2025 年 10 月 22 日 棕榈油：产地驱动不明，关注棕油下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025 年 10 月 1-20 日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月 同期增加 1.45%，出油率环比上月同期增加 0.24%，产量环比上月同期增加 2.71%。 AmSpec：马来西亚 10 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 965066 吨，较上月同期出口的 941984 吨增加 2.5%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,294 | -0.26% | 9,270 | -0.26% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,294 | -0.05% | 8,252 | -0.51% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,864 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers individual ratings for various commodities, including "downside space limited," "rebound in the short - term," "sideways - to - bullish," "sideways in the short - term," "sideways with oil," "weak trend," etc. [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and provides trading suggestions for multiple energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply - demand balance, cost changes, macro - events, and policy impacts. For example, for PX, it suggests that the supply - demand is slightly tight, and factories can consider appropriate hedging; for PTA, it recommends reducing short positions as demand is expected to improve; for rubber, it is expected to be sideways - to - bullish; for synthetic rubber, it is expected to be sideways in the short - term, etc. [12][13][15] 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **Fundamentals**: PX prices were stable with some fluctuations, and the开工 rate of Chinese PX factories decreased slightly. PTA futures oscillated, and the spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere. MEG's arrival volume at some ports was announced, and the device load and coal - based start - up rate changed. Polyester's sales volume showed partial surges, and direct - spun polyester staple sales were average. [5][10][11] - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term sideways market, and factories are advised to hedge when PXN rises to $250/ton. PTA is in a sideways market, and short positions should be reduced. MEG short positions should also be reduced. [12][13][14] Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The futures and spot prices of rubber increased, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, and overseas raw material prices were firm. [16][18] - **Trend**: Sideways - to - bullish [15] Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of butadiene rubber increased, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread decreased. The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene in the spot market changed slightly, and the start - up rate remained stable. [19] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways in the short - term. There is fundamental pressure due to high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and there are macro - events for support. [21] Asphalt - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of asphalt increased slightly, trading volume and positions changed. The basis decreased, and the monthly spread increased. The wholesale prices of asphalt in different regions decreased, and the refinery start - up and inventory rates increased slightly. [23] - **Trend**: Sideways with oil [22] LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of LLDPE decreased slightly, the basis and monthly spread changed. The market price continued to decline weakly, and the terminal replenishment enthusiasm was low. [36] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the raw material cost support weakened, the supply pressure increased, and the inventory pressure was high. [37] PP - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PP decreased slightly, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic PP market was weakly sorted, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high. [40][41] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the oil price dropped, and the supply was high. [41] Caustic Soda - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of caustic soda was 2375, the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 800, and the basis was 125. The Shandong liquid caustic soda market was generally stable. [44] - **Trend and Reason**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. There is no significant supply pressure in the short - term, but the alumina industry's low - profit pattern may affect the long - term demand. [45] Pulp - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, trading volume rose, and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread decreased. The domestic and international prices of pulp showed different trends. The market was stable, and the demand improvement was limited. [49][50][51] - **Trend**: Sideways [48] Glass - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of glass decreased, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic float glass market price decreased slightly, and the trading atmosphere was general. [53] - **Trend**: Weak trend [53] Methanol - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of methanol increased slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The basis decreased, and the monthly spread increased. The spot price of methanol in different regions changed, and the market was regionally adjusted. [56][58] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways with pressure. There is fundamental pressure from high imports and production, but the valuation is moderately low, and there are macro - events for support. [58][59] Urea - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of urea increased slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The basis and monthly spread changed. The factory and trader prices of urea in different regions changed. The enterprise inventory increased, and the market trading atmosphere was weak. [61][62] - **Trend and Reason**: Sideways in the short - term, weak trend in the medium - term. The export has limited impact on price due to high social inventory, and the domestic demand is weak. [62][63] Styrene - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of styrene decreased, the EB - BZ spread increased, and the profit of non - integrated and integrated production decreased. The market is expected to be in a short - term sideways pattern, and the downstream demand is not optimistic. [64][65] - **Trend**: Short - term negative feedback [64] Soda Ash - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of soda ash decreased, the basis and monthly spread changed. The domestic soda ash market was stable with oscillations, and the production decreased slightly. The downstream demand was stable, and it is expected to be weakly sideways in the short - term. [69] - **Trend**: Weak trend [70] LPG and Propylene - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of LPG and propylene changed slightly, trading volume and positions changed. The spreads of different regions changed. The start - up rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation decreased slightly. [72] - **Trend**: LPG's valuation is being repaired, and there are still macro - risks; propylene is in a short - term low - level sideways pattern. [72] PVC - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of PVC was 4699, the spot price in East China was 4600, the basis was - 99, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread was - 301. The PVC price oscillated weakly, the supply was expected to increase slowly, and the demand was stable. [79] - **Trend and Reason**: Weak trend. Affected by the trade war, the cost decreased, the supply was high, the domestic demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. [79] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed slightly, trading volume and positions decreased. The spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions changed slightly, and the spread between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil was temporarily stable. [82] - **Trend**: Fuel oil is in a narrow - range sideways pattern with short - term weakness; low - sulfur fuel oil continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil. [82] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) increased, trading volume and positions changed. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased, and the spot freight rates of different carriers were announced. [84] - **Trend**: The reality is better than expected, and it is relatively resistant to decline. [84]

