3. 中国贸促会与美国大豆出口协会在华盛顿举行座谈。中国贸促会会长任鸿斌与美国大豆出口协会首席执行官苏健就加强农 业领域务实合作等议题进行交流。中国企业代表中粮油脂、优合集团等相关负责人参会。 4. 路透公布对USDA 12月供需报告中美国农作物期末库存的数据预测，分析师平均预计，美国2025/2026年度大豆期末库存为 3.02亿蒲式耳，预估区间介于2.5-3.85亿蒲式耳，USDA此前在11月预估为2.9亿蒲式耳。 早盘速递 2025/12/8 热点资讯 1. 据广期所，经研究决定，新增新疆晶诺新能源产业发展有限公司"晶诺"牌、新疆东方希望新能源有限公司"东方希望" 牌为多晶硅期货注册品牌。 2. 据上海国际能源交易中心，经研究决定，自2025年12月9日（星期二）收盘结算时起，交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度调整 如下：原油、低硫燃料油期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调 整为9%。 板块持仓 (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1710 1710 0 山东 1720 1710 10 山西 1560 1570 -10 江苏 1710 1700 10 安徽 1700 1700 0 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1710 1700 10 山东华鲁 1710 1700 10 江苏灵谷 1730 1720 10 安徽昊源 1660 1660 0 山东05基差 -68 -72 4 山东01基差 -88 -88 0 河北05基差 -38 -42 4 河北01基差 -58 -58 0 1-5价差 56 65 -9 5-9价差 -20 -16 -4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 10485 9353 1132 中东FOB 384 384 0 美湾FOB 369 369 0 埃及FOB 460 460 0 波罗的海FOB 367.5 367.5 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 仓单 免责声 ...

铜价延续走强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开高走，日内上涨，全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后， 计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏紧预期将有缓 解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12 月铜国 内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼厂依靠副产品 及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万 吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买兴下降， 铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的减少。LME 铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，提振铜乐观预期，且美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万 人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，降息预期再度增长，美元下挫，支撑金属价格上涨， 且前期国内产业端反内卷呼声影响冶炼端后续产量的增减情况，铜价再度上涨，目前国 内宏观乐观预期强，多重因素刺激沪铜攀升，但目前高价下，现货成交转弱，谨慎高位 回调。 【冠通期货研 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 弱势回调 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，日内震荡下跌。尿素现货价格小幅上涨，待发支撑 下，报价依然坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1700 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端，其他地方工厂成交价略有上移。日产 回落后，压力有缓解，但目前肥易通数据显示，依然在 19 万吨以上徘徊。后续 随着西南地区装置的不断停车，将继续降低产量。需求端继续走强，本期复合 肥工厂开工负荷提升 3.47%，冬储肥生产阶段，厂内成品库存开始累积增加， 终端备肥相对顺畅，工厂将继续提升开工负荷，支撑原料端价格。其他工业需 求同样稳中有增，尚且未拖累尿素需求。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。综合来看，近期限气预期、宏观提振及出口传闻，冬 储需求均支撑尿素价格，盘面下方有支撑，临近移仓换月，谨慎多空，关注周 末收单情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内震荡下跌， 最终收于 1673 元/吨，收成一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - As of the week ending December 5, PP downstream operating rate increased 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week-on-week, remaining at a relatively low level for the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, remained flat at 44.1% week-on-week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week-on-week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 5, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the first phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing decreased to around 27%. At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period in recent years. The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors and pipeline damage, with crude oil prices oscillating at a low level. In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving are decreasing, and the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and the trade - off between supply and demand of PP remains unchanged overall. With no further macro - level positive news, it is expected that PP will experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, PP downstream operating rate increased 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level for the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, remained flat at 44.1% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 5, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the first phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard drawing decreased to around 27%. At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period in recent years. The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors and pipeline damage, with crude oil prices oscillating at a low level. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving are decreasing, and the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and the trade - off between supply and demand of PP remains unchanged overall. With no further macro - level positive news, it is expected that PP will experience weak oscillations in the near future [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The PP2601 contract oscillated with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6,361 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,417 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,382 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.39%. The open interest decreased by 9,112 lots to 459,901 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. Drawing was reported at 6,150 - 6,450 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 5, new maintenance devices such as the second line of the first phase of Zhongjing Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 82%, a moderately low level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week ending December 5, PP downstream operating rate increased 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level for the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawing, remained flat at 44.1% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level for the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 5, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film entering the end of the peak season and orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and the trading atmosphere of plastics is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%. The position increased by 7056 lots to 393540 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price range from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8390 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6880 - 7580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 5, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: The Friday's petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fluctuated around 63 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 720 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 1 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增加 ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. Although the cancellation of India's BIS policy on PVC and the meeting on price competition cost standards offer some support, factors such as the decline in the Taiwan Plastics' December quotes, the traditional off - season in December, high inventory, and slow real - estate improvement lead to limited positive impacts, and the PVC price is likely to continue its weak performance [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC production rate decreased slightly by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream production rate also declined slightly, and the downstream product orders are poor [1]. - India terminated its BIS policy on PVC, reducing concerns about Chinese PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled, but the Taiwan Plastics' December quotes dropped by 30 - 60 dollars per ton, and last week's export orders decreased [1]. - The social inventory of PVC continued to increase. As of the week of December 4, it increased by 1.55% to 105.89 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is still large [1][6]. - The real - estate industry is still in the adjustment phase. From January to October 2025, the investment, new construction, and completion areas of real - estate decreased significantly year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion further declined [1][5]. - The National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study price competition cost standards, which gave some boost to bulk commodities. However, the expected decline in the production rates of some enterprises led to only a limited decrease in PVC output, and the futures warehouse receipts remained at a high level [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The PVC2601 contract decreased by 1.71% to 4426 yuan per ton, with a low of 4413 yuan per ton and a high of 4503 yuan per ton. The trading volume increased by 7370 lots to 997451 lots [2]. - **Basis**: On December 5, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4410 yuan per ton. The basis of the V2601 contract was - 16 yuan per ton, strengthening by 49 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a slightly low - neutral level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The production rates of some enterprises such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu decreased. New production capacities include Wanhua Chemical's 50 - million - ton - per - year plant in production since August, Tianjin Bohua's 40 - million - ton - per - year plant expected to be stably producing by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf's 20 - million - ton - per - year plant close to full - load operation, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 30 - million - ton - per - year plants operating at low loads after commissioning [4]. - **Demand**: The real - estate industry improvement needs time. From January to October 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 7356.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area, new construction area, and completion area also decreased significantly year - on - year. As of the week of November 30, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% month - on - month but remained near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% to 105.89 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory was still at a high level [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the asphalt futures price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The supply side may see a slight increase in the asphalt operating rate, while the demand side will further weaken as road construction in the north gradually winds down due to the dropping temperature and the incremental projects in the south are limited. Currently, the market is cautious about the winter storage contracts, and the price in Shandong has been falling, with the basis remaining at a neutral level [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 34.4 million tons (13.8%) year-on-year [1]. - The operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends this week. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased by 7.06% to 280,600 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. The distillation unit in Venezuela's Jose Industrial Zone has been shut down, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened. Next week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, which will slightly increase the asphalt operating rate [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2601 fell 0.30% to 2,948 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,926 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,958 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 13,629 to 90,743 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong continued to decline to 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract dropped to -18 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year [4]. - From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, with the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. The actual cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry from January to October 2025 was -4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September 2025, still in a negative growth situation. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October 2025 was -0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September 2025 [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29% week-on-week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared to the week of November 28, and it is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...