Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For成材, the market is expected to move in a sideways consolidation pattern, with a focus on macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - For铝锭, the price is expected to trade in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining - end news [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 - During the Spring Festival, short - process construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions will stop production and carry out maintenance from mid - to late January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped production on January 5th, and most others will stop around mid - January, with a daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - Yesterday,成材 prices continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3] 铝锭 - Macroscopically, traders analyze Fed Chairman Powell's speech to find clues about possible future interest rate cuts during the US government shutdown. The Fed's Beige Book shows that US economic activity has changed little recently, employment is basically stable, but there are signs of weakness such as more layoffs and reduced spending by low - and middle - income families [2] - Fundamentally, the profit of alumina plants is further compressed, high - cost production capacity turns to losses and stops production. After the rainy season ends, bauxite shipments from Guinea resume, weakening the support for ore prices [3] - From October, some northern electrolytic aluminum enterprises expect an increase in the direct supply ratio of molten aluminum due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, which will keep the aluminum ingot output low and reduce the market supply of spot aluminum ingots, supporting aluminum prices from the supply side [3] - In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing sectors adjusted slightly due to the National Day holiday, in line with seasonal characteristics but with obvious internal differentiation. The operating rate of aluminum cables declined, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips dropped by 1 percentage point to 68.0%, and the operating rate of aluminum foils decreased slightly [3] - As of October 16, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 627,000 tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons from Monday and 22,000 tons from last Thursday [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of iron ore has dropped significantly, and short - term fluctuations have intensified. Although recent policy disturbances have increased, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore itself is weak. The pressure of shrinking industrial chain profits and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upside of prices, but high domestic hot - metal production supports the price. The price will run in a range, and the inventory accumulation pressure at ports in October is not large [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for price decline - The sharp drop in iron ore price is mainly due to the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, which reduces market risk appetite and causes a collective decline in the black series. Also, the market has over - expected the impact of the US ship "special port fee" policy, while the proportion of US ship iron ore transportation is low and the increase in transportation cost is limited [3] Supply - The overseas ore shipment has decreased slightly month - on - month. The shipment of Rio Tinto in Australia has decreased significantly, while that of Brazil is relatively stable. The arrival volume has reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continues to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level. The daily average hot - metal output this period is 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). Although the blast furnace steel mills have continued a slight decline, high hot - metal production supports the iron ore price [4] Price - The price will run in a range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton [4] Strategy - Adopt range operation and covered call options [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke remain relatively stable, with no prominent fundamental contradictions. However, market sentiment is easily disturbed by macro - factors, causing prices to run under pressure [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Situation - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly. Although the risk of Sino - US tariff conflicts has no obvious direct impact on coking coal and coke exports, it disturbs market sentiment and increases the probability of price decline [2] - After the first round of coke price increase was implemented, the profits of coke enterprises have been repaired. Most coke enterprises maintain a normal production rhythm, with a capacity utilization rate of around 75%. During the holiday, the transportation capacity in the main production areas was slightly affected, but the overall coke shipment was in order [2] - Steel mills'开工 remains at a relatively high level, with the daily average pig iron output maintaining above 2.4 million tons, which supports the demand for raw materials [2] Coking Coal Market - The coking coal market is generally stable, with individual mine prices adjusting downward from high levels. Currently, the inventory pressure at the coal mine end is not obvious, supporting relatively firm prices [3] - The monthly import volume of coal is increasing. In September, coal imports were about 46 million tons, setting a new high for the single - month import volume this year. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 346 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%, and the decline continued to narrow. The import volume of coking coal also increased month by month [3] - It is rumored that after the National Day, Mongolia will increase the transportation capacity of coal through automated loading and unloading, adjusting the daily customs clearance volume from the previous upper limit of 1,500 to 2,000. It will be in trial operation for one month after the National Day, and the specific situation needs continuous tracking [3] Later Concerns - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views - For building materials (成材): Expected to move in a range with a downward - shifting center of gravity, and run in a weak and volatile manner. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support. The view is for volatile consolidation [1][3]. - For aluminum ingots: The price is expected to run in a short - term range. In the short term, the fundamentals are stable, but macro - overseas interference events repeatedly affect market sentiment. The price is currently in a high - level shock, and future attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - Production suspension impact: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel enterprises' production suspension during the Spring Festival is expected to affect a total of 741,000 tons of building steel production. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most of the rest will stop production around mid - January, with a daily production impact of about 16,200 tons during the suspension period [2][3]. - Real estate transaction data: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - Market situation: The price continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with no significant highlights in the near term, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little support for prices [3]. - Later focus: Macro - policies and downstream demand [3]. Aluminum - Supply - side situation: After entering October, due to the peak season of downstream processed materials demand, the proportion of direct aluminum water supply is expected to increase, resulting in low aluminum ingot production and reduced market supply, which supports the aluminum price [3]. - Demand - side situation: In early October, the overall performance of the aluminum processing industry was in line with seasonal characteristics, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The overall industry showed resilience, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side was lackluster, and the high aluminum price and order differentiation restricted the short - term upward space of the operating rate. High prices will gradually suppress downstream purchasing, leading to a marginal weakening of demand and limiting the upward space of aluminum prices [3]. - Inventory