Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a short - term multi/empty trend in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1] - Silver: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for an upward trend but poor operability on the market [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, gold and silver continued to be strong with large intraday fluctuations. The US government shutdown and tariff frictions increased market uncertainty, and the approaching end of the Fed's balance - sheet reduction strengthened the expectation of monetary easing. The medium - to - long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, but in the short term, the rising speed of gold and silver is too fast, with obvious overbought signs on the disk and high volatility risks, so it is advisable to wait and see [1] - Fed Governor Milan called for an accelerated pace of interest - rate cuts, but the (single) rate - cut amplitude should not exceed 50BP, and he said that two more rate cuts this year are realistic; apart from gold, there is no risk premium in the market [1] Other Summaries US Economic Situation - The Federal Reserve said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, and the employment level has generally remained stable. Overall consumer spending has declined slightly, while prices continue to rise, and several Fed districts reported an accelerated increase in input costs. The cost increase caused by tariffs has been reported in many districts, but the degree of transmission of these higher costs to final prices varies [2] International Events - The Trump administration authorized the CIA to conduct secret operations in Venezuela, and Trump confirmed this news. Trump threatened that if Hamas does not abide by the cease - fire agreement, Israel will resume operations at his order [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a ☆☆☆ rating to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, silicon manganese, and silicon iron, indicating a relatively balanced short-term trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [1]. - It assigns a ★☆☆ rating to coke and coking coal, indicating a bullish or bearish bias, with a driving force for price increase or decrease, but poor operability on the market [1]. Core Views - The demand expectation for steel remains weak, and the market stabilizes slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of China-US game and the promotion of domestic demand stimulus policies [2]. - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is necessary to focus on the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the upcoming important meetings [3]. - The support near the previous low of coke and coking coal is relatively solid, and attention should be paid to the impact of US tariff increases [4][6]. - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures market rebounded slightly in a volatile manner. This week, the apparent demand for rebar increased significantly month-on-month but remained weak year-on-year. Production continued to decline, and inventory decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils also increased, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Iron ore production remained high, but downstream demand was insufficient. As steel mill profits declined, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain continued to ferment. From the perspective of downstream industries, the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability, real estate investment declined significantly, infrastructure investment growth slowed down, and overall domestic demand remained weak. Steel exports remained high in September. The demand expectation remained weak, and the market stabilized slightly after continuous adjustments but may still fluctuate in the short term [2]. Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures market showed a weak oscillation. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume increased, and there was no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel increased significantly after the holiday, and iron ore production remained high with resilience. Steel mills had a certain demand for phased replenishment, but as profits shrank and demand remained relatively low, the pressure for future production cuts gradually increased. External trade frictions continued, the negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain strengthened, and market sentiment weakened. It still needs subsequent policy support. It is expected that iron ore will mainly oscillate at a high level [3]. Coke - The coke price oscillated upward during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. Profit levels were average, daily production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. After pre-holiday replenishment, downstream users are currently consuming inventory, and traders' purchasing willingness is average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coke futures market is slightly at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated upward during the day. The production of coking coal mines continued to increase slightly, the spot auction volume decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. Terminal inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased significantly month-on-month, and production-end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the high level of downstream iron ore production supports raw materials. The support near the previous low is relatively solid. The coking coal futures market is slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for the safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price mainly oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing news of a large steel mill in the north. Currently, the inquiry price is 5,750 yuan/ton. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, but production remained at a high level. Silicon manganese inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand remained good. The quoted price of manganese ore shipments increased slightly month-on-month, and the spot ore was boosted by the market. Manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and the contradiction was not prominent. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [7]. Silicon Iron - The silicon iron price mainly oscillated during the day. On the demand side, iron ore production remains high. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased slightly month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall, demand was okay. Silicon iron supply remained at a high level, and on-balance sheet inventory continued to decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of external trade frictions [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ [1] - PX: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with different products having varying supply - demand relationships and price trends. The market is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, trade frictions, and seasonal demand changes [2][3][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuate below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakens again after a short - term recovery, and the market trading atmosphere is average [2] - PE supply pressure increases, and terminal demand is limited. PP has more maintenance devices, but supply remains loose, and demand support is insufficient [2] Polyester - PX price rebounds, driving downstream products up. PTA supply is expected to increase, and overall PTA supply - demand is expected to be weak. In the short - term, prices may stabilize, but in the medium - term, they may continue to be weak [3] - Ethylene glycol domestic operation declines slightly, and the port continues to accumulate inventory. The impact of Sino - US trade on hexanediol is positive [3] - Short fiber follows the raw material to rebound. Spot is firm, but there is a risk of demand weakening in the future [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebound, but the market is affected by high imports and expected demand decline. Styrene supply is sufficient, and terminal demand support is worrying [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply rhythm is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to port inventory changes. Urea supply is loose, and the market is likely to continue to be weak [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC may fluctuate weakly due to high supply pressure and export challenges. Caustic soda shows a marginal improvement trend, and the decline of futures price is expected to be limited [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continues to accumulate inventory, and the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged. Glass may rise due to supply - side news despite weak current reality [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: None - **Hold (★★☆)**: None - **Watch (★☆☆)**: Corn, Hog, Egg - **Sell (White Star)**: Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, policies, and trade relations. Overall, the market is complex and volatile, and investors need to pay close attention to policy and fundamental changes [2][3][4] Summary by Product Soybean - Domestic soybeans rose and then fell, with all 44,835 tons of state reserve auctions today going unsold at a reserve price of 3,900 yuan/ton, and the demand for transactions has deteriorated. The market is still worried about the export demand of US soybeans, and China has not yet purchased the new US soybean crop. US soybean prices are expected to be pressured by the demand side [2] Soybean Meal - The main contract of Dalian soybean meal, M2601, slightly increased positions and declined. Currently, the arrival volume of domestic soybeans is large, and inventories are sufficient. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is generally not a problem. If Sino-US trade relations continue to deteriorate and the time is prolonged, the overall supply in the first quarter of next year may tighten. The soybean meal market is currently affected by domestic and foreign policies and is fluctuating weakly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Weak global crude oil prices and uncertainties in Sino-US trade are pressuring risk assets, and there is a need to be cautious about the potential drag on vegetable oils. The near-term demand for palm oil in the international market is weak, but the Indonesian market gives an expectation of a further increase in the biodiesel blending ratio in the long term. The palm oil market has resilience as it enters the production reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. Domestic soybean oil is in a state of high inventory due to supply exceeding demand. In the context of the continued growth of the global biodiesel trend and the demand risks faced by US soybeans, it is expected that oils will be more resilient, and oils will be stronger than meals. In the medium and long term, it is expected that oils will still have resilience, and investors should wait for the price to find a bottom and then go long at low prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market fluctuated little today. Overall, the external oilseed market lacks guidance from USDA data, and there are also risks of uncertain economic and trade relations at the macro level. The Sino-Canadian agricultural product trade relationship is difficult to ease before Canada changes its tariff policy. An oil company will hold a special two-way bidding and trading session for rapeseed oil purchases and sales on October 17, involving 18,230 tons of rapeseed oil. The domestic rapeseed market is still in a state of inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Overall, the driving force for a single side is not significant, and it is expected that the rapeseed futures price will fluctuate in the short term [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures continued to rebound from the bottom today. The Huanghuaihai corn producing area is continuing to rush to harvest and dry the corn. The price of corn in Northeast China has declined, but the range is narrowing. The volume of corn arriving at Shandong's spot market has decreased to less than 1,000 tons, and the price is weakly stable. The opening price of corn in Northeast China has declined from a high level, but some state reserve depots in Heilongjiang have started to purchase at around 2,000 yuan/ton for 14% moisture corn, which currently has little impact on the market. The volume of