【冠通研究】 日内低开低走，关注后续农需启动 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内低开低走，昨日盘面日内小幅上探后，上游工厂降价吸 单，成交相对顺畅，收够 3-5 天待发，暂时无降价压力，今日盘面连连下跌， 市场情绪降温，短期价格预计稳中下行为主。基本面来看，目前尿素供应端日 产稳定在 20 万吨左右水平，部分企业检修计划有所推迟，总体来说相对充足， 后续出口陆续进行，可能有局部流动性抽调问题。需求端来看，华北地区小麦 收成已过了三成，即将迎来用肥时段，预计农业用肥将陆续展开，目前农需备 肥相对谨慎，暂未大批量集中进行。复合肥工厂终端走货好转，近期开工率或 有提升，阶段性提振尿素需求，但目前成品库存高位，预计尿素需求支撑持续 性有限，后续下月初开工率将逐渐进一步下调。本期上游工厂继续累库，主要 系需求端有所走弱，农需恢复后，或有机会去化库存。综合来看，目前尿素供 需宽松，内需环比转弱，且出口保供稳价政策下上涨动能不足，盘面弱势运行 为主，但目前仍有夏季肥用肥预期，后续农业用肥集中开启，出口消息带来需 求好转，或迎来盘面小幅反弹，空间较为有限，关注 6 月用肥情况及超预期检 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand side is marginally weakening, with downstream purchasers making rigid - need purchases and buying at low prices. As the demand enters the off - season, the downstream's ability to absorb is not strong. The rebound of the US dollar index suppresses copper prices, but the copper ore smelting end is tight. The macro - environment presents a mix of long and short factors, leading to narrow fluctuations in the copper market. It is expected that the copper market will mainly oscillate at a high level, awaiting new market drivers [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened low, then fluctuated and turned positive. Antofagasta offered a copper concentrate TC/RC of -$15 per ton to Chinese smelters this week, indicating a long - term expectation of loose supply in the copper ore segment. The US dollar index rebounded from a low this week, suppressing the upward trend of copper prices. As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound. Although the TC/RC fees are still negative, the decline has significantly slowed. In April, the output of refined copper was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper. After the recent decline in copper prices, the downstream's enthusiasm for restocking has increased, but due to the approaching holiday and the consumption off - season, this enthusiasm is not sustainable [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The market opened low, fluctuated downward, and closed lower, at 78,400. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,017 lots, an increase of 1,825 lots; the short positions were 120,398 lots, an increase of 4,197 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 130 yuan per ton, and in South China was 65 yuan per ton. On May 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,633 per ton, and the spot premium was $49 per ton [3]. Supply Side - As of May 23, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$44.3 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.44 cents per pound [4]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 154,300 tons, a slight decrease of 43,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 179,700 short tons, an increase of 30,400 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock downward" rating for the PVC industry, suggesting a strategy of "selling high" [1]. 2. Core View - The PVC market is under pressure due to factors such as a decline in upstream calcium carbide prices, a decrease in PVC operating rates, weak downstream demand, export - related policies, and high inventory levels. With the digestion of macro - sentiment and an increase in downstream wait - and - see attitudes, PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The recommended strategy is to sell high. Upstream calcium carbide prices in the mainstream areas dropped by 25 - 50 yuan/ton and then stabilized. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the May Day holiday, downstream PVC operating rates recovered but were still low compared to previous years, with cautious procurement. Indian anti - dumping policies and the upcoming rainy season in India are unfavorable for PVC exports. Social inventory continued to decline last week but remained high. Real estate data showed slight improvement in 2025 from January to April but was still negative year - on - year, and the decline in new construction and completion areas was significant. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased slightly but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces significant pressure [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PVC2509 contract increased in positions and oscillated downward, with a low of 4743 yuan/ton, a high of 4798 yuan/ton, and a final close of 4758 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, a decline of 1.02%. The open interest increased by 24,833 lots to 1,043,359 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On May 28, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4650 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2509 contract was 4758 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 108 yuan/ton, strengthening by 5 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: Shandong Xinfa, Xinjiang Yihua and other plants were shut down for maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 76.19%, remaining at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. In terms of new production capacity, in 2024, Zhejiang Zhengyang's 300,000 - ton/year production capacity was fully put into production in April, Shaanxi Jintai's 600,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in two phases (300,000 tons/year in June and the remaining 300,000 tons/year in September), and Xinpu Chemical's 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in late December. Another 250,000 - ton/year production capacity was put into production in February 2025. Attention should be paid to the progress of Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s 500,000 - ton/year production capacity expected to be put into production around June - July 2025 [4]. - **Demand**: Real estate data showed slight improvement but was still negative year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the national real estate development investment was 277.