【冠通期货研究报告】 多因素共振支撑铜价上行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 4 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内偏强，全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后， 计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏紧预期将有缓 解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12 月铜国 内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼厂依靠副产品 及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万 吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买兴下降， 铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的减少。LME 铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，提振铜乐观预期，且美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万 人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，降息预期再度增长，美元下挫，支撑金属价格上涨， 且前期国内产业端反内卷呼声影响冶炼端后续产量的增减情况，铜价再度上涨。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备 ...

PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.26个百分点至53.83%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率环比下降0.14个百分点至44.1%，塑编订单环比持平，略低于去年同期。12月4日，东莞巨正 源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至83%左右，处于中性偏低 水平，标品拉丝生产比例下降至29.5%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水 平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成 影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达 成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产， 近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，BOPP膜价格下跌后暂稳， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。国家发展改革委会同有 关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品 一定提振，但PP供需格局整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The plastics supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 4th, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 restarted, and the plastics operating rate rose to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 28th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% week - on - week. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. With new production capacity put into operation, it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in position, oscillated, and declined. The lowest price was 6,753 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,776 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.53%. The position volume decreased by 16,226 lots to 386,484 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,070 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,520 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,850 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 4th, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 restarted, and the plastics operating rate rose to around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% week - on - week. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 685,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around $63/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $740/ton week - on - week [4]

早盘速递 2025/12/4 热点资讯 1.美国11月"小非农"创两年半来最大降幅，美联储降息预期进一步升温。最新公布的ADP就业数据显示，11月私营企业减少 3.2万个工作岗位，为2023年3月以来最大降幅，远不及市场预期的增加1万个。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基 点的概率接近90%。 2.据硅业分会，展望12月，根据各企业排产计划，国内多晶硅产量预计仍将维持在12万吨以内，环比小幅回升，增量主要来自 通威等企业的检修复产以及其他企业的复产爬坡。 冠通期货研究咨询部 王 静，执业资格证号F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 第 3 页，共 3 页 板块表现 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、碳酸锂、沪锡、PVC 夜盘表现 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% -2.00% -1.00% 0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓 ...

2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.8%，报 59.11 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 0.54%， 报 62.79 美元/桶。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/04 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.33%报 4234.8 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.39% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the organization's overall oil production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing producers will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. After the end of the peak oil demand season, EIA data shows that US refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and US crude oil inventories also increased more than expected due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventories increased slightly. US crude oil production is near a record high, but the number of active US oil drilling rigs decreased by 12, raising expectations that low oil prices will limit US crude oil growth. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term, the US - Venezuela military stand - off has escalated, and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium was attacked. With the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations rising, it is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate at a low level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The end of the peak oil demand season, a decline in the US November ISM manufacturing index, and continuous production increases by OPEC+ and increased exports from the Middle East have led to a continuous increase in global floating crude oil storage. The crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus pattern. However, due to the difficulty of reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, the attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, and the rising expectations of a Fed interest - rate cut, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, fell 1.15% to 448.1 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 444.6 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 452.8 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 249 to 31,517 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global liquid fuel production to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, and has raised its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day. OPEC has adjusted the Q3 2026 global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. IEA has raised its forecasts for global crude oil supply and demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026 [5] 3.4 Inventory and Supply Data - As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected: 55,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels (expected: 745,000 barrels), and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels (expected: 556,000 barrels). Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels. OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day. OPEC+ October production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day [6] 3.5 Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, 0.33% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.789 million barrels per day, 0.06% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.743 million barrels per day, 0.17% lower than the same period last year. The single - week supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.41% month - on - month [7][8]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月03日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格上涨50元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%， PVC开工率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率基本稳定。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策 终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，只是 中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨，上周出口签单环比回落。上周社会库存小幅增加， 目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面 积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成 交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值， PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃 耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开 会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The plastics market is expected to have limited upside space in the near term due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, despite some support from policies. The开工率 of plastics has slightly declined, downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, and the cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level [1] - New production capacities were put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream开工率 will decline in the future, with weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract oscillated with a position reduction, closing at 6808 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the position decreased by 4354 lots to 402710 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton, and different types of PE had different price ranges [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, with orders in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors declining [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 70 tons, 5.5 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around 63 dollars/barrel, and ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt supply is expected to increase slightly, with开工率 rising due to some refineries resuming production and others switching production. However, demand will weaken further as road construction in the north winds down with the dropping temperature and project growth in the south is limited. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts. Overall, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in recent years compared to the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, some refineries will switch production, while others plan to resume production, and the开工 rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand side: Last week, most downstream industries'开工率 declined, with road asphalt开工率 dropping by 5 percentage points to 29% due to funding and weather constraints. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and overall demand will be weak [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 28, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio remained flat week - on - week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Crude oil: The latest sanctions by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a potential cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace negotiation in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under US military threats [1]. - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong has declined recently, and the basis is at a neutral level. Some refineries have started to release winter storage contracts, but the market is cautious [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 0.41% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,884 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,957 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 23,392 to 112,712 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong has continued to decline to 2,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract has dropped to - 2 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt开工率 has increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year [4]. - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate remaining the same as that from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to October was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4].

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1710 1710 0 河南 1690 1680 10 山东 1680 1680 0 山西 1540 1540 0 江苏 1680 1680 0 安徽 1690 1680 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1690 1690 0 山东华鲁 1690 1680 10 江苏灵谷 1720 1710 10 安徽昊源 1650 1650 0 山东05基差 -54 -73 19 山东01基差 -73 -87 14 河北05基差 -34 -63 29 河北01基差 -53 -77 24 1-5价差 69 66 3 5-9价差 -19 -14 -5 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 7765 7887 -122 中东FOB 384 384 0 美湾FOB 369 369 0 埃及FOB 460 460 0 波罗的海FOB 367.5 367.5 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 2025/12 ...