铜均有不同程度跌幅 [5] - International agricultural product futures涨跌不一，美大豆、美玉米等有涨有跌 [6] Important Information Macro - Information - China's central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23, 2025 [9] - CFFEX is promoting the dual functions of financial futures [9] - SHFE will improve its product system and promote the R & D and listing of new varieties [9] - US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 17 were 227,000, a four - week low [10] - Iran vows a "devastating response" to any Israeli attack [11] - Trump's tax reform bill passed the House and is sent to the Senate, and the Senate passed a bill to end California's ban on fuel - powered vehicles [12] - Fed Governor Waller expects a rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs decline [13] Energy and Chemical Futures - OPEC + is discussing a possible large - scale production increase in July [16] - China's urea production increased, and domestic soda ash inventory decreased [16] - Singapore's fuel oil, light distillate, and middle distillate inventories all rose [16] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of natural rubber futures RU2509 contract [17] - US natural gas inventory increased, with a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [17] - The US was not persuaded to lower the oil price cap at the G7 meeting [18] Metal Futures - Freeport Indonesia's Manyar smelter will resume production in June and reach full capacity in December [20] - CBA expects gold prices to reach $3,750 per ounce in Q4 due to rising safe - haven demand and a weakening dollar [22] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina futures AO2509 contract [22] - The global lead market had a supply shortage in March 2025 [22] Black - Series Futures - Rebar production increased, factory inventory rose, social inventory decreased, and apparent demand declined [24] - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased by 15.9% year - on - year as of the end of April [24] - Steel social inventory in 21 cities decreased in mid - May, with a narrowing decline [24] - Global crude steel production in April 2025 decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [25] - The average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants varied by region [26] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production and exports are expected to increase in May [28] - Nigeria's palm oil prices may rise due to Indonesia's export tax increase [28] - Market rumors suggest the US government may grant small refinery exemptions, reducing biodiesel production and oil consumption [29] - IGC maintains the 2025/26 global soybean production forecast, with increased trade and consumption [29] - US soybean export net sales data for different periods [30] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased, and commercial inventory was reported [30] - The proportion of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought [30] - US cotton ON - call unpriced orders data [31] - Argentina's soybean sales accelerated in the first two weeks of May [31] Financial Market Finance - The CSRC will optimize the listing environment for technology companies and implement a more flexible IPO adjustment mechanism [33] - A - shares closed lower on Thursday, with some sectors rising and others falling [35] - Hong Kong stocks declined, but two new stocks had a strong performance in the dark - market trading [35] - CATL's H - shares will be included in MSCI indices [36] - Lenovo Group's Q4 revenue and profit increased [36] Industry - China's cumulative power generation installed capacity increased, with significant growth in solar and wind power [37] - The Cyberspace Administration of China will launch a special campaign to rectify online "black - mouth" against enterprises [37] - The world's first "Intelligent Grading of Humanoid Robots" standard was released [39] - Shanghai introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of the technology service industry [39] - A group standard for all - solid - state batteries was released [39] - TOP100 real - estate enterprises' land reserves decreased in 2024 [39] - China's narrow - sense passenger car retail sales are expected to increase in May [40] - The "JD Takeaway" platform was interviewed by the market supervision department [40] Overseas - Fed Governor Waller suggests a possible rate cut in the second half of 2025 if tariffs stabilize [41] - US manufacturing and service PMI data in May [43] - Harvard University's international student enrollment qualification was revoked [43] - US existing - home sales decreased in April, with a rising median price [43] - US initial jobless claims decreased to a four - week low [43] - Eurozone's May PMI data, with a decline in the composite PMI [44] - European Central Bank's meeting minutes and market expectations for a rate cut [44] - Japan's core machinery orders increased significantly in March [44] - Thailand's court ruled that Yingluck Shinawatra should pay compensation [46] International Stocks - US stocks closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording three - day losses [47] - European stocks closed lower due to concerns about bond yields and tax reform [47] - Berkshire Hathaway's Greg Abel met with Japanese trading company executives [48] - Kraken plans to allow non - US customers to trade stocks in token form [48] Commodity - International precious metal futures declined, affected by the US fiscal deficit, inflation, and the dollar [50] - International oil prices weakened, pressured by OPEC + production increase expectations and US inventory [50] - London basic metals mostly fell, with supply - chain changes [50] - OPEC + is discussing a production increase in July [51] - SHFE adjusted the trading fees of alumina and natural rubber futures contracts [51] Bond - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, with the central bank conducting reverse - repurchase operations [52] - A member of the Bank of Japan's council believes no intervention in the bond market is necessary [54] - US Treasury yields declined across the board [54] - European bond yields showed mixed trends [54] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [55] - The RMB ranked fifth in global payment currency in April [55] - Japan's foreign - exchange official stated that exchange rates should be determined by the market [55] - The US dollar index rose, and most non - US currencies fell [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data release schedule including UK consumer confidence, Japan's CPI, etc. [59] - Event schedule including Trump's dinner invitation, central bank operations, and corporate earnings reports [61]

