Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The short - term rainfall in the US soybean producing areas is abundant, which is beneficial to soybean growth. As of last week, domestic soybean inventories continued to accumulate and are currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal inventories are gradually accumulating but are still at a low level. With a significant increase in开机压榨, soybean meal inventories are expected to accumulate at an accelerated pace in June. In the short term, the soybean meal market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to policy and weather changes [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the main soybean meal contract (Zhangjiagang) on June 4 showed different values in various regions, such as 2500 in Dalian (down 19), - 79 in Tianjin (down 24), - 119 in Rizhao (down 24), etc. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) also varied by region, with - 39 in Zhangjiagang (down 4). The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 133 (down 76) [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 70, and the spread on the main contract was 396 (up 18). Other spreads like M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, and RM9 - 1 also had corresponding values [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Data on Chinese port soybean inventories, national major oil - mill soybean inventories, feed - enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil - mill soybean meal inventories were presented, showing trends from 2020 to 2025 [4]. 3.4开机 and Pressing Data - Information on the national major oil - mill开机 rate and soybean pressing volume was provided, with trends from 2020 to 2025 [4]. 3.5 Supply and Demand - In terms of supply, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China is expected to exceed 10 million tons in May, June, and July. The current purchase - shipping progress is 94.4% in June, 80.6% in July, and 33.8% in August. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth. In terms of demand, from the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, the poultry inventory remains at a high level, the cost - performance of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions and pick - up have improved [4][5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a rising trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, demand recovery on US routes, and trade policy news [8]. - It is recommended to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value of 1586; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.92% from 1107. SCFI - US West has a current value of 5172, a 57.92% increase from 3275; SCFIS - US West is at 1718, down 0.12% from 1720; SCFI - US East is 6243, up 45.73% from 4284; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1587, up 20.50% from 1317. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1252, up 0.40% from 1247; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3061, up 31.49% from 2328 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivatives Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: Contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc. have shown price increases. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1970.3, up 4.02% from 1894.1; EC2508 is at 2199.1, up 4.71% from 2100.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: There are changes in contract positions. For instance, EC2506's position has decreased by 1467 from 10553 to 9086, while EC2508's position has increased by 2192 from 45769 to 47961 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads and Changes**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of 816.1, up 54.9 from 761.2; the 12 - 2 spread is - 187.1, up 13.2 from - 200.3; the 12 - 4 spread is 330.9, down 26.5 from 357.4 [5]. 3.3 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **EU - US Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Trade Policy**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term, but tariffs on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum will continue [7]. 3.4 Market Situation and Strategy - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates on European routes in June. For example, MSC's online opening price is 2600$/FEU, and Maersk's price has increased from 2200$/FEU to 2300$/FEU. Some companies are also looking to raise prices in late June [8]. - **Futures Market**: Last week, the main - contract futures price declined due to the unmet expectations of the US - route rush shipping. This week, the 6 - and 8 - month contracts are driving up the prices of far - month contracts due to the expected price increase in late June [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 免责声 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料,国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任何 保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要,投资者需 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推 授授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/5 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 462.5 | 468. 2 | 5. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情微幅震荡,PTA去库 | | SC | PTA-SC(元 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyester downstream load remains at 91.8% despite the expected reduction, and recent promotions have helped with inventory clearance [2] - PTA will undergo inventory reduction in the coming period, and the actions of mainstream factories to increase basis sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tighter [2] - The changes in the sales strategies of large PTA factories, especially the act of canceling warehouse receipts to sell spot goods, are effectively changing the market's view on PTA positive spreads [2] - It is difficult for downstream production cuts to form a unified force. Even though polyester has been publicizing centralized production cuts, it is hard to see effective actions in the market, and the downstream's resistance to the upstream seems ineffective [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4915 