今日生西弱势震荡。本周螺纹表需回瑜悟皮继续放缓,产量短期趋稳，库存缓慢去化,绝对值仍处于偏低水平。热卷需求好 转，产量相对平稳，库存继续回落。高炉延续复产态势，节奏仍有波折，下游制造业投资增速放缓，基礎投资边际回驳，地产 销售边际走弱,新开工继续大幅下滑,小阳亮剑售回暖力度有待观察。限产预期对盘面仍有支撑,不过由于终端离求玻弱,市 场心态较为谨慎,盘面反弹动能不足,弱势震荡格局或延续,关注旺季需求强度及政策落地情况。 【铁矿】 | | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年03月28日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ななな | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热轧卷板 | ななな | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆★ | | | 锰硅 | ★★☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★★☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the basic situation of the coking coal spot market, including demand, supply, import and export, trade, and logistics. It also details the coking coal futures, including contracts, trading systems, delivery targets, and related business basics, and summarizes trading strategies and market participants [4][22][34] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot and Market Supply - Demand Basic Situation - **Definition and Classification of Coking Coal**: Coking coal is a type of bituminous coal, and coking coal can be further divided into gas coal, gas - fat coal, 1/3 coking coal, fat coal, coking coal, and lean coal. Coking coal, also known as main coking coal, is a key raw material for coke production [4] - **Demand for Coking Coal**: Coking coal consumption depends directly on coke production and indirectly on pig iron production. China's coke production peaked in 2014 and then declined. In 2024, China's coking industry removed significant production capacity, with an annual coke output of 4.89 billion tons. Coking enterprises are concentrated in North, East, and Northwest China, and the coking coal industry has a bargaining advantage over the coking industry [5] - **Supply of Coking Coal**: China's coking clean coal production peaked in 2013, declined, and then gradually recovered after supply - side reforms. In 2024, it dropped to 4.73 billion tons due to the rectification of some large mines. Production is mainly concentrated in Shanxi, Shandong, and Hebei, with Shanxi accounting for about 45% [9] - **Import and Export of Coking Coal**: China is a net importer of coking coal. Since 2006, exports have decreased, and imports have increased. In 2024, imports reached 1.22 billion tons, and exports were only 730,000 tons, with an import dependence of about 21%. The main import sources are Mongolia, Russia, Australia, etc. [14] - **Trade and Logistics of Coking Coal**: Domestic coking coal trade is mainly from north to south and west to east. Overseas imports enter through ports and borders. Rail transportation is the main mode, and large state - owned mines use long - term agreement pricing, while private mines use market pricing [21] 2. Coking Coal Futures Basics - **Coking Coal Futures Contracts**: The contract details were modified in 1907 and 2304 contracts, mainly regarding delivery standards. The 2025 contract details include a trading unit of 60 tons/hand, a minimum price change of 0.5 yuan/ton, etc. [22][23] - **Coking Coal Futures Trading System** - **Margin System**: The exchange margin is 12% of the contract value, and it is adjusted according to the approaching delivery date and contract position [24] - **Circuit - Breaker System**: The daily limit is ±8% of the previous trading day's settlement price. The limit is adjusted when there are consecutive limit - up or limit - down situations [25] - **Position Limit System**: Limits are set for non - futures company members and customers at different trading stages, and individual customers are not allowed to enter the delivery month [27][29] - **Coking Coal Futures Delivery Targets**: After the modification of delivery standards, washed (main) coking coal and fat coal are suitable for the contract, and medium - sulfur low - ash main coking coal is the most common delivery product. Brand delivery will start from the 2601 contract, with four brands currently [31] 3. Coking Coal Futures Business Basics - **Calculation of Coking Coal Basis**: The pricing target of coking coal futures needs to meet delivery requirements, and moisture and other factors need to be considered. Rolling delivery was introduced in the 2009 contract, and there are warehouse and factory - warehouse delivery methods. The minimum delivery unit is 60 tons, and the warehouse receipt is valid for one month [34] - **Summary of Coking Coal Futures Strategies**: It is not recommended for non - industrial customers to participate in the near - month contract delivery. In addition to hedging, there are inter - period and inter - commodity arbitrage strategies. However, the liquidity of forward contracts is poor, and there are differences between the actual and simulated coking profits [38][39] - **Summary of Coking Coal Futures Participants**: The participation and liquidity of the coking coal futures market are relatively low. Entities such as downstream coking enterprises, steel mills, and import and port traders have participated, but the participation of coking coal mines is limited [40]

