Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend this week. After the positive news was released in China after the May Day holiday, iron ore briefly rose and then fell. As terminal demand weakened, iron ore oscillated downward. The supply of iron ore remained at a relatively high level, while steel demand began to decline. It is expected that the molten iron output has basically reached its peak and will gradually decline in the future. Iron ore will continue to be weak, and the short - term operation strategy is to participate with a short - bias [10][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trend Review - **Iron ore futures main contract trend**: Iron ore was weak and volatile this week. After the positive news in China after the May Day holiday, it briefly rose and then fell. With the weakening of terminal demand, it oscillated downward [10]. - **Iron ore spot trend**: The prices of different iron ore spot varieties are as follows: PB powder was 755, Super Special powder was 619, Jinbuba powder was 713, Brazilian Blend was 766, Mac was 735, and Newman was 748 [14]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Iron ore futures - spot price spread trend**: The main contract basis was 58.5, 05 - 09 spread was 62.5, pb - Super Special spread was 136, and Brazilian coarse - pb spread was - 13 [19]. - **Ratio of rebar to iron ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore rebounded slightly from a low level [21]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Iron ore supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines this week was 1.8332 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 62.62%. The supply of iron ore remained at a relatively high level [27]. - **International shipping freight**: The freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao was 7.74 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.8 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index was 1316 [30]. - **Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory**: Port inventory was 142.3871 million tons, Australian ore inventory was 59.9132 million tons, Brazilian ore inventory was 54.6716 million tons, iron ore arrival volume was 22.694 million tons, and trade ore inventory was 96.0272 million tons [33]. - **Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory**: This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 142.3871 million tons, a decrease of 637,700 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5895 million tons, a decrease of 3.76 million tons compared with the previous week. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 22 days, the same as the previous week [37]. - **Iron ore demand**: The average daily molten iron output this week was 245,640 tons, remaining at a high level. The average daily port clearance volume decreased significantly. Steel mills mainly consumed their own iron ore inventory. Steel demand began to decline, and it is expected that the molten iron output has basically reached its peak and will gradually decline in the future [40]. 4. Future Outlook - Iron ore will continue to be weak, and the short - term operation strategy is to participate with a short - bias [45].

Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The international pulp mills' latest round of price cuts for imported hardwood pulp and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Review - This week, the main contract of pulp futures, SP2507, rebounded from a low level [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Pulp Market Price**: As of May 8, the weekly average price of imported softwood pulp was 5,960 yuan/ton, down 2.55% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.59 percentage points compared to the previous period. The weekly average price of imported hardwood pulp was 4,175 yuan/ton, down 3.45% from the previous week before the holiday, with the decline rate widening by 1.34 percentage points. The improvement in downstream demand was poor. Base paper enterprises mainly made purchases at low prices, the shipment speed slowed down, and the pulp market transactions were difficult to increase [13]. - **Pulp Import Volume**: In March 2025, China imported 3.249 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 2.0042 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 616.87 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value from January to March increased by 5% and 4.9% respectively compared to the same period last year. In March 2025, the import volume of softwood pulp was 797,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.47%. The import volume of hardwood pulp in March was 1.4699 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.47% and a year - on - year increase of 22.19% [16]. - **Port Inventory**: As of May 8, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9731 million tons, down 3.33% from the previous week, with the decline rate widening by 0.63 percentage points compared to the previous week [18]. - **European Inventory in March**: According to Europulp data, in March 2025, the total inventory at European ports increased by 7.60% month - on - month and 25.96% compared to March 2024. Only the inventory at German ports decreased by 9.30% month - on - month. Overall, the inventory at most European ports increased month - on - month, driving the total inventory at European ports to increase in March [21]. 3. Future Outlook - Arauco of Chile adjusted its pulp export quotes for April 2025. The price of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was lowered by 55 US dollars/ton to 770 US dollars/ton, the price of natural pulp (Venus) was lowered by 40 US dollars/ton to 650 US dollars/ton, and the price of hardwood pulp (Star) was lowered by 70 US dollars/ton to 560 US dollars/ton, a significant reduction compared to the previous round of quotes. Considering the foreign inventory situation, the overall inventory at European ports increased in March 2025. The price cuts of imported hardwood pulp by international pulp mills and the inventory build - up at European ports create short - term negative impacts on the market. Domestically, the prices of base paper are weak, and paper mills mainly purchase at low prices based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery progress. A rebound in the downstream operating load rate may boost industry expectations to some extent. There is also support from the cost side below. It is advisable to monitor the stabilization of the market and wait for long - entry opportunities [32].

