Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a short - allocation view on zinc [1] Core View - The lead price is supported at the bottom and will be range - bound in the short term, with subsequent focus on demand improvement and macro uncertainties. The zinc price rebound space is limited [1] Summary by Related Indicators Lead - related Indicators - SMM1 lead ingot average price is 16,725.00 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract is 16,860.00 yuan/ton, down 0.71%. The Shanghai lead basis is - 135.00 yuan/ton, up 95.00 yuan. The Shanghai lead futures active contract trading volume is 29,996.00 lots, down 0.81%. The position is 41,457.00 lots, down 1.43%. The LME lead inventory is 287,450.00 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 45,503.00 tons, unchanged. The LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) is 1,976.00 US dollars/ton, down 1.52%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio is 8.53, up 0.83% [1] - The primary lead production is stable with a slight increase. The recycled lead production is at a relatively low level due to raw material shortages and cost - price inversion. The recycled lead finished product inventory is increasing. The demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1] Zinc - related Indicators - SMM1 zinc ingot average price is 21,940.00 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract is 21,905.00 yuan/ton, up 0.30%. The Shanghai zinc basis is 35.00 yuan/ton, down 55.00 yuan. The Shanghai zinc futures active contract trading volume is 124,389.00 lots, down 24.14%. The position is 105,668.00 lots, down 9.11%. The LME zinc inventory is 128,875.00 tons, unchanged. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 9,788.00 tons, down 1.79%. The LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) is 2,636.50 US dollars/ton, down 0.88%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio is 8.31, up 1.19% [1] - Hindustan Zinc (HZL) approves a 120 billion - rupee (about 1.39 billion US dollars) capacity expansion project, aiming to increase annual zinc production from 102 million tons to 200 million tons in the next few years. A northwest zinc smelter plans to add a 70,000 - ton zinc alloy production line by the end of the year and a second - phase project in 2026 [1] - The zinc concentrate supply shortage is improving, the refinery profit and production enthusiasm are increasing, and the production volume is on the rise. The end - user demand is in the off - season, but the downstream purchase has improved after the zinc price decline [1]

| | | | | 尿素早评20250618: 现货成交有好转 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | | 变化值 変化值 单位 6月17日 6月16日 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 山东 期现价格 山西 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1726.00 1810.00 1690.00 | 1683.00 1760.00 1600.00 | 43.00 50.00 90.00 | 2.55% 2.84% 5.63% | | UR05 | | | 元/吨 | 1739.00 | 1697.00 | 42.00 | 2.47% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1774.00 | 1723.00 | 51.00 | 2.96% | | 河南 | | | 元/吨 | 1790.00 | 1750.00 | 40.00 | 2.29% | | 国内现货价格 | | | | | | | | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1800.00 | 17 ...

| | | 甲醇日评20250618: 地缘不确定性高，建议暂时观望 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 变化值 指标 | 单位 | 2025/6/17 | 2025/6/16 | | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2464.00 | -9.00 | -0.37% | | | 甲醇期货价格 | MA05 | 元/吨 | 2387.00 | 2395.00 | -8.00 | -0.33% | | | (收盘价) | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2455.00 | 2464.00 | -9.00 | -0.37% | | | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2610.00 | 2587.50 | 22.50 | 0.87% | | | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2275.00 | 2302.50 | -27.50 | -1.19% | | 期现价格 | | 广东 | 元/吨 | 2500.00 | 2490.00 | 10 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short - term, but the downward space may be limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and the price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1]. Summaries by Related Information Industry Data - In the first quarter of 2025, global manganese ore consumption reached 5 million tons, a 1% year - on - year increase and a 6% quarter - on - quarter increase, mainly due to the growth of ferrosilicon - manganese production and inventory accumulation. The demand mainly came from China, while the global supply was stable at 4.6 million tons [1]. - Since 2025, India has issued multiple GW - level photovoltaic project tenders, with a photovoltaic project scale of about 7.1GW and a supporting energy storage system of about 2.2GW/8.8GWh, with an average energy storage duration of 4 hours [1]. Price Information Industrial Silicon - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closed at 7,360 yuan/ton, down 0.14% from the previous day [1]. - The prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions (such as Huangpu Port, Tianjin Port, Kunming, and Sichuan) remained unchanged [1]. Polysilicon - N - type dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 32.5 yuan/kg, polysilicon dense material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 29.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract closed at 34,010 yuan/ton, down 0.90% from the previous day [1]. Others - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component prices remained unchanged, while organic silicon prices (DMC, 107 glue, and silicone oil) decreased [1]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On the supply side, some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost inversion, and those in the southwest were hesitant to resume production despite approaching the wet season. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continued to reduce production, organic silicon enterprises had strong intentions to cut production to support prices but faced weak demand, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchased as needed [1]. Polysilicon - On the supply side, although some silicon material factories may have new capacity, the overall production is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market was weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [1]. Forecast and Strategy Industrial Silicon - The silicon market is expected to operate under pressure at a low level in the short - term, and the downward space may be limited. It is necessary to continue to monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short - term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds. It is necessary to continue to monitor the changes on the supply side [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will show a strong trend, with PX having a view score of 1, PTA a view score of 1, and PR a view score of 1 [2] Core View - The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks, and the recent significant fluctuations in oil prices affect the PX trend. Although the overall PX supply capacity has increased, the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still in a state of inventory reduction. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month, and the downstream polyester factories resist high basis prices. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere, with stable and falling supply - side quotations. The polyester industry chain currently has an unoptimistic demand and generally fluctuates with costs [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 17, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $74.84 per barrel, up 4.28%; Brent crude oil was $76.45 per barrel, up 4.40%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $625.63 per ton, up 0.24%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $745 per ton, up 1.98%; the spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $884 per ton, up 2.08% [1] - **PTA**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,782 yuan per ton, up 0.34%; the settlement price was 4,750 yuan per ton, down 0.54%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.16%; the settlement price was 4,956 yuan per ton, down 0.88%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 5,018 yuan per ton, up 0.26%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 5,020 yuan per ton, up 0.30%; the external price index was $651 per ton, up 0.77%. The near - far month spread was 206 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the basis was 238 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] - **PX**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,776 yuan per ton, up 0.27%; the settlement price was 6,730 yuan per ton, down 0.62%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,960 yuan per ton, down 2.41%; the settlement price was 6,922 yuan per ton, down 2.94%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,868 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR China Taiwan) was $862 per ton, up 0.82%; the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB Korea) was $863 per ton, up 3.11%. The PXN spread was $258.38 per ton, up 6.82%; the PX - MX spread was $139 per ton, up 2.58%. The basis was 92 yuan per ton, a decrease of 18 yuan [1] - **PR**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,982 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.37%. The closing price of the near - month contract was 6,082 yuan per ton, up 0.23%; the settlement price was 6,048 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged; in the South China market was 6,170 yuan per ton, unchanged. The basis in the East China market was 68 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; in the South China market was 188 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2 yuan [1] - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as DTY, POY, FDY68D, FDY150D, and short - fiber remained unchanged on June 17, 2025. The price index of polyester chips was 5,970 yuan per ton, down 0.83%; the price index of bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan per ton, unchanged [2] Operating Conditions - The operating rate of PX in the polyester industry chain was 83.07%, unchanged. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 83.80%, up 2.23%; of polyester factories was 89.99%, up 0.25%; of bottle - chip factories was 82.46%, unchanged; of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.33%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - The sales rate of polyester filament was 31.00%, up 1.00%; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 53.00%, unchanged; the sales rate of polyester chips was 48.00%, up 7.00% [1] Important Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA plant in the Northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20. The international oil price fluctuates around geopolitical risks. The PX supply capacity has increased, but the medium - term inventory is still decreasing. The PTA market has a slight increase, but the supply will increase in the month. The polyester bottle - chip market has a weak trading atmosphere [2] Trading Strategy - The PTA is in a high - level shock, with the TA2509 contract closing at 4,782 yuan per ton (up 0.13%), and the intraday trading volume being 1.42 million lots. The PX is greatly affected by crude oil, with the PX2509 contract closing at 6,776 yuan per ton (up 0.06%), and the intraday trading volume being 292,600 lots. The PR follows the cost, with the 2509 contract closing at 5,982 yuan per ton (unchanged), and the intraday trading volume being 54,900 lots. Due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the polyester industry chain is expected to have PX, PTA, and PR showing a strong trend [2]

