铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年09月07日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 2 铝：继续磨盘，关注去库拐点 ◆ 本周沪铝走势维持了横盘格局，波动率仍处在历史低位，我们预计仍有周度级别磨盘，短期方向突破仍有难度，但未来 趋势方向我们维持向上判断，价格重心蓄势待涨。9月铝市已进入"传统消费旺季"，据SMM调研信息显示，本周国内铝 下游加工龙头企业整体开工率环比上升1个百分点至61.7%，其中铝板带龙头企业开工率受益于汽车、3C领域订单放量及 外贸回暖，高位铝价下企业备库意愿增强，成为产业链复苏领头羊；包装箔、装饰箔接棒空调箔成为新驱动力，双节备 货周期下行业蓄势待发；铝线缆行业开工率亦提升，电网订单集中交付推动江苏、河南头部企业率先反弹；建筑型材仍 受地产拖累但中东、非洲出口订单形成支撑，工业材中光伏组件抢装潮延续，汽车电池托盘订单初现增量信号。 ◆ 当前周频跟踪的微观指标来看，本周SMM华东现货贴水转平水，华南现货贴水 ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-09-08 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 9 月 8 日 10:30，中国海关总署将公布今年 8 月进出口数据。 9 月 10 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布 8 月 CPI 和 PPI。 中国 8 月进出口数据 9 月 10 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 8 月金融统计数据报告、8 月社会融资规模增量统计数据报告、 8 月社会融资规模存量统计数据报告。 点评：9 月 8 日 10:30，中国海关总署将公布今年 8 月进出口数据。按照美元计价，预期 8 月出口同比 增长 5%，前值出口同比增长 7.2%；预期 8 月进口同比增长 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The far - worse - than - expected US August non - farm payroll data makes a September interest rate cut almost certain, but the subsequent interest rate cut debate is more complex. The shift from full - time to part - time jobs indicates economic weakness [8][22]. - For the overall market, although the regulatory authorities have taken actions to cool down, the core drivers of the upward trend have not changed substantially, so the market is unlikely to have a trend - like callback. It is expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend later [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 US Economy and Interest Rate Expectations - US August non - farm employment increased by 22,000, far lower than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.3%, a nearly four - year high. The June employment data was revised down to negative growth, the first since 2020. The market expects a September interest rate cut, and there are debates about the magnitude and subsequent cuts [7][8][22]. 3.2 Sector - specific Analysis 3.2.1 Index Futures - The upward logic is gradually shifting to earnings. It is recommended to pay attention with a high attention index [9]. 3.2.2 Glass - Short - term rebound is difficult to continue, and it is more likely to have a weak and volatile market. The core pressure comes from the weak real estate background and the high premium of the futures main contract over the spot. It is a volatile market in the medium - term, and caution is needed at low levels [12]. 3.2.3 Natural Rubber - With macro and fundamental support, the market's bullish sentiment is rising. Overseas raw material prices are high, domestic inventory is slightly decreasing, and the price is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to arrival and inventory reduction [14]. 3.2.4 Copper - There is no trend - like opportunity, and the price will maintain a volatile trend. The supply of raw materials is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper is expected to be under pressure. The trading strategy is to buy at low prices [15][27]. 3.2.5 Other Commodities - Each commodity has different trends. For example, gold shows an upward trend due to the non - farm data; zinc, tin, etc. are in a range - bound state; aluminum needs to pay attention to the de - stocking inflection point; etc. Specific trends can be found in the corresponding commodity analysis parts [18][21][27].