研究所 底部震荡，缓慢修复 ——国信期货有色（镍）周报 2025年05月11日 研究所 3 后市展望 研究所 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 1.1 行情回顾——内外盘主力价格合约走势 研究所 0.00 50,000.00 100,000.00 150,000.00 200,000.00 250,000.00 300,000.00 2020/12/31 2021/02/28 2021/04/30 2021/06/30 2021/08/31 2021/10/31 2021/12/31 2022/02/28 2022/04/30 2022/06/30 2022/08/31 2022/10/31 2022/12/31 2023/02/28 2023/04/30 2023/06/30 2023/08/31 2023/10/31 2023/12/31 2024/02/29 2024/04/30 2024/06/30 2024/08/31 2024/10/31 2024/12/31 2025/02/28 2025/04/30 镍期货收盘价(主力合约)(单位：元/吨) 数据来源：WIND 国信期货 目 录 CONTENTS ...

研究所 产区出货放缓，盘面高位回落 ——国信期货苹果周报 2025年5月11日 4 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 1 本周行情回顾 2 供给端情况 3 需求端情况 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 分 t1 本周行情回顾 一、行情回顾 研究所 本周苹果期货主力合约AP2510刷新前期高点后回落。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 供给端情况 供给端：库存量低于去年同期水平 研究所 根据卓创资讯公布的最新一期库存数据，截至2025年5月8日，全国冷库苹果剩余总量191.19万吨，处于近五年历史的最低位置， 其中山东产区冷库剩余量107.09万吨，陕西产区冷库库存量51.76万吨。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：卓创资讯 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 三 a 部 r 需求端：出货速度放缓 研究所 据卓创资讯统计，截至2025年5月8日，全国冷库库存比例约为14.47%，两周共计降低3.98个百分点，较去年同期低10.77个百分 点，去库存率为77.25%。存储商惜售 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, international oilseeds and oils showed a downward - oscillating trend, with domestic protein meal markets also under pressure. The short - term market trends of both protein meal and oils will be affected by factors such as international trade negotiations, weather conditions, and supply - demand relationships [6][71]. - In the protein meal market, the short - term outlook for US soybeans remains range - bound, and domestic soybean meal is facing pressure from increasing supply and bearish sentiment among end - users. In the oils market, international oils are affected by factors like geopolitics and production increases, while domestic oils are expected to show range - bound oscillations [134][135]. Summary by Directory 1. Protein Meal Market Analysis 1.1 Market Trends - CBOT soybeans fluctuated within a range this week, with a slightly lower price center. Domestic soybean meal futures showed a low - level oscillation. The 5 - month contract of domestic soybean meal rebounded after a post - holiday catch - up decline, while the far - month contracts were under selling pressure [6]. 1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 1, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 29% compared to the previous week and 10% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative export inspection volume for the 2024/25 season reached 43,461,547 tons, accounting for 87.5% of the annual export target [12]. 1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of May 4, 2025, the US soybean planting progress reached 30%, up from 18% the previous week, slightly higher than the five - year average of 23% but 6 percentage points behind the same period in 2024. The planting progress in southern states was relatively fast, while that in the northern plains was slower [26]. 1.4 Global Oilseed Market - StoneX raised its forecast for Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production to 1.684 billion tons, a 0.5% increase from the previous month and a 12.1% increase from the 2023/24 season. Argentina's soybean harvest has been delayed due to heavy rainfall [36][37]. 1.5 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, the domestic soybean meal inventory was 102,000 tons, a 5.57% week - on - week increase. The contract volume was 4.562 million tons, a 59.42% week - on - week increase [55]. 2. Oils Market Analysis 2.1 Market Trends - International oils oscillated downward this week, with US soybean oil leading the decline. Malaysian palm oil also showed a similar trend, while Canadian canola was relatively strong. In the domestic market, palm oil was the weakest, and rapeseed oil was the strongest [71]. 