Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectation is strong. Although the current high - inventory and weak - demand situation is difficult to reverse in the short term, the previous short - selling logic of caustic soda profit will be challenged later, and the far - month contracts may face cost increases and large - scale production cuts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On February 4, 2026, the 03 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 1969. The cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 600, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 1875, and the basis was - 94 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - On February 3, taking the Shandong region as a benchmark, the price center of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong declined by 10 - 20, while the price of 50% liquid caustic soda increased moderately by 10 in some areas [2]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The previous core logic of short - selling caustic soda profit was the strong performance of liquid chlorine and the decline in caustic soda cost, and manufacturers did not cut production as long as they were not at the cash - flow cost, resulting in a pattern of high production and high inventory. However, this logic will be challenged after April when the short - term strong pattern of liquid chlorine may not last [2]. - From the fundamental perspective, the high inventory of caustic soda makes the weak spot market difficult to reverse before the Spring Festival. In terms of demand, the oversupply of alumina has not changed in the short term, and the expectation of production cuts suppresses the stockpiling of caustic soda. Although there will be incremental demand from large - scale capacity expansion later, non - aluminum downstream industries face a seasonal decline in rigid demand and export pressure, so overall demand lacks support. On the supply side, winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and manufacturers are unlikely to significantly reduce production until they incur losses at the cash - flow cost [2]. - Recently, the futures market is insensitive to spot price cuts, and the price cut of liquid chlorine will lead to a pattern of cost increases and large - scale production cuts in the far - month contracts [2].

2026 年 2 月 4 日 燃料油：夜盘回弹，短期弱势暂缓 低硫燃料油：小幅跟涨，外盘现货高低硫价差 收缩至历史低位 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2 603 | 元/吨 | 2. 701 | 0. 82% | | 2. 690 | -4. 20% | | | | FU2604 | 元/吨 | 2. 702 | -4. 20% | | 2.689 | -3.52% | | | | LU2603 | 元/吨 | 3, 180 | 1.69% | | 3.169 | -2.67% | | | | LU2604 | 元/吨 | 3. 168 | -2. 67% | | 3, 161 | -2.50% | | | 期货 | | 12 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6865 | -0.19% | 627843 | 15259 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -185 | | -158 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -51 | | -41 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华 北 | 6680 | | 6720 | | | | 东 华 | 6800 | | 6880 | | | | 华 南 | 6900 | | 6940 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 期货研究 【现货消息】 期货震荡，上游前期库存转移，企业报价维持，代理开单及中游销售较弱 ...

