Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and silver, providing insights on their supply, demand, price trends, and investment strategies [1]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Emotions**: The market has digested the supply loss of Grasberg copper mine, with overseas banks raising long - term copper price expectations. The US government shutdown and Sino - US trade issues add to market uncertainty [1]. - **Domestic Supply**: Imported copper concentrate TC is at $80. September domestic copper output decreased by 50,600 tons month - on - month, and is expected to drop by 38,500 tons in October. September copper imports reached 485,000 tons, and consumption is under pressure from high prices [1]. - **Overseas**: ICSC lowered the 2025 copper concentrate supply growth from 2.86% to 1.4% (supply increment from nearly 500,000 tons to 300,000 tons) and next year's growth from 2.55% to 2.3% (supply increment from 800,000 - ton level to 500,000 - ton level). 2025 demand growth is expected at 3.3%, and 2026 at 2.1% [1]. - **Trend**: The copper price is likely to enter a high - level oscillation state after reaching near - record positions last week [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Supply**: Domestic alumina operating capacity is at a historical high of 80 million tons, with a significant surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable at around 44 million tons [1]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of domestic aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 6.5% to 62.5%. September aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day, aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 57,000 tons to 649,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 139,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: The aluminum market is oscillating to test previous highs, and the upside space is cautiously viewed [1]. Zinc - **Spot and Futures**: LME inventory is less than 38,000 tons, with a high 0 - 3 months premium. Domestic smelters prefer domestic ore procurement, and import ore TC has rebounded [1]. - **Demand**: Affected by multiple factors, domestic demand is not strong, and social inventory has reached a five - year high of 163,100 tons [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1]. Lead - **Market**: The external market's rising lead price was reversed by policy changes and domestic factory resumptions. LME lead inventory is at a high level of 237,000 tons [1]. - **Supply**: Both primary and secondary lead production are expected to increase in October. The supply of lead concentrate is still tight [1]. - **Demand**: Battery consumption is good, but the sustainability of consumption is in doubt [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [1]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Spot and Supply**: There are premiums for different forms of nickel. Nickel and nickel - iron inventories have increased, and stainless - steel inventory has decreased [1]. - **Trend**: The nickel price is weakly operating, with a downward - moving center of gravity [1]. Tin - **Supply**: There is no new news on tin ore resupply, and domestic production is expected to increase in October [1]. - **Demand**: High tin prices affect downstream purchases, and the export of related products has slowed [1]. - **Trend**: Shanghai tin has significant two - way price movements. Short positions can be held near 290,000 yuan or sell put options with an execution price of 300,000 yuan for the 25LL contract [1]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures**: The lithium carbonate futures market is oscillating with light trading [1]. - **Spot**: The price is reported at 23,100 yuan, and the total output has growth potential [1]. - **Demand**: The demand for lithium iron phosphate materials is good, with expected growth in October [1]. - **Inventory**: The total market inventory has decreased, and downstream inventory is at a relatively high level [1]. - **Trend**: The lithium price is supported at a low level, but there is downward pressure [1]. Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Xinjiang enterprises plan to increase production in October, and southwest production areas may cut production in November [1]. - **Demand**: The production of polysilicon in October is less than expected, and the operating load of organic silicon enterprises remains stable [1]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory has increased by 200 tons to 545,000 tons [1]. - **Trend**: There is a high risk of inventory accumulation in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: The price has recovered and stabilized between 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply contraction is limited in October, and silicon wafer production cuts are frequent in Q4. Demand has decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has increased by 1.4 million tons to 24 million tons [1]. - **Trend**: The effectiveness of the 40,000 - yuan/ton support level is being tested, and industry meeting news should be followed [1]. Silver - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the silver 2512 contract and raise the target price to 10,500 - 12,000, with a stop - loss at 9,100 [1].