Key Points Summary 1. Policy and Market News - China supports 33 least - developed African countries to fully utilize the 100% tariff - free policy for all tariff items, and from December 1st last year to March this year, China's imports from these countries reached $21.42 billion, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2] - Myanmar's Wa State was officially approved to fully resume tin ore production in late April and is gradually resuming production [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced the trading time arrangement for the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival. The market will be closed from May 31st (Saturday) to June 2nd (Monday), and resume trading on June 3rd (Tuesday). There will be no night trading on May 30th (Friday), and the night trading will resume on the evening of June 3rd (Tuesday) [2] - China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the 3.0 version of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area on May 20th [2] - As of the week ending May 16th, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory reached the highest level since the week ending October 21st, 2022; gasoline inventory increased by the largest amount since the week ending January 31st, 2025; commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves reached the highest level since the week ending July 5th, 2024. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels, a 0.21% increase [3] 2. Focus Commodities and Market Performance - Commodities to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, Shanghai copper, crude oil, and rebar [4] - Night - trading performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.65%, precious metals rose 30.91%, oilseeds and fats rose 11.98%, soft commodities rose 2.46%, non - ferrous metals rose 18.92%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals rose 13.15%, energy rose 2.58%, chemicals rose 12.97%, grains rose 1.61%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.77% [4] 3. Position and Asset Performance - Shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] - Presents the performance of major asset classes including equities, fixed - income, commodities, and others, with details on daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] 4. Major Commodity Trends - Displays the trends of major commodities such as stock market risk preferences, BDI, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, as well as risk premiums of different stock indices [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial markets, including the trends of domestic and international futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange markets. It also covers important macro - economic news, industry - specific data, and corporate earnings reports, offering a multi - faceted view of the current economic and financial situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - Domestic futures: Alumina rose nearly 2%, and some agricultural products like bean粕 and菜粕 also increased. SC crude oil fell over 1%, and several other commodities like paper pulp and short - fiber declined [2] - International precious metals: COMEX gold futures rose 0.97% to $3316.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.21% to $33.58 per ounce [3] - International oil prices: WTI crude oil fell 1.11% to $61.34 per barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.13% to $64.64 per barrel [4] - London base metals: LME nickel and aluminum rose, while lead, copper, tin, and zinc declined [4] - International agricultural products: All major US agricultural products futures rose, with different growth rates [5] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - Dalian Commodity Exchange announced trading time arrangements for the 2025 Dragon Boat Festival, including closures and resumptions [8] - China - ASEAN completed the negotiation of the FTA 3.0 version [8] - EU may share a revised trade proposal with the US [8] - Economists believe Trump's policies have a negative impact on the US economy, and CPI forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted [9] - US Commerce Secretary hopes to reach trade agreements with major partners before the tariff suspension expires this summer [10] - Tensions in the Middle East, including Israel's actions and international condemnation [11][13] Energy and Chemical Futures - Chinese asphalt refinery capacity utilization and production decreased, while methanol port inventory increased [15] - Japanese commercial crude and gasoline inventories increased, and refinery capacity utilization decreased [15] - UAE's Fujairah port's refined oil inventory changed, with different trends for different products [15] - US strategic and commercial crude oil inventories reached high levels [16] - Libya owes about $1 billion in fuel debt, and the debt may triple by the end of the year [16] Metal Futures - Copper concentrate processing fees may drop to "0 dollars" due to supply - demand imbalance [19] - Guinea designated multiple mining rights as strategic reserve areas [19] - Ivanhoe Mines suspended underground mining in Congo due to earthquakes [19] - A lithium salt enterprise in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance, affecting lithium carbonate production [20] - In March 2025, there was a supply surplus in global refined copper and primary aluminum [20] Black - Series Futures - HeSteel Group's silicon - manganese prices and procurement volumes changed in May [22] - Steel prices declined, while iron ore prices rose, and steel mills' profitability decreased [24] Agricultural Futures - Argentina's soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal exports in April were reported [26] - China's imported soybean arrivals are expected to increase in May and June, while imported rapeseed arrivals will decrease [26] - Indonesia's increase in palm oil export tax may affect its competitiveness [26] - Malaysia's palm oil production increased from May 1 - 20 [26] - Expected US soybean export net sales for different market years were given [27] Financial Markets Finance - A - shares rose, with the North - Exchange 50 hitting a new high, and some sectors performed well [29] - Hong Kong stocks also increased, with some stocks hitting new highs, and southbound funds had net inflows [29] - A - share agreement transfers need "order reconstruction" due to a surge in termination cases [29] - Analysts are optimistic about Hong Kong and A - shares, and recommend certain industries [30] - International investors' interest in Chinese assets is increasing [30] - A - share companies' repurchase and increase - holding