沥青：随油震荡 2025 年 10 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 【基本面跟踪】 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,266 | 0.93% | 3,268 | 0.06% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,190 | 0.73% | 3,198 | 0.25% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 40,849 | (4,645) | 35,326 | (9,329) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 40,280 | 9,532 | 78,188 | (3,173) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 13040 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

2025 年 10 月 22 日 工业硅：仓单继续去化 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,505 188,642 | -60 -1,690 | -15 -98,635 | -235 -158,977 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 107,518 | -6,718 | -55,156 | -180,253 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,715 | 375 | 725 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 121,870 | -28,902 | -175,833 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 52,237 | -4,569 | -29,151 | - | | ...

Group 1: Report Title and General Outlook - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Short - term Low - level Volatility" dated October 22, 2025 [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4] Group 3: Market Information CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 21, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 440 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; butane was 440 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars/ton. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 444 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple companies have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date, and Ningbo Jinfa New Material Co., Ltd. having its PDH Phase I device under maintenance from September 29, 2025, to the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting full - plant maintenance on May 14, 2024, ending in October 2025, and Guangzhou Petrochemical having a rotational inspection starting on October 17, 2025, ending in early December 2025 [6] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking LPG Futures Prices - PG2511 yesterday's closing price was 4,237, with a -0.02% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,249, with a 0.28% increase; PG2512 yesterday's closing price was 4,091, with a -0.12% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,098, with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 yesterday's closing price was 6,035, with a 0.15% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 6,044, with a 0.15% increase; PL2602 yesterday's closing price was 6,083, with a 0.20% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 6,092, with a 0.15% increase [1] LPG Futures Positions and Trading Volumes - PG2511 yesterday's trading volume was 19,383, a decrease of 4579 from the previous day, and the position was 24,343, a decrease of 5229; PG2512 yesterday's trading volume was 63,874, an increase of 15455, and the position was 92,303, an increase of 4851; PL2601 yesterday's trading volume was 10,123, an increase of 3177, and the position was 11,282, an increase of 53; PL2602 yesterday's trading volume was 4,370, an increase of 2046, and the position was 5,416, an increase of 465 [1] LPG Price Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 203 yesterday, compared to 242 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 223 yesterday, compared to 242 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was -25 yesterday, compared to -16 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 40 yesterday, compared to 49 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was -10 yesterday, compared to -1 the previous day [1] LPG Industry Chain Important Data - This week, the PDH operating rate was 68.8%, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1%, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9%, compared to 45.1% last week [1]

2025年10月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，价格承压 | 5 | | 锌：外盘支撑 | 7 | | 铅：国内库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：仓单去化延续，短期价格偏坚挺 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单继续去化 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木： ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-22 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 英国、德国、法国等领导人就俄乌停火发表联合声明 观点分享： 据央视新闻 10 月 22 日消息，当地时间 21 日，据英国首相府消息，乌克兰总统泽连斯 基、英国首相斯塔默、德国总理梅尔茨、法国总统马克龙、意大利总理梅洛尼、波兰总理图 斯克、葡萄牙总统科斯塔、挪威首相斯特勒、芬兰总统斯图布、丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森、西 班牙首相桑切斯、瑞典首相克里斯特松以及欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当天发表联合声明。声 明表示，各方一致支持争取公正而持久的和平，并赞同美国总统特朗普提出的立即停火、以 当前接触线作为谈判起点的主张。声明重申，国际边界不应以武力方式改变。各方强调，将 继续加强对俄罗斯经济和国防工业的制裁与压力。声明还透露，多国正研究动用被冻结的俄 罗斯主权资产，为乌克兰提供必要的财政资源。各国领导人计划于本周晚些时候在欧洲理事 会及"意愿联盟"会议框架下继续磋商，推进相关工作并进一步加强对乌克兰的支持。特朗 普称尚未就与普京的会晤做出决定；泽连斯基在讲话中表示，乌方已完成与欧洲伙伴即将举 行会晤的准备工作，并将在 ...

