王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 铝：区间震荡 氧化铝：过剩延续 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 2. 韩国：与美国关税谈判取得"实质性进展"。韩国最高政策负责人表示，韩国在与美国的关税谈判中， 许多问题上达成了广泛共识。双方在 3500 亿美元投资基金的结构上仍存在分歧，该基金是美国对韩国商品 关税上限为 15% 的协议的核心内容。（华尔街见闻） 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 20910 | O | 25 | 200 | 330 | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | 20920 | ー | ー | ー | l | | LME铝3M收盘价 | | 2767 | -14 | 10 | 153 | 172 | | 沪铝主力合约 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 豆粕：美豆偏强，或跟随反弹震荡 豆一：偏强震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4086 | +52 （+1.29%） | 4085 +30（+0.74%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2895 | +13（+0.45%） | 2901 +7（+0.24%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1032.75 | +11.75（+1.15%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284.8 | +3.8（+1.35%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 2960～2970， M2601+50/+60/+80/+90， | 较昨-10或持平； 持平或-10； | 现货基差M260 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Cotton continues its rebound momentum [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,465 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97% and a night - session closing price of 13,480 yuan/ton with a 0.11% increase; CY2601 closed at 19,605 yuan/ton with a 0.69% daily increase and a night - session closing price of 19,665 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase; ICE Cotton 12 was at 64.19 cents/pound with a - 0.16% change. Trading volume and open interest of CF2601 increased, while CY2601's trading volume decreased and open interest increased [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Zhengzhou cotton's warehouse receipts decreased by 55 to 2,598, and effective forecasts increased by 47 to 230; cotton yarn's warehouse receipts remained at 0, and effective forecasts decreased by 6 to 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: Prices of北疆3128机采 and 南疆3128机采 increased by 130 yuan/ton with a 0.90% and 0.91% increase respectively; prices in Shandong increased slightly, while in Hebei decreased slightly. The 3128B index remained unchanged, and the international cotton index M increased by 0.87%. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained stable, and its arrival price increased slightly [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 to - 65 yuan/ton, and the spread between 北疆3128机采 and CF601 remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The domestic cotton spot market had weak trading, with smooth low - price transactions. Spot basis was mostly stable, with some local decreases. The purchase price of Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton increased [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market mainly had price - following sales. Market sentiment improved slightly due to the recent increase in Zhengzhou cotton, but downstream enterprises still purchased on a "use - as - needed" basis, with limited new orders. The spinning mill's operating rate increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years, and traders were generally waiting and had weak inventory - building willingness [2] - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell yesterday. Due to the lack of fundamental data guidance, overall trading was light, and the market continued to focus on international economic and trade situations [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber and bottle - chip futures are in a low - level shock, with limited downside space [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: - Futures prices of short - fiber contracts 2511, 2512, and 2601 decreased by 12, 8, and 62 respectively compared to the previous day. The PF11 - 12 spread decreased by 4, and the PF12 - 01 spread increased. The short - fiber主力基差 increased by 3. - The short - fiber主力持仓量 decreased by 74,771, and the short - fiber主力成交量 decreased by 205. - The short - fiber华东现货 price decreased by 5, and the short - fiber产销 rate decreased by 2% to 77% [1] - **Bottle - chip**: - Futures prices of bottle - chip contracts 2511, 2512, and 2601 decreased by 16, 14, and 18 respectively compared to the previous day. The PR11 - 12 spread decreased by 2, and the PR12 - 01 spread increased. The PR主力基差 decreased by 1. - The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1907, and the bottle - chip主力成交量 decreased by 37,819. - The bottle - chip华东现货 price decreased by 15, and the bottle - chip华南现货 price decreased by 10 [1] Spot News - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber futures trended weakly. Factories maintained the guaranteed price, and there were discount negotiations for transactions. Some started selling the November contract. The overall sales of factories were okay, with an average production - sales ratio of 77% as of 3:00 pm [1] - **Bottle - chip**: The prices of upstream raw material futures dropped, and the quotes of polyester bottle - chip factories were partially lowered by 20 yuan. The market transactions of polyester bottle - chips were okay. Orders from October to December were mostly transacted at 5550 - 5680 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly lower at around 5540 yuan/ton ex - factory and a small amount slightly higher at 5700 - 5710 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2) Core View - The short - term trend of styrene is a negative feedback with a neutral trend intensity. It will be in a volatile pattern. The valuation center of chemical products has moved down due to the rapid decline in crude oil prices. There is a demand for short - position profit - taking around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene. In October, there is an expectation of reduced production at some domestic major refineries due to overseas sanctions, and the inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene at ports have turned into de - stocking expectations. The downstream demand for styrene is still not optimistic [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For styrene futures contracts: the price of styrene2512 decreased by 95 to 6,848; styrene2601 decreased by 99 to 6,875; styrene2610 increased by 13 to 7,387. EB - BZ increased by 25 to 1,315. Non - integrated profit decreased by 12 to - 143, and integrated profit decreased by 67 to 689. EB120EB01 increased by 4 to - 27, EB01 - EB10 decreased by 112 to - 512. The N + 1 contract decreased by 20 to 7,460, and the N + 2 contract increased by 20 to 7,390 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, with a neutral outlook on its trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1] Spot News - Short - position profit - taking occurs. The valuation of chemical products has declined with the drop in crude oil prices. There is a profit - taking demand for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene. In October, some domestic major refineries may reduce production due to overseas sanctions, with an expected monthly output loss of 2 - 4 million tons of pure benzene. The inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene at ports have changed to de - stocking expectations. The market is mainly trading on cost contradictions. The downstream of styrene is in a negative feedback stage, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [2]

| 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 11480 | | 100 | | | 价 格 | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11050 | | 150 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 11460 | | 0 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2511 | 元/吨 | 11410 | | 360 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | 12155 | | 485 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11570 | | 290 | | | | | 单 位 | 成交量 | 较前日 | 持仓量 | 较昨日 | | | 生猪2511 | ...

