1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating but suggests a wait - and - see approach for methanol investment [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol is expected to experience short - term narrow - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see. The current main factor influencing methanol's trend is the development of the Middle East situation. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the oversupply expectation of the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profit of the downstream industry and its limited acceptance of high - price methanol, if the profit further deteriorates, it may lead to large - scale maintenance, guiding the supply - demand balance. The 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2550 [1] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Price and Basis - **Methanol Futures Prices**: On June 19, 2025, the closing price of MA01 in Taicang was 2515 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton (0.60% relative change) from the previous day; MA05 was 2413 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.21%); MA09 was 2543 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (1.03%) [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: In different regions on June 19, 2025, the prices showed various changes. For example, in Guangdong, it was 2640 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (2.31%); in Shandong, it was 2310 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (1.09%); in Shaanxi, there was no change at 2122.50 yuan/ton; in Sichuan - Chongqing, it was 2400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (2.13%); in Hubei, there was no change at 2375.00 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 2005.00 yuan/ton, up 7.50 yuan/ton (0.38%) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 247.50 yuan/ton on June 19, 2025, up 47.50 yuan from the previous day [1] 3.2. Upstream Costs - **Coal Spot Prices**: On June 19, 2025, the price of Ordos Q5500 was 422.50 yuan/ton with no change; Datong Q5500 was 475.00 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (1.06%); Yulin Q6000 was 482.50 yuan/ton with no change [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: In Hohhot and Chongqing on June 19, 2025, the prices were 3.94 yuan/cubic meter and 3.30 yuan/cubic meter respectively, both with no change [1] 3.3. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: On June 19, 2025, the profit of coal - based methanol was 469.70 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of natural - gas - based methanol was - 440.00 yuan/ton with no change [1] - **Downstream Profits of Methanol**: On June 19, 2025, the profit of Northwest MTO was 535.20 yuan/ton, down 12.60 yuan/ton (-2.30%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1425.07 yuan/ton, down 138.50 yuan/ton (-10.77%); the profit of acetic acid was 300.97 yuan/ton, down 38.50 yuan/ton (-11.34%); the profit of MTBE was 198.60 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of formaldehyde was - 248.00 yuan/ton with no change; the profit of dimethyl ether was 560.00 yuan/ton with no change [1] 3.4. Important Information - **Domestic Futures Prices**: On June 20, 2025, the main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated at a high level, opening at 2523 yuan/ton, closing at 2543 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2908067 lots and an open interest of 909435, showing increased volume and open interest. All contracts had trading during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a certain Middle Eastern country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Assaluyeh are operating normally [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The report predicts that Shanghai lead will be in wide - range consolidation, and the rebound space of Shanghai zinc is limited. For lead, although the downstream has not entered the peak season and there is a risk of inventory accumulation, the shortage of waste batteries, increased losses of secondary lead smelters, and uncertain production start make the lead price have strong support below, and it will maintain range consolidation in the short term. For zinc, considering the supply - side suppression and inventory accumulation expectations, the rebound space of zinc price is limited, and the strategy still maintains a short - allocation view [1] Group 3: Lead Market Summary Price and Trading - On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.45% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of Shanghai lead's main contract increased by 0.68% compared with the previous day. The open interest of the active futures contract decreased by 15.35%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 22.69% [1] Supply - The production of primary lead has been stable with a slight increase, and the overall fluctuation is not large. In the secondary lead sector, the price of waste lead - acid batteries has risen continuously, the supply of recyclers is limited, and the stores are reluctant to sell due to the expectation of price increases. Secondary lead smelters are forced to raise prices, and some smelters have reduced or suspended production due to raw material shortages or cost - price inversions. The production start is at a relatively low level, and some enterprises have temporarily withheld products from the market due to losses [1] Demand - The current market is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and downstream procurement is expected to improve, which may reduce the drag on lead prices [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 287,425 tons, and Shanghai lead warrant inventory decreased by 1.41% to 43,761 tons [1] Group 4: Zinc Market Summary Price and Trading - On the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.95% compared with the previous day, and the closing price of Shanghai zinc's main contract decreased by 0.88%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 7.45%, and the trading - to - open - interest ratio increased by 2.68% [1] Supply - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to rise. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained flat at 3,600 yuan/metal ton last week, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee remained flat at 45 dollars/dry ton. The shortage of zinc concentrate has been alleviated, and the production of smelters is expected to increase [1] Demand - The terminal is in the off - season. After the decline of zinc price this week, the downstream production start and procurement have improved to some extent. The production start of the galvanizing and die - casting zinc alloy sectors has rebounded, while the production start of zinc oxide has slightly declined due to the weakening of some orders [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 127,475 tons, and Shanghai zinc warrant inventory decreased by 11.29% to 8,595 tons. As of June 19, the total inventory of SMM zinc ingots in seven regions was 79,600 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared with June 12 and an increase of 1,500 tons compared with June 16 [1] Group 5: Industry News - Shanghai is considering optimizing the "trade - in" subsidy policy for electric bicycles, simplifying procedures, exploring license - free replacement and remote authentication, and may extend the subsidy policy [1] - A large secondary lead smelter in North China has postponed its resumption of production due to poor raw material arrival, initially planning to resume production at the end of July [1] - As of June 19, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 6,000 tons, remaining flat compared with last week [1]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250620: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | | 单位 | 6月19日 | 6月18日 | 变化值 (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 民素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 UR05 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1725.00 1737.00 | 1736.00 1744.00 | -11.00 -7.00 | -0.63% -0.40% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1780.00 | 1789.00 | -9.00 | -0.50% | | 期现价格 | 国内现货价格 | 山东 山西 河南 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1840.00 1730.00 1830.00 | 1830.00 1730.00 1820.00 | 10.00 0.00 10.00 | 0.55% 0.00% 0.55% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 1830.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | | 东北 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term but have limited downside potential as they are already at a low level. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are unlikely to show an upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Prices**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price also remained unchanged at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 0.61% to 7,470 yuan/ton. The basis (East China 553 - futures main) decreased by 45 yuan to 630 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: On June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Social ordinary warehouses had 13.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons, and social delivery warehouses had 42.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, some northern silicon enterprises reduced production due to cost - price inversion, and southwest producers were hesitant to resume production. In terms of demand, polysilicon enterprises continued to cut production, organic silicon enterprises had a strong willingness to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - **Prices**: N - type dense material dropped 2.90% to 33.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feed material fell 3.08% to 31.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material decreased 4.76% to 30.0 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material declined 3.39% to 28.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closing price dropped 1.95% to 32,720 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply - side, silicon material enterprises continued to cut production, but some may add new capacity, with an expected slight increase in output. Demand - side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Other Related Products - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: N - type 210mm decreased 0.79% to 1.26 yuan/piece, N - type 210R dropped 0.94% to 1.05 yuan/piece, N - type 183mm fell 1.10% to 0.90 yuan/piece, while P - type 210mm and P - type 182mm remained unchanged [1]. - **Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC cells M10 - 182mm remained at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - **Component Prices**: The prices of single - crystal PERC components (single - sided 182mm, single - sided 210mm, double - sided 182mm, double - sided 210mm) remained unchanged [1]. - **Organic Silicon Prices**: DMC dropped 1.41% to 10,500 yuan/ton, 107 glue decreased 0.42% to 11,800 yuan/ton, and silicone oil fell 0.37% to 13,600 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association's meeting this week focused on "production limitation to maintain prices." Photovoltaic enterprises are expected to cut production more significantly in the third quarter, with the开工 rate expected to drop by 10% - 15%. A strict policy against "below - cost sales" will be implemented, and product sales with sub - standard quality will be rectified [1].