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, ethylene glycol (MEG) fluctuated and strengthened. At the beginning of the week, the port inventory of MEG increased slightly, showing a phased low. On the demand side, the polyester production cut was implemented, weighing on market sentiment. Meanwhile, two large units of Hengli Petrochemical restarted, making the fundamentals even weaker. On Friday, affected by the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the crude oil price rose significantly, and the MEG market rebounded strongly driven by the cost side. - Next week's forecast: On the cost side, the oil price will fluctuate highly. If the geopolitical situation cools down, there may be a risk of an oil price decline. On the supply side, the start - up of oil - based units has driven up the overall start - up rate, and coal - based units will also resume later, making the supply side more relaxed. On the demand side, the inventory pressures of downstream products vary, and bottle chips have joined the production cut sequence. After entering the seasonal off - season, the terminal demand is not optimistic. In terms of port inventory, the port will still maintain a destocking trend this month, and the inventory of mainstream trading tanks will remain at a low level. - Overall, it is expected to operate in the range of 4,300 - 4,550 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1盘面及现货情况 (Market and Spot Conditions) - **Market Trends**: The overall increase was brought about by the rising cost. This week, the trading volume was 1.22 million lots, and the open interest was 272,500 lots (- 8,200 lots). The closing price of the MEG main contract on June 16 was 4,374 yuan/ton, up 118 yuan/ton or 2.77% from the closing price of 4,256 yuan/ton on June 9. The settlement price on June 16 was 4,333 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton or 1.55% from the settlement price of 4,267 yuan/ton on June 9 [7][9][11]. - **Spot Market**: For the domestic spot market, the high - end transaction price was 4,492 yuan/ton on June 13, and the low - end was 4,307 yuan/ton. The weekly price data from June 8 - 14 showed that the prices in Fujian, Zhangjiagang, and Dongguan were 4,361 yuan/ton (- 45.25 yuan/ton), 4,379.5 yuan/ton (- 54.25 yuan/ton), and 4,361 yuan/ton (- 45.25 yuan/ton) respectively. The foreign - market price was 514.5 US dollars/ton (- 3.38 US dollars/ton). This week's average basis was 94.20 yuan/ton, compared with 135.60 yuan/ton last week. The domestic and foreign markets of MEG remained inverted, with an overall level of 80 - 100 US dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 MEG装置、库存及生产利润情况 (MEG Unit, Inventory, and Production Profit) - **Unit Start - up Rate**: Due to the restart of Hengli Petrochemical and the adjustment of individual units between EO/EG, the domestic start - up rate increased from 54.35% from June 3 - 9 to 57.46% from June 10 - 16. The start - up rate of oil - based units was 60.95%, coal - based units was 51.78%, and methanol - based units was 62.40%. This week, the main changes in units included the restart of units such as Henan Yongcheng, Yankuang Rongxin, Hengli, and Zhongsha Tianjin, and the slight adjustment of the load of units such as CNOOC Shell, Haoyuan, Shenghong, and Far Eastern Union [17][20][22]. - **Production Profit**: The cost side increased significantly, and the profit shrank from the high point. The current profits of MTO, coal - based, and ethylene - based production routes were - 1,703.27 yuan/ton, 651.32 yuan/ton, and - 96.52 US dollars/ton respectively, compared with - 1,486.65 yuan/ton, 705.75 yuan/ton, and - 94.40 US dollars/ton in the previous period [29][31]. - **Inventory**: As of June 12, the MEG port inventory was 499,800 tons, a decrease of 50,200 tons or - 15.99% compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased by 37,000 tons to 180,000 tons, in Jiangyin decreased by 10,000 tons to 50,000 tons, in Taicang decreased by 3,000 tons to 150,000 tons, in Ningbo decreased by 8,000 tons to 80,000 tons, and in Shanghai and Changshu increased by 7,800 tons to 39,800 tons. The short - fiber and bottle - chip industries have successively joined the production cut, and the downstream提货 volume has continued to decline. From June 5 - 11, the average daily shipment of the main port in Zhangjiagang was around 4,790 tons, the average daily shipment of the two main storage areas in the Taicang direction was around 5,000 tons, and the average daily shipment in the Ningbo direction was around 4,500 tons. In addition, the statistical inventory of the mainstream domestic trade transfer tanks was around 18,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared with the previous period [35][36][38]. 3.3基本面分析 (Fundamental Analysis) - **Cost Impact**: Geopolitical risks suddenly emerged, and the price rose to near the high point at the beginning of the year. The cost of raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, methanol, and动力煤 has an impact on the MEG price [42]. - **Polyester Industry**: Polyester is affected by the negative feedback from the terminal but cannot transmit it upstream. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.69%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 68.79%. The market average prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,905 yuan/ton, 8,125 yuan/ton, and 7,180 yuan/ton respectively, down 1.62%, 1.14%, and 1.81% compared with the previous period. The average price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market this period was 6,506 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.17% compared with the previous average price. The negotiation range of polyester bottle chips in the East China region was 5,880 - 5,980 yuan/ton, and the average price this week was 5,935.00 yuan/ton, down 1.17% compared with the previous reporting period [44][46]. - **Terminal Demand**: The terminal regards the rise of raw material prices as a purchase signal, and the production and sales have slightly recovered. However, the