下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 15300.81 318.45 8984.73 285.07 2699.3 38.02 232.3 80.16 87.08 36.36 -1.50 上期 15210.12 330.58 8942.48 289.43 2817.1 40.1 234.68 81.09 87.98 35.06 -0.50 周变动 90.69 -12.13 42.25 -4.36 -117.80 -2.08 -2.38 -0.93 -0.9 1.3 -1.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11707.87 2036.49 290.54 1265.91 本期 10014.85 5834.53 6530.67 上期 11643.97 1979.37 302.35 1284.43 上期 9914.7 5987.03 6307.46 周变动 63.9 57.12 -11.81 -18.52 周变动 100.15 -152.5 223.21 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 80.74 80.08 0.66 开工率 73.627 74.514 -0.887 产量 70.39 69.82 0.57 产线条数 218 220 -2 重质产量 38.15 38.31 -0.16 产量 108.5095 110.3895 -1.88 轻质产量 32.24 31.51 0.73 厂内库存 153.86 158.74 -4.88 库存 5944.2 6236.2 -292 重质库存 81.08 84.68 -3.6 库存可用天数 26.8 27.5 -0.7 轻质库存 72.78 74.06 -1.28 库存可用天数 12.76 13.16 -0.4 产销率 106.93 108.16 -1.23 天然气利润 -223 -227.27 4.27 氨碱法毛利 -68.5 -38.5 -30 石油焦利润 21.36 -31.48 52.84 联产法毛利 -98.5 -140 41.5 煤制气利润 6.52 4.5 2.02 基差 -30 -30 0 基差 47 16 31 1-5价差 70 58 12 1-5价差 121 115 6 品种套利 纯碱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends of various futures, significant macro - economic news, and updates on financial markets including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities. It also details upcoming events and their potential impacts on relevant industries [3][7][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Different Categories Overnight Night - Market Futures Trends - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: WTI crude oil rose 1.27% to $59.7/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.04% to $63.32/barrel. Singapore fuel oil inventory increased, while light distillate inventory decreased [4][13]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.13% to $4237.9/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.86% to $57.53/ounce [5]. - **Base Metals Futures**: LME lead, zinc, and nickel rose, while aluminum, copper, and tin fell [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: At 23:00, domestic futures had more decliners than gainers. Coke and corn rose over 1%, while caustic soda and ethylene glycol fell over 1% [6]. Important Macroeconomic News - **Shipping**: There's no specific schedule for the shipping industry to resume Suez Canal voyages, with a 60 - 90 - day transition period expected [8]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On December 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for 3 months [8]. - **Tax Policy**: Since December 9, 2025, Kuwaiti - flagged taxable ships will enjoy preferential ship tonnage tax rates [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From January to October 2025, global new - energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million, up 30% year - on - year. In October, sales were 2.11 million, up 17% year - on - year but down 3% month - on - month [9]. - **US Labor Market**: US initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000 in the week ending November 29, the lowest since September 2022 [9]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: 82% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Float Glass**: As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million heavy boxes, down 4.68% month - on - month and up 23.25% year - on - year [12]. - **Alumina**: A group in Xinjiang and Yunnan conducted alumina spot procurement tenders with different winning prices [12]. - **Soda Ash**: As of December 4, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.5386 million tons, down 3.07% from last Thursday [12]. - **Singapore Fuel Inventory**: As of the week ending December 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose, light distillate inventory fell, and medium distillate inventory rose [13]. - **Saudi Crude Oil Price**: Saudi Aramco will set the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asia in January at a premium of $0.6/barrel over the regional benchmark, the lowest since January 2021 [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: As of December 4, East China port methanol inventory was 721,400 tons, down 24,100 tons from November 27 [14]. Metal Futures - **Silver**: Only about 28% of global silver minerals come from "primary silver mines". BNP Paribas predicts silver prices may reach $100/ounce by the end of next year [17]. - **Polysilicon**: In November 2025, domestic polysilicon production was 114,600 tons, down 14.48% from October. December's planned production is expected to decline further [17]. - **Gold**: The World Gold Council believes that in 2026, geopolitical uncertainty will affect the gold market, and gold prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Lithium Salt**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton lithium salt project is operating smoothly, with a daily output of 60 - 70 tons and a purity of over 99.7% [17]. - **Copper Supply**: Bridge Copper secures a monthly supply of 50,000 tons of copper concentrate and Grade A cathode copper [18]. Black - Series Futures - **Rebar**: As of the week ending December 4, rebar production and apparent demand decreased for the second consecutive week, while factory and social inventories decreased for the eighth consecutive week [21]. - **Rebar Delivery Rules**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued regulations on rebar futures delivery [21]. - **Steel Inventory**: In late November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 4.4% month - on - month [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - **Imported Cotton**: As of December 4, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 387,600 tons, up 1.92% week - on - week [23]. - **Brazilian Sugar**: As of the week ending December 3, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 11.67% [23]. - **Guangxi Sugar Mills**: As of now, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi have started the 2025/2026 crushing season, 22 fewer than the same period last year [23]. - **Pig and Corn Prices**: As of November 26, the national live - hog ex - factory price was 12.09 yuan/kg, down 1.23% from November 19. The pig - to - corn price ratio was 5.3, down 1.3% [25]. - **Indian Sugar Exports**: Since November 14, over 100,000 tons of Indian sugar export contracts have been signed for immediate delivery [25]. - **Brazilian Agricultural Product Exports**: Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes in December are expected to be 2.81 million tons, 1.33 million tons, and 4.99 million tons respectively [25]. - **Canadian Agriculture**: In 2025, Canada's wheat and rapeseed production is expected to increase by 11.2% and 13.3% respectively [26]. - **US Soybean Exports**: In the 2025/2026 season, US soybean export net sales were 1.248 million tons, and net sales to China were 232,000 tons [26]. - **Indian Soybean Oil**: Indian refiners cancelled 70,000 tons of soybean oil import contracts [27]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: In