Report Date - The report is dated September 8, 2025 [4][11] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate as the market weighs current conditions against future expectations [2][5] - Lithium carbonate is likely to see both supply and demand increase, with prices trending weakly and fluctuating [2][11] - For industrial silicon, market sentiment changes should be monitored [2][14] - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [2][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,310 yuan, down 390 yuan from T - 5; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 yuan, up 35 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume of the SHFE nickel main contract was 84,018 lots, a significant decrease compared to previous periods, while the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 153,413 lots, showing an increase [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may halt nickel exports to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production phase; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target of Indonesian nickel miners is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in an Indonesian industrial park have suspended production due to losses; a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to production reduction targets [5][6][7][8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 73,880 yuan, up 880 yuan from T - 1; the 2511 contract closed at 74,260 yuan, up 840 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the 2511 contract was 802,006 lots, showing a significant increase. The spot - 2509 basis was 870 yuan, down 1,130 yuan from T - 1 [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Kodal Minerals received approval to export 12.5 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate from a Mali project [12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a weakly bearish outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,820 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1; the PS2511 contract closed at 56,735 yuan/ton, up 4,540 yuan from T - 1. The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 53.7 million tons, with a decrease compared to previous periods; the polysilicon factory inventory was 21.1 million tons, also showing a decline [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: Anhui Province issued a plan to support mergers and acquisitions in key industries, promote energy - saving and carbon - reduction, and guide key industries to carry out low - carbon transformation [15][17] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping index (European routes) is "Oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European routes) is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend. The freight rates are under downward pressure, and the supply - side capacity has certain fluctuations. Different contracts have different price trends and outlooks [1][11][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Conditions - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1,315.3 with a 0.54% increase, EC2512 at 1,715.6 with a 2.33% increase, and EC2602 at 1,542.0 with a 1.78% increase. The spread between EC2510 - EC2512 is - 400.3, and between EC2512 - EC2604 is 455.8 [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For EC2510, the trading volume is 23,721, open interest is 48,765 with a decrease of 1,198; for EC2512, the trading volume is 9,362, open interest is 16,225 with a decrease of 222; for EC2602, the trading volume is 1,401, open interest is 5,640 with a decrease of 13 [1] 2. Freight Rate Index - **SCFIS Index**: The European route of SCFIS is at 1,773.60 points, with a weekly decline of 10.9%; the US - West route is at 1,013.90 points, with a weekly decline of 2.6% [1] - **SCFI Index**: The European route of SCFI is at $1,315/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 11.2%; the US - West route is at $2,189/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 13.8% [1] 3. Spot Freight Rates - **Expected Freight Rate Trend**: It is expected that the freight rate center in late September will drop to the same level as that in mid - early May. In week 38, it may be around $1,850/FEU, and in week 39, it may be in the range of $1,700 - $1,750/FEU. There is still pressure on freight rates from week 42 - 43 after the National Day holiday [11] - **Freight Rates of Different Alliances**: Gemini Alliance's FAK center in the third week of September is around $1,800/FEU; OA Alliance's is around $1,900/FEU; PA Alliance's is around $1,780/FEU; MSC's is $2,040/FEU from September 6th and will drop to $1,840/FEU in the second half of September [11] 4. Supply - Side Capacity - **September Capacity**: There are 6 blank sailings in September, with no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reaches 296,000 TEU/week. The decline in September capacity compared to August is about 6%, significantly lower than the 14% decline in the same period in 2024 [12] - **October Capacity**: There are 2 pending voyages, 12 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 277,000 TEU/week, a 6.3% decline month - on - month and a 5% increase year - on - year [12] - **November Capacity**: There are 6 pending voyages, 2 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 296,000 TEU/week, a 7.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year [12] 5. Contract Outlook - **2510 Contract**: The overall cabin - reduction efforts of shipping companies in September are small, leading to great pressure on freight rate decline. The neutral - level suspension of sailings in October helps slow down the decline but is not enough to reverse the trend. The expected freight rate center at the end of September corresponds to the SCFIS index of 1,150 - 1,200 points, and there may be a decline of 50 - 150 points in October. Considering the impact of voyage delays, the delivery settlement price of the 2510 contract is more likely to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,200 points [13] - **2512 Contract**: Due to factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure, the contract should not be over - estimated. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 1,550 - 1,800 points [13] - **2602 Contract**: In years when the Spring Festival is late, the 12 - contract of the previous year still has a certain premium over the 10 - contract, but the 02 - contract may not be at a discount to the 12 - contract [13] 6. Investment Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: In the short - term (this week), consider shorting the 2510 contract with a light position, with a resistance level of 1,350 - 1,400 points [14] - **Medium - to - Long - term Strategy**: Consider entering into positive spreads for 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 in the medium - to - long - term [15]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The market anti - involution information of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has heated up again, showing a strong and volatile trend [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon 2511, ferrosilicon 2601, silicomanganese 2511, and silicomanganese 2601 are 5598, 5554, 5830, and 5844 respectively, with price changes of 102, 92, 112, and 114 compared to the previous trading day. Their trading volumes are 212,383, 84,230, 82,234, and 253,536, and the open interests are 240,781, 108,371, 118,249, and 324,869 respectively [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5680 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block is 39.5 yuan/ton degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu is 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) is - 348 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton; the basis of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) is - 164 yuan/ton, down 112 yuan/ton. The near - far month price difference of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 is 44 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the near - far month price difference of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 is - 14 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 is 232 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the cross - variety price difference of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 is 290 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On September 5th, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in Shaanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia is 5150 - 5300 yuan/ton; the price range of 75 ferrosilicon is 5800 - 5950 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton, and the FOB price of 75 ferrosilicon is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton. The northern offer of 6517 silicomanganese is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern offer is 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton [2]. - **Steel Mill Procurement Information**: Henan Minyuan Iron and Steel set the procurement price of ferrosilicon at 5520 yuan/ton in cash, with a quantity of 1000 tons. Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the procurement price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5750 yuan/ton in electronic vouchers, with a quantity of 600 tons. Zhongtian Iron and Steel in Changzhou set the price of silicomanganese at 5790 yuan/ton in bank acceptance, with a procurement volume of 1700 tons. A steel mill in Henan set the standard price of silicomanganese at 5730 yuan/ton in cash, with an actual procurement volume of 4000 tons. An East China steel mill set the standard price of silicomanganese at 5800 yuan/ton for 2000 tons, 5900 yuan/ton for 1000 tons, and 5760 yuan/ton for 400 tons, all in acceptance - inclusive delivered - to - factory prices [2][3]. - **Manganese Ore News**: South32 announced the offer price of South African semi - carbonate lump (typical value Mn36.9%) in October 2025 at 4.1 dollars/ton degree, up 0.05 dollars/ton degree month - on - month; the offer price of Australian lump (typical value Mn42%) is 4.5 dollars/ton degree, up 0.05 dollars/ton degree month - on - month [5]. - **Manganese Ore Inventory**: As of this Friday, the inventory of Tianjin Port is 366.31 million tons, up 3.61 million tons month - on - month; the inventory of Qinzhou Port is 70.17 million tons, down 3.51 million tons month - on - month; the inventory of Caofeidian Port is 0 million tons; the inventory of Fangchenggang is 4 million tons, unchanged month - on - month. As of September 5th, the total manganese ore inventory is 440.48 million tons, up 0.1 million tons month - on - month [5]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 1, and the trend intensity of silicomanganese is 1, indicating a moderately strong trend [4].

镍：窄幅震荡运行 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 8 日 不锈钢：现实与预期博弈，钢价或震荡运行 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,310 | 460 | -390 | 1,700 | 240 | -260 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,850 | -5 | 35 | 100 | -85 | 160 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 84,018 | -20,580 | -52,794 | -27,236 | -3,822 | -18,357 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 153,413 | 54,404 | 44,040 | 39,747 | 71,394 | 84,501 | | | | 1#进口镍 | 121,050 | ...

2025 年 9 月 8 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪扰动，偏强震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 | 3,054 | 24 | 0.79 | | 期 货 | HC2510 | 3,366 | 46 | 1.39 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 230,792 | 673,564 | -51,071 | | | HC2510 | 136,672 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 481,052 前日价格 （元/吨） | -29,686 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3240 | 3230 | 10 | | | 杭州 螺纹钢 | 3270 | 3260 ...

资料来源：Bloomberg，同花顺 iFinD，SMM，SHMET，国泰君安期货研究 【新闻】 美国 8 月非农新增就业大幅低于预期，6 月数据下修至负，为 2020 年以来首次萎缩，失业率 4.3% 创近 四年新高。市场预期 9 月降息几乎确定，美债收益率全线下挫。（华尔街见闻） 铅趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 2025 年 09 月 08 日 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16900 | 0.24% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1988 | -0.08% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 33992 | 8082 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5610 | 1015 | ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 08 日 铝：关注去库拐点 氧化铝：下方空间恐仍在 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20695 | 90 | -45 | 70 | 485 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20665 | ー | l | l | ー | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2603 | 13 | -17 | -6 | 146 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 101535 | -49681 | -19707 | -23633 | -18350 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 197393 | -9224 | -39215 | -63970 | -5980 | | | 电解铝 | LME ...