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics. It is for internal company use only and does not constitute personal investment advice [1]. Market Data Commodities - Copper closed at 85,910.00 with a weekly increase of 3.37%. - Coking coal closed at 1,161.00 with a 3.11% weekly increase. - Gold closed at 901.56 with a 3.11% weekly increase. - Palm oil closed at 9,438.00 with a 2.28% weekly increase. - Iron ore closed at 795.00 with a 1.86% weekly increase. - Silver closed at 11,082.00 with a 1.50% weekly increase. - Aluminum closed at 20,980.00 with a 1.45% weekly increase. - Rebar closed at 3,103.00 with a 1.01% weekly increase. - Soybean meal closed at 2,922.00 with a -0.20% weekly change. - Glass closed at 1,207.00 with a -0.25% weekly change. - Corn closed at 2,125.00 with a -0.84% weekly change. - Methanol closed at 2,307.00 with a -0.90% weekly change. - PTA closed at 4,534.00 with a -1.31% weekly change. - PVC closed at 4,735.00 with a -2.15% weekly change. - Ethylene glycol closed at 4,100.00 with a -2.54% weekly change. - Crude oil closed at 461.90 with a -3.71% weekly change. - Polysilicon closed at 48,965.00 with a -4.66% weekly change. - Live pigs closed at 11,320.00 with a -8.38% weekly change [2]. A-shares - CSI 500 closed at 7,398.22 with a -0.19% weekly change. - SSE 50 closed at 2,974.85 with a -0.47% weekly change. - CSI 300 closed at 4,616.83 with a -0.51% weekly change [2]. Overseas Stocks - Nikkei 225 closed at 48,088.80 with a 7.02% weekly increase. - FTSE 100 closed at 9,427.47 with a 0.82% weekly increase. - France CAC40 closed at 7,918.00 with a 0.28% weekly increase. - Nasdaq Index closed at 22,204.43 with a -2.01% weekly change. - S&P 500 closed at 6,552.51 with a -2.03% weekly change. - Hang Seng Index closed at 26,290.32 with a -2.10% weekly change [2]. Bonds - China's 2-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.48 with a -2.36bp weekly change. - China's 10-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.84 with a -3.67bp weekly change. - China's 5-year treasury bond yield closed at 1.60 with a -4.14bp weekly change [2]. Foreign Exchange - US Dollar Index closed at 98.82 with a 1.02% weekly increase. - US Dollar central parity rate closed at 7.10 with a -0.01% weekly change. - Euro to US Dollar closed at 1.16 with a -0.95% weekly change [2]. Commodity Views Macro-financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 Index increased by 470 million weekly; daily sales revenue of national consumption-related industries increased by 4.5% year-on-year; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is to be held this month, raising expectations of domestic favorable policies; China has an advantage in negotiation chips and space in the Sino-US trade friction; A-share daily average turnover reached 2.6034 trillion yuan, up 415.4 billion yuan from last week. - Bearish logics: Trump announced countermeasures against China, threatening to impose a 100% tariff; US stocks tumbled due to the renewed tension in Sino-US relations; the US government shutdown increased market volatility; A-shares reached a ten-year high, with a risk of correction at high valuations; the escalation of Sino-US friction affected market risk appetite [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 3 are bullish and 4 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: The central bank conducted large-scale reverse repurchase operations to maintain a loose money supply; overseas economic data was weak, strengthening expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle; the escalation of Sino-US trade friction boosted market risk aversion; bond market valuations approached reasonable levels after adjustment. - Bearish logics: As it approaches mid-to-late October, market expectations for policy support are high; market risk appetite remains high, which may divert funds from the bond market; the new public fund fee regulations have not been implemented [4]. Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy view: Among 9 institutions surveyed, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: OPEC's continued production increase was less than previously rumored; US shale oil production faced bottlenecks; Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries disrupted Russian oil exports; Indian demand rebounded rapidly after the end of the rainy season and the prosperity of the manufacturing industry. - Bearish logics: OPEC+ oil-producing countries decided to maintain production increases in November; the US threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China; the US federal government shutdown increased systemic risks; Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement, reducing geopolitical premiums; US crude oil inventories and production increases exceeded expectations; European and American refineries entered the autumn maintenance season [5]. Agricultural Products Sector Soybean Oil - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: The escalation of Sino-US trade friction boosted market sentiment for domestic soybean varieties; the fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for soybean oil; soybean oil inventory estimates were lowered; workers at Argentine soybean crushing plants planned a strike over salary issues. - Bearish logics: Soybean imports are expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and factory operating rates are expected to remain high; continuous rainfall in Brazil and good weather prospects; sufficient domestic soybean oil supply; US soybean prices fell due to Sino-US trade friction; the Brazilian Ministry of Mines and Energy said it might not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio before March next year [5]. Non-ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: Overseas copper mine accidents led to a tightened global copper supply outlook; poor ADP employment data in September increased expectations of further Fed easing; raw material shortages and falling by-product profits may dampen smelters' production willingness; low domestic copper inventories provided strong support for copper prices. - Bearish logics: The escalation of Sino-US trade tensions dampened market risk appetite; weakening macro sentiment may lead to short-term weakness in copper prices; downstream