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/19 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/桶 | 75.14 | 74.84 | 0.40% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/桶 | 76.70 | 76.45 | 0.33% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/吨 | 633.13 | 625.63 | 1.20% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/6/18 | | 美元/吨 | 759.50 | 745.50 | 1.88% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/18 | 美元/吨 | 888.00 | 884.00 | 0.45% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/18 | 元/吨 | 4914 ...

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| | | | | 尿素早评20250619: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日度 | 变化值 6月18日 6月17日 单位 | | | | (绝对值) | 変化值 (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1736.00 1830.00 | 1726.00 1739.00 1810.00 | 10.00 20.00 | 0.58% 1.10% 2.37% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1744.00 | | 5.00 | 0.29% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1789.00 | 1774.00 | 15.00 | 0.85% | | 国内现货价格 | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1690.00 | 40.00 | | | | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1790.00 | 30.00 | 1.68% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 | 1830.00 | 180 ...

| 铅锌日评20250619：沪铅宽幅整理；沪锌反弹空间有限 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 2025/6/19 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 16,700.00 -0.15% | | | | | | 沪铅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 16,810.00 | | | | -0.30% | | -110.00 25.00 沪铅基差 元/吨 | | | | | | 升贴水-上海 元/吨 -30.00 - | | | | | | 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -31.32 1.87 | | | | | | -60.90 4.60 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 价差 元/吨 -10.00 10.00 | | | | | | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | | | | | | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 - -5.00 铅 | | | | | | 元/吨 10.00 10.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 | | | | | | 期货活跃合约成交量 手 36,557.00 21.87% | | | | ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250619: 地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 单位 2025/6/18 2025/6/17 | | | | | 变化值 | | | | (绝对值) | | | | | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2500.00 | 2455.00 | 45.00 | 1.83% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2408.00 | 2387.00 | 21.00 | 0.88% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2517.00 | 2455.00 | 62.00 | 2.53% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2700.00 | 2610.00 | 90.00 | 3.45% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2285.00 | 2275.00 | 10.00 | 0.44% | | 期现价格 | 甲醇现货价格 | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2570.00 | 2500.00 | ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Report's Core View - The silicon market has weak supply and demand, high inventory pressure, and no expected reversal of silicon prices. It is expected to operate under pressure at a low level in the short term, and the subsequent downward space may be relatively limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, and the transaction price has declined. It is expected that there will be no upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is mainly to short on rebounds [1]. Group 3 - Summary According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.88% to 7,425 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion. In the southwest production area, although the flood season is approaching, there is a lack of confidence in the future market, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment is strong, with insufficient willingness to resume production. The overall start - up has declined [1]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction situation, and the resumption of production may be postponed; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production to support prices, but the demand is weak. The downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and the actual transaction price has declined. The silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - **Price**: N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 32.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 29.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 1.88% to 33,370 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply**: Silicon material enterprises maintained a production - reduction situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting, the output is expected to increase slightly, but overall it remains within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and the market transaction is weak [1]. Other Information - The quotation of raw rubber enterprises in North China has started to loosen downward, and the market's mainstream quotation has shifted down slightly. It is expected that there will still be a small downward adjustment space in the future [1]. - From January to May, the output of new energy vehicles and solar cells increased by 40.8% and 18.3% year - on - year respectively. The power generation of clean energy increased rapidly. From January to May, the power generation of wind and solar energy of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 11.1% and 18.3% respectively [1].