【沥青】 | ///> 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年03月27日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | 女女女 | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 文女女 | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 亚盘时段国际油价高位回落,S005含约涨0.24%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期去化334.1万桶,汽油、中质馏分产 品库存同样泵得去阵。此前油市交易主线为OPEC+强化减产补偿对盈余压力的缓解,美国对伊朗、委内瑞拉制裁加码 带来的供应紧缩预期,但随着油价连续反弹后续制裁进一步加码并带来的油价提振念发有限,市场交易焦点或特向 原油供需面。上周岸罐库存去阵但包括在途、浮仓在内的总体原油黑库,油市或将面临多空转向,持续关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The addition of the equilibrium moisture penalty will guide the delivery underlying of coke futures to shift from wet - quenched coke on a dry - basis to both dry - quenched and wet - quenched coke. After April 1st, 2026, if the delivery seller provides wet - quenched coke, there will be an additional penalty of 110 yuan/ton after dry - basis conversion. This will further correct the delivery cost difference between dry - quenched and wet - quenched coke and encourage more deliverable products to participate in coke delivery. For J2604 and subsequent contracts, the coke futures price should have an additional premium of 110 yuan/ton on the basis of the previous contract's valuation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content - **Policy Change**: On March 27, 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that starting from the first trading day of April 2026, standard warehouse receipts will be registered according to the revised rules, applicable to J2604 and subsequent contracts. The main change is that the concept of equilibrium moisture is added to the quality requirements of the standard product, with the equilibrium moisture of the standard product required to be ≤1%. If the equilibrium moisture of the substitute is >1%, a one - time deduction of 110 yuan/ton will be applied. The exchange also provided a detailed explanation of the detection method of equilibrium moisture [2]. - **Impact on Delivery and Price**: Taking the current spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port (about 1360 yuan/ton) as an example, the price on the futures market without quality premium or discount is 1462 yuan/ton after deducting about 7% moisture. After introducing the concept of equilibrium moisture, the price on the futures market becomes 1572 yuan/ton. According to the tender price of a large steel mill in East China, the price difference between quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke on a dry - basis and pure dry - quenched coke is about 140 yuan/ton. After the standard modification, the delivery cost difference between the two is further corrected [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is mainly oscillating, with the terminal demand being relatively weak and the market sentiment being cautious. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate in the short - term and face risks of decline after the peak of hot metal production. The coke market suggests short - term observation. The coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon markets suggest short - selling on rebounds [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread surface demand recovery slows down, production is stable in the short - term, and inventory is slowly decreasing. The hot - rolled coil demand improves, production is relatively stable, and inventory continues to decline. The blast furnace continues to resume production, but the terminal demand is weak, and the market sentiment is cautious [1] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment rises, the domestic arrival volume drops from a high level, and the port inventory slightly accumulates. The terminal demand continues to improve but at a slower pace. The hot metal production is expected to continue to recover, but the further recovery space is limited. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price remains resilient [2] Coke - The price oscillates upward. The daily hot metal production rises significantly, the coking profit is compressed, and the daily production continues to decline slightly. The overall coke inventory slightly increases and is at a high level, and the downstream has certain restocking actions in the short - term [3] Coking Coal - The hot metal production rises significantly, the coking coal mine production slightly decreases, and the number of shut - down mines remains at 16. The spot auction volume increases, and the sales sentiment improves slightly. The overall coking coal inventory slightly decreases, and the downstream has small - scale restocking. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds [5] Silicomanganese - The price oscillates weakly. The absolute inventory level at Tianjin Port decreases, the manganese ore spot price and transaction price decline. The hot metal production rises, the silicomanganese supply slightly decreases from a high level, and the overall inventory significantly accumulates, suppressing the price [6] Ferrosilicon - The price oscillates weakly. The market has certain expectations for carbon - emission policies, but the actual impact is expected to be small. The hot metal production rises significantly, the export demand generally declines month - on - month, and the metal magnesium production decreases. The supply slightly decreases, the market transaction is average, and the inventory continues to accumulate [7]