buyers were cautious due to high copper prices; downstream enterprises had sufficient pre-holiday inventories, partially overdraining short-term demand [6]. Chemical Sector Methanol - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 2 are bearish and 5 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: There are expectations of supply disruptions for imports from Iranian-sanctioned vessels; attention is paid to the implementation of Iran's winter gas restrictions; the relatively good inventory pattern in the inland region provides some support for prices. - Bearish logics: Trade risks have increased, and macro sentiment may suppress methanol valuations; port inventory pressure remains high during the import peak; domestic methanol operating rates remain at a relatively high level, with continuous supply pressure; traditional downstream demand has entered the off-season, and operating rates have declined [6]. Precious Metals Gold - Strategy view: Among 7 institutions surveyed, 3 are bullish and 4 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: The US government shutdown increased market risk aversion; the Fed may face continued concerns about its independence; rising uncertainty in tariff policies boosted the safe-haven property of gold; global central banks continued to increase their gold holdings, providing long-term allocation support. - Bearish logics: The short-term easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation led to profit-taking in safe-haven assets; there are differences within the Fed regarding the interest rate cut path, bringing uncertainty; the pressure for price correction at high levels increased, and short-term volatility may intensify; rising gold prices suppressed physical gold demand [7]. Black Sector Iron Ore - Strategy view: Among 8 institutions surveyed, 3 are bearish and 5 expect sideways movement. - Bullish logics: An important meeting will be held in China in October, increasing macro favorable expectations; pig iron production remains at a high level; terminal demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season. - Bearish logics: Iron ore inventories increased seasonally; the escalation of Sino-US competition reduced market risk appetite at home and abroad; the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports reached 26.09 million tons, an increase of 2.48 million tons from the previous week; downstream demand remained weak year-on-year; the contraction of steel mill profits increased the pressure for future production cuts [7].

Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but with limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with a certain bullish signal [1] Core Views - Gold and silver prices rose significantly to new highs today and then adjusted sharply, with large intraday fluctuations. The medium - and long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and the upward trend will continue. However, the short - term rise is too fast, both gold and silver show overbought signals, the intraday fluctuations are intensifying, and the risk of correction is high. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities after the correction [1] Other Key Points - Philadelphia Fed President Paulson, who rarely voices his views, hinted at supporting two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year [2] - Leaders of Egypt, the US, Qatar, and Turkey signed the Comprehensive Document of the Gaza Cease - fire Agreement [2] - On October 14, the US implemented the final measures of the 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors. China strongly opposes this and includes 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. in the counter - sanction list [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, providing insights on their supply - demand, price trends, and investment strategies based on current market conditions such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal factors [2][3][4] - It also offers views on financial products like stock indices and treasury bonds, considering macro - economic factors and policy directions [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices partially recovered on Monday. Fourth - quarter Brent crude average price is expected to drop from $67/barrel in Q3 to $62/barrel. Short - term, end - of - month APAC meeting and Sino - US talks may affect risk sentiment, and the previously recommended strategy can be temporarily closed [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is expected to follow crude oil's oscillation. High - sulfur fuel oil gets short - term support but faces medium - term pressure, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [20] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+增产背景下海外伴生气供应压力加剧，沙特10月CP价格下调超出市场预期，LPG缺乏利好支撑而承压 [22] - **Urea**: Supply remains high, demand is weak, and the domestic supply - demand pattern is loose. The market is likely to continue its weak trend [23] - **Methanol**: The Iran sanctions ship event may reduce imports. Coastal MTO device operation is stable, and port inventory accumulation is less than expected [24] - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: Cost support weakens, downstream demand is scattered, and inventory needs to be digested. Prices are under pressure [27] - **PVC &烧碱**: Trade friction may affect PVC exports. PVC supply is high, and it may have a weak - oscillating trend. Caustic soda has a marginal improvement, and the decline of futures prices is expected to be limited [28] - **PX & PTA**: PX price decline drives the polyester industry chain down. Supply is under pressure, and downstream demand is expected to weaken in the mid - to - long term [29] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production increases, ports