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. The sales area of commercial housing was 282.62 million square meters, a decrease of 2.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume was 270.35 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year. The new construction area of houses was 178.36 million square meters, a decrease of 23.8% year - on - year, and the completion area was 156.48 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% year - on - year. As of the week of May 25, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 9.81% week - on - week but was still at a low level in the same period over the years. The impact of real estate favorable policies on commercial housing sales needs to be observed [1][5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of May 22, PVC social inventory decreased by 2.84% week - on - week to 623,300 tons, 29.49% lower than the same period last year. Although the inventory continued to decline, it remained high [6].

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 28 日 热点品种 沪铜： 沪铜今日高开低走震荡收跌。国家统计局数据显示，1—4 月份，全国规模以上工 业企业实现利润总额21170.2亿元，同比增长1.4%。其中，汽车制造业下降5.1%。 美联储对于利率稳定的预期有所加强，美元指数小幅反弹压制铜价。刚果大型铜 矿（卡库拉）因地震停产，并撤回 2025 年产量指引，加深矿端供应趋紧预期。 供给方面，截止 5 月 23 日，我国现货粗炼费(TC)-44.3 美元/干吨，RC 费用-4.44 美分/磅，TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但下滑幅度明显放缓，冶炼厂暂时没有大幅 检修，主要系长协订单及副产品弥补亏损，但利润负值状态下，市场偏紧预期依 然存在。4 月精炼铜(电解铜)产量 125.4 万吨，同比增加 9%;进口精炼铜数量 30.02 万吨，同比降低 11.97%，国内精炼铜产量维持高位，同比增速大幅增加， ...

Group 1: Hot News - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 211.702 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. However, the automobile manufacturing industry decreased by 5.1%, the oil and gas extraction industry decreased by 6.9%, the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 48.9%, the oil, coal and other fuel processing industry saw an increased loss year-on-year, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry turned from loss to profit year-on-year [1] - Multiple car companies have recently launched price promotion activities, compressing the profit margins of upstream enterprises to 10% and extending the payment period to 120 days. Industry insiders believe the "price war" may lead to supplier losses and car quality and safety issues [1] - In May, US consumer confidence index rose significantly from 85.7 in April to 98, higher than all economists' expectations [1] - US President Trump expressed encouragement for the EU to accelerate trade negotiations. The EU is seeking to speed up trade talks with the US, focusing on key industries, tariffs, and non-tariff barriers. White House Economic Council Director Hasset said that tariffs of some countries may be reduced to 10% or lower, and a trade agreement with India is nearly completed [1] Group 2: Sector Performance Night - Market Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.73%, precious metals rose 30.37%, oilseeds rose 12.05%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.49%, energy rose 2.50%, chemicals rose 13.10%, grains rose 1.62%, agricultural and sideline products rose 2.78%, soft commodities rose 2.46%, and non - ferrous metals rose 18.90% [2][3] Key Sectors to Watch - Rubber, caustic soda, glass, rapeseed meal, and urea [2] Group 3: Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions (in lots) for multiple sectors including agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel and minerals, non - ferrous metals, soft commodities, oilseeds, precious metals, and non - metallic building materials [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.18%, the SSE 50 fell 0.52%, the CSI 300 fell 0.54%, the CSI 500 fell 0.31%, the S&P 500 rose 2.05%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.43%, the German DAX rose 0.83%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.51%, and the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.69% [5] Fixed - Income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.11%, the 5 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% [5] Commodities - The CRB commodity index fell 0.64%, WTI crude oil fell 0.65%, London spot gold fell 1.25%, LME copper fell 0.15%, and the Wind commodity index fell 1.27% [5] Others - The US dollar index rose 0.64%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [5]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/28 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.27%报 3299.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.77%报 33.39 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价走弱，美油主力合约收跌 0.75%，报 61.07 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 0.56%，报 63.76 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一，LME 期铝涨 0.79%报 2483.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 0.28%报 2709.00 美元/吨，LME 期铅跌 0.13%报 1988.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铜跌 0.15%报 9596.00 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌，大豆期货涨 0.17%报 1062.00 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货跌 0.27%报 458.25 美分/蒲式耳，小麦 期货跌 2.58%报 528.50 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内期货主力合约夜盘跌多涨少。橡胶跌超 2%，20 ...