new corn coming onto the market in Northeast China will continue to increase in the next two weeks. Currently, corn is still weak at the bottom, but the phased bottom is getting closer [7] Hog - Except for the November contract, other hog futures contracts hit new lows, with a total increase in positions of 15,000 lots. The spot price rebounded and exceeded 11 yuan/kg, mainly affected by factors such as second-round fattening, reluctance to sell, and increased slaughter volume. The current average spot price is in the range of 10 - 11 yuan/kg, which is at the bottom of the historical hog cycle. However, from a fundamental perspective, there are no obvious bullish factors, and the monthly output of large-scale enterprises is expected to continue to increase in October. Currently, the profits of the entire industry chain have turned negative, and the inventory of breeding sows decreased in September. In the medium term, this will support the contracts for the second half of next year [8] Egg - The spot price of eggs generally increased, with a relatively large increase in some areas. The futures generally closed down, with a total increase in positions of 20,000 lots, and the contracts for February, March, and April next year hit new lows. The short-term spot sales are relatively fast due to low prices, resulting in a short-term rebound. The egg price is at the cash flow balance or loss state, and the culling of old hens is still slow. There is a risk of further decline in the egg price in the medium term [9]

Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: Styrene [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Plastics [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Propylene, Polypropylene, PVC, Bottle Chip [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with supply - demand imbalances and various influencing factors such as geopolitical events, trade conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Different chemical products have different trends, with some facing downward pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while others may have short - term support or upward trends due to factors like reduced production or increased demand [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakened again as downstream factories were reluctant to chase price increases. The trading atmosphere was average [2]. - PE supply pressure increased, and terminal demand was limited. PP had more maintenance devices, but supply remained abundant, and demand support was insufficient [2]. Polyester - PX price rebounded, driving up downstream products. PX supply had a short - term contraction, while PTA supply was expected to increase. Overall, PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak. PX might improve in the short term, but both PX and PTA were expected to be weak in the medium term [3]. - EG domestic operation declined slightly, and ports continued to accumulate inventory. Its price was at the bottom of the range. The impact of Sino - US trade tensions on hexanediol was positive [3]. - Short fiber followed the raw material rebound. New capacity was limited, and demand improved. However, there was an expectation of demand decline as the weather turned cold, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded, but imports and weak demand expectations dragged down the market. - Styrene supply was sufficient, and new device plans might increase pressure. Terminal demand was worried about being insufficient due to trade conflicts [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply and high - inventory logic were affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to port inventory and trade disputes [6]. - Urea was in a weak situation with high supply and weak demand. Although there was an expectation of demand increase, overall support was insufficient [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed an oscillating trend. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Exports were under pressure due to trade conflicts, and it might oscillate weakly [7]. - Caustic soda was oscillating strongly. Inventory decreased, and demand improved. The decline of futures price was expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory. Supply was high, and demand increase was limited. The oversupply pattern remained, and it was advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass futures rose at the end due to news. Inventory was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. Futures price might rise due to supply - side news [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, suggesting to wait and see [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★, indicating a clearer bullish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The oil market is under pressure due to the unresolved Sino - US trade game and the expected increase in market looseness in the fourth quarter. However, geopolitical factors may bring risk premiums [1]. - The fuel oil market fluctuates with crude oil due to geopolitical news. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental situation [1]. - The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025, and the support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4 [2]. - The LPG main contract has risen, with changes in Saudi CP forecasts, US propane exports, and inventory levels. The demand in the traditional peak season is expected to increase but has not significantly improved yet [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fluctuated, and the SC11 contract rose 0.02%. The Sino - US trade game and the expected market looseness in the fourth quarter put pressure on the oil market. Last week, US API crude oil inventories increased by 7.36 million barrels more than expected. The medium - term bearish view on crude oil remains unchanged, but geopolitical factors may increase risk premiums [1]. Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Multiple geopolitical news has affected the market, causing fuel oil to fluctuate with crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support from European port strikes and Russian refinery attacks, but faces medium - term pressure due to the end of the Middle East power - generation and refining peak season and potential suppression of shipping fuel demand. Strategies can focus on shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread after geopolitical situations become clear. Low - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, with a weak fundamental situation [1]. Asphalt - The latest data shows that factory and social inventories have decreased compared to the beginning of the week, and commercial inventories have decreased by 40,000 tons compared to last week. The asphalt supply - demand is in a tight - balance pattern, with a small inventory build - up expected by the end of 2025. The support from fundamentals is expected to weaken in the second half of Q4. The cost increase has driven the BU futures price up, but the spot price is still weak, and the basis has weakened [2]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The LPG main contract rose about 3% today. Saudi's latest November CP forecast has increased the propane and butane prices. US propane exports have decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased. In the traditional peak season, the demand for combustion is expected to increase, but the actual demand has not significantly improved. The futures price has gradually recovered from the low level [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined [1] - Polysilicon: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias) [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a daily analysis of various non - ferrous metals, including their price trends, supply - demand fundamentals, and market sentiment, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts for each metal [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, SHFE copper fluctuated around 85,000 yuan. SMM spot copper was reported at 85,175 yuan, with a premium of 60 yuan in Shanghai. Social inventory increased by 5,500 tons to 177,500 tons this week [2] - The US government shutdown led to a lack of physical indicators. The Fed's Beige Book showed weakening consumer spending and labor force, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - SHFE aluminum rebounded today, with spot aluminum in East China at par. In the off - season, the apparent consumption of aluminum was basically flat year - on - year. Aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories decreased by 23,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. Since the National Day, inventory performance has been neutral. Macro sentiment is volatile, and SHFE aluminum will test the previous high resistance in the short term [3] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of SHFE aluminum. The Baotai spot price is 20,600 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increases enterprise costs. However, the industry inventory is at a high level, and the SHFE warehouse receipts reach 43,000 tons. Whether the price difference with SHFE aluminum can continue to narrow remains to be seen [3] - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and industry inventory continues to rise. There is an obvious supply surplus, and the spot index in various regions continues to decline at a rate of about 10 yuan per day. The average cost in Shanxi and Henan in September was around 3,000 yuan. The current index price is not enough to trigger cash - loss production cuts in Shanxi and Henan but is approaching it. Alumina is mainly in a weak operation [3] Zinc - Although the spot export window has briefly opened, there has been no substantial large - scale export of zinc ingots. LME zinc inventory is at a low level of 38,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 month premium is at a high level of $139.83/ton. Overseas supply is tight, but terminal consumption has not improved significantly, and downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is insufficient. LME zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - Overseas smelter profits have recovered, and overseas zinc ingot supply may increase in the fourth quarter. The hidden inventory cannot be verified for the time being. Focus on tracking changes in LME zinc inventory. Some smelters in Gansu and Guangxi in China plan to conduct maintenance, and the room for further expansion of the domestic - foreign price difference is limited. The fundamentals are weak at home and strong abroad, and the export window is about to open. SHFE zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level, LME zinc will fluctuate at a high level, and the SHFE - LME ratio will fluctuate widely around the opening of the export window [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel is in a weak operation, and market trading is light. After the interest rate cut, the tendency of long - position holders to take profits is prominent. Sino - US frictions have increased uncertainty, and the macro - environment is gradually moving towards lower risk appetite [7] - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. During the traditional peak consumption season, downstream demand recovery is limited, market transactions are light, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The price of high - nickel ferro - nickel is 953 yuan per nickel point. Pure nickel inventory has increased by nearly 3,000 tons to 43,700 tons, nickel - iron inventory has increased by 600 tons to 29,200 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 3,400 tons to 909,000 tons. SHFE nickel's bullish factors are exhausted, and nickel prices are in a weak operation with a downward - biased center [7] Tin - SHFE tin fluctuated and closed up at the 280,000 - yuan level, and spot tin was reported at 281,200 yuan. The market has digested the Indonesian theme, and Indonesia's tin ingot exports rebounded to 484 tons in September. Hold short positions at high levels [8] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded, and market trading was light. Sino - US frictions have a short - term impact on market risk appetite. The overall inventory level of lithium carbonate is still high, and there may be a callback risk in the short term. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 134,800 tons. Smelter inventory increased by 1,250 tons to 35,000 tons, downstream inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 40,000 tons. Technically, lithium carbonate is in a weak operation, waiting for clarity [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher and did not follow the strong linkage of coking coal. The spot price continued to be under pressure, and the price of the East China 553 specification decreased by 50 yuan/ton. The release of the复产 capacity in Xinjiang in September and the production increase of large enterprises have increased the risk of inventory accumulation. Large - scale production cuts are expected to start in the southwest at the end of October, and the cost side has strong support. The futures market is expected to remain volatile in the short term [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to rise, mainly driven by the expectation of photovoltaic capacity control policies. The fundamentals do not provide effective support for the time being, and the spot price remains stable. The output in October may continue to grow beyond expectations, and the risk of inventory accumulation under high inventory has increased. After the market, there were rumors about recent capacity policies, which still need to be clarified. The market may have a callback risk due to this, and it is recommended to strictly control positions [11]

| Milli | 国控期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月16日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜金银延续强势,日内维持较大波动。美国政府停摆与关税摩擦加剧市场不确定性,美联储缩表进入尾声 强化货币宽松预期。贵金属中长期上行逻辑稳固,但短期金银涨速过快，盘面超买迹象明显,波动风险较 大，观望为主。 ★美联储理事米兰呼吁加快降息步伐,但（单次）降息幅度无需超过50BP，其称今年再降息两次是观实的; 除了黄金，看不到市场中已包含风险溢价。 ★美国联邦储备委员会表示，近几周美国经济活动变化不大，就业水平总体保持稳定。根据美联储周三发布 的对各联储辖区商业联络人所作调查的褐皮书报告，整体消费者支出小幅回落。与此同时，价格继续上涨， 几个联储辖区报告投入成本上升速度加快。美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish tendency with limited trading operability [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bearish outlook and poor trading operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bearish view and low trading operability [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish trend and limited trading opportunities [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short-term trend and poor trading operability, advising to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall energy market is under pressure, with crude oil having a mid-term bearish trend, and other energy products also facing various supply and demand challenges and price pressures [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices declined further, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.79% intraday. Uncertainty in Sino-US trade and increased expected supply-demand surplus are pressuring the oil market. The mid-term bearish view remains unchanged, and short-term attention should be paid to the impact of Sino-US talks during the APAC meeting at the end of the month [2] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market is following the decline of crude oil. High-sulfur fuel oil is relatively stable in the short term but faces multiple pressures in the medium term. Strategies include shorting high-sulfur cracking spreads and widening high-low sulfur spreads after geopolitical tensions ease. Low-sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by abundant overseas supply and loose domestic quotas, and attention should be paid to the impact of increased port fees on trade and demand [2] Asphalt - The asphalt supply-demand remains in a tight balance. It follows the decline of crude oil but with limited跌幅, and the cracking spread rebounds. There is an expectation of slight inventory accumulation by the end of 2025, and the fundamental support is expected to weaken in the later Q4, with continued pressure from the cost side [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - LPG is resistant to decline at a low level. The US propane export volume has decreased, and the arrival volume is low. Refinery inventories have slightly increased, while port inventories have declined. There is increased supply pressure from overseas associated gas, and downstream procurement is mainly for刚需. The demand in the combustion end is expected to increase in the traditional peak season, but the actual demand has not significantly improved [3]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for the energy and metals markets is influenced by factors such as international trade tensions, supply - demand dynamics, and geopolitical events. For example,中美 trade frictions and the US government shutdown have added uncertainties to the markets [2][3]. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: Mid - term outlook is bearish. Supply surplus expectations and inventory increases are pressuring the market. Short - term, attention should be on the impact of China - US talks during the APAC meeting on risk sentiment [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver have a solid long - term upward trend but are overbought in the short - term with high volatility risks, so it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Implement a strategy of selling call options with a strike price of 90,000 yuan and buying put options with a strike price of 84,000 yuan [4]. - **Aluminum**: Short - term, it will likely trade in a range, and caution is needed regarding the upside potential [5]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weak, and stainless steel has a weak fundamental outlook. The market is influenced by Sino - US frictions, and inventory changes are also a factor [8]. - **Tin**: Hold existing short positions and sold call options [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a short - term risk of correction due to high inventory levels and Sino - US frictions [10]. - **Polysilicon**: Although the futures price has rebounded due to policy expectations, the fundamental situation is not favorable, and the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price may remain stable, considering supply changes and cost support [12]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The market is under short - term pressure due to weak demand, high production, and cost decline. Attention should be paid to Sino - US relations and domestic demand - stimulating policies [12]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly at high levels, affected by supply - demand changes, trade frictions, and port