2026 年 2 月 3 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 黄金期货将偏强宽幅震荡 白银、锡期 货将震荡偏弱 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： | 期货品种 | 主力合约 | 趋势 | 阻力位 | | | 支撑位 | | | | | | 重点备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股指 | IF2603 | 偏强震荡 | 4606 | 和 | 465 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 3 日 困境与破局：透视宏观纹理，重塑商品 Beta 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 shaowanyi@gtht.com 李翔云（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03149627 lixiangyun@gtht.com 报告导读： 本文旨在解决商品投资领域"资金配置意愿强"与"工具端区分度弱"的矛盾。面对现有指数高度共 性化的特征，我们将视角转向商品期货未被充分挖掘的宏观风格 Beta，试图为市场提供超越传统贝塔的 差异化配置路径。 我们成功开发了两条风格鲜明的商品期货多头被动指数： 商品宏观·锐意进取指数：基于有色、黑色及贵金属板块构建，具备周期进攻属性； 商品宏观·稳健韧性指数：基于能化、农产品及贵金属板块构建，具备周期防守属性。 ——大类资产配置系列（一） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 ⚫ 困境：大类资产配置中的"工具断层"。当前国内商品基金市场呈现总量微薄、品种集中的特 征，与海外成熟市场全谱系、功能化的工具体系形成鲜明反差。我们认为正是战略资产配置层面 商品配置工具的结构性失衡，使得战术资产配置层面投资组合优化的潜力尚未得到充分释放。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Followed the sharp decline in oil prices, with an interval shock market [1] - PTA: Interval shock market [1] - MEG: Interval operation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - PX is in a pre - holiday unilateral shock market, with fundamentals gradually weakening and entering a inventory accumulation pattern. Consider the long PX and short EB hedge [8] - PTA is in an interval shock market with a bearish monthly spread. Short when the processing fee is above 450. Pay attention to the support in the 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton interval [9] - MEG is in a unilateral interval shock market. The supply pressure is still high, but the downside space below 3600 yuan/ton is limited, and the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [10] 3. Key Points by Related Content Futures Market - **PX**: The closing price of the main contract was 7150, down 250 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PX5 - 9 spread closed at 20, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The closing price of the main contract was 5092, down 178 or 3.38% from the previous day. The PTA5 - 9 spread closed at - 8, up 4 from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The closing price of the main contract was 3767, down 146 or 3.73% from the previous day. The MEG5 - 9 spread closed at - 104, up 1 from the previous day [2] - **PF**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484, down 172 or 2.58% from the previous day. The PF3 - 4 spread closed at - 48, up 8 from the previous day [2] - **SC**: The closing price of the main contract was 449, down 21.8 or 4.63% from the previous day. The SC2 - 3 spread closed at - 7.2, down 2 from the previous day [2] Spot Market - **PX**: The CFR China price was 891.67 dollars/ton, down 22.66 dollars from the previous day. The PX - naphtha spread was 316.83 dollars/ton, down 8.17 dollars from the previous day [2] - **PTA**: The East China price was 5125 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day. The processing fee was 485.25 yuan/ton, up 86.82 yuan from the previous day [2] - **MEG**: The spot price was 3712 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan from the previous day [2] - **Naphtha MOPJ**: The price was 581.38 dollars/ton, down 15.12 dollars from the previous day. The MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread was - 4.34 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] - **Dated Brent**: The price was 68.77 dollars/barrel, down 3.94 dollars from the previous day [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: On February 2, the PX price fell. The 3 - month MOPJ was estimated at 571 dollars/ton CFR. The PX was estimated at 891 dollars/ton, down 22 dollars from last Friday. The domestic device start - up rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian device start - up rate was 81.6% (+1%) [3][8] - **PTA**: A 100 - million - ton PTA device in the southwest is preparing to restart. The PTA start - up rate remained unchanged at 76.6%. The polyester start - up rate is expected to be 88% in January, 80.5% in February, and 91% in March [3][9] - **MEG**: On February 2, the port inventory in some main ports in East China was about 89.7 million tons, an increase of 3.9 million tons from the previous period. The device start - up rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%). The import volume from January to February will remain high, with a monthly average of over 70 million tons [3][10] Polyester Market - Two polyester devices in Shaoxing with a total of 40 million tons and two with a total of 55 million tons are planned to be shut down for maintenance starting from the 5th. A 20 - million - ton polyester device in Huzhou has been shut down for maintenance since the weekend [5] - In January, the average sales volume of domestic mainstream direct - spinning filament factories was estimated to be around 94%. On February 2, the sales volume of Jiangsu and Zhejiang filament was light, with an average sales volume estimated to be 2 - 30% by 3:30 pm. The average sales volume of direct - spinning staple fiber factories was 44% by 3:00 pm [5][6] Trend Strength - The trend strength of p - xylene is 0 - The trend strength of PTA is 0 - The trend strength of MEG is 0 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that due to geopolitical easing, crude oil may enter a weak phase. The trend strength of crude oil is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures closed down $0.21/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of -0.32%, at $65.21/barrel; ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 closed down $0.02/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of -0.03%, at $70.69/barrel; SC2603 crude oil futures closed down $12.90, a decline of 2.67%, at $470.00/barrel [1] European Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, and Forties in different regions all have a closed arbitrage state, with reasons including price disadvantages, refining value disadvantages, and high freight costs [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties in the North Sea has a closed arbitrage state due to a significant refining value disadvantage despite a tariff advantage [3] Southeast Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI in the US has a closed arbitrage state due to freight costs; Eagle Ford in the US has an open arbitrage state, relying on its refining value advantage [5] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, and Bonny Light all have a closed arbitrage state, mainly due to the price advantage of Urals [6] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Murban, Bonny Light, Forties, and Eagle Ford in different regions all have a closed arbitrage state, with price disadvantages and high freight costs being the main reasons [7] Key Market News - US and Iranian senior officials are expected to meet in Istanbul on Friday to ease tensions. Iran is willing to close or suspend its nuclear plan. The US will cancel the 25% additional tariff on Indian imports due to India's reduced purchase of Russian oil [10]