Report Date - Morning Express on May 27, 2025 [1] Hot News - China's government implemented a package of macro - economic control policies since Q4 last year, leading to an improvement in economic indicators, stable market expectations and confidence, and enhanced medium - and long - term debt sustainability. Moody's decision to maintain China's sovereign credit rating stability reflects the positive outlook of China's economy. A series of incremental and existing policies will continue to work together for high - quality economic development [2] - The increase in freight demand has pushed up the prices in the US - bound shipping market. Many shipping companies announced rate hikes for Asia - to - US routes, with a maximum increase of $3000 for 40 - foot containers [2] - Since Q2, local governments have accelerated the use of special bonds to acquire land. As of now, nearly 3000 idle land parcels with a total area of over 133 million square meters and a total value of over 350 billion yuan are planned to be acquired using special bonds [2] - As of May 26, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1247.05 points, down 1.4% from the previous period [2] - The EU plans to speed up trade negotiations with the US. After a phone call between EU Commission President von der Leyen and Trump, Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU by more than a month to July 9 for further negotiations [2] Key Areas of Concern - Pulp, coke, glass, gold, and Shanghai gold futures [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials: 2.67% [3] - Precious metals: 30.94% [3] - Oilseeds and oils: 11.82% [3] - Soft commodities: 2.46% [3] - Non - ferrous metals: 18.91% [3] - Coal, coke, steel, and minerals: 13.36% [3] - Energy: 2.55% [3] - Chemicals: 12.92% [3] - Grains: 1.62% [3] - Agricultural and sideline products: 2.74% [3] Sector Holdings - Data shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector holdings from May 20 to May 26, 2025 [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily change - 0.05%, monthly change 2.07%, annual change - 0.15% [5] - SSE 50 Index: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 2.52%, annual change 0.55% [5] - CSI 300 Index: daily change - 0.57%, monthly change 2.37%, annual change - 1.90% [5] - CSI 500 Index: daily change 0.29%, monthly change 0.67%, annual change - 0.98% [5] - S&P 500: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 4.20%, annual change - 1.34% [5] - Hang Seng Index: daily change - 1.35%, monthly change 5.26%, annual change 16.06% [5] - German DAX: daily change 1.68%, monthly change 6.80%, annual change 20.69% [5] - Nikkei 225: daily change 1.00%, monthly change 4.12%, annual change - 5.92% [5] - UK FTSE 100: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.63%, annual change 6.67% [5] Fixed - Income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 0.13%, annual change - 0.06% [5] - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.01%, monthly change - 0.04%, annual change - 0.45% [5] - 2 - year Treasury bond futures: daily change 0.03%, monthly change 0.06%, annual change - 0.53% [5] Commodities - CRB Commodity Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 2.73%, annual change - 0.02% [5] - WTI crude oil: daily change 0.08%, monthly change 5.83%, annual change - 14.38% [5] - London spot gold: daily change - 0.46%, monthly change 1.64%, annual change 27.36% [5] - LME copper: daily change 0.00%, monthly change 5.36%, annual change 9.48% [5] - Wind Commodity Index: daily change - 0.45%, monthly change 0.36%, annual change 16.67% [5] Others - US Dollar Index: daily change - 0.15%, monthly change - 0.66%, annual change - 8.76% [5] - CBOE Volatility Index: daily change 0.00%, monthly change - 9.76%, annual change 28.47% [5]

【冠通研究】 盘面窄幅震荡，上下空间均有限 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 27 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开高走，日内小幅翻红，尾盘回落收跌。上游工厂报价稳中下 调，部分工厂开启降价收单，成交量有所好转，目前大颗粒行情优于小颗粒。 基本面来看，供应端，按隆众口径日产为 20.47 万吨，同比偏高 3.16 万吨。预 计后期煤制装置将有减产，6 月供应压力或小幅释放。需求端，农需备肥谨 慎，主交割地区山东、河南暂时未集中备肥，东北地区目前玉米追肥备肥中。 目前华北地区小麦收成已接近三成，玉米用肥在即，复合肥工厂终端走货好 转，近期开工率或有提升，但目前成品库存高位，预计尿素需求支撑持续性有 限，后续下月初开工率将逐渐进一步下调。尿素厂内库存上周累库，预计夏季 肥扫尾阶段，库存有机会进一步去化。综合来看，综合来看，尿素供给端变动 不明显，尿素出口消息带来的盘面涨幅回吐大半，主要系内需转弱影响，目前 看供需依然宽松，盘面弱势为主，目前即将迎来玉米肥用肥阶段，盘面有机会 小幅反弹，但空间较为有限。关注后续集港带来的价格波动及超预期检修状 况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1813 元/吨低开 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The macro - environment is weak, demand is marginally weakening, downstream construction has declined, and demand has entered the off - season with insufficient downstream acceptance. However, the copper smelting end is tight, and the shutdown of a copper mine in Congo has increased supply - side disturbances. Under the game of long and short forces, the copper market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures market opened low, moved low, and closed down today. The shutdown of a large copper mine in Congo due to an earthquake and the withdrawal of its 2025 production forecast have deepened the expectation of a tight supply at the mine end [1]. - As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.3 dollars per dry ton, and the RC was - 4.44 cents per pound. Although the decline has significantly slowed, the market still expects a tight supply. In April, the domestic refined copper production was 1.254 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, and the imported refined copper was 300,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.97%. The actual supply has not weakened [1]. - Downstream buyers are cautious about high - priced copper, and the demand has decreased month - on - month. Except for the real estate sector, the terminal demand is still good. As of the end of April, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.9% [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The copper futures opened low, moved low, and closed down at 78,210. The long positions of the top 20 were 108,529 lots, an increase of 6,144 lots; the short positions were 110,516 lots, an increase of 5,989 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 145 yuan per ton, and in South China was 220 yuan per ton. On May 23, 2025, the LME official price was 9,565 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 30 dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side As of May 23, the spot TC was - 44.30 dollars per dry ton, and the spot RC was - 4.44 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of May 26, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 53,900 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 162,200 tons, a slight decrease of 2,575 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 175,600 short tons, an increase of 1,024 short tons from the previous period [9].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/05/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.7%报 3342.2 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.11%报 33.645 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价小幅波动，美油主力合约持平，报 61.53 美元/桶。布油主力合约 涨 0.05%，报 64.81 美元/桶。 3. 国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收跌 0.11%报 455.9 元/桶。贵金属方面， 沪金收跌 0.23%报 779.72 元/克，沪银涨 0.29%报 8294 元/千克。纸浆跌超 2%， 甲醇、苯乙烯（EB）、纯碱跌近 2%，PX、短纤、PTA、乙二醇（EG）、聚氯乙 烯（PVC）、焦炭跌超 1%；涨幅方面，20 号胶涨超 1%。 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 1. 财政部有关负责同志表示，去年四季度以来，中国政府实施一揽子宏观经济 调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增 强，穆迪作出维持中国主权信用评级稳定的决定，是对中国经济向好前景的正 面反 ...