多晶硅：情绪回落 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 工业硅：仓单短期去化 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,565 | 135 | -240 | -100 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） Si2511持仓量（手） | 190,332 | -8,498 | -51,221 | -432,616 | | | | | 114,236 | -17,557 | -51,486 | -163,829 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,340 | -2,000 | 1,600 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 150,772 | -44,025 | -96,204 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 56,806 | ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The spot supply of lithium carbonate is tight, and the upward - oscillating trend is expected to continue [1] - The trend strength of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a relatively strong market sentiment [4] Group 2: Fundamental Data Futures Contracts - 2511 contract: The closing price is 75,700, the trading volume is 169,108, and the open interest is 138,434. Compared with different time points (T - 1, T - 5, etc.), there are corresponding changes in price, volume, and open interest [2] - 2601 contract: The closing price is 75,940, the trading volume is 188,791, and the open interest is 293,283. Similar to the 2511 contract, there are changes compared with different time points [2] Basis and Other Data - Spot - 2511 is - 1,700, and Spot - 2601 is - 1,940. The basis between 2511 and 2601 is - 240. The difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon is 2,250, and Spot - CIF is 7,043 [2] Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 851, lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,825. Battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750. There are also prices and price changes for other lithium salts and related products [2] Group 3: Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 73,991 yuan/ton, up 642 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,000 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,750 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton [3] - In September, China imported 19,597 tons of lithium carbonate, a 10% decrease from the previous month but a 20% increase year - on - year. Exports were 151 tons, a 59% decrease from the previous month and a 9% decrease year - on - year [3][4]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 21 日 LLDPE：趋势偏弱 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2601 | 6879 | -0.20% | 218,340 | -3312 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 01合约基差 | 1 1 | | 1 6 | | | | 01-05合约价差 | -42 | | -33 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | | | | 华北 | 6890 | | 6890 | | | | 华东 | 6900 | | 6900 | | | | 华南 | 7080 | | 7080 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 成本方面，原油价格虽有上涨，而成本支撑不足；供应方面，随着前期检修装置重启，进口资源陆续到 港，供应 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations, with ferrosilicon and silicomanganese having cost - based bottom support, and logs expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - **Fundamental Data**: The futures closing price was 767.0 yuan/ton, down 4.0 yuan/ton (-0.52%); the open interest increased by 10,158 lots to 555,584 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Karara fines (65%) rose 1.0 yuan/ton to 902.0 yuan/ton, while the price of Super Special fines (56.5%) dropped 5.0 yuan/ton to 700.0 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the 5 - year LPR remained at 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR remained at 3%. In September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, with Beijing and Shanghai rising 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 0.6% and 1.0% respectively. Second - tier and third - tier cities also saw price declines [6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [8] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Investment Outlook**: Wide - range fluctuations [2][10][11] - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,045 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton (-0.03%); for hot - rolled coil HC2601, the closing price was 3,215 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%). In terms of spot prices, the price of rebar in Beijing rose 10 yuan/ton to 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in Guangzhou rose 20 yuan/ton to 3,240 yuan/ton [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In September 2025, China's crude steel output was 73.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the average daily output was 2.449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to September, the crude steel output was 746.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%. In the first ten days of October, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased by 7.5% month - on - month [12][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coil [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Investment Outlook**: Cost - based bottom support, wide - range fluctuations [2][15] - **Fundamental Data**: For ferrosilicon 2601, the closing price was 5,436 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; for silicomanganese 2601, the closing price was 5,738 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia rose 20 yuan/ton to 5,700 yuan/ton [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On October 20, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was reported, with some regions having price changes. In September 2025, China's imports of ferrosilicon with a silicon content greater than 55% increased by 38.54% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year; exports increased by 16.08% month - on - month and 8.04% year - on - year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [18] Coke and Coking Coal - **Investment Outlook**: Expectations are volatile, wide - range fluctuations [2][19][20] - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal JM2601, the closing price was 1,216 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton (3.1%); for coke J2601, the closing price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The spot price of Jinquan Meng 5 coking coal increased by 48 yuan/ton to 1,307 yuan/ton [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to the iron ore section, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [22] Logs - **Investment Outlook**: Fluctuate repeatedly [2][23] - **Fundamental Data**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 802.5 yuan, down 0.2% day - on - day and up 1.9% week - on - week; the trading volume decreased by 43.2%. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained mostly unchanged [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other sections, on October 20, the LPR remained unchanged, and in September, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in different - tier cities showed declines [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26]