accumulate inventory, but the price is at the bottom of the range. Pay attention to Sino - US trade relations [30] - **Short Fibre & Bottle Chip**: Short - fibre prices decline due to raw material and trade friction. Bottle - chip production increases inventory, and demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Glass**: It is in a weak state. After the holiday, inventory accumulates, and supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to wait for low - buying opportunities near the cost [32] - **20 - Number Rubber & Natural Rubber & Butadiene Rubber**: Demand recovers after the holiday, supply pressure is high, and inventory decreases. It is advisable to wait and see [33] - **纯碱**: Supply is high, demand increase is limited, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. It is advisable to short at high - rebound levels [34] - **大豆 &豆粕**: Domestic soybean supply in Q4 is sufficient, but it may be tight in Q1 next year. Wait and see for now, and be cautiously bullish in the long term [35] - **豆油 &棕榈油**: US soybean sales are slow. The supply of South American soybeans and existing domestic inventory can buffer. Palm oil inventory is high. Wait for price bottom - seeking and then go long [36] - **菜粕 &菜油**: Canadian rapeseed harvest nears completion, with good yield. Pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations. Consider short - selling rapeseed - related products in cross - product strategies [37] - **豆一**: Domestic soybeans are rebounding, and imports from the US are affected. Supply may be tight in Q1 next year. Pay attention to policy guidance [38] - **玉米**: Corn futures decline. New grain supply increases, and prices are under pressure. Hold short positions and wait for policy support [39] - **生猪**: Futures prices are under pressure, and the spot price is at the bottom. Pay attention to secondary fattening and the industry's capacity reduction cycle [40] - **鸡蛋**: Near - month contracts are strong, and far - month contracts are weak. Accelerate the elimination of old chickens. Short near - month contracts and go long on far - month contracts [41] - **棉花**: US cotton demand is weak, and domestic cotton supply may increase significantly. Demand is weak. Temporarily wait and see [42] - **白糖**: International sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new - season output. Pay attention to weather and sugarcane growth [43] - **苹果**: Futures prices are high - oscillating. Supply change is small, and cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Adopt a short - selling strategy [44] - **木材**: Prices are in a correction. Supply is low, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is small. Wait and see [45] - **纸浆**: Futures prices rise. Port inventory is high, and demand is average. Pay attention to inventory changes and wait and see [46] - **Stock Indices**: A - share market had a V - shaped recovery. Pay attention to Sino - US economic and trade relations and domestic policies. Increase allocation to the technology - growth sector in the medium term [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures prices rise. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy. The yield curve steepening may end, and long - term bonds are more likely to recover [48]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ★★★ [1] - Doupo: ★★★ [1] - Douyou: ★★★ [1] - Biaowangyou: ★★★ [1] - Caipo: ★★★ [1] - Caiyou: ★★★ [1] - Yumi: ★☆☆ [1] - Shengzhu: ★☆☆ [1] - Jidan: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be tight in Q1 next year, but the risk of supply gap can be easily mitigated. The supply in Q2 will depend on the South American new crop. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [2][3][4] - In the context of the growing global biodiesel trend and the demand risk of US soybeans, South American soybeans continue to expand. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils and fats will still be resilient [6] - The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term. Investors can pay attention to the cross-competitor strategy with rapeseed as the short position. The short-term trend of domestic rapeseed is mainly volatile [7] - The price of corn futures continues to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom [8] - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Domestic soybeans are in a rebound trend, and the price is oscillating strongly. The purchase of domestic soybeans by enterprises is active, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. China's soybean supply chain procurement source has shifted to South America, and the price of US soybeans is expected to be under pressure from the demand side [2] Soybeans & Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures are oscillating narrowly. The domestic soybean arrival volume is sufficient, and the domestic soybean production is expected to reach 2.1 million tons this year. The overall supply in Q4 is not a big problem, but it may be tight in Q1 next year if the Sino-US trade relationship deteriorates [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The sales progress of US new-season soybeans is slow. The supply of South American old-season soybeans and China's existing large inventory can buffer. The domestic beans will gradually reduce inventory, which may make the soybean supply tight in Q1 next year. The short-term inventory of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the overall demand has decreased more. The Indonesian market is more resilient. It is expected that oils and fats will be more resilient, and oils and fats are stronger than meals [4][6] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures are fluctuating in a narrow range. The market is still waiting to see the trend of Sino-US economic and trade