2025年10月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：产地驱动不明，关注棕油下方支撑 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面偏弱 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：关注印度食糖和乙醇份额变化 | 7 | | 棉花：延续反弹势头 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：屠宰、肥标及二育情绪共振 | 11 | | 花生：关注现货 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 棕榈油：产地驱动不明，关注棕油下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,294 | -0.26% | 9,270 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - PX has limited downside space, and it is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. The supply and demand of PX are slightly tight [1][8][9]. - PTA has limited downside space, with demand expected to improve marginally. It is a volatile market, and short positions should be reduced [1][9]. - MEG has a better demand expectation and may rebound in the short - term. Short positions should be reduced [1][10]. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures on the previous trading day were 6332, 4414, 4004, 6070, and 437.7 respectively, with daily changes of 64, 30, 1, 42, and 1.9, and daily change rates of 1.02%, 0.68%, 0.02%, 0.70%, and 0.44% respectively. The month - spreads of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 also had corresponding changes [2]. - **Spot Data**: The previous trading day's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were $784.33/ton, 4325 yuan/ton, 4090 yuan/ton, $540/ton, and $61.09/barrel respectively, with corresponding price changes [2]. - **Spot Processing Fee**: The previous trading day's PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were $246.17/ton, 144.83 yuan/ton, 380.77 yuan/ton, 154.12 yuan/ton, and - $4.34/ton respectively, with corresponding changes [2]. Market Dynamics - **PX**: The naphtha price was stagnant at the end of the session. PX price was also stagnant, with no transactions in the negotiations. The PX price was estimated at $784/ton CFR, up $1 from last Friday. Some market participants believe that the price increase is driven by sentiment or a natural rebound. The operating rate of Chinese PX factories decreased from about 87.5% to about 85% in the week ending October 17. Market participants suggest reducing PX production due to low PTA activity [2][3][5]. - **Toluene and Mixed Xylene**: In the week ending October 17, the prices of toluene and mixed xylene increased slightly. Refinery shutdowns and supply limitations continued to support the market. The overall tightness is expected to last until the end of October [5]. - **PTA**: The PTA futures fluctuated and consolidated, and the spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with a weak spot basis [7]. - **MEG**: From October 20 to October 26, the arrival quantities at Zhangjiagang, Taicang, and Shanghai ports were about 17,000 tons, 36,000 tons, and 0 tons respectively, and the planned arrival quantity at some main ports was about 53,000 tons [7]. - **Polyester**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased locally, with an estimated average sales rate of 160 - 170% by 3:30 pm. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were average, with an average sales rate of 66% by 3:00 pm [8]. Trends and Suggestions - **PX**: It is a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. Pay attention to the impact of Yulong Petrochemical's possible reduction in CDU load on aromatic hydrocarbon production. PX supply and demand are slightly tight, and oil prices have recovered recently [8][9]. - **PTA**: Demand is expected to improve marginally, and it is a volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning of Xin凤鸣's new PTA device and the progress of India's new PTA device GAIL. The profit of the polyester sector has recovered, and overall consumption in the industry chain is expected to improve [9]. - **MEG**: Short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the commissioning and maintenance of relevant devices and the possible planned - out maintenance of coal - based devices due to coal price changes [10].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 昨日收盘价 994.06 | 日涨幅 2.45% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 945.44 | 夜盘涨幅 -4.64% | | | 黄金T+D | 986.89 | 1.35% | 944.47 | -4.55% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4138.50 | -5.39% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 11805 | 0.51% | 11285.00 | -4.86% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 11759 | -0.16% | 11261 | -4.86% | | | Comex白银2512 | 48.160 | -6.30% | - | - ...