Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The positive signals from the Sino - US economic and trade talks are expected to drive short - term strength in stock indices [1]. - The situation of asset shortage and weak economy is favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward movement [1]. - Different commodities have different trends: some are expected to rise, some to fall, and some to fluctuate, which are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy uncertainties [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to be strong in the short term due to positive signals from Sino - US economic and trade talks [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warnings limit upward movement [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to fluctuate in the short term and has a solid long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver is expected to remain strong but there is a risk of a sharp pullback [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper is expected to remain strong due to the boost of the Sino - US leaders' phone call [1]. - Aluminum may fluctuate weakly due to repeated macro - sentiment and weakening downstream demand despite low inventory support [1]. - Alumina may rebound in the short term due to rising spot prices, significant futures discounts, and mine - end disturbances [1]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate in the medium - to - long term due to uncertainties in tariff policies and potential oversupply of primary nickel [1]. Black Metals - Iron ore may fluctuate as the iron - making volume is expected to peak and there is an expected increase in supply in June [1]. - Manganese silicon and silicon iron have different supply - demand situations, with manganese silicon having heavy warehouse receipt pressure and silicon iron having a tight supply - demand balance due to production cuts [1]. - Steel products such as hot - rolled coils and stainless steel have different trends based on factors like cost, supply, and demand [1]. Agricultural Products - Corn is expected to be strong in the medium term due to tightening supply - demand, but its upward potential is limited by domestic substitute grain prices [1]. - Soybean meal is expected to face pressure on the spot basis and near - month contracts due to expected inventory accumulation in June [1]. - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to change in the 2025/26 season, and the future production may be affected by the crude oil price [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and fuel oil are expected to fluctuate, affected by OPEC+ production decisions, geopolitical situations, and seasonal consumption [1]. - PTA, ethylene glycol, and other chemical products have different trends based on factors such as cost, supply, and demand [1]. - Urea may rebound, while methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [1]. Others - Shipping container freight on the European route has a "strong expectation, weak reality" situation, and certain trading strategies are recommended [1]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak demand and lack of news guidance [1].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询号:Z0021658 从业资格号:F03110419 2025/6/6 | | 指标 | 6月5日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -38 | -19 | 2500 1000 | | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ====== 22/23 | | | - 23/24 | 24/25 | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | | | | 天津 | -98 | -19 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 日照 | -158 | -39 | 500 | | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -58 | -19 | -500 | | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/77 | 02/23 | 03/25 | 04/75 05 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - After the bank assessment at the beginning of the month, the liquidity situation tends to ease. The central bank uses various short - and medium - term liquidity management tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient level of mid - year liquidity [5] - The macro news was calm yesterday, and the stock index continued to rise moderately. The market sentiment was boosted by the rumor of a phone call between Chinese and US leaders. Domestic factors have limited driving force for the stock index, and overseas variables dominate short - term fluctuations. The stock index has reached the upper limit of the shock range, and further upward movement requires incremental positive news and increased trading volume. It is recommended to wait and see in futures index operations and be cautious about chasing up [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Interest Rate and Bond Market - DRO01 closed at 1.41, down 0.10 bp; DR007 closed at 1.55, down 0.41 bp; GC001 closed at 1.40, down 9.00 bp; GC007 closed at 1.56, down 3.00 bp; SHBOR 3M closed at 1.65, unchanged; LPR 5 - year closed at 3.50, down 10.00 bp; 1 - year treasury bond closed at 1.44, down 1.75 bp; 5 - year treasury bond closed at 1.52, down 0.85 bp; 10 - year treasury bond closed at 1.68, up 0.40 bp; 10 - year US treasury bond closed at 4.37, down 9.00 bp [4] - The central bank conducted 126.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday at an operating rate of 1.40%. With 266 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 139.5 billion yuan. This week, 1.6026 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 291.1 billion yuan maturing on Friday [4][5] Stock Index Futures Market - The CSI 300 rose 0.23% to 3877.