weaving market has entered the off - season, the start - up rate has slowly declined, the terminal demand is weak, customer inquiries have decreased, and new orders for grey fabrics have been issued slowly. As of June 12, the start - up rates of water - jet looms in Wujiang, Changxing, and other regions decreased to varying degrees [47][51]. - **Polyester Production and Sales**: From June 9 - 13, the average weekly production and sales of polyester were estimated to be 100%. After downstream enterprises replenished a small amount of inventory at the end of last month and basically digested it last week, the downstream raw material inventory was digested to a low level this week. On Monday, polyester factories promoted sales. After the price reduction in the late session, the production and sales volume increased, and the production and sales of mainstream large factories ranged from 100% - 600%, with the median between 100% - 300% [54]. - **Downstream Product Inventory**: As of June 12, the inventory of long - filament products rebounded. The average inventory days of POY, FDY, and DTY were 17.90 days, 21.70 days, and 28.50 days respectively. The inventory days of polyester staple fiber in mainstream factories were 8.35 days, a decrease of 1.06 days compared with the previous period, and the inventory days of polyester chip factories were 11.60 days, an increase of 0.49 days compared with the previous period [55][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon have not improved substantially, and prices continue to be under pressure at low levels. The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and short - term improvement is difficult. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and prices are expected to remain low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Chain Price Review - **Industrial Silicon Futures and Spot Prices**: As of June 13, 2025, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract was 7,280 yuan/ton, up 0.75% from June 6. Spot prices in most regions remained unchanged, with only a few showing minor fluctuations [8]. - **Polysilicon Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the main polysilicon futures contract in East China was 33,695 yuan/ton on June 13, down 3.01% from June 6. Spot prices of various polysilicon grades decreased, such as N - type material down 2.82% [8]. - **Organic Silicon and Related Product Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of DMC was 10,950 yuan/ton, down 450 yuan/ton from the previous period; the average price of 107 glue was 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of silicone oil was 13,750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [8][91]. - **Silicon Wafer Prices**: Prices of all sizes of silicon wafers decreased, with N - type 183mm silicon wafers down 3.19% [8]. - **Battery Cell Prices**: The price of single - crystal PERC M10 - 182mm battery cells was 0.27 yuan/watt on June 13, down 2.55% from the previous period [8]. - **Component Prices**: Component prices continued to decline, reflecting weak market sentiment [73]. - **Aluminum Alloy Prices**: As of June 13, the average price of ADC12 was 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous period; the average price of A356 was 21,150 yuan/ton, up 2.42% [8][103]. 3.2 Cost and Production Factors - **Raw Material Costs**: The price of silica stone continued to be weak, and the price of silicon coal and petroleum coke was also weak. The average price of carbon electrodes was 6,850 yuan/ton on June 13, unchanged from the previous period; the average price of graphite electrodes was 11,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [13][28][30]. - **Electricity Costs**: The alternation of flat and dry water periods led to a decline in electricity prices in Southwest China, which reduced the production cost of industrial silicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: In the week of June 13, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises increased by 10 compared with the previous week. The production in Xinjiang increased slightly, and the production in Sichuan and Yunnan increased due to the adjustment of electricity prices [35][36]. - **Polysilicon Production**: In May, polysilicon production was 9.61 million tons, up 0.07 million tons from the previous month but down 8.09 million tons year - on - year. As of June 12, the polysilicon inventory was 27.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons. In June, the start - up of polysilicon enterprises increased and decreased, and production was expected to increase slightly [62]. - **Organic Silicon Production**: In May, the operating rate of Chinese DMC was 62.37%, up 3.79 percentage points from the previous month, and the output was 18.4 million tons. In June, the operating rate may decline due to maintenance in some regions [85]. - **Aluminum Alloy Production**: In the week of June 12, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 54.8%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous week; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.9%, unchanged from the previous week [100]. 3.3 Inventory and Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: As of June 12, the social inventory of industrial silicon was 57.2 million tons, down 1.5 million tons from the previous period; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 23.57 million tons, down 0.32 million tons. As of June 13, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 57,920 lots, equivalent to 28.96 million tons of spot [114]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, while demand is weak, and the short - term price is expected to range from 7,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market remains in a state of weak supply and demand, and the short - term price is expected to range from 32,000 - 36,000 yuan/ton [3].