November, Brazil's soybean exports increased by 64% year - on - year to 4.2 million tons [28]. Financial Markets - **A - Shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan [31]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.68%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.45%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.86%. Southbound capital net - bought HK$1.48 billion, and Tencent was net - sold HK$1.346 billion [31]. - **Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect**: As of December 4, the total trading volume of Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect was 131 trillion yuan [31]. - **Corporate News**: Cambrian refuted rumors about production capacity, and Moore Threads listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, raising 8 billion yuan [31][32]. - **Insider Trading**: A former director of Hong Kong Central Securities Registration was found guilty of insider trading [32]. - **New Stocks**: Two Hong Kong - listed new stocks broke below their issue prices in the grey market [34]. Industry News - **Infrastructure**: The Future Network Test Facility in the information and communication field was officially put into operation [35]. - **Food Delivery**: The market regulator issued a recommended national standard for food - delivery platforms [35]. - **Real Estate**: In November, the transaction volume of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities reached a 7 - month high. In December, new - house supply is expected to decline, but sales may recover [35]. - **Electric Bicycles**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guided enterprises to optimize electric - bicycle designs [36]. - **Basketball Reform**: The General Administration of Sport issued an opinion on basketball reform, encouraging foreign investment [36]. Overseas News - **US - China Trade**: The US - China Business Council believes that tariff reduction shows the US acknowledges the negative impact of tariffs on domestic prices [38]. - **US Trade Agreement**: Trump may withdraw from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement next year [38]. - **US Economy**: US real - wage growth is higher than inflation, and there are expectations of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [39]. - **US Labor Market**: US initial jobless claims decreased, but non - farm employment decreased in November, and Challenger job cuts increased [39]. - **Japan Interest Rate**: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in December [39]. - **EU Gene Editing**: The EU reached an agreement on gene - editing technology in agriculture [40]. International Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.22%. The US SEC postponed the short - selling disclosure deadline [42]. - **European Stocks**: European major stock indexes rose, driven by positive ADP employment data in the US [42]. - **EU Financial Plan**: The EU launched a plan to break financial barriers and create a unified capital market [43]. Commodities - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions [44]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold rose and COMEX silver fell, influenced by interest - rate expectations and market demand [45]. - **Base Metals**: LME base metals had mixed performance, and a large - scale copper withdrawal plan affected copper prices [46]. - **Gold Outlook**: The World Gold Council believes gold prices may fluctuate in 2026 but could rise 15% - 3000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Saudi Aramco set the price of "Arab Light Crude" for Asia in January next year at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, the lowest level since January 2021, due to global crude oil supply surplus pressure [2] - As of the week ending December 4, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week, and factory and social inventories decreased for the eighth consecutive week. Rebar production was 1.8931 million tons, a decrease of 167,700 tons or 8.14% from the previous week; apparent demand was 2.1698 million tons, a decrease of 109,600 tons or 4.81% [2] - The CEO of Hapag - Lloyd said there is no specific timeline for the shipping industry to resume Suez Canal navigation. Any resumption will be gradual, with a 60 - 90 - day transition period to adjust logistics and avoid sudden port congestion. If the Suez Canal route re - opens in 2026, the industry will need several months to restart gradually [2] - From January to October 2025, global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. In October, sales were 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In the US, sales from January to October were 1.4 million, a 10% increase. In October, US new energy vehicle sales were 93,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 51% due to high tariffs and the cancellation of new energy subsidies [2] - According to incomplete statistics from Fantang Technology, two more sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 44 sugar mills in the 2025/2026 crushing season in Guangxi have started production, 22 less than the same period last year, and the daily sugarcane crushing capacity is about 349,500 tons, a decrease of 193,500 tons year - on - year [3] 2. Key Attention - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] 3. Night - session Performance 3.1 Plate Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.71% increase; precious metals had a 30.02% increase; oilseeds had an 8.83% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 24.59% increase; soft commodities had a 2.83% increase; coal, coke, and steel ore had a 12.12% increase; energy had a 2.82% increase; chemicals had a 10.86% increase; grains had a 1.47% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.75% increase [4] 3.2 Plate Position - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data trends are mainly shown in the graph [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.06 | - 0.33 | 15.63 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 10.79 | | | CSI 300 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 15.54 | | | CSI 500 | 0.24 | - 0.27 | 22.48 | | | S&P 500 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 16.59 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.68 | 0.30 | 29.29 | | | German DAX | 0.87 | 0.26 | 20.04 | | | Nikkei 225 | 2.33 | 1.54 | 27.