activities are active [32] - Baidu, XPeng, Weibo, and other companies released their financial reports [32] - Hengrui Medicine's H - share is to be listed on May 23 [33] Industry - Tax authorities remind investors to declare overseas stock trading income, and some frauds occur [34] - A Shanghai real - estate project sold out all units, with high sales revenue [34] - Guangdong and Chengdu introduced real - estate support policies [36] - The National Press and Publication Administration issued game licenses [36] - Bank financial product performance benchmarks are being lowered [36] - Zhejiang plans to promote the construction of the Zhejiang - Jiangxi Canal [36] - A rumor about smuggling at Nanning Customs was refuted [37] Overseas - The US may extend tax cuts, which may increase the federal deficit [38] - Fed officials advocate patience in policy adjustment [39] - EU may submit a revised trade proposal to the US [39] - The European Central Bank is close to its inflation target and may cut interest rates [39] - Trump's tariff policies affect the investment in US assets [39] - UK's CPI rose, and the market adjusted its interest - rate cut expectations [40] - Japan's exports increased, while imports decreased [40] - Germany's economic growth forecast was lowered [40] - US top 10 billionaires' wealth increased significantly [42] - Indonesia's central bank cut interest rates [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks fell due to concerns about fiscal policies and debt risks [44] - European stocks had mixed performance, with the German DAX hitting a new high [44] - Target's sales declined, and it revised its sales forecast [44] - Canada Goose's revenue and profit exceeded expectations [45] - WeRide released its financial report and plans share repurchases [45] - iQiyi's revenue and profit declined [47] Commodities - International precious metals rose due to market uncertainties [48] - International oil prices fell due to demand concerns and inventory increases [48] - London base metals had mixed performance, and the future trend is uncertain [49] - CME may include Hong Kong in its aluminum contract delivery network [49] - Myanmar's tin mines are gradually resuming production [50] Bonds - China's bond market continued to fluctuate, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [52] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange launched bond - related pilot projects [53] - US and European bond yields rose [53] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted [54] - The US - South Korea foreign - exchange negotiation is ongoing [55] - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [57] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Multiple economic data from different countries will be released on May 22 [60] - Various news conferences, policy announcements, and corporate events are scheduled [62]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had more rising contracts than falling ones on May 21, 2025. Crude oil faces downward pressure due to supply increases and uncertain demand. The steel market is multi - faceted, with the rebar contract in a weak shock pattern. Other commodities also have their own supply - demand and market situation characteristics, with different price trends expected [3][6][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ started to gradually relax production cuts in April, increasing daily supply to 411,000 barrels in May and planning further increases. The actual increase last month was only 25,000 barrels per day, lower than the plan. The US crude production is near a historical high, and non - OPEC+ countries are also releasing capacity. The Iran nuclear deal may be signed, increasing supply pressure. Demand is affected by the lingering impact of the global trade war and is in the off - season. Crude oil has downward pressure but is also affected by geopolitical risks [3] Rebar - The rebar main contract showed a weak shock trend. Production and apparent demand increased, while factory inventory decreased and social inventory declined for the tenth consecutive week. However, the overall supply - demand pattern has not improved significantly. Supply contraction is difficult in the short term, and cost support has weakened. The market is a game between weakening demand and macro - policy support, with limited short - term upward space [6] Futures Market Overview - As of the close on May 21, domestic futures main contracts had more rising than falling ones. Alumina rose over 3%, while the container shipping European line fell over 7%. Index futures and bond futures also had different performance. In terms of capital flow, there were inflows and outflows in different contracts [8][9] Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, but actual demand is yet to recover. Refinery inventory is at a low level. With the possible signing of the Iran nuclear deal and crude oil fluctuations, asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread as it enters the peak season [11] Plastic - The plastic production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand has not fully recovered. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, plastic is expected to have a small rebound [13] PP - The PP downstream production rate increased slightly, and the enterprise production rate decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream recovery is slow. With the impact of trade negotiations and the situation of the Iran nuclear deal, PP is expected to have a small rebound [14] PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and downstream demand is still relatively low. The Indian anti - dumping policy affects exports, and inventory pressure is large. After a decline in the futures price, it may have a small rebound due to improved macro - sentiment [16] Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil main contract rose slightly. Supply pressure has eased, and demand has increased. With the opening of the export window after Sino - US negotiations, demand is expected to strengthen, and the price may rise [17][18] Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper showed an upward trend after opening low. The central bank's LPR cut and the US economic situation have different impacts on copper prices. Supply is expected to be tight, but actual reduction is not obvious. Demand is in the off - season, and copper prices are under pressure but show an upward shock trend [19] Urea - Urea showed an upward trend after opening high. Supply is stable with a slight decline, and demand is currently weak. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - to - medium term but may weaken later [21] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate showed a weak shock trend. The tariff negotiation result is good, but the fundamentals are weak. Supply is decreasing, and demand has seasonal characteristics. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [22][24]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is "Oscillating Upward", and the strategy is to "Sell Short at High Prices" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ is gradually increasing production, and there is a possibility of accelerating production increases. The actual production increase in May was lower than planned, and the implementation of compensatory production cuts is yet to be verified. The U.S. crude oil production is near a historical high, and with other non-OPEC+ countries releasing production capacity and the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, there is significant pressure on crude oil supply [1] - The most panicked period of the global trade war has passed, and some economic cooperation agreements have been reached. However, the pessimistic expectations of the economic damage caused by the trade war have not been fully reversed. Currently, it is the off-season for global crude oil consumption. With the potential signing of the Iran nuclear deal, the crude oil price has reached a resistance level, and there is still downward pressure on crude oil [1] - The signing of the Iran nuclear deal is not as optimistic as previously expected, and there are geopolitical risks, but the probability of Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future is low under U.S. pressure [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2507 contract, rose 1.18% to 470.1 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 462.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.6 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1234 to 29076 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.3 million barrels per day and the 2026 forecast at 1.28 million barrels per day. The IEA raises the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 20,000 barrels to 740,000 barrels per day, and expects the growth rate to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025. The 2026 forecast is raised by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day. The IEA also raises the 2025 global oil supply forecast by 380,000 barrels per day to 1.6 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. EIA data shows that for the week ending May 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.454 million barrels, exceeding expectations. The gasoline inventory decreased by 1.022 million barrels, and the refined oil inventory decreased by 3.155 million barrels, both exceeding expectations. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 1.069 million barrels [3] - On the supply side, OPEC's March crude oil production was revised down by 4,000 barrels per day to 26.772 million barrels per day, and its April 2025 production decreased by 62,000 barrels per day month-on-month to 26.71 million barrels per day, mainly driven by production cuts in Venezuela and Iran. The U.S. crude oil production increased by 20,000 barrels per day week-on-week to 13.387 million barrels per day in the week of May 9 [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.836 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.80%. The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 0.88% to 8.794 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 9.006 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 3.77%. The weekly demand for diesel increased by 7.27% to 3.777 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.688 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. However, the supply of propane decreased significantly, causing the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to decrease by 2.17% month - on - month [4]

Group 1: Hot News - China's latest LPR has been released, with the 1-year LPR dropping to 3% and the 5-year and above LPR dropping to 3.5%, both down 10 basis points, the first cut since October last year. State-owned banks and some joint-stock banks have also cut RMB deposit rates, with the 1-year deposit rate falling below 1% for the first time [3] - In April, the central general public budget revenue increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the national tax revenue increased by 1.9% year-on-year, both achieving positive monthly growth for the first time this year. From January to April, the national general public budget expenditure increased by 4.6% year-on-year, completing 31.5% of the budget, with the fastest expenditure progress since 2020 [3] - China's gold imports in April reached 127.5 metric tons, a new high in 11 months, a 73% increase from the previous month. Platinum imports also reached a one-year high, with 11.5 tons imported in April [3] - Summer grain procurement is ready across the country, and the peak procurement season is about to begin. It is expected that the procurement volume of new-season summer grain this year will reach about 200 billion catties [4] - As of May 19, the average transaction price of 43% protein soybean meal at major domestic oil mills dropped to 2,970 yuan per ton, a decrease of nearly 900 yuan per ton from the high in late April, reaching the lowest level since mid-January. The customs clearance of imported soybeans in China has accelerated, and the supply will continue to increase [4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, plastic, lithium carbonate, soybean meal, PVC [5] - Night trading performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 2.71%, precious metals rose 29.95%, oilseeds and oils rose 12.03%, soft commodities rose 2.51%, non-ferrous metals rose 19.03%, coal, coke, and steel ore rose 13.44%, energy rose 2.67%, chemicals rose 13.28%, grains rose 1.65%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.72% [5] Group 3: Sector Positions - The figure shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38% daily, 3.09% monthly, and 0.86% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.49% daily, 7.06% monthly, and 18.05% annually [7] - Fixed income: The 10-year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, -0.15% monthly, and -0.08% annually [7] - Commodities: The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.67% daily, 3.26% monthly, and 0.49% annually; London spot gold rose 1.86% daily, 0.03% monthly, and 25.35% annually [7] - Others: The US Dollar Index fell -0.35% daily, 0.38% monthly, and -7.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, -26.56% monthly, and 4.55% annually [7]