有色金属周报(氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金) 美联储9/12月降息预期概率有所升高 国内传统消费淡季特征渐趋显现 www.hongyuanqh.com 2025年06月17日 宏源期货 研究所 金属研究团队 王文虎（F03087656，Z0019472） 董晓妮（F0287405，Z0017234） 张蕾（F03086068，Z0019377） 氧化铝 山西多数矿和河南露天矿仍未复采，几内亚政府撤销部分企业采矿权或要求部分运行企业停产，广西 计划开展非法采矿和涉重金属污染倒查十年专项行动，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比持平(上涨)， 或使国内铝土矿6月生产(进口)量环比减少(减少)但难改供需预期偏松； 山东创源三期和广西华晟二期100与200万吨氧化铝产能已建成并部分投产，山西晋中100万吨氧化铝产 能节能增效改造项目2月底开工且建设工期14个月，广西防城港25年3月开始建设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且 总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝6月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝日度平均完全生产成本为2880元/吨左 右； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项目100万吨产能5月上旬开启 试生产且预计25年实现满产（届时氧 化铝产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][4][38] Core Viewpoints - Methanol is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The development of the Middle East situation is the main factor influencing methanol's trend. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the expected surplus in the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profits of downstream industries and their limited acceptance of high - priced methanol, large - scale maintenance may occur if profits deteriorate further, leading to a re - balance of supply and demand. Given the high uncertainty of geopolitics, methanol may remain highly volatile in the short term [4][38] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From June 9th to June 16th, methanol prices rose significantly, mainly due to the Middle East situation. Most methanol plants in Iran are operating at low loads, causing concerns about future shipments from Iran, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices also boosted the energy and chemical sector [4][9][38] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis in East China has increased, and the 09 - 01 spread has also risen. Affected by the Middle East situation and low inventory at East China ports, the spot price in East China has risen significantly, driving up the basis. On June 6th, the basis in East China was 36 yuan/ton, and on June 16th, it was 116 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread increased from - 63 yuan/ton on June 6th to 0 yuan/ton on June 16th [12] 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - Coal - to - methanol profits have rebounded slightly, and upstream operation remains at a high level. As of June 13th, the FOB price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal was 618 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 6th, and the FCA price of Datong thermal coal was 535 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Under high - profit conditions, the operating rate of inland coal - based enterprises remains at a historical high. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 80.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.42 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 48.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.25 percentage points [14] 3.2 Inventory - The Middle East situation may affect future port inventory accumulation. The increase in arrivals from Iran had previously alleviated the low - inventory pressure at ports, and inventory at East China ports began to accumulate in late April. The change in the Middle East situation may affect future inventory accumulation. As of the week of June 12th, the inventory at East China ports was 33.63 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.37 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.08 million tons; the inventory at South China ports was 17.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.82 million tons; the inventory in the Northwest region was 23.71 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.73 million tons [20] 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - Attention should be paid to the possible recurrence of demand negative feedback. Methanol - to - olefins (MTO) is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for over 50%. Recently, the profits of coastal MTO plants have declined significantly, and the profit of inland MTO plants is also relatively low. If profits further deteriorate, the large - scale shutdown and maintenance of coastal plants in May last year may recur. As of June 12th, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefins was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 12.34 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally for olefin production was 85.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 28.33 percentage points [23] 4.2 Traditional Demand - The operation of traditional downstream industries has rebounded, but profits remain poor. Traditional downstream industries of methanol include acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, with consumption shares of about 5.59%, 5.65%, 4.84%, and 1.65% respectively. The operation of traditional downstream industries rebounded last week, mainly contributed by acetic acid and MTBE. However, overall, downstream profits are still poor, and their acceptance of high - priced methanol may be limited [30] 5. Strategy Suggestion - It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2300 - 2550 [4][38]