to 4865, a decrease of 50 [2] - MEG domestic price decreased from 4479 to 4417, a decrease of 62 [2] Futures Price Changes - PTA closing price increased from 4628 to 4670, an increase of 42 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4306 to 4292, a decrease of 14 [2] Short Fiber Data - 1.4D direct-spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 50 to 6545 [2] - Short fiber basis increased from 93 to 107, an increase of 14 [2] - 7 - 9 spread increased from 48 to 78, an increase of 30 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] Bottle Chip Data - Polyester bottle chip prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets decreased by 30 yuan/ton on average, with the price range at 5940 - 6050 yuan/ton [2] - Various types of bottle chip prices (including East China water bottle chips, hot - filled polyester bottle chips, etc.) generally decreased by 29 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 260 to 295, an increase of 34.52 [2] Yarn Data - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee decreased from 4055 to 4005, a decrease of 50 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16530 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1766 to 1728, a decrease of 38.82 [2] Load and Production and Sales Data - Direct - spun short fiber load increased from 88.90% to 91.30% [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 65.00% to 68.00%, an increase of 3.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term fluctuations of stock indices are dominated by overseas variables, but Trump's administration has a changeable style, and tariff policies still face significant uncertainties. Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, and the policy level is in a relative vacuum. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for futures index operations and be cautious about chasing rising prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DRO01 closed at 1.41 with a - 0.03bp change; DR007 at 1.55 with a 0.53bp change; GC001 at 1.49 with a - 1.00bp change; GC007 at 1.59 with a - 0.50bp change; SHBOR 3M at 1.65 with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds decreased by 1.28bp, 1.80bp, and 0.81bp respectively, while the 10 - year US treasury bond remained unchanged at 4.46 [4] - The central bank conducted 2149 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2155 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6 billion yuan. This week, 16026 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. After the monthly bank assessment, the money market has become looser, and the central bank uses various tools to maintain reasonable liquidity [4][5] 3.2 Stock Index Market - Yesterday, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.43% to 3868.7, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.13% to 2690.8, the CSI 500 rose 0.78% to 5739, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.88% to 6123.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.15 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 116 billion yuan. Most industry sectors rose, while aviation, logistics, and aerospace sectors declined [5] - Rumors of Sino - US trade negotiations have affected the market. Stock indices have rebounded for two days but have not broken through key resistance levels, and trading volume has not significantly increased. Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, and the policy level is in a vacuum. It is recommended to wait and see for futures index operations [6] 3.3 Futures Contract Market - For IF, the trading volume was 69824 with a - 7.1% change, and the open interest was 229448 with a - 2.9% change. For IH, the trading volume was 31907 with a - 20.4% change, and the open interest was 78806 with a - 3.8% change. For IC, the trading volume was 58090 with a - 16.3% change, and the open interest was 206376 with a - 3.4% change. For IM, the trading volume was 151505 with a - 7.9% change, and the open interest was 315489 with a - 1.8% change [5] - The IF basis for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts was 15.53%, 14.05%, 0.02%, and 6.60% respectively. The IH basis was 14.60%, 14.62%, 6.77%, and 3.65% respectively. The IC basis was 19.96%, 17.35%, 14.18%, and 11.80% respectively. The IM basis was 25.77%, 21.73%, 18.19%, and 15.27% respectively [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is mainly weak. On the supply side, due to the price increase during the week, some integrated plants have hedging space, and the weekly output of the lithium carbonate industry has increased, while the material demand is relatively stable. The cost of lithium carbonate has decreased moderately, forming a negative feedback loop. The reduction or suspension of production at the mine end is needed to break this, but it has not occurred yet, which is a key variable to monitor in the future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2506 is 61,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.48%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2507 is 61,080 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.55%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 61,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.52%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 61,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.75%; the closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 61,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.25% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 630 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 675 yuan/ton; the price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1185 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5700 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6640 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [1][2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,315 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 144,690 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,875 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,055 