2.2 International Oils Information - Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to increase for the second consecutive month in April. Indian palm oil imports in April are estimated to be lower than normal, but may rebound in May. The proposed budget cut of the US EPA has led to concerns about the demand for biofuels [75][76]. 2.3 Domestic Oils Inventory - As of the end of the 18th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 1.9469 million tons, a 1.10% week - on - week increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 710,900 tons, a 2.92% week - on - week increase; palm oil inventory was 330,600 tons, a 3.45% week - on - week decrease; rapeseed oil inventory was 905,500 tons, a 1.43% week - on - week increase [91]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish. For rapeseed meal, short - term and medium - term indicators are bearish, while the long - term indicator is entangled. For soybean oil, all three indicators are entangled. For palm oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bearish, and the long - term indicator is entangled. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicator is bullish, and medium - and long - term indicators are entangled [134]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein Meal: The US soybean market will remain range - bound in the short term, affected by the USDA report, weather, and trade negotiations. Domestic soybean meal is under pressure from increasing supply. - Oils: International oils are affected by geopolitics and production increases. Domestic palm oil may test the 7800 - level support, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil are expected to show range - bound oscillations [135].

国信期货金融月报 关税扰乱 股指国债波动减弱 金融 国信期货研究 Page 1 2025 年 4 月 28 日 主要结论 股指：关税僵局 股指核心维稳 市场层面，1月份中下旬，股市走出触底反弹形式，2月份市场持续反弹， 3月份股市冲高回落，4月份初股市在外部冲击下大幅下挫，随后市场缩量反 弹。但是股市出现不一。外部冲击方面，特朗普掀起关税战，扰乱全球经济 贸易关系，引发全球资本市场大幅下挫。美国对中国关税上调幅度高到双方 直接贸易几乎中断的程度。国内方面，政策鼓励国内消费，稳定资本市场， 稳定房地产市场。股市稳定方面，央企、国企、地方国资委，部分券商、基 金、上市公司纷纷回购、增持等措施稳定市场。股市的资金仍然谨慎。一方 面，稳定指数的银行板块持续新高，一方面中小盘市场更加投机，且整体市 场呈现缩量状态，临近长假，市场规避风险情绪浓厚，IH、IF小幅度维稳， IC、IM或震荡偏弱。 国信期货交易咨询 业务资格： 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 邮箱：15051@guosen.com.cn 国信期货研究 Page 2 股指期货部分 1、股指走势分析 ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货 PTA 月报 PTA 供需预期双弱，关注成本波动 2025 年 4 月 28 日 需求方面：目前中美贸易战陷入僵持，外商多持谨慎观望心态，美国市场 订单下达推迟或暂时取消，纺织服装出口冲击较为明显。由于新单跟进不足， 且原料及成品库存贬值，4 月江浙印染、织造开工明显下滑，终端需求走弱导 致聚酯库存累积。今年国内消费同比虽有回暖，但不足以对冲出口的"断档"， 若贸易摩擦不能妥善解决，短期需求滑坡不可避免，聚酯工厂在库存压力下不 得不降负减产，这也将影响到上游原料 PTA 及乙二醇的消费，密切关注贸易谈 判进展。 成本方面：目前亚洲处于集中检修季，国内方面九江石化、浙石化及中海 油惠州先后停车，天津石化、福佳大化及福海创计划 6-7 月检修，而海外日韩、 东南亚及中东地区检修计划密集。2 季度亚洲 PX 供应减少，国内整体延续去库， 但因下游 PTA 亦有较大减产，且海外汽油裂差低迷，叠加贸易战事件冲击，PXN 价差被压缩至历史低位，未来继续压缩空间有限，市场存在阶段性修复机会， 关注油价及产业链开工变化。 综上所述：5 月 PTA 计划检修较多，下游需求存走弱预期，市场供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the prices of ferromanganese - silicon (MnSi) futures declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand situation of MnSi was relatively balanced, but the market still had accumulated surpluses. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, exerting negative pressure on MnSi [3][6][57]. - In April 2025, the price of ferrosilicon (FeSi) fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. The price of FeSi was affected by electricity prices, which were closely related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined [4][11][59]. - Looking ahead to May, the surplus of MnSi may be marginally alleviated, but the surplus pattern still exists. There is still the negative impact of Australian manganese ore shipments to be realized in May, so MnSi may remain weak. However, if the low price persists, the shortage of manganese ore will intensify again. There is a high probability that MnSi will experience a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi is still affected by coal prices. In May, it is still the off - season for thermal coal, and the decline of raw materials is expected to remain unchanged. After the production