fee policies [13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Prices are oscillating. The market is supported by high iron - water production, and attention should be paid to US tariff policies [14][15]. - **Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron**: Prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. Demand is supported by high iron - water production, and attention should be paid to external trade frictions [16][17]. - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The October contract is expected to decline, while the December and February contracts may have limited short - term downside due to peak - season expectations. Attention should be paid to shipping companies' capacity control in November [18]. - **Fuel - Related Products** - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but faces medium - term pressure. Consider shorting high - sulfur cracking spreads and expanding the high - low sulfur spread when the geopolitical situation eases. Low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure from abundant supply [19]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but it will face pressure in the later part of Q4 due to expected inventory increase and crude oil price decline [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: It shows resistance at low levels but lacks significant positive support [21]. - **Urea**: Supply is high, demand is weak, and the market is likely to remain weak, with limited support from future demand improvement [22]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by port - related news. Continued attention should be paid to port inventory and Sino - US trade relations [23]. - **Pure Benzene and Benzene - Related Products**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate. Benzene - related products face challenges such as weak downstream demand and high - import volume expectations [24][25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and prices are under pressure [26]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC may decline weakly due to high supply and trade frictions. Caustic soda is expected to have limited downside [27]. - **PX and PTA**: Supply - demand expectations are weak, and prices are likely to remain weak [28]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Pay attention to the support at the integer level and the performance of the raw material market [29]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber is affected by raw material prices and trade frictions. Bottle - chip may face challenges due to over - capacity and weakening demand [30]. - **Glass**: The market is in a weak situation with high inventory and limited downstream demand. Consider low - buying opportunities near the cost [31]. - **Rubber**: Demand is gradually recovering, but supply pressure is high. It's advisable to wait and see [32]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is in a state of supply surplus, and it's advisable to short at high rebounds with caution near the cost [33]. Group 2: Agricultural Products Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - Agricultural product markets are affected by factors such as international trade relations, government policies, and weather conditions. Uncertainties from Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade relations and the US government shutdown have added complexity to the markets [34][36]. Summary by Commodity - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean supply is sufficient in Q4, but there may be a supply shortage in Q1 next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The market is currently in a data - vacuum period, and it's advisable to wait and see [34]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Oils are expected to be more resilient than meals. Wait for the price to bottom out and then consider long - positions [35]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Due to uncertainties in Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade relations, the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Consider using rapeseed products as a short - position in cross - product strategies [36]. - **Corn**: The price is at a relatively low level and may be approaching a short - term bottom. Pay attention to new - grain listing and weather - related impacts [38]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Hogs**: Spot prices are rebounding, but futures are weak. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, which may support prices in the second half of next year [39]. - **Eggs**: Spot prices are slightly rising, but futures are weak. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [40]. - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The market is weak due to Sino - US trade tensions, high supply expectations, and weak demand. It's advisable to wait and see [41]. - **Sugar**: International supply is abundant, and the domestic market is focused on the new - season production estimate. Pay attention to weather and crop growth [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price is oscillating at a high level. Although the spot market is strong, the expected high inventory may limit the upside [43]. - **Timber**: The price is weak. Supply is low, and demand is lackluster. It's advisable to wait and see [44]. - **Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. Pay attention to port inventory changes [45]. Group 3: Financial Products Investment Rating No specific investment ratings are provided for the industries in this section. Core Viewpoints - The financial markets, including stock and bond markets, are influenced by domestic economic data, international trade relations, and geopolitical events. Market sentiment and style rotation need to be closely monitored [46][47]. Summary by Product - **Stock Index**: The market is showing signs of recovery. Pay attention to economic data, trade relations, and policy changes. Consider increasing exposure to technology - growth sectors in the medium - term, but be aware of potential style rotation [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is in a repair phase. Short - term, interest rates may oscillate widely at high levels. The yield curve is expected to stop steepening [47].