relations. The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is coming to an end, and the yield is better than expected. The export is still a problem, which puts pressure on the supply and demand prospects of Canadian rapeseed. The domestic rapeseed inventory and operating rate are still at a low level. The demand for rapeseed is being suppressed by the "premium" compared with competitors. The supply anxiety of rapeseed has been alleviated in the short term [7] Corn - The corn futures continue to decline. The new corn production is expected to increase, and the current price is waiting for the phased policy bottom. The impact of Trump's remarks is small. The new corn in the Northeast is on the market in large quantities, and the price has dropped [8] Hogs - The hog futures continue to increase positions and suppress prices. The spot price has dropped to the bottom range. The scale enterprise's slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase in October. The industry will enter a capacity reduction cycle, which will support the contracts in the second half of next year [9] Eggs - The egg futures continue to increase positions. The near-month contracts are relatively strong, and the far-month contracts are under pressure. The current spot price is close to the lowest level in the first half of the year. The industry needs to accelerate the elimination of old chickens to reduce production capacity [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish inclination with poor market operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency and low market maneuverability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, representing a bearish bias and weak market operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, meaning a bearish trend and limited market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil inventory has increased by 4.3% since the second half of the year, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year. The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline. In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas [3] - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected. The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations. The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, the global oil inventory has increased by 4.3%, with crude oil inventory rising by 3.9% (mainly in transit and floating storage) and refined oil inventory increasing by 5.1%. The inventory accumulation rate has accelerated compared to the first half of the year [2] - In the fourth quarter, the bearish pressure from OPEC+ production increase and seasonal weakening of oil demand continues. New risk aversion sentiment has emerged due to the US government shutdown and the resurgence of the Sino-US trade war. Supply may be tightened temporarily due to the attacks on Russian energy facilities and the risk of sanctions on Russia and Iran. The ceasefire agreement in Gaza is a new attempt at global geopolitical reconciliation [2] - The average price of Brent crude oil is expected to drop from $67 per barrel in the third quarter to $62 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The medium-term strategy is to sell at high prices. The short-term strategy of combining crude oil short positions with out-of-the-money call options can be temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The threat of tariff hikes by Trump over the weekend led to a decline in the prices of risk assets including crude oil. Fuel oil prices followed the decline due to factors such as the weakening of geopolitical risk premium and OPEC+ production increase [3] - In the short term, high-sulfur fuel oil is supported by the damaged production capacity of Russian refineries, while low-sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation due to abundant overseas supply (including the unstable supply from the RFCC unit of Nigeria's Dangote refinery) and loose domestic quotas [3] Asphalt - The national asphalt production plan for October increased by 350,000 tons year-on-year and decreased slightly by 4,000 tons month-on-month. The supply pressure is weaker than expected [3] - In late September, the shipment volume of 54 national asphalt sample enterprises returned to a year-on-year growth of 8%. The latest data shows that the factory inventory has increased month-on-month, the social inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the overall inventory level has slightly increased month-on-month [3] - The asphalt supply and demand remain in a tight balance. The crack spread has rebounded significantly compared to before the holiday [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Under the background of OPEC+ production increase, the supply pressure of overseas associated gas has intensified. The reduction of Saudi CP price in October exceeded market expectations [3] - The market sentiment is cautious, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand. The actual demand on the combustion end has not significantly increased [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

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Tabl e_Title 2025 年 10 月 13 日 大类资产运行周报（20251006-20251010） 中美贸易摩擦预期再起 风险资产回落 全球大类资产表现情况：美元指数上涨 股债商品回落 10 月 6 日—10 月 10 日当周，美国总统特朗普发出关于关税的威胁发言，市场对贸易摩擦预期 升温。美元指数周度收涨。股债商品皆出现不同幅度回落。综合来看，以美元 计价，债＞商品＞股。 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -2.30% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.51% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.73% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.33% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 1.13% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn -2.20% | | | 021-68767839 | ...

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