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.05% to 2692.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.54% to 5770, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.72% to 6167. The trading volume of the two markets was 1.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 137.4 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with TMT sectors leading the gains and some consumer and pharmaceutical sectors leading the losses [6] - IF volume was 69,770, down 0.1%; IF open interest was 231,414, up 0.9%; IH volume was 38,082, up 19.4%; IH open interest was 81,351, up 3.2%; IC volume was 64,999, up 11.9%; IC open interest was 211,733, up 2.6%; IM volume was 180,384, up 19.1%; IM open interest was 329,492, up 4.4% [6] - IF basis for the current - month contract was 16.04%, next - month contract 14.09%, current - quarter contract 0.02%, next - quarter contract 6.64%; IH basis for the current - month contract was 16.39%, next - month contract 15.49%, current - quarter contract 6.95%, next - quarter contract 3.86%; IC basis for the current - month contract was 19.55%, next - month contract 17.41%, current - quarter contract 14.28%, next - quarter contract 11.91%; IM basis for the current - month contract was 25.81%, next - month contract 21.78%, current - quarter contract 18.20%, next - quarter contract 15.30% [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The uncertainty and repetitiveness of tariff policies support precious metal prices. The Republican tax legislation draft and Trump's call to cancel the debt ceiling will increase the US deficit, weaken the US dollar's credit, and support precious metal prices. However, there is a possibility of tariff negotiation and easing, and the low probability of a Fed rate cut in June will limit the short - term upside of precious metals. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, and silver needs to watch the previous high resistance after a significant recent rally [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Amid the trade war, the US economy faces risks, the Fed may cut rates this year, and with intensifying great - power competition and the de - dollarization trend, central bank gold purchases continue, strengthening gold's monetary attribute. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Internal and External Gold and Silver Prices (15:00 prices)**: On June 5, 2025, compared with June 4, London gold spot rose 0.3%, London silver spot rose 0.2%, COMEX gold rose 0.3%, COMEX silver rose 0.2%, AU2508 rose 0.2%, AG2508 rose 0.1%, AU (T + D) rose 0.1%, and AG (T + D) rose 0.2% [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From June 4 to June 5, the change in gold TD - SHFE active spread was 18.2%, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 21.4%, gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 36.8%, silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 0.7%, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 0.0%, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 0.1%, AU2512 - 2508 was - 1.5%, and AG2512 - 2508 was - 2.3% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - **ETF and COMEX Positions**: From June 3 to June 4, gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 0.00%, silver ETF - SLV rose 0.94%. For COMEX gold non - commercial positions, long positions decreased 1.67%, short positions decreased 19.14%, and net long positions increased 6.22%. For COMEX silver non - commercial positions, long positions increased 3.31%, short positions decreased 2.98%, and net long positions increased 5.94% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: From June 4 to June 5, SHFE gold inventory rose 3.48%, SHFE silver inventory rose 1.85%. From June 3 to June 4, COMEX gold inventory rose 0.07%, and COMEX silver inventory rose 0.18% [3]. 3.4 Related Macro Data - **Exchange Rates, Indexes, and Yields**: From June 4 to June 5, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate remained unchanged at - 0.03%, the US dollar index fell 0.47%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.27%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.02%, VIX fell 0.45%, the S&P 500 rose 0.01%, and NYMEX crude oil fell 0.95% [4]. 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market News**: The Fed's Beige Book shows a slight decline in US economic activity, weakened labor demand, and stronger inflation expectations. Trump suspended the entry of citizens from 12 countries. The House Republican tax legislation draft will increase the deficit by $2.4 trillion by 2034, and Trump called to cancel the debt ceiling [4]. - **Market Performance**: On June 5, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.23% to 783.72 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures fell 0.01% to 8473 yuan/kilogram [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoint - Polyester downstream load remains at 91.8% despite the expected reduction, and recent promotions have helped with inventory clearance. PTA will experience inventory reduction in the future, and the actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. The change in the sales strategy of large PTA factories, especially the act of canceling warehouse receipts to sell spot, is effectively changing the market's view on PTA contango. It is difficult for downstream production cuts to form a unified force, and downstream resistance to upstream seems ineffective [2]. Group 