data: On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last Thursday and 58,000 tons from last Monday [3]. - Later focus: Macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The steel price is in low - level operation, with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the coil - rebar spread [3]. Group 3: Summary of Related Information Industry Data - In early October 2025, the daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises was 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase from the previous period; the steel inventory was 15.88 million tons, an 8.2% increase from the previous ten - day period and a 0.6% increase from the same period last month [2]. - The World Steel Association expects the global steel demand in 2025 to be the same as in 2024, reaching about 1.75 billion tons. China's steel demand decline will slow down, while developing economies such as India, Vietnam, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia will see strong growth, and European steel demand will have a long - awaited recovery [2]. Industry Events - Facing the challenges of "high costs, low prices, and widespread industry losses", the Sichuan - Chongqing steel industry held an anti - involution seminar on October 13, focusing on "anti - involution, price stabilization, and promoting synergy" [2]. Market Conditions - The finished steel fluctuated and declined yesterday, with a slight rebound in the afternoon and hitting a new low during the session. The low - level downstream demand in the industry still exists. The main short - term factor dragging down steel prices is the Sino - US tariff dispute, which has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets and varieties, including the black - colored commodities [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be concerned [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Iron ore's supply - demand contradiction is weak. The pressure of profit contraction in the industrial chain and the structural contradiction of finished product inventory limit the upward price ceiling, while the positive domestic macro - narrative provides support for the price floor. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract of Dalian iron ore futures trading between 780 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 104 - 107 US dollars/ton. The recommended strategy is interval operation and covered call options [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External ore shipments decreased slightly month - on - month. Rio Tinto's shipments from Australia dropped significantly, while those from Brazil were relatively stable. The arrival volume reached a new high this year, and the support from the supply side continued to weaken [3] Demand - Domestic demand decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. The daily average pig iron output this period was 241.54 tons (month - on - month - 0.27), higher than the average level in August (240.5). High pig iron production supported the iron ore price. The blast furnace operation rate in steel mills continued to decline slightly, with blast furnace restarts occurring in Hebei, and the blast furnaces under maintenance were mainly concentrated in Hebei, Northeast China, and Inner Mongolia for short - term maintenance, expected to resume production in two or three weeks [3] International Situation - Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on Chinese goods and export controls on key software and Boeing parts, but the possibility of the US raising tariffs by 100% is extremely low. It is expected that the two sides will restart communication on issues such as port service fees and rare - earth export controls, and related frictions may be alleviated periodically [3]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - Core view: The market is operating at a low level, with short - term downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] Group 3 Industry background - The Ministry of Transport will charge special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, 2025, which is a just measure to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese industries and enterprises and the fair competition environment of international shipping [2] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In September, the imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8% [2] Steel export and import data - In September 2025, China exported 1046.5 tons of steel, an increase of 95.5 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 8795.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [2] - In September, China imported 54.8 tons of steel, an increase of 4.8 tons from the previous month and a month - on - month increase of 9.6%. From January to September, the cumulative steel imports were 453.2 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6% [2] Market performance - The prices of finished products fell yesterday, and both rebar and hot - rolled coil reached new recent lows. The market was more affected by Sino - US trade disputes, and the market risk sentiment cooled down [2] - During the National Day holiday, the fundamentals of finished products were relatively calm, and the weak downstream terminals continued to suppress steel prices. There was a slight differentiation between rebar and hot - rolled coil, with hot - rolled coil under more pressure [2] Outlook - The market will operate at a low level with short - term downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the narrowing of the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [3] - Key factors to watch in the later stage include macro - policies and downstream demand [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to be in a short - term strong sideways trend, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and mining news [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - The production of short - flow construction steel enterprises in Yunnan and Guizhou regions during the Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - flow steel mills have shutdown plans, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [3] - Finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, and the price support is weak [3] Aluminum Ingots - In September, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.14% year - on - year and decreased by 3.18% month - on - month. In October, the proportion of molten aluminum direct supply is expected to increase, which will lead to low aluminum ingot production and support the aluminum price [3] - In the first week of October, the overall operating rate of aluminum processing sectors adjusted slightly, with obvious internal differentiation. The overall toughness of the aluminum processing industry remains, but the "Golden September and Silver October" in the demand side is lackluster, and the short - term upward space of the operating rate is restricted [3] - On October 13, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 650,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons compared with last Thursday and 58,000 tons compared with last Monday. High prices will suppress downstream purchasing and limit the upward space of aluminum prices [3] - Overseas interest rate cut expectations continue. With short - term macro - favorable atmosphere and stable fundamentals, the price is expected to remain high and volatile. Attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [4]

华宝期货 2025.10.13 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONOMO: 010 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 2025.10.10 | 2025.9.30 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2601 | 3103 | 3072 | 31 | 1.01% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 0.00% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2601 | 3285 | 3253 | 32 | 0.98% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3340 | 3330 | 10 | 0.30% | | 铁矿石 | 12601 | 795 | 780.5 | ...

华宝期货 2025.10.13 【华宝期货】有色金属周报 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025.10.10 2025.9.30 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025.10.10 2025.9.30 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2511 | 85910 | 83110 | 2800 | 3. 37% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 86675 | 83030 | 3645 | 4. 39% | | 品 | AL2511 | 20980 | 20680 | 300 | 1. 45% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 21020 | 20730 | 290 | 1. 40% | | 锌 | ZN2511 | 22270 | 21825 | 445 | 2. 04% | 中国:价格:锌锭(0#,Zn99. 995,国产,进口) | 22710 | 215 ...