2026 年 2 月 4 日 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市，关注中东地缘谈判及 船司复航进度 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,737.8 | 1.15% | 612 | 1,883 | -456 | 0.33 | 0.13 | | | EC2604 | 1,237.9 | 5.22% | 29,296 | 34,229 | 423 | 0.86 | 0.97 | | | EC2606 | 1,533.7 | 2.57% | 3,147 | 13,458 | 860 | 0.23 | 0.47 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/2/2 | | 单 位 | 周涨幅 | | | | SCFIS： 欧洲航线 | | 1,792.14 | | | 点 | -3.6% | | | 运 价 | 美西航线 SCFIS： | | 1,101.40 | ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-04 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-04 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 欧美股市集体收跌，纳指跌超 1%，大型科技股领跌。周二（2 月 3 日）欧美股市集体 收跌，标普 500 指数跌近 1%，纳指跌超 1%。科技股普跌，美光科技跌超 4%，微软、英伟 达跌近 3%。黄金股表现强劲，盎格鲁黄金涨超 6%，泛美白银涨逾 5%。沃尔玛涨近 3%， 市值突破 1 万亿美元。市场对美联储货币政策不确定性加剧，叠加地缘紧张局势，压制市场 风险偏好，科技股承压明显。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 化工 ★★★★ | | 化工：当前化工板块主要矛盾有两方面：（1）关注反内卷带来的全行业利润修复预期，在 1 | | 月整体化工板块涨幅中，反内卷预期带来的利润修复是主要矛盾，目前芳烃板块已经大幅盈 | | 利，而烯烃板块涨幅相对偏小，部分品种如聚丙烯仍处于亏损状态；（2）伊朗带来的地缘溢 | | 价，伊朗主要影响整体化工的成本支撑，以及相关品种甲醇、LPG、乙二醇、塑料和尿素。 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The nickel market is dominated by macro - sentiment at the margin, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions [2][5]. - In February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in the stainless - steel industry, and the nickel - iron expectation provides a bottom support [2][6]. - The market sentiment for lithium carbonate has warmed up, and the futures market shows a strong performance [2][12]. - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to market sentiment changes; for polysilicon, attention should be paid to the situation of the Beijing meeting [2][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 134,830, down 5,180 from T - 1, down 11,280 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,585, up 165 from T - 1, down 955 from T - 5, etc [6]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 663,364, down 144,776 from T - 1, up 139,968 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 377,013, down 247,788 from T - 1, down 102,979 from T - 5, etc [6]. Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" [6]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [7]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [9]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0; the trend intensity of stainless - steel is 0 [11]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2605 contract was 148,100, up 15,660 from T - 1, down 31,500 from T - 5, etc. The trading volume of the 2605 contract was 619,542, down 24,772 from T - 1, up 237,229 from T - 5, etc [12]. Macro and Industry News - Shanghai will deepen the construction of an international economic center, carry out technological transformation and upgrading in industries such as petrochemical and steel, and support the development of new energy vehicle and other industries [13][14]. - The "250,000 - ton/year electrolyte solvent project" of Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has been fully put into production [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0 [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2605 contract was 8,815 yuan/ton, up 20 from T - 1, down 45 from T - 5, etc. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 50,000 yuan/ton, up 2,950 from T - 1, down 1,900 from T - 5 [16]. Macro and Industry News - In December 2025, there were 6,233 newly - added on - record new - energy power generation projects (excluding household - use photovoltaics) in China, including 36 wind - power projects, 6,190 photovoltaic projects, and 7 biomass - power generation projects [15][16]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 1; the trend intensity of polysilicon is 1 [18].

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本预期松动，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：商品情绪共振，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：高位震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：高位震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：供需弱平衡，节前煤价以稳为主 | 9 | | 原木：小幅探涨 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 铁矿石：预期现实博弈，矿价窄幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期 货 | | | 昨日收盘价（元/吨） | 涨跌（元/吨） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | -5.5 | -0.70% | | | I2605 | | 777.5 | 昨日持 ...