3: Data Summary Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4865 to 4845, a decrease of 20 [2]. - MEG internal market price increased from 4417 to 4425, an increase of 8 [2]. - PTA closing price decreased from 4670 to 4644, a decrease of 26 [2]. - MEG closing price decreased from 4292 to 4283, a decrease of 9 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6595 to 6575, a decrease of 20 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber basis increased from 107 to 121, an increase of 14 [2]. - 7 - 9 spread decreased from 78 to 70, a decrease of 8 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price decreased from 5920 to 5900, a decrease of 20 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber price difference remained unchanged at 675 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5934 to 5870, a decrease of 64 [2]. - Hot - filled polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5934 to 5870, a decrease of 64 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 6034 to 5970, a decrease of 64 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 785 to 780, a decrease of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee decreased from 295 to 245, a decrease of 49.58 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4005 to 4025, an increase of 20 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price decreased from 16530 to 16500, a decrease of 30 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14365 to 14355, a decrease of 10 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1728 to 1715, a decrease of 12.96 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7130 [2]. - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 291 to 305, an increase of 14.42 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7250 [2]. Operating Rate and Sales Rate - Direct - spun staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, an increase of 0.02 [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales rate decreased from 68.00% to 62.00%, a decrease of 6.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3]. - Recycled cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3].

种类 利润估算 外购锂辉石精矿现金成本 60708 H # 利 -1347 王 外购锂辉石精矿利润 外购锂云母精矿现金成本 64355 外购锂云母精矿利润 -6488 玻利维亚法院暂停中俄锂矿合作项目。2025年 年 6 月 2 日，据报道玻利维亚乌尤尼盐沼（Salar de Uyuni）的锂矿开发计划遭遇重大挫折。 = IT 地科查卡（Coloha K）混合法院于上周作出裁决，暂停该国与中国、俄罗斯签署的两项大型锂矿开采协议。这两项协议签署于 2023 年至 2024 价值超 20 亿美元, 分别涉及中国 CBC 财团(成员包括电池制造商宁德时代 CATL) 和俄罗斯国家核能公司 Rosatom 子公司 Ura 旨在乌尤尼盐沼建设直接提锂（DLE）设施。乌尤尼盐沼是全球最大锂矿储量地区之一，与智利、阿根廷共同构成 "锂一用 H 短期偏弱为主. 1、供给端由于周内价格上涨，给到部分一体化工厂套保空间,碳酸锂周度产业有增加,材料需求较为平稳。2、 碳酸锂成本中性下移,双方形成负反馈,需要矿端出现减停产来打破,但目前暂未出现,是后续要重点观测的变量。 心理。 对原料采购需求个强。 员 免 告申的信息均源于公开可获 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The risk appetite in the capital market has slightly improved, but the industrial contradictions have little impact. The market may enter a stage of intensified divergence, and there may be a band convergence of the basis. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for futures - spot operations, and pay attention to the pressure range after basis repair [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of coke price cuts of 70 - 75 yuan is expected to be implemented soon. The market is mainly affected by macro uncertainties and industrial demand pressure. The short - term rebound is mainly due to short - covering, and the medium - term strategy is to short at high levels, with the short - term upper pressure around the coking coal warehouse receipt cost of 800 yuan [4]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price elasticity at low levels increases. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost decline [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The rebound is mainly due to short - covering, and the downward trend remains unchanged. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and the port inventory may shift from slight destocking to slight accumulation. The market needs to pay attention to the impact of steel mill profits on iron - water production and the stability of steel exports [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 5, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2951 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.34%); HC2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 closed at 665 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.15%); J2601 closed at 1358.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.44%); JM2601 closed at 773 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (1.18%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.14%); HC2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.19%); I2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.14%); J2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.56%); JM2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan (1.68%) [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts, such as RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, etc., also had corresponding changes. The spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts, like the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, etc., also showed different trends [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 5, the prices of various steel products in different regions, such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc., had different degrees of decline. The prices of hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the prices of coking coal