車 : 品型突破 新起点新高度 童金 上周贵金属周报我们写道,当美国保守主义的 路径是通过掠夺其他国家资产,且以更不加掩饰的方 式呈现,则使得全球对抗、割裂的格局更加显性化, 与贯穿2025年全年的关税贸易战对黄金影响的程度, 将更胜一层楼。我们判断:黄金或已经站在新的起涨 点上,建议增配黄金,重视货币属性强化带来新的高 度。 场外衍生品部联系方式:021-33037568 内容来源:国泰君安期货研究所、风险管理子公司 -投资有风险 入市须谨慎- 免责声明:在任何情况下,本文中的信息或所表述的意见均不构成对任何人的投资建议。 在任何情况下,本公司、本公司员工或者关联机构不承诺投资者一定获利,不与投资者 分享投资收益,也不对任何人因使用本文中的任何内容所引致的任何损失负任何责任。 投资者务必注意,其据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司、本公司员工或者关联机构无关。 地缘政治方面,丹麦本土和格陵兰岛多地分别 举行游行示威,对此特朗普发文称,将对挪威、瑞典、 法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰加征10%的关税, 数月后还将增至25%。波兰央行周二表示,该行已 批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划,这将使该国的 黄 金 储 备 增 ...

期 货 行 情 前 瞻 研 究 2026 年 1 月 21 日 股指期货将偏弱震荡 黄金、白银期货价格再创新高 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品 | 主力合 | 趋势 | | 阻力位 | | | | | 支撑位 | | | | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 约 | | | | | ...

車 : 品型突破 新起点新高度 童金 上周贵金属周报我们写道,当美国保守主义的 路径是通过掠夺其他国家资产,且以更不加掩饰的方 式呈现,则使得全球对抗、割裂的格局更加显性化, 与贯穿2025年全年的关税贸易战对黄金影响的程度, 将更胜一层楼。我们判断:黄金或已经站在新的起涨 点上,建议增配黄金,重视货币属性强化带来新的高 度。 地缘政治方面,丹麦本土和格陵兰岛多地分别 举行游行示威,对此特朗普发文称,将对挪威、瑞典、 法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰加征10%的关税, 数月后还将增至25%。波兰央行周二表示,该行已 批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划,这将使该国的 黄 金 储 备 增 加 到 700 吨。 丹 麦 养 老 基 金 Akademiker Pension将退出美国国债投资。受高市 早苗激进减税目缺乏资金来源影响,日本国债遭遇 "特拉斯式"抛售。以上皆是全球避险情绪大潮下黄 金的价值再度凸显的证明。 我们再次明确观点:从近期数据上可以观察, 黄金的购买力正在回归,TD递延费方向转为空付多, 国内和海外ETF持仓同步大增,我们认为策略上关注 黄金单边入场做多、买call策略。波动率或有抬升。 另外,基于白 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Core Viewpoints - Overseas raw material prices are continuously falling, weakening the bottom support for natural rubber (NR). The seasonal inventory accumulation trend of NR remains unchanged, and the downstream production and sales pressure persists [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,620 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night closing price was 15,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The trading volume was 251,199 lots, an increase of 34,844 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 178,976 lots, a decrease of 7,467 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 109,870 tons, a decrease of 20 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 37,207 lots, a decrease of 2,487 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was -220 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was -870 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan; the monthly spread of RU05 - RU09 was 45 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,140 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars; the STR20 was 1,900 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SMR20 was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars; the SIR20 was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber also declined. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber, also decreased [1] Industry News - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of NR in bonded and general trade in the Qingdao area was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons, with a growth rate of 2.94%. The bonded area inventory was 99,500 tons, with a growth rate of 6.42%; the general trade inventory was 485,400 tons, with a growth rate of 2.26%. The inbound and outbound rates of sample bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses in Qingdao increased to varying degrees [2][3] - Some semi - steel tire enterprises with a relatively large proportion of European exports have relatively sufficient foreign trade orders recently, and their production is maintained at a relatively high level. However, the overall inventory reserve of enterprises has further increased, the domestic sales are slow, and the overall sales pressure of enterprises remains high [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 21 日 铜：市场避险，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,230 | 0.05% | 99930 | -1.28% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,797 | -1.47% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 335,565 | -128,098 | 634,562 | 7,401 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 27,891 | 7,244 | 326,000 | -589 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 148,193 | -4,462 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 156,300 | 8,875 | 30.58% | -2.35% ...

2026 年 1 月 21 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） 4338 | +16（+0.37%） | 4295 | -32 （-0.74%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） 2736 | +8（+0.29%） | 2728 | +2 （+0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） 1053 | -3.25（-0.31%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） 291.5 | +1.6（+0.55%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3085～3130， 较昨-20至持平； | 现货M2605+390/+420， | 持平或+10； 2月 | | | M2605+370/+400， | 持平； | ...