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.19 | - 0.10 | 18.82 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.35 | - 0.25 | - 1.15 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.24 | - 0.14 | - 0.89 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.05 | - 0.01 | - 0.59 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.55 | 0.81 | 2.43 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.27 | 2.23 | - 16.99 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.12 | - 0.25 | 60.35 | | | LME Copper | - 0.47 | 2.31 | 30.21 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.41 | 0.85 | 34.93 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.20 | - 0.38 | - 8.68 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 1.65 | - 7.32 | [6] 5. Main Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn through graphs, but specific data trends are mainly shown in the graphs [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. The supply side has an increasing PVC operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side is affected by the ongoing adjustment of the real estate industry, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is basically stable. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about China's PVC exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes have generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton, and last week's export orders have declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still near the lowest level in recent years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The meeting on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition has given some boost to bulk commodities, but factors such as the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the traditional off - season in December will lead to a weak and volatile PVC market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,483 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,540 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,500 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.90% and a decrease in positions of 31,263 to 990,081 hands [2]. Basis - On December 4th, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,435 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,500 yuan per ton. The current basis is - 65 yuan per ton, strengthening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Side**: The operating rates of some devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year, Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year, and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year, have been put into production or are operating at low loads [4]. - **Demand Side**: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. The sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. As of the week of November 30th, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices rebounded recently due to gas - curtailment expectations, macro - level boosts, and export rumors, but the high - price acceptance of downstream buyers needs attention. As it is approaching the contract roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1] - The short - term spot price of urea is expected to be stable. The demand side is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly. The daily output is expected to decrease further with the shutdown of southwest plants [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened higher and weakened during the day. After the trading volume improved, upstream factories raised prices. Although the futures closed down, the pending orders were still sufficient. The daily output decreased slightly due to winter natural gas curtailment and is expected to decline further with southwest plant shutdowns. The demand side strengthened, with the compound fertilizer factory's operating load increasing by 3.47%. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,695 yuan/ton, closed at 1,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,281 lots and short positions increased by 739 lots. For example, Ping An Futures had a net long increase of 1,567 lots and Dongzheng Futures had a net long decrease of 2,657 lots [2] - On December 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 9,353, an increase of 1,588 compared to the previous trading day. For instance, Jiashili Pingyuan (Yuntu Holdings UR) increased by 176 lots [2] Spot - After the transaction improved, upstream factories raised prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,690 yuan/ton, with Henan factories offering lower prices [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.48% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a 5.38% decrease [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 5, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period, a 10.53% increase [10] Downstream Data - From November 29 to December 5, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.53%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 61.66%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week [12]

每日核心期货品种分析 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 04 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超 ...

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1710 20 河南 1710 1690 20 山东 1710 1680 30 山西 1570 1540 30 江苏 1700 1680 20 安徽 1700 1690 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1700 1690 10 山东华鲁 1700 1690 10 江苏灵谷 1720 1720 0 安徽昊源 1660 1650 10 山东05基差 -72 -54 -18 山东01基差 -88 -73 -15 河北05基差 -42 -34 -8 河北01基差 -58 -53 -5 1-5价差 65 69 -4 5-9价差 -16 -19 3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 9353 7765 1588 中东FOB 384 384 0 美湾FOB 369 369 0 埃及FOB 460 460 0 波罗的海FOB 367.5 367.5 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt supply is expected to slightly increase as some refineries resume production, while demand will weaken further due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 34.4 million tons year-on-year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined last week. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.74% to 26.21 million tons week-on-week, at a neutral level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price oscillated at a low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened. This week, the asphalt operating rate will slightly increase, but overall demand will be weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has been falling, and the basis is at a neutral level. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 1.06% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,941 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 2,972 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 8,340 to 104,372 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price of asphalt in Shandong continued to fall to 2,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to October decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was flat compared with that from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry from January to October decreased by 4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed assets investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September. As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 5 percentage points to 29% week-on-week. From the perspective of social financing stock, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock from January to October was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations. In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增 ...