and coke had mixed trends. For example, Shanghai rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port decreased, and the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port remained unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM main contracts also changed. For example, the HC main contract basis was 93 yuan/ton on June 5, down 30 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 131 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Pulp Price Data - On June 5, 2025, among futures prices, SP2601 was 5242 with a daily decrease of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 0.15%; SP2507 was 5280 with a daily decrease of 0.34% and a weekly decrease of 0.86%; SP2509 was 5228 with a daily decrease of 0.15% and a weekly increase of 0.27%. Among spot prices, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6150 with no daily change and no weekly change; the price of knitting needle pulp was 5320 with no daily change and no weekly change; the price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4120 with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.49%. The outer - disk quotations of Chilean Silver Star, Chilean Star, and Chilean Venus remained unchanged compared to the previous period, and the import costs also remained unchanged [1] Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.01%; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 119.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.44%. The pulp shipment volume to China in March 2025 was 1813 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20.70%. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from late April to late May 2025 [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 29, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.1 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous period. The delivery warehouse inventory, double - offset paper inventory, coated paper inventory, and inventory of other products also showed different degrees of change [1] - **Demand**: The production volume of major finished papers such as double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also showed certain fluctuations from late April to late May 2025. Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor [1] Pulp Valuation Data - On June 5, 2025, the basis of Russian needles was 40 with a quantile level of 0.788; the basis of Silver Star was 870 with a quantile level of 0.975. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104 with a quantile level of 0.78; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 467 with a quantile level of 0.206 [1] Supply and Demand Situation - **Supply**: Chile's Arauco company announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star remained unchanged, broadleaf pulp had no supply in June and limited supply in July, and the price of natural pulp Venus remained unchanged. In April 2025, the shipment volume of M20 coniferous pulp to China decreased year - on - year, while the shipment volume of broadleaf pulp to China increased year - on - year [1] - **Demand**: Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid - demand purchases. The production volume of white cardboard increased slightly, and the production volume of other paper types remained stable [1] Inventory Situation - As of May 29, 2025, the sample inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 216.1 tons, a slight increase compared to the previous period, showing a trend of slight inventory accumulation [1]

| | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/6 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/4 | 2025/6/5 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 468. 2 1267.5 | 463. 7 1274. 2 | -4. 50 6. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,盘中原油行情偏弱,PTA行情小跌 。PTA去库存利好再度发酵,现货货少推涨现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3725 | 1. 3781 | 0. 0056 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 825 | 820 | -5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 263 | 257 | -6 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4670 | 4644 | -26.0 | | | | PTA现货价格 | 48 ...

Report Summary 1. Index Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to close at 3376.2 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.11%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.1%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.45%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.48%. A-share trading volume reached 1.18 trillion yuan, up from 1.16 trillion yuan the previous day [7] - The closing prices, changes, trading volumes, and turnovers of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are as follows: Shanghai 50 closed at 2690.8243 with a 0.13% change, trading volume of 27.60 billion and turnover of 511.09 billion yuan; CSI 300 closed at 3868.7429 with a 0.43% change, trading volume of 116.80 billion and turnover of 2117.36 billion yuan; CSI 1000 closed at 6123.172 with a 0.88% change, trading volume of 186.96 billion and turnover of 2320.40 billion yuan [4] 2. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - The trading volume and open interest data of put and call options for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are presented, including put/call ratios (PCR) for both trading volume and open interest [4] 3. Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility, as well as volatility smile curves, are analyzed for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices [7]