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [2] Price Differences - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 830 yuan/ton, down 1190 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 60 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 140 yuan/ton, down 260 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 131,571 tons, down 208 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 56,235 tons, down 780 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 41,616 tons, up 752 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 33,720 tons, down 180 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 33,397 tons, down 60 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 60,977 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 1568 yuan/ton; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 64,355 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6439 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - On June 2, 2025, it was reported that the lithium mining development plan of the Uyuni Salt Flats in Bolivia had suffered a major setback. The Coloha K Mixed Court ruled last week to suspend two large - scale lithium mining agreements signed between Bolivia and China and Russia in 2023 - 2024, worth over 2 billion US dollars, involving the Chinese CBC consortium (including CATL) and a subsidiary of the Russian state nuclear energy company Rosatom [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On June 4, 2025, SP2601 was 5250, up 0.23% day - on - day and 0.65% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5298, down 0.11% day - on - day and up 0.46% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5236, up 0.27% day - on - day and 1.00% week - on - week [1] - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6150, down 0.81% day - on - day and week - on - week; Knitted Coniferous was 5320, down 1.48% day - on - day and 0.56% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4120, down 0.72% day - on - day and up 0.49% week - on - week [1] - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged [1] - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6046, unchanged; Chilean Star was 4587, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply** - **Imports in April 2025**: Coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; Broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month [1] - **Shipments to China**: In April 2025, shipments of coniferous pulp to China decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and shipments of broadleaf pulp to China increased by 26.7% year - on - year. In March 2025, shipments to China were 1813, up 20.70% month - on - month [1] - **Domestic Production**: In late May 2025, broadleaf pulp production fluctuated around 20 tons, and chemimechanical pulp production was around 20 tons [1] - **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, pulp port inventory was 216.1 tons, up 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% increase [1] - **Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, it was 25.20 tons, down from the previous period [1] - **Demand**: In late May 2025, among the main finished paper products, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor, and downstream paper mills made rigid purchases [1] Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On June 4, 2025, the Russian needle basis was 22, with a quantile level of 0.755; the Silver Star basis was 852, with a quantile level of 0.971 [1] - **Import Profit**: On June 4, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104, with a quantile level of 0.78; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 467, with a quantile level of 0.206 [1] Summary - **Supply**: Chilean Arauco's June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk quotes were flat. Broadleaf pulp is expected to resume partial supply in July (limited quantity) [1] - **Demand**: The implementation of price increase letters from cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers was poor, and downstream paper mills made rigid purchases. The output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, pulp port inventory showed a slight accumulation trend [1] - **Strategy**: Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]

| 1 | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业资格证号 | | 投资咨询证号 | 2025/6/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 谢威 | F03087820 | | Z0019508 | | | 团日 | | 地区 | 2025/6/4 | 涨跌值 | 升贴水 | 与2509基差 | 涨跌值 | | / 报 糖 | 广西 | 南宁仓库 | 6190 | 0 | 0 | 442 | -16 | | 吨价现 | 云南 | 昆明 | 5910 | -40 | -100 | 262 | -56 | | い、賞 | | 大理 | 5855 | -15 | -140 | 247 | -31 | | 元集 | 山东 | 日照 | 6270 | 0 | 100 | 422 | -16 | | 数 盘 | | SR09 | 5748 | 16 | | | 9 | | 据 面 | | SR01 | 5624 | 7 | SR09-01 | 124 | | | दि | 人民币兑美元 | 7. 2065 | -0. 0141 | ice原糖主 ...

| CTEERING | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特给省调言:ZOOULI | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 当前国内政策对股指的驱动力度不强,海外因素主导股指的短期 | 波动。鉴于关税政策的不确定性仍然较大,期指建议观望为主。 | | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 震荡 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | | 避险升温提振金价;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 看多 | 車金 | 跟随黄金,且受益于弹性,显著补涨。 | T 白银 | | | | 美国关税政策反复,风险偏好承压,但铜基本面仍有支撑,短期 | 震荡 | 价格高位震荡。总 | | | | | | 近期国内电解铝社会库存持续下滑,现货升水走高,电解铝低库 | 存对铝价仍有支撑。但亲观情绪反复,且国内铝下游需求转淡, | 開汤 | 铝价或震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续走高,期货贴水明显, ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 【C 国贸易所得 宏观金融数据日报 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 期货执业证号:F3074875: 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 2025/6/4 热评:本周央行公开市场将有16026亿元逆回购到期,其中周三至周五分 别到期2155亿元、2660亿元、2911亿元。5月20日贷款市场报价利率 (LPR) 为 : 1年期LPR为3.0%(上次为3.1%)，5年期以上LPR为3.5%(上次为 半 H 市 场 与 五】 | AJ | (== () / ) = = ( / ) = ( / ) = ( / / ) = / | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 性 | 3.6%）。与此同时，5月20日早间，国有大行和部分股份行陆续更新了存 款挂牌利率,这也是去年10月之后,存款利率时隔7个月再次下调,也是 | | | | | | | | 大行自2022年9月以来第七次主动下调。此次调整后，国有大行活期存款 利率跌破0.1%,定期存款中1年期利率跌破1%。 | | | | | | | ...