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：跟随油价大幅回调，区间震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：区间震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：区间操作 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱20260203 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位回落 | 6 | | LLDPE：进口利润缩窄递盘有限，油价支撑转弱 | 8 | | PP：成本扰动较大，利润或趋修复 | 9 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，未来预期较强 | 10 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260203 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 15 | | 尿素：短期横盘整理 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：偏强震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 | 21 | | 丙烯：上行驱动转弱，关注成本端扰动 | 21 | | PVC：情绪偏强，基本面未有明显改善 | 24 | | 燃料油：大幅回撤，高波动态势延续 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：跟跌走势为主，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收缩 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线 ...

2026年02月03日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：释放风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：情绪悲观，价格弱势 | 4 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，限制价格下跌 | 8 | | 锡：回落整理 | 9 | | 铝：等待市场修复 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：在震荡中小幅修复 | 12 | | 钯：韧性偏强但仍然低位震荡 | 12 | | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 14 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 黄金：释放风险 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 03 日 纸浆：宽幅震荡 20260203 | | | 表 1：基本面数据 纸浆趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示最看 空，2 表示最看多。 【行业新闻】 昨日纸浆期货价格震荡下行，而现货市场则表现平淡，价格波动有限，市场缺乏明确方向。当前市场需求 端维持疲软的状态，下游纸厂采购意愿比较低，纸浆交投基本发生在贸易商群体之间，终端需求不足。整体来 看，供需基本面未出现改善迹象，高库存与弱需求的矛盾压制市场走势，建议关注主要港口库存的变动以及下 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纸浆主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5.266 | 5, 300 | -34 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 5. 278 | 5, 334 | -56 | | | | 成交量(手) | 314. 614 | 476 ...

| | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 132,440 | -15,760 | -33,240 | -14,820 | 10,860 | 49,780 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 644,314 | 91,646 | 68,639 | 315,188 | 184,784 | 587,931 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 347,698 | -24,903 | -69,021 | -63,633 | -163,611 | 252,523 | | | 盘 面 | 2607合约（收盘价） | 132,640 | -16,220 | -34,020 | -15,160 | 10,560 | 50,180 | | | | 2607合约（成交量） | 102,209 | 15,457 | -2,894 | 42,107 | -31,059 | 96,594 | | | | 2607合约（持仓量 ...

2026 年 2 月 3 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：盘面震荡，跟随商品市场情绪波动 豆一：国储拍卖成交较好，影响偏多 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4393 -33（-0.75%） | 4387 +14（+0.32%） | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2750 -26（-0.94%） | 2747 -9 （-0.33%） | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1060 -4.25（-0.40%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 294.3 +0.7（+0.24%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 3100～3120， | | | | | 山东 持平； | 持平； 5月M2605+50， 5-7月M2605+10， | 持平； 持平； ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The copper market is currently experiencing pessimistic sentiment and weak prices, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 98,580, down 4.92% during the day, and 100,820 at night, up 2.27%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,900, down 1.30% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 865,268, a decrease of 611,602 from the previous day, and the open interest was 604,349, a decrease of 53,190. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 49,201, a decrease of 2,097, and the open interest was 327,000, a decrease of 5,073 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 158,527, an increase of 1,676 from the previous day, and the LME Copper inventory was 174,675, a decrease of 300. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 21.68%, a decrease of 2.21% [1] - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads, including LME copper spreads, warehouse warrant premiums, bill premiums, and spot - futures spreads, showed different degrees of change compared to the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US January ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, indicating a substantial expansion of the US manufacturing industry. The US January employment report will not be released on time due to a partial government shutdown [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 890,346 tons, an increase of 8% compared to 2024. Chile's Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was lower than its production guidance, Glencore's 2025 copper production decreased by 11%, and Southern Copper expects its copper production to decline in the next two years. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Canada's Capstone Copper has resumed operations at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile despite a union strike [1][3]