商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 昨日收盘价 994.06 | 日涨幅 2.45% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 945.44 | 夜盘涨幅 -4.64% | | | 黄金T+D | 986.89 | 1.35% | 944.47 | -4.55% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4138.50 | -5.39% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 11805 | 0.51% | 11285.00 | -4.86% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 11759 | -0.16% | 11261 | -4.86% | | | Comex白银2512 | 48.160 | -6.30% | - | - ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日 集运指数（欧线）：现实好于预期，相对抗跌 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | EC2510 | 1,135.0 | 2.94% | 2,368 | 6,372 | -2,024 | 0.37 | | 0.14 | | | EC2512 | 1,769.3 | 5.10% | 42,939 | 28,434 | 2,333 | 1.51 | | 0.93 | | | EC2602 | 1,568.0 | 2.87% | 5,402 | 10,233 | 130 | 0.53 | | 0.69 | | | EC2512 - EC260 ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 2025年10月22日 | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：仓单去化延续，短期价格偏坚挺 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单继续去化 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,180 | 470 | 350 | 280 | -800 | 80 ...

2025年10月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 10 月 22 日 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 769.5 | 2.5 | 0. 33% | | | I 2601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | ...

宏 观 及 期 指 点 评 2025 年 10 月 21 日 股指期货 IF2512 和 IH2512 偏强震荡 IC2512 和 IM2512 震 荡偏强 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成 具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作 出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【行情前瞻要点】 10 月 21 日，股指期货主力合约 IF2512、IH2512、IC2512 和 IM2512 小幅高开；开盘后，IF2512 和 IH2512 震荡上行；IC2509 和 IM2509 偏强震荡上行。 预计日内 IF2512 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 4600 和 4632 点，4632 点短线阻力偏强，支撑 位 4515 和 4498 点，4498 点支撑较强。 预计日内 IH2 ...

图表1:欧盟排放配额(EUA)最新拍卖行情信息 | CBAM证书价格 | EUA拍卖价格 (欧元/吨) | (欧元/吨) | EUA拍卖量 (万吨) | 投标覆盖比 | 拍卖收入 (万欧元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-10-17 | 77.99 | 78. 51 | 169. 10 | 1.98 | 13188 | | 2025-10-16 | 77.82 | 78. 51 | 326. 80 | 1.60 | 25432 | | 图表2: EUA拍卖价格走势-李节性图 | | | 图表3: EUA拍卖投标覆盖比-季节性图 | | | | -2021 -- 2023 -- 2023 -- 2024 -- 2025 比值 -- 2025 比值 - 100 欧元/吨 | | | ——2021 ——2023 ——2023 ——2024 | | -2025 | | 80 | | | | | | | 60 and the same of the many of the may be and | | | . | | | 40 20 07-01 10-01 ...

若安期货研 融期货 2025年10月21日 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | 沪深300 | 4538. 22 | 1 0. 53 | | 5058 | | | | | | IF2511 | 4519. 8 | ↑ 0. 50 | -18.42 | 342 | 25145 | ↓ 10415 | 40679 | + 3188 | | IF2512 | 4506. 8 | ↑ 0. 50 | -31.42 | 969. 1 | 71457 | 1 28525 | 156399 | + 6835 | | IF2603 | 4482 | ↑ 0. 43 | -56. 22 | 164. 2 | 12171 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report anticipates the trend of various futures on October 21, 2025. Index futures are expected to oscillate strongly; gold and silver futures will oscillate with an upward bias; coking coal futures will oscillate weakly; polysilicon, glass, and soda ash futures will oscillate weakly [1][2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - On October 9, 2025, the total funds in China's futures market exceeded 2 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [11]. - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene on the Dalian Commodity Exchange will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, and will be included in the scope of tradable varieties for qualified overseas investors [11]. Macro News and Trading Tips - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China began in Beijing on the morning of October 20, 2025 [7]. - China and the United States are about to return to the negotiation table. The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues to be raised with China [7]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% [7]. - In September 2025, housing prices in various cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow, and the number of cities with year - on - year increases in new housing prices increased [8]. - China's LPR in October 2025 remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month, with the 1 - year and 5 - year varieties reported at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - As of October 17, 2025, the new policy - based financial instruments of the China Development Bank had invested 189.35 billion yuan, expected to drive a total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan; the Export - Import Bank of China had invested 83% of its funds in major economic provinces; the Agricultural Development Bank of China had completed 100.111 billion yuan of the 150 - billion - yuan fund investment, expected to drive a total project investment of over 1.26 trillion yuan [8]. - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to jointly invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next 6 months [9]. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of index futures such as IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, and IM2512 all opened slightly higher, then rose, encountered resistance, and fell back, showing a slightly strong oscillation. It is expected that on October 21, they will continue to oscillate strongly. For the whole of October 2025, they are expected to oscillate weakly in a wide range [13][14][15][18]. Treasury Bond Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures opened lower and oscillated downward. It is expected that on October 21, they will oscillate in a wide range [32][36]. Precious Metal Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of gold and silver futures opened lower and oscillated downward during the day, but showed a strong upward oscillation during the night session. It is expected that in October 2025, they will oscillate with an upward bias and reach new highs; on October 21, they will continue to oscillate with an upward bias [40][48]. Base Metal Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, and other base metal futures showed different trends. It is expected that in October 2025, copper and aluminum will oscillate strongly in a wide range, nickel will oscillate in a wide range, and alumina will oscillate weakly in a wide range. On October 21, copper and nickel will oscillate strongly, aluminum will oscillate and consolidate, and alumina will oscillate weakly [52][57][66][71]. Energy and Chemical Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of polysilicon, glass, soda ash, and other energy and chemical futures showed different trends. It is expected that in October 2025, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash will oscillate weakly in a wide range, and crude oil will oscillate weakly. On October 21, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash will oscillate weakly, and crude oil will oscillate strongly [71][93][98][103]. Agricultural Product Futures - On October 20, 2025, the main contracts of PTA, methanol, and soybean meal futures showed different trends. It is expected that on October 21, PTA and soybean meal will oscillate strongly, and methanol will oscillate weakly [107][110][112].

| | 项 目 | | 价 格 | 较前一交易日 | 单 位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 货 | 硅铁:FeSi75-B:汇总价格:内蒙 | | 5180 | - | 元/吨 | | | 硅锰:FeMn65Si17:内蒙 | | 5700 | +20.0 | 元/吨 | | 现 | 锰矿:Mn44块 | | 39.8 | - | 元/吨度 | | | 兰炭:小料:神木 | | 710 | - | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差 | 硅铁 （现货-11期货） | -278 | - | 元/吨 | | | | 锰硅 （现货-01期货） | -38 | + 4 | 元/吨 | | 价 差 | 近远月价差 | 硅铁2511-2601 | 2 2 | - 6 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰硅2511-2601 | - 6 | - 4 | 元/吨 | | | 跨品种价差 | 锰硅2511-硅铁2511 | 274 | 1 6 | 元/吨 | | | | 锰硅2601-硅铁2601 | 302 | 1 4 | 元/吨 | | | 期现价差、近远月价差和跨品种价差均取期货 ...

2025 年 10 月 21 日 锌：小幅反弹 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 21850 | 0.16% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 2939.5 | -0.98% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 97686 | 8999 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 11101 | 3731 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 125172 | 47950 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 224213 | -58 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | -40 | 5 | LME CASH-3M 升 | 130 | -10 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | ...