| 工业硅&多晶硅日评20250625：低位整理 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/25 指标 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 | | | | | 元/吨 0.00% 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 | | | 8,100.00 | | 工业硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 7,485.00 0.88% | | | | | 元/吨 基差（华东553#-期货主力） 615.00 -65.00 | | | | | N型多晶硅料 元/千克 33.50 0.00% | | | | | 多晶硅期现价格 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 31,085.00 1.54% | | | | | 元/吨 2,415.00 -470.00 基差 元/吨 不通氧553#（华东）平均价格 8,100.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 8,150.00 0.00% 不通氧553#（黄埔港）平均价格 | | | | | 不通氧553#（天津港）平均价格 元/吨 7,950.00 0.00% | | | | | 元/吨 不通氧553#（昆明）平均价格 8,200.00 0.00% ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/6/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/桶 | 64.37 | 68.51 | -6.04% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/桶 | 67.14 | 71.48 | -6.07% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/吨 | 586.25 | 641.75 | -8.65% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/6/24 | | 美元/吨 | 728.00 | 777.50 | -6.37% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/6/24 | 美元/吨 | 859.00 | 898.67 | -4.41% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/6/24 | 元/吨 | ...

祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 | 铅锌日评20250624：沪铅宽幅整理；沪锌反弹空间有限 | 今值 | 变动 | 2025/6/24 | 指标 | 近期趋势 | 单位 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 元/吨 | 16,725.00 | 0.00% | SMM1#铅锭平均价格 | 沪铅期现价格 | 16,920.00 | 0.65% | 期货主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | | 元/吨 | -195.00 | -110.00 | 沪铅基差 | 元/吨 | -25.00 | - | 升贴水-上海 | | | 美元/吨 | -24.26 | 4.23 | 升贴水-LME 0-3 | 美元/吨 | -59.30 | 3.00 | 升贴水-LME 3-15 | 价差 | | 元/吨 | -10.00 | 25.00 | 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 | 元/吨 | - | 5.00 | 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 | 铅 | | 元/吨 | - | -10.00 | 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, with a cumulative reduction of 220 yuan/ton for wet-quenched coke and 240 yuan/ton for dry-quenched coke. Steel has entered the off-season, and prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills have a resumption expectation, and their production enthusiasm is good, with a slight increase in molten iron output. Steel mills have sufficient raw material inventories and are still cautious in raw material procurement. Affected by environmental protection and inventory pressure, the coke enterprise's operation has decreased slightly, and after the fourth round of price cuts, the profit of coke enterprises has narrowed, and the intensity of production reduction and maintenance is expected to increase. Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate. In terms of coking coal supply, recently, due to stricter safety inspections and the arrival of environmental protection inspection teams, some coal mines in Changzhi and Linfen, Shanxi have stopped production, and the supply has tightened marginally. As the coal price drops to a low level, the signing and sales of coal mines have improved, and coke enterprises have appropriately purchased high-cost performance resources, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized. The inventory of coal mines has begun to decline, and the CR coking coal production area inventory index of China Coal Resources Network has dropped from 104.95 to 100.43. The online auction situation has improved, with a trading volume of 31.9 million tons and a non - successful bid rate of 9.4% yesterday. The price of Mongolian coal has fallen below the cost line, and the port clearance remains at a low level. The spot market of coking coal fluctuates weakly, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Coke Futures**: For example, J2601 closed at 1424.0 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan from the previous day; J2605 closed at 1450.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as J01 - J05 changing from - 23.5 to - 26.0 [2]. - **Coking Coal Futures**: JM2601 closed at 843.5 yuan/ton, up 22.0 yuan; JM2605 closed at 866.0 yuan/ton, up 18.0 yuan. Spreads like JM01 - JM05 changed from - 26.5 to - 55.0 [2]. - **Coke Spot**: The ex - factory prices in Xingtai, Lvliang, and Heze all decreased. For example, the Xingtai ex - factory price dropped to 1260 yuan/ton [2]. - **Coking Coal Spot**: The prices of Australian low - volatile and medium - volatile coking coal remained unchanged, while the price of Shanxi's optimal delivery warehouse receipt decreased to 764 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Data - **Coke Fundamentals**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.57 to 242.2, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24%. The daily average coke output of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.15 to 47.4, with a month - on - month increase of 0.32%. The inventory of full - sample independent coking plants decreased by 10.1 to 115.6, with a month - on - month decrease of - 8.06% [2]. - **Coking Coal Fundamentals**: The daily average output of 110 coal washing plants increased by 3.5 to 51.0, with a month - on - month increase of 6.70%. The inventory of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 14.1 to 237.4, with a month - on - month decrease of - 5.60% [2]. Important News - In May 2025, China's imports of coking coal from Mongolia and Russia decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The imports from Mongolia were 434.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.1%; the imports from Russia were 188.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 25.5% [4]. - On June 23, the national main port iron ore trading volume increased by 52.1% month - on - month to 118.20 million tons, and the trading volume of construction steel of 237 mainstream traders increased by 5.6% month - on - month to 10.30 million tons [5]. - On June 23, the coke market price was weakly operating, and the fourth round of price cuts was implemented. Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong reduced the purchase price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton [5]. Trading Strategy - Coke supply is relatively loose, and futures prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal supply has tightened marginally, and the spot market fluctuates weakly, while the futures market is expected to fluctuate [6].

| | | | | 尿素早评20250624:等待现货企稳 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日度 | | | 单位 | 6月23日 | 6月20日 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | UR01 UR05 山东 期现价格 山西 | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1686.00 1703.00 1750.00 | 1689.00 1709.00 1820.00 | -3.00 -6.00 -70.00 -40.00 | -0.18% -0.35% -3.85% -2.38% | | UR09 | | | 元/吨 | 1711.00 | 1730.00 | -19.00 | -1.10% | | | | | 元/吨 | 1640.00 | 1680.00 | | | | 河南 | 国内现货价格 | | 元/吨 | 1760.00 | 1820.00 | -60.00 | -3.30% | | 河北 | (小顆粒) | | 元/吨 | 1800 ...

| CCFEI价格指数:涤纶DTY 2025/6/23 元/吨 9200.00 9125.00 0.82% | | | | --- | --- | --- | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶POY 2025/6/23 元/吨 7500.00 7450.00 0.67% | | | | CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY68D 2025/6/23 元/吨 7450.00 7350.00 1.36% | | | | 下 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶FDY150D 2025/6/23 元/吨 7450.00 7350.00 1.36% | | | | 游 CCFEI价格指数:涤纶短纤 2025/6/23 元/吨 6890.00 6890.00 0.00% | | | | CCFEI价格指数:聚酯切片 2025/6/23 元/吨 6140.00 6120.00 0.33% | | | | CCFEI价格指数:瓶级切片 2025/6/23 元/吨 6260.00 6260.00 0.00% | | | | 装置信息 西北一套120万吨PTA装置计划5月15日至20日之间重启。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 国际原 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. Silicon prices are expected to remain under pressure at low levels in the short term, and the downward space may be relatively limited. For polysilicon, the fundamentals are weak, and prices are expected to have no upward trend in the short term, with a strategy of shorting on rebounds [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 0.41% to 7,420 yuan/ton. The prices of different grades and regions of industrial silicon showed little change, except for a 1.20% drop in the average price of non - oxygenated 553 in Kunming and a 1.02% drop in the average price of 421 in Sichuan [1] - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 3.42% to 30,615 yuan/ton [1] - Other products: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and organic silicon products remained unchanged [1] Export and Import Information - Organic silicon: In May 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxane was 4.66 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the total export volume was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1] - Industrial silicon: In May 2025, the export volume was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 27.24 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The import volume in May 2025 was very small, and the cumulative import volume from January to May was 0.52 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55% [1] Inventory Information - As of June 19, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3 million tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 13.1 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 million tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 42.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1 million tons [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: For industrial silicon, the start - up of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the southwest production area is about to enter the wet season with lower power costs, so the enterprise start - up is steadily increasing. For polysilicon, silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and although there may be new capacity put into operation, the overall supply is expected to increase slightly [1] - Demand side: For industrial silicon, polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts and the resumption of production may be postponed; organic silicon enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but demand is weak; silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient. For polysilicon, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials, falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, and weak market transactions [1]

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| | | | | 尿素早评20250623:关注回落后的做多机会 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 6月20日 6月19日 | 单位 | | | 变化值 | 変化值 | | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 期现价格 | 民素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 山西 | 元/吨 元/吨 元/吨 | 1689.00 1820.00 1680.00 | 1725.00 1840.00 1730.00 | -36.00 -20.00 -50.00 | -2.09% -1.09% -2.89% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1709.00 | 1737.00 | -28.00 | -1.61% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1730.00 | 1780.00 | -50.00 | -2.81% | | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1820.00 | 1830.00 | -10.00 | -0.55% | | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report suggests that due to the escalation of the Middle - East situation after the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and the Iranian parliament's approval to close the Strait of Hormuz, methanol may have further upward momentum. The main contradiction in the recent methanol market is the development of the Middle - East situation. If the geopolitical situation further escalates, the oversupply expectation in the methanol market may turn into a shortage in the short term. However, considering the poor overall profit of the downstream, the acceptance of high - priced methanol is limited. If the profit further deteriorates, it may lead to large - scale maintenance and re - balance the supply and demand. In the short term, affected by the escalation of the geopolitical situation, methanol may rise further. The expected operating range of the 09 contract is 2400 - 2600 yuan/ton (View score: 1) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Basis - **Futures Prices**: On June 20, 2025, MA01 closed at 2511 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from June 19; MA05 closed at 2423 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.41%); MA09 closed at 2529 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.55%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The daily average spot prices in different regions showed different changes. For example, in Taicang, it was 2745 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton (-0.63%); in Shandong, it was 2315 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (0.22%); in Guangdong, it was 2635 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.19%) [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was 234 yuan/ton, down 13.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3.2. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: Coal prices in some regions increased slightly, such as Ordos Q5500 at 425 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.59%); Datong Q5500 at 477.5 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.53%); Yulin Q6000 at 485 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.52%). Industrial natural gas prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. - **Profit**: Coal - based methanol profit was 469.7 yuan/ton, and natural gas - based methanol profit was - 440 yuan/ton, both unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO was 572.8 yuan/ton, up 37.6 yuan/ton (7.03%); the profit of East China MTO was - 1437.57 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan/ton (-0.88%). Among downstream products, the profit of MTBE was 176.8 yuan/ton, down 21.8 yuan/ton (-10.98%); the profit of formaldehyde was - 218 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (12.10%); the profit of acetic acid and dimethyl ether remained unchanged [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic**: The main methanol contract MA2509 declined. It opened at 2541 yuan/ton, closed at 2529 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2003085 lots and an open interest of 884703, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - **Foreign**: Currently, 11 methanol plants with a total capacity of 17.16 million tons in a Middle - East country are operating at a low load, and ports such as Asaluyeh are operating normally [1].