| 《八》国投期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年03月27日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | 聚丙烯 | 女女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 塑料 | ななな | PVC | ☆☆☆ | | | 烧碱 | ★☆★ | PX | ★☆★ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PTA | 女女女 | 乙二醇 | ★☆★ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 短纤 | 文女女 | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 王雪忆 分析师 | | 统域 | ★☆☆ 瓶片 | | ★☆★ | F03125010 | | | | | | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | | | | | F03089068 Z0016691 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【甲醇】 甲醇盘面延续区间震荡运行。内地以及港口持续去阵,但幅度均有所放缓。伊朗装置逐步回归, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: White star, indicating a short - term balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Pulp: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Sugar: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Apple: Red star, representing a bullish trend with a driving force for price increase, but limited operability on the market [1][9] - Timber: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - 20 - rubber: One red star, indicating a bullish trend but limited operability on the market [1][9] - Natural rubber: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] - Butadiene rubber: White star, suggesting temporary observation [1][9] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, production, consumption, and inventory data [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton prices declined, and the mainstream basis of domestic cotton remained stable. Cotton yarn demand was weak, and future textile exports were not optimistic due to tariffs. US cotton's weekly signing data weakened, and there were expectations of a significant reduction in planting area. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Internationally, the trading focus of US sugar shifted to Brazil's sugar supply. The high sugar - alcohol ratio was bearish for US sugar, and Brazil's new - season production was uncertain. Domestically, the market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. With good domestic sugar sales and reduced imports, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded, but its upside was limited. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Futures prices corrected, while spot prices were stable. Traders were stocking up for the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, and some areas had tight supplies. Cold - storage inventory was low, and demand was in the peak season. The futures market was expected to continue to rebound, and a bullish strategy was recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Futures prices rose, and market sentiment improved slightly. Global natural rubber supply was entering the growth period, and domestic tire demand declined. Inventories increased, and the external environment was unfavorable. It is recommended to wait and see for RU and BR, short - sell NR, and hold cross - variety arbitrage positions [6] Pulp - Futures prices declined slightly, and port inventories decreased. There were news of overseas pulp mill production cuts, but downstream demand was average. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated, and spot prices were stable. Imported timber prices fell due to weak demand. New Zealand's timber shipments were in the peak season, and inventory pressure was high. Futures prices were expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

| 11/11/2 | 国投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年03月27日 | | 黄金 | ななな | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属偏强震荡。本周美像在利雅得磋商虽在制定措施落实俄乌能源设施停火等方面达成一定共识，但 未形成联合声明。特朗普室布对进口汽车加征25%关税,4月2日对等关税政策仍存悬念。贵金属仍会围绕美 国经济前景、关税政策以及俄乌谈判等因素博弈,金价预计3000美元附近会反复拉锯,当前盈亏比不佳,空 仓建议保持观望。今日关注美国周度初请失业金人数和四季度GDP终值。 ★美联储穆萨莱姆:鉴于经济持续增长目前没必要急于降息,关税或导致持续通胀;古尔斯比;美债市场开 始预期通胀水平将更高,这将是一个"重大危险信号";卡什卡利:美联储应在政策不确定的情况下长期按 兵不动 ...

【铜】 周四沪铜城仓震荡,跌势暂时限制在MA10日均线。今日现铜81585元,上海贴水30元,广东升水缩至90元。高铜 价影响去阵速度,SMM社库周内增加900吨至33.45万吨。隔夜美伦价差已接近高盛测算的1700美元,关注投机盘 与委利盘动向,倾向此驱动边际转向。沪铜短线观调整迹象,但正处旺季回调幅度料有限,如8.05-8.15万间, 中下游按需点价。 【铝&氧化铝】 今日沪铝上行,现货维持小幅贴水。今日铝锭铝棒社库较周一下降2.5万吨和1.3万吨,去库速度熔快于往年, 市场对旺季消费有期待,关注随着阵存去化现货反馈能否回暖,成本大降后更高的利润需要更大的缺口预期。 短期沪铝背靠近一个月运行区间低点20500元震荡为主，继续测试21000元阻力。氧化铝运行产能在历史高位波 动,压产检修规模扩大但难改长期宽松趋势。国内外现货继续承压,澳洲最新成交跌至368美元。随着北方部分 氧化铝企业现金成本亏损,矿石继续松动前氧化铝跌势可能趋缓,但反弹空间相对有限,上方关注20日级和布 林线中轨位置阻力。 【锌】 锌价高位波动,下游逢高畏采,SMM锌社库较周一略增0.11万吨至13万吨。矿山利润仍高达6000元/吨,复产 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【铝】 2025年03月27日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价进一步走强,布伦特05含约涨1.13%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期去化334.1万桶, 汽油、中质馏分产品库存同样录得去阵,累阵趋势的摇摆对市场情绪构成支撑。近期油市交易主线 为OPEO+强化减产补偿对盈余压力的缓解,美国对伊朗、委内瑞拉制裁加码带来的供应紧缩预期, 原油价格有望延续近期上行走势。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属震荡。贵金属围绕美国经济前景、特朗普关税政策以及俄乌谈判进展等因素博弈,金价 预计3000美元附近会有反复拉锯,盈亏比不佳建议保持观望。今日关注美国周废初请失业金人数和 四季度GDP终值。 【铜】 隔夜内外铜价回撤涨幅延续调整,美伦价差扩至1600美元,特朗普表示数周内可对铜加征关税。美 伦价差已接近高盛测算的1700美元模型位置,关注投机盘与套利盘动向,倾向此驱动边际特向。沪 铜短线观调整迹象,但正处旺季回调幅度料有限,如8.05-8.15万间,中下游按需点价。 隔夜沪铝窄幅波动。近期铝市表观消费略强于预期,市场对旺季消费有期待,但现货反馈一般,铝 棒加工费持续低迷,成本大降后更 ...