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PX: Polyester leading stocks' rise drives PX and PTA prices up. Before the Spring Festival, the downside price space is limited, but there is pressure after the festival. Future PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. Consider long - PX short - PTA and long - MX short - PX hedges [8]. - PTA: Polyester leading stocks' rise leads to PTA price rebound. Focus on reducing processing fees. Future supply and demand are both weak, and it turns into a stock - building pattern [9]. - MEG: It is in a range - bound market with limited downside space. Pay attention to basis and 5 - 9 calendar spreads. Supply pressure is still large, but considering basis, calendar spreads, and potential spring maintenance, the downside is restricted [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - **Futures Prices**: PX主力昨日收盘价7232元，涨126元，涨幅1.77%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5144元，涨114元，涨幅2.27%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3674元，跌81元，跌幅2.16%；PF主力昨日收盘价6494元，涨96元，涨幅1.50%；SC主力昨日收盘价437元，跌0.4元，跌幅0.09% [2]. - **Spot Prices**: PX CFR中国昨日价格888美元/吨，较前日涨9美元；PTA华东昨日价格5010元/吨，较前日涨38元；MEG现货昨日价格3595元/吨，较前日跌43元；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格549美元/吨，较前日涨0.5美元；Dated布伦特昨日价格68美元/桶，较前日涨0.69美元 [2]. - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格330.5美元/吨，较前日涨4.42美元；PTA加工费昨日价格309.31元/吨，较前日跌70.31元；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64元/吨，较前日跌21.37元；瓶片加工费昨日价格149.42元/吨，较前日涨47.24元；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34美元/吨，与前日持平 [2]. Fundamental Information - **PX**: On January 20, PX prices rose. The estimated price of MOPJ in February is 546 dollars/ton CFR. Three Asian spot transactions in March were all at 887. The estimated PX price on January 20 was 888 dollars/ton, up 9 dollars from January 19. The domestic PX plant operating rate increased to 89.6% (+1.3%), and only Sinochem Quanzhou is under maintenance. Some overseas PX plants plan to restart or are under maintenance, and the overseas import in December is expected to be over 950,000 tons [3][8]. - **PTA**: The PTA plant operating rate is maintained at about 76.9%. The Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton PTA plant is under maintenance. Polyester production reduction plans increase, and the operating rate drops rapidly this week [8][9]. - **MEG**: From January 19 to January 25, the planned arrival quantity at major ports is about 205,000 tons. The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is 74.4%, and the coal - based operating rate is 80.2% (+1.6%). Some plants adjust their loads, and some are under maintenance. Polyester filament manufacturers increase maintenance efforts, and the polyester load in February is expected to drop to 82 - 83% [6][10]. - **Polyester**: A 400,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing and a 500,000 - ton polyester plant in Ningbo are under planned maintenance and will restart in early March. A 50,000 - ton polyester plant in Shaoxing restarted on January 20. On January 20, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers improved, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 102%. The sales - to - production ratio of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filaments was weak, with an estimated average of 40 - 50% [6][7]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 1 - PTA trend intensity: 1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. However, it provides trend intensities for various commodities, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment. For example, positive trend intensities suggest a more bullish outlook, while negative ones indicate a bearish view [14][17][20] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple energy - chemical commodities, including their price trends, supply - demand situations, and investment suggestions. For instance, some commodities like PX and PTA are affected by stock market movements, while others such as methanol are expected to oscillate based on market sentiment and inventory patterns [11][12][41] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Driven by the rise of polyester leading stocks, prices increased. However, the industry may face pressure after the Spring Festival. Future supply is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to consider hedging strategies [11] - PTA: Also affected by stock market trends, future supply - demand is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to reducing processing fees [12] - MEG: Ranges in an oscillating market with limited downward space. Focus on basis and 5 - 9 positive spreads, considering factors like port inventory and coal - based load changes [13] Rubber - It is in a weakly oscillating state. Factors such as inventory increases and weakening bottom support of natural rubber contribute to this trend [14][16] Synthetic Rubber - It operates weakly in the short term. Although cost support limits the downward space, downstream resistance to high prices affects the market [17][19] LLDPE - Standard product production continues to rise, and spot trading has weakened. Supply - demand pressure may come from high - capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [20][21] PP - Production remains at a low level, and profit repair is limited. Cost - end pressure and weak demand are the main issues, and attention should be paid to PDH device changes [23][24] Caustic Soda - It is under pressure. High production, high inventory, and weak demand lead to continuous price decline, especially before the Spring Festival [25][27] Pulp - It oscillates weakly. Weak downstream demand and high inventory are the main factors affecting the market [29][32] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. Supply pressure is not significant, but downstream demand is relatively weak [34][35] Methanol - It is expected to oscillate. Market sentiment and inventory patterns influence its price, with limited upward and downward space [37][41] Urea - It oscillates and consolidates, with a narrowing downward space. Agricultural demand provides support, but short - term price may correct [42][44] Styrene - It oscillates strongly. Export and downstream restocking drive the market, but attention should be paid to the situation of pure benzene [45][46] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. High production and stable downstream procurement result in a stable price [48][50] PVC - It oscillates weakly. High production, high inventory, and weak demand are the main characteristics, and the market may face pressure in the short term [53][54] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil shows a fluctuating upward trend with a strong night - session rebound. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the upward trend, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the spot market has slightly shrunk [56] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a temporary oscillating market. Factors such as spot price decline, geopolitical uncertainties, and changes in supply - demand due to policy adjustments affect the market [58][72] Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - Both are in a short - term oscillating market. Short - fiber processing fees are at a low level, and the trading atmosphere of bottle - chip is fair [73][74] Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to close short positions. The market price is stable, and production and sales are in a normal state [76] Pure Benzene - It oscillates strongly. Port inventory has decreased, and price trends are affected by supply - demand and market sentiment [81][82]

2026 年 1 月 21 日 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 锰硅：需求端预期收紧，宽幅震荡 | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 较前一交易日 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 硅铁2603 | 5552 | 4 | 148,515 | 245,555 | | 期货 | 硅铁2605 | 5528 | -8 | 52,644 | 82,583 | | | 锰硅2603 | 5760 | -48 | 140,554 | 215,166 | | | 锰硅2605 | 5798 | -50 | 183,171 | 307, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Platinum may start a catch - up rally, and palladium may move upward in a volatile manner [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 619.35 with a 0.69% increase; the gold exchange platinum was at 612.53, up 1.22%; the New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2480.00, up 4.13%; the London spot platinum (previous day) was 2451.40, up 3.28%. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 490.00, up 2.52%; the RMB spot palladium was 439.00, up 0.69%; the New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1908.50, up 1.41%; the London spot palladium (previous day) was 1876.00, up 2.10% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Guangdong platinum (kg) was 22,573, an increase of 7,291 from the previous day, with an open interest of 37,684, a decrease of 487. The NYMEX platinum (kg) trading volume was 67,546, an increase of 23,139, and the open interest was 102,260, a decrease of 302. For Guangdong palladium (kg), the trading volume was 11,015, an increase of 4,734, and the open interest was 13,946, a decrease of 751. The NYMEX palladium (kg) trading volume was 25,620, an increase of 4,694, and the open interest was 55,635, a decrease of 837 [1] - **ETF Holdings**: The platinum ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 3,267,130, a decrease of 3,196. The palladium ETF holdings (ounces) (previous day) were 1,192,732, a decrease of 229 [1] - **Inventory**: The Guangdong platinum (kg) inventory was 1, with no change. The NYMEX platinum (ounces) (previous day) inventory was 664,393, an increase of 100. The Guangdong palladium (kg) inventory was 1, with no change. The NYMEX palladium (ounces) (previous day) inventory was 207,020, a decrease of 3,888 [1] - **Price Spreads**: The PT9995 to PT2606 spread was - 6.82, an increase of 3.11 from the previous day; the Guangdong platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 0.40, an increase of 1.30; the cost of buying Guangdong platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 7.61, an increase of 0.05; the spread between the Guangdong platinum main contract and London platinum (considering VAT) was - 0.82, a decrease of 14.99. The RMB spot palladium price to PD2606 spread was - 51.00, a decrease of 9.05; the Guangdong palladium 2606 contract to 2610 contract spread was 2.25, an increase of 7.90; the cost of buying Guangdong palladium 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.07, an increase of 0.13; the spread between the Guangdong palladium main contract and London palladium (considering VAT) was 15, an increase of 2.67 [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.55, a decrease of 0.82%; the US dollar to RMB (CNY spot) was 6.96, a decrease of 0.08%; the US dollar to offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.96, a decrease of 0.23%; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.88, a decrease of 0.11% [1] Macro and Industry News - Trump listed 365 achievements at the press conference on the first anniversary of his return to the White House, and considered "taking back" the Panama Canal, among other things [4] - The European Parliament froze the approval process of the US - EU trade agreement [4] - The Congolese (Kinshasa) government forces recaptured the eastern strategic town of Uvira [4] - The special envoys of the Russian and US presidents held talks in Davos for about 2 hours to discuss the peace plan [4] - The Polish central bank approved a plan to buy 150 tons of gold, increasing its gold reserves to 700 tons [4] - The US Supreme Court did not rule on the challenge to the legality of Trump's global tariffs, and the next ruling window is in a month [4] - The French Prime Minister used constitutional powers to send the revenue part of the 2026 budget to the lower house without a vote [4] - The ADP weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 8,000 jobs per week in the four weeks ending December 27, 2026 [4] Trend Strength - Platinum trend strength: 1; Palladium trend strength: 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [3]