2026年02月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪回暖，油脂高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴政策逐步落地，提振油脂情绪 | 2 | | 豆粕：生柴政策影响、美豆小涨，或反弹震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：1号文件出台，盘面情绪稳定 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260204 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，现货压力扩大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 04 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪回暖，油脂高位震荡 豆油：美国生柴政策逐步落地，提振油脂情绪 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,094 | 涨跌幅 0.89% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,152 | 涨跌幅 0.64% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that crude oil prices rebounded driven by macro and geopolitical sentiments, and suggests holding short positions lightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures rose $1.07, or 1.72%, to $63.21 per barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 04 rose $1.03, or 1.55%, to $67.33 per barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures rose $8.00, or 1.78%, to $457.80 per barrel [1]. European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra: Spread -$3.68, closed, spread change -$0.34, due to weakened price advantage of Middle - East crude oil and further deterioration of the arbitrage window [2]. - Arab Light: Spread -$5.01, closed, spread change -$0.38, due to continuous disadvantage in refining value and no improvement in price difference [2]. - Nemba: Spread -$5.69, closed, spread change -$0.19, due to high freight of West - African crude oil and no improvement in economy [2]. - Forties: Spread -$11.02, closed, spread change -$0.55, due to expanded price disadvantage of North - Sea crude oil and wider spread with WTI MEH [2]. - Arab Heavy: Spread -$3.41, closed, spread change +$0.75, with slight improvement possibly due to looser prices of Middle - East heavy oil [2]. - Vasconia: Spread -$0.95, closed, spread change +$0.19, with marginal improvement in arbitrage of Latin - American heavy oil but still in a loss state [2]. - Napo: Spread -$6.78, closed, spread change +$0.41, with possible narrowing of price decline but the arbitrage window still deeply in the red [2]. - Maya: Spread -$1.1, closed, spread change +$1.24, with significant improvement in refining value or price of Mexican heavy oil [2]. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties: Spread -$2.89, closed, spread change +$1.39, with narrowed price disadvantage of North - Sea crude oil and significant improvement in arbitrage but still negative [4]. - Arab Extra Light: Spread $1.29, open, spread change -$0.54, with narrowed arbitrage space of Middle - East light oil possibly due to rising freight [4]. - Saharan Blend: Spread $5.01, open, spread change +$2.19, with significantly expanded price advantage of Algerian crude oil and increased arbitrage space [4]. - Urals: Spread $24.54, open, spread change -$1.21, with a huge price discount of Russian oil and the arbitrage window remaining at an extremely high level [4]. Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH: Spread $1.27, open, spread change +$0.87, with enhanced economy due to decreased trans - Atlantic freight or expanded US - Europe spread [4]. - Eagle Ford: Spread $1.56, open, spread change +$0.78, with improved arbitrage conditions for shale oil, consistent with the trend of WTI MEH [4]. - Azeri Light: Spread $3.36, open, spread change -$0.26, with stable and slightly narrowed arbitrage space for Azerbaijani light oil [4]. - Bonny Light: Spread $3.71, open, spread change -$0.01, with a stable arbitrage window for West - African light oil and little change [4]. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend: Spread -$22.47, closed, spread change +$0.1, with a stable dominant position of Russian oil and continuously closed arbitrage space for other oil types [5]. - Azeri Light: Spread -$20.89, closed, spread change -$0.28, with a slight deterioration in spread and unchanged dominance of Russian oil [5]. - Eagle Ford: Spread -$25.21, closed, spread change +$1.26, with marginal improvement in arbitrage conditions for US crude oil but still uncompetitive [6]. - Ekofisk Ford: Spread -$27.15, closed, spread change +$0.22, with slight improvement in North - Sea crude oil but unchanged absolute disadvantage [6]. Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri: Spread -$2.97, closed, spread change +$2.13, with significant narrowing of the arbitrage window due to improved price or freight of Indonesian heavy oil [6]. - Basrah Heavy: Spread -$1.08, closed, spread change -$0.21, with a slight deterioration in arbitrage conditions for Iraqi heavy oil [6]. - Napo: Spread $3.62, open, spread change +$1.85, with significantly expanded arbitrage space for Ecuadorian heavy oil possibly due to deeper discounts [6]. - Maya: Spread $0.01, open, spread change +$0.99, with the arbitrage window reopening for Mexican heavy oil [6]. - Mars: Spread -$0.21, closed, spread change +$0.44, with improved arbitrage for US medium - quality oil but still not profitable [6]. Key Market News - The US government is preparing to issue a general license to allow companies to extract oil in Venezuela, which is part of a plan to relax sanctions and revive the country's stagnant energy industry [7]. - Iran has entered the highest state of defense readiness [7]. - OPEC+ expects an increase in oil demand in spring and summer [7]. - Brazil's oil production in December reached 4.015 million barrels per day, a 17.4% year - on - year increase, and the production in 2025 reached a record of 3.77 million barrels per day, a 12.3% increase from the previous year [7]. - The daily oil production of Kazakhstan's giant Tengiz oilfield increased from 118,000 barrels on January 31 to 183,000 barrels on February 1, and the production of the Tengri oilfield is expected to reach 430,000 barrels per day on February 4 [7]. - Iran cancelled a planned live - fire military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz after receiving a warning from the US [7]. - Negotiations between the US and Iran are continuing, and Iran is willing to take action. If diplomatic efforts fail, Trump still retains the option of taking military action [9]. - Trump does not want to repeat the "Midnight Hammer" operation against Iran [11]. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 30 was - 11.079 million barrels (previous value - 247,000 barrels, expected - 256,000 barrels); API Cushing crude oil inventory was - 1.394 million barrels (previous value - 92,000 barrels) [11]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [10].

2026 年 2 月 3 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏强宽幅震荡 白银、锡期 货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合约 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | 支撑位 | | | | | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震荡 | 4606 | 和 | 465 ...