cut in April, the supply - demand situation of FeSi will improve. In May, it will mainly fluctuate, waiting for the peak season of coal - fired power in summer to provide obvious support [4][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **MnSi**: In April 2025, MnSi futures prices declined steadily, with the main contract shifting from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand was balanced, production declined significantly in April after rising in March, and the daily average production was at a low level. The inventory still increased, and the market had accumulated surpluses. Manganese ore inventory fluctuated at a low level, with a slight shortage. The Australian ore of South32 is expected to resume shipments in the second quarter. The absolute price of MnSi was low, and there was no obvious fundamental driver. Macro risks in April led to a general decline in industrial products, negatively affecting MnSi. The steel tender price in April was delayed and fell below 6,000 yuan/ton, and the basis fluctuated at a high level in April [3][6][7]. - **FeSi**: In April 2025, FeSi prices fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. FeSi prices were affected by electricity prices, which were related to coal prices. In April, coal prices were weak, and electricity prices in some areas declined. The prices of iconic steel mills for FeSi decreased month - by - month, and the basis increased as the price of FeSi fell [4][11][14]. Supply - Demand Analysis Policy Impact on MnSi and FeSi - In December 2024, the Lanzhou Industry and Information Technology Bureau carried out energy - saving supervision on the ferroalloy industry. In February 2025, the long - term contract shipments from Gabon decreased from 300,000 tons to 120,000 tons. Due to the impact of tropical cyclone Zelia, the mining in some areas of Oceania was suspended, affecting the production and shipment of manganese ore. Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The Chinese government will implement a new round of rural road improvement actions and adopt more active macro - policies [17][18][20]. MnSi Supply - In 2024, the MnSi industry cut production. From January to March 2025, the production was similar to that at the beginning of 2024, and it is expected to decline in April. In March 2025, the national comprehensive starting rate of MnSi production enterprises was 49.98%, with a month - on - month increase of 3.21%. The production in March was 899,115 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.85%. The production profit of MnSi was poor at the beginning of 2025, and then turned negative again. The industry had serious over - capacity, especially in the north. In April, the import profit of manganese ore was generally poor, and the spot price of manganese ore declined. As of February 2025, South32's Australian ore had not shipped, and the Australian ore of United Mining was also affected by the hurricane and could not be shipped in the second quarter. In March 2025, China's total manganese ore imports were 1.93 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.60%. The manganese ore inventory was at a low level in the past five years, and there was a slight increase in April compared with March. Although the current inventory was low, there would be no hard shortage in the market [21][25][31]. MnSi Demand - The demand for MnSi mainly comes from the steel - making industry, especially for rebar. In 2024, the demand declined significantly, and there were signs of stabilization at the beginning of 2025, with a year - on - year increase in March. In March 2025, China's rebar production was 1.8611 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. Due to the high cost of small and medium - sized manganese mines and the profit - protection measures of large mines, MnSi is not expected to maintain a long - term low price. In the short - to - medium - term, MnSi may be weak in May, but in the long - term, there is a possibility of a strong independent market in the fourth quarter [40][41]. FeSi Production Profit - From January to April 2025, coal prices continued to decline, and the cost of FeSi decreased. Before March, the profit of FeSi improved, and production increased. However, after April, FeSi prices continued to decline significantly, and the profit of using grid electricity to produce FeSi turned negative, so the production of FeSi decreased month - on - month in April [43]. FeSi Production - In March 2025, the national comprehensive capacity utilization rate of FeSi production enterprises was 60.57%, a month - on - month increase of 6.61%. The production in March was 502,740 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. However, the latest FeSi production has decreased significantly. It is estimated that the production in April will be about 440,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease but a year - on - year increase. The decline in FeSi prices is highly correlated with the decline in coal prices [46]. FeSi Demand - In 2025, the export of FeSi decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month in March. In March 2025, China's FeSi export volume was 31,523.207 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.46% but a year - on - year decrease of 15.45%. The main export regions are Asia. If the domestic coal prices continue to decline, the export of FeSi is expected to increase. The production of magnesium, the second - largest demand for FeSi, increased slightly at a low level in 2025. In March, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 0.5% month - on - month. In 2025, the steel production showed signs of recovery at the beginning of the year, but there were frequent news of production restrictions. From the current supply - demand situation, the FeSi market has limited room for large fluctuations [48][51][55]. Summary and Outlook - In April 2025, the price of MnSi futures declined steadily, and the main contract shifted from 2505 to 2509. As of April 25, the MnSi 2509 contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, down 5.66% from March. The supply - demand of MnSi was balanced, but there were still surpluses. Macro factors had a negative impact. In April, the price of FeSi fluctuated and declined, breaking the low since 2021. As of April 25, the main contract of FeSi closed at 5,704 yuan/ton, down 5.03% month - on - month. In May, MnSi may remain weak, but there is a high probability of a manganese - ore - driven upward trend in the third and fourth quarters. FeSi will mainly fluctuate in May, waiting for the support from the peak season of coal - fired power in summer [57][59].

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货贵金属月报 金银 关税冲击叠加政策博弈 金银冲高后震荡加剧 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 2022 年 12 月 25 日 2025 年 4 月金银行情剧烈震荡，COMEX 黄金和沪金分别创下 3509.9 美元/ 盎司和 836.30 元/克的历史新高，主因美国对全球加征 "对等关税" 激化滞胀预 期，避险资金大规模涌入黄金。然而，黄金冲高后受关税谈判缓和信号及美联储政 策博弈影响，COMEX 黄金从高位回落；白银虽跟随黄金阶段性反弹，但受全球制造 业疲软拖累，跟涨后再度回落，金银比破百并一度攀升至 105.26 高位。短期分化 下，白银依托光伏需求与库存低位积累修复动能，黄金则在关税与美联储政策分歧 中维持高波动，凸显避险与工业属性差异。 金银 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 展望后市，短期来看，贵金属市场或维持高位震荡格局。美联储五月议息会议 大概率维持利率不变，市场对六月开启降息的预期持续升温，若通胀数据延续回落 趋势，实际利率下行将进一步打开黄金上行空间。然而，地缘局势扰动叠加特朗普 关税政策的反复性可能加剧市场波动，COMEX 黄金主力合约或在 32 ...

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货螺纹钢月报 螺纹钢：短期情绪回暖 中期仍有压力 螺纹钢 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 螺纹钢：短期情绪回暖 中期仍有压力 宏观面，人民银行发布一季度金融数据显示，2025 年一季度整体社融增量 由政府债券支持，显示目前私人部门需求仍相对疲软，4 月开始我国面临更加复 杂的发布环境的背景下，政府加杠杆仍将在大类资产价格表现中发挥重要作用。 居民端信贷，中长期贷款同比多增 531 亿元，短贷少增 67 亿元，中长期贷款有 所回升，但短期消费需求有待修复。从价格表现来看，春节之后，市场整体表现 疲弱，我们将延续上一期报告的观点："价格压力持续存在"。相较于 CPI 部分 分项的积极变化，3 月份，PPI 环比、同比跌幅均有扩大。总体来看，工业品出 厂价格下行压力比居民消费价格压力更甚。 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可〔2012〕116 号 海外宏观，4 月以来，伴随特朗普政府对关税的不断加码，中美两方制裁与 反制措施的不断升级，截至目前，白宫确认，美国对中国关税总税率为 145%中 方宣布自 4 月 12